Tag Archives: Jason Hart

Stat of the Day, 20th April 2019

Good Friday's pick was...

4.35 Bath : Bayshore Freeway @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Soon led, ridden and headed over 1f out, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner)

Easter Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.50 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Porth Swtan @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good ground worth £12450 to the winner..

Why?...

On a bumper day of racing, I've got a stack of data surrounding this 4 yr old gelding who's has won 4 of 7 since the start of the last Flat season and was a winner last time out 18 days ago.

That was here at Musselburgh over today's course and distance and despite being on the comeback from a 168 day absence and making a debut for his new yard and being ridden by today's jockey for the first time, he was still able to see of 3 of today's rivals in the process.

Yes, he's up 3lbs for the win, but he seemed to have more to give last time and should could on for having had the run. Chuck in a handy draw in stall 1 and we should be set for a good run for our money, especially at odds that just looked too long to me.

Numerically, he's suited to the task by already winning 4 from 12 on the Flat, including...

  • 4/9 with the word Good in the official going description
  • 3/5 in handicaps
  • 2/8 at 7f
  • 2/2 going right handed
  • 2/2 in April
  • 1/1 at Class 3 and 1/1 for new trainer Garry Moss
  • 1/1 under jockey Jason Hart, 1/1 here at Musselburgh and ultimately 1/1 over C&D.

Based on the small numbers of runners Garry Moss sends out, you'll not be surprised to see that Porth Swtan is his only runner anywhere today (more on this shortly), as he was 18 days ago and in fact this is only Garry's third entry since Valentine's Day 2017, but that aside, the ones he has sent here to Musselburgh have done well enough.

Overall, his runners are 8/21 (38.1% SR) for 11/13pts (+53% ROI), but this stretches back as far as 2008, so to avoid my decision being clouded by old data, I'm focusing on his record here over the last three seasons ie since April 2016, where his record stands at 6 from 12 (50% SR) for 13.67pts (+114% ROI), all in Flat handicaps.

Of this dozen runners...

  • those sent off at 11/8 to 5/1 are 5/9 (55.6%) for 9.4pts (+104.5%)
  • those last seen 6-25 days ago are 5/8 (62.5%) for 10.4pts (+130%)
  • males are 4/8 (50%) for 11.77pts (+147.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 10.16pts (+169.3%)
  • those with 1 previous C&D win are 3/3 (100%) for 7.9pts (+263.3%)
  • at Class 3, it's 2/3 (66.6%, the other was placed!) for 7.88pts (+262.8%)
  • those ridden by Jason Hart are 2/2 (100%) for 8.88pts (+444%)
  • and in April, they are 2/2 (100%) for 7.73pts (+386.5%)

...whilst those sent off at 11/8 to 5/1, some 6-25 days after their last run are 5 from 7 (57.1% SR) for 11.4pts (+162.9%).

But wait! As the patently unfunny "comedian" Jimmy Cricket was fond of saying : there's more!

Earlier I said that Garry only had the one runner today, well it turns out these solo travellers tend to more than pay for the diesel to get them to track, as since 2015 when having just one runner on the day, Garry is 17 from 87 (19.5% SR) for 63.9pts (+73.4% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 16/74 (21.6%) for 72.4pts (+97.8%) in handicaps
  • 15/69 (21.7%) for 73.4pts (+106.4%) from male runners
  • 12/48 (25%) for 77.9pts (+162.4%) within 90 miles of his yard
  • 11/49 (22.5%) for 72.6pts (+148.2%) at 11-45 days since last run
  • 11/50 (22%) for 33pts (+66%) on the Flat
  • 9/31 (29%) for 74pts (+238.8%) from 4/5 yr olds
  • 9/31 (29%) for 59.8pts (193%) over 7f/1m
  • 5/11 (45.6%) for 36pts (+327.4%) in April
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.19pts (+131.3%) here at Musselburgh
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.03pts (+100.4%) from those with 1 previous C&D win
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 7.67pts (+85.2%) at Class 3
  • and 3/13 (23.1%) for 3.87pts (+29.8%) with Jason Hart in the saddle...

...whilst from the above...male handicappers sent out on their own less than 90 miles from how after a break of just 11-45 days are 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 84.1pts (+400.5% ROI)... I could go on with more data/stats, but I don't want to bore you into submission.

So, happy Easter everyone, Matt's in the hotseat for Monday's pick, I'll be posting Tuesday's selection late on Monday night...

...and I'll sign off with... a 1pt win bet on Porth Swtan @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & SkyBet with plenty of 4/1 BOG widely available at 5.30pm on Good Friday (12.30pm here). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 4th March 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

3.50 Lingfield : Deep Intrigue @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (tracked leader, ridden to lead entering final furlong, headed towards finish and beaten by a neck)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arrowzone 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m1½f on tapeta, worth £2264 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding seems to love it here winning 5 of 18 starts, with the last win coming two runs ago off a mark of 59. He couldn't replicate that form under a penalty last time out, but now back to his proper mark, should give another good account of himself under favourable conditions, as from his Wolverhampton record of 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 4.18pts (+23.2% ROI), all at 8.5 to 9.5 furlongs, he is...

  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 3.19pts (+18.8%) in handicaps
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 3.19pts (+18.8%) on the Tapeta track
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.19pts (+58.5%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 6.19pts (+44.2%) at Class 6
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 7.19pts (+55.3%) off a mark of 50-60
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.19pts (+68.2%) wearing blinkers
  • and 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.18pts (+83.5%) in fields of 12-13 runners

...AND...when, like today, all of the above factors are in play :  4/7 (57.1% SR) for 13.19pts (+188.4% ROI).

Moreover, his trainer Kevin Frost is 19 from 138 (13.8% SR) for 31.2pts (+22.6% ROI) in handicaps here over 6 to 9.5 furlongs since 2014, and with today's conditions in mind, here's how he got some of those 19 winners...

  • 17 from 118 (14.4%) for 34.1pts (+28.9%) from male runners
  • 17 from 100 (17%) for 41.8pts (+41.8%) running 1 to 6 weeks after their last run
  • 16 from 55 (29.1%) for 34.3pts (+62.4%) who were sent off at odds of 5/4 to 8/1
  • 15 from 79 (19%) for 44.5pts (+56.3%) from those with 1 to 4 previous track wins
  • 14 from 103 (13.6%) for 43pts (+41.7%) from those racing in fields of 9-12 runners
  • 13 from 74 (17.6%) for 20pts (+27.1%) from those racing off a mark of 46 to 61
  • 10 from 59 (16.9%) for 45.4pts (+76.9%) from those aged 6 to 8 yrs old
  • 10 from 50 (20%) for 35.2pts (+70.4%) from those with 1 or 2 previous course and distance wins
  • and 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 8pts (+133.3%) with Jason Hart in the saddle

...whilst, since the start of 2016 : males + 5/4 to 6/1 + 1-4 track wins + 1-6 weeks since last run = 10/21 (47.6% SR) for 20.7pts (+98.4% ROI)...

...giving us a... a 1pt win bet on Arrowzone 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, Bet365 & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Sunday evening. There was also some 9/2 non-BOG in places, but if you can, do take the 5/1 BOG from Hills as I've done! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th August 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.40 Chelmsford : Reckless Endeavour @ 11/2 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up in touch, driven when not clear run inside final 2f and again 1f out, ridden and stayed on into 3rd inside final furlong, never threatened winner)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Acadian Angel 11/4 BOG

In a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good To Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly ran really well in a narrow defeat last time out, when a runner-up here over course and distance a fortnight ago, going down by just half a length. The form of that race has hopefully been franked by the fourth-placed horse, Zoravan (2.25 lengths further back that day), reappearing to win a Class 5 contest over this track and trip as recently as last Saturday.

Trainer JJ Quinn is in good form of late with 12 winners from 57 (21.1% SR) generating profits of 36.42pts (+63.9% ROI) for his followers over the last 30 days and these runners include of relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 11/46 (23.9%) for 34.6pts (+75.2%)
  • at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 : 12/43 (27.9%) for 50.4pts (+117.3%)
  • over trips of 5f to 1m : 12/40 (30%) for 53.4pts (+133.6%)
  • ridden by Jason Hart : 8/28 (28.6%) for 43.3pts (+154.5%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 6/23 (26.1%) for 14.5pts (+62.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 5/19 (26.3%) for 25.1pts (+132.2%)

...AND...in handicaps over 5f to 1m at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 : 11/26 (42.3% SR) for 54.6pts (+210% ROI), from which...

  • Jason Hart : 7/15 (46.7%) for 43.43pts (+289.6%)
  • Good to Firm : 6/11 (54.6%) for 26.5pts (+240.5%)
  • Class 6 : 5/11 (45.5%) for 33.1pts (+301.1%)
  • Jason Hart & Class 6 : 5/9 (55.6%) for 35.1pts (+390.2%)
  • Jason Hart on Good to Firm : 3/6 (50%) for 17.7pts (+394.9%)
  • Class 6 on Good to Firm : 2/4 (50%) for 12.5pts (+313.4%)
  • Jason Hart / Class 6 / Good to Firm : 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.5pts (+451.2%)

Meanwhile, more longer-term than the above, Mr Quinn's handicappers are 23/117 (19.7% SR) for 63.8pts (+54.5% ROI) here at Ayr since the start of the 2013 campaign and from these runners and of relevance today...

  • those last seen 6 to 45 days ago : 20/86 (23.3%) for 83.5pts (+97.1%)
  • competing for £8,000 or less : 19/83 (22.9%) for 70.25pts (+84.6%)
  • at 5f to 1m : 17/77 (22.1%) for 59.3pts (+77%)
  • and 3 to 5 yr olds are 17/76 (22.4%) for 81.3pts (+106.9%)

...AND...3 to 5 yr olds racing over 5f to 1m for a prize of £8k or less, 6 to 25 days after last their last run are 9/27 (33.3% SR) for 77.84pts (+288.3% ROI) with a 4 from 12 (33.3%) record at Class 6 that has produced 28.49pts profit at an ROI of 237.4%.

Finally (!), a quick note about our jockey Jason Hart, as since the start of the 2014 season he has a 21/110 (19.1% SR) record in handicaps here at Ayr and backing all of them would have resulted in profits of 84.3pts (+76.6% ROI)...

...which all points to...a 1pt win bet on Acadian Angel 11/4 BOGa price offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th August 2016

Wednesday's Result :

6.20 Stratford : Rossetti @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/2 (Hampered 1st, tracked leaders, led approaching soon hung left and mistake last, ran on well to win by almost 4 lengths)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.00 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ginger Jack at 7/2 BOG

Why?

Over the last two years, trainer Garry Moss has quietly gone about his business, but has been one of the unsung standout performers on the Flat from a fairly small string of horses.

The past 24 months have seen his runners win 18 of their 74 (24.3% SR) races for level stakes profits of 77.4pts (+104.5% ROI) and not only is Ginger Jack his only chance of further success today, the profile if this race seems to fit Garry's MO very well indeed, as those 74 runners are...

  • 17/67 (25.4%) for 78.4pts (+117%) turned out within 60 days of their last run
  • 17/63 (27%) for 68pts (+107.9%) in handicaps
  • 16/60 (26.7%) for 73pts (+121.6%) since the start of the 2015 season
  • 14/54 (25.9%) for 80.8pts (+149.6%) from his male runners
  • 12/48 (25%) for 77.9pts (+162.2%) over trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs
  • 13/33 (39.4%) for 33.6pts (+101.8%) priced at 5/4 to 13/2
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 38.7pts (+175.7%) on good to firm ground
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 5.64pts (+47%) here at Musselburgh
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 2.7pts (+33.7%) ridden by today's jockey, Jason Hart.

All of the above data would convince me to place a bet on Garry's runner in this contest, but even more so when I see that it's Ginger Jack representing the yard, because he also seems very well suited by the task ahead of him, based upon past results.

To date, this 9 yr old gelding has won 11 times from 63 Flat /AW contests, with his decent 17.5% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of just 0.85pts at an ROI of 1.35%.

Now I'm aware that this level of return isn't satisfactory, but a good win ratio allied to blind profitability is always the minimum requirement before I assess the suitability of the contest for my chosen runner.

And when we look closer at his 63 races in respect of today's outing, we find that those runs include the following of note...

  • 11/50 (22%) for 13.9pts (+27.8%) if fields of 5-15 runners
  • 9/40 (22.5%) for 14.3pts (+35.7%) over this 1m trip
  • 7/38 (18.4%) for 2.46pts (+6.47%) after a break of 6-30 days
  • 10/25 (40%) for 26.75pts (+107%) when priced at 13/2 and shorter
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 7.3pts (+34.6%) on good to firm ground
  • 2/8 (25%) for 3.73pts (+46.6%) since moving to Garry Moss
  • 1/1 here at Musselburgh, a course and distance win

...leading me to... a 1pt win bet on Ginger Jack at 7/2 BOG, from any of the ten or so firms all quoting that price at 7.25pm, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Musselburgh.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 17th August 2016

Tuesday's Result :

7.30 Wolverhampton : Mayasa @ 4/1 BOG still to run (Result/report to follow later)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.55 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Moonlightnavigator at 3/1 BOG

Why?

It's all fairly simple/straightforward today (for a change!). Trainer John Quinn's horses are in tremendous form winning three of eight in the last 10 days with four of the eight losers finishing as runners-up!

Moonlightnavigator had finished 3222 prior to his course and distance win here at this grade last time out, so he certainly wasn't inning out of turn, despite not being totally settled. He always runs his race and it is/hoped expected that the first-time application of cheekpieces will assist further.

Other than the extra headgear, Moonlightnavigator looks to be well suited by the race conditions on offer today, as from a career record of 4 wins from 18 on the Flat, he is...

  • 4/12 in fields of fewer than 12 runners
  • 3/12 at Class 4
  • 3/9 over the 1m trip
  • 3/9 after a break of just 7 to 18 days
  • 3/5 going right handed
  • 3/4 when priced at 4/1 or shorter
  • and 1/1 over course and distance

In addition to the above, jockey Jason Hart is 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 8.64pts (+108% ROI) on John's male horses priced at 6/4 to 5/1 in races of 4 10 runners, of which those returning from a break of 1 to 6 weeks are 4 from 6, whilst non-UK horses are 4 from 5 with non-UK horses returning after 1 to 6 weeks winning four from four.

Moonlightnavigator's the only course and distance winner in the field today, he just about brings the best form to the table, has a good to firm ground win in his locker and his yard is in good form...

...all of which points to... a 1pt win bet on Moonlightnavigator at 3/1 BOG, which was offered by both Bet365 and BetVictor at 5.30pm and to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Carlisle.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 12th June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th June 2014

Close, but not close enough at Yarmouth on Wednesday, as Katawi was just held off by a neck. She seemed to be travelling the stronger of the two main protagonists, with opposing jockey Martin Dwyer hard at work from a fair way out.

Our jockey chose to bide his time for an effort, possibly in the hope that the favourite would burn himself out, but Royal brave responded well to the pressure and just about hung on to beat our 4/1 hope, which had been backed in form our advised 5/1 overnight odds.

God's own country, the North West, is our next port of call for some evening entertainment in the shape of the...

8.10 Haydock:

Where I've just taken a safety-first 15/2 E/W bet (paying 4 places)with BetVictor about Eric Alston's, bottom weighted, 4 yr old sprinter Little Eli in this 5f, Class 4 handicap.

Little Eli comes here on the back of a narrow win at Musselburgh last time out, a little over seven weeks ago, when he made all to score by a neck holding off Roy's Legacy who has since won himself. Little Eli's effort last time was all the more impressive for not having had a run for over 7 months, prior to going to Musselburgh.

He is trained by Eric Alston, who doesn't send too many runners to Haydock, in fact, he has only had 55 runners at 20/1 or shorter here in the last seven years. 13 of the 55 (23.6% SR) have gone on to win, with the resultant 21.5pts profit equating to a 39.1% return on stakes.

He has called upon the talents of rising star Jason Hart once again to take the ride, just as he dis at Musselburgh last time out and it is expected that Eric will be looking to improve upon his record with 3lb claimer jockeys, as he has done in the past.

Over the last five years, Eric's record with a 3lb claim in handicap contests is 18/77 (23.4% SR) for 40.1pts (+52.1% ROI) with horses sent off at 12/1 or shorter and in the last two years that record has improved to 15/58 (25.9% SR) for 37.7pts (+64.9% ROI), helped quite a bit by Jason hart himself whose record from these runners is 9/41 (21.95% SR) for 20.34pts (+49.6% ROI) profit.

Jason Hart is one of the leading jockeys with a 3lb claim and has an overall record of 43 wins from 290 rides with his claim when sent off at odds of 20/1 or shorter. This 14.8% strike rate has, so far, yielded 115.6pts for an ROI of 39.9%. From these runners, 13/58 (22.4% SR) for 50.8pts (+87.6% ROI) was achieved on Eric Alston's horses.

Jason is riding at Nottingham in the afternoon, before making the journey to Haydock for just this one ride and in the past when he has only has one ride at a track he has a record of 24 wins from 221 rides (10.9% SR) for 52.5pts (+23.7% ROI) profit, often ensuring it's not a wasted journey!

Little Eli is, coincidentally, Eric's only runner of the day and when he has only had one runner out over the last three years, he had managed to saddle up 27 winners from 135 runners priced at 20/1 or shorter, a nice round 20% strike rate for 100.5pts profit and an ROI of 74.4%. Jason Hart has ridden 44 of Eric's sole runners, winning on 13 occasions (29.6% SR) and generating 82.5pts (+187.4% ROI) profit in the process.

Jason won aboard Little Eli last time out and that was without his claim in an apprentices handicap. The horse has been penalised tot he tune of 5lbs, but Jason's claim negates 60% of that and with the horse expected to come on for having had a recent run, there's a good chance he can win his fourth race in eight starts.

Little Eli is, as stated at the top of the piece, currently available at 15/2 BOG. Both BetVictor & PP are offering this price, but BetVictor are paying four places at present. I've been rattling the crossbar of late and I've a feeling that this one will shorten in price later, so it's an unusual safety-first approach today and a 0.5pts E/W bet on Little Eli at 15/2 BOG with BetVictor.

You can, of course, follow my bet, or you can go "all-in" with your preferred bookie, whose prices can be seen when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 8.10 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 17th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th May 2014

Some of you got 13/2 about Hab Reeh yesterday, just minutes after I'd gone "live" at 6/1 and his SP was 5/1, all of which meant he was a borderline case for an E/W bet and although the profit from him coming second was just 0.1pts, it is still a 10% increase on stakes, it prevented another hard luck story and kept the scoreboard ticking after a difficult week or so for SotD.

As it was, he gave his best shot, no complaints there, I thought the jockey rode a really good race, but we just found one better on the day, a fast finishing 28/1 outsider. The E/W option meant a second successive profitable day and I'm aiming for the hat-trick in today's...

4.35 Thirsk:

Where talented jockey Jason Hart will be expected to make good use of his 3lb claim aboard Eric Alston's 6 yr old gelding Barkston Ash, who drops back to Class 3 level today.

You're forgiven for getting bit of a deja vue feeling with this selection, as I did indeed select the very same horse exactly a month ago at Ripon, when he was a 9/2 winner for us and much of what I wrote about him that day still rings true, but with updated figures!

1. Eric Alston's record when dropping horses in class over the last 4 seasons in flat handicaps is 27/136 (19.85% SR) for 98.2pts (+72.2% ROI)

2. In the last two seasons when employing a jockey claiming 3lbs, his horses have won 12 of 41 races at 16/1 or under. That's a 29.3% strike rate generating a 50.93pts (+124.2% ROI) profit. From that 412 runner subset, Jason Hart's record is 5/20 (25% SR) for 29.23pts (+146.15% ROI).

3. When Jason rides for Eric, he has a 1-in-6 strike rate (27 runners from 162 runners) for 59.9pts (+37% ROI).

4. Barkston Ash is Eric Alston' s only runner out today and on the occasions when he's only had one runner, he has a 17% strike rate via 18 winners from 106 runners. These sole runners have produced 65.02pts (+61.34% ROI) profits, showing that Eric doesn't like going home empty-handed.

5. When those sole runners had won or finished within 2 lengths of the winner last time out and within 30 days of that run, they then went on to win 10 of 28 races (35.7% SR) for 37.2pts (+132.9% ROI) profit.

Barkston Ash is in good nick, winning at Class 4 level when we backed him a month ago, before being narrowly defeated in a Class 2 handicap last time out. He was only headed in the closing strides and went down by a neck. Thanks to Jason's claim, he runs off effectively the same 86 mark and conditions are set to suit him here.

He's 5/15 on good ground, including his last two efforts and all nine career wins have come from his 35 runs at this trip. When I starting compiling today's report, he was an 11/2 shot, he's now down to 5/1 BOG at best and money seems to be coming for him. To get 5/1, you might need to act quickly and I have just done so, placing a 1pt win bet on Barkston Ash at 5/1 BOG with SkyBet.

To see who's offering what price...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.35 Thirsk

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

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Stat of the Day, 29th April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 29th April 2014

Another placer yesterday to take the tally to 11 placed horses from the last 12 selections, but finishing third as a 6/4 favourite (advised at 9/4 BOG) doesn't improve the bottom line.

Yesterday was only Spectator's fourth race and it showed late on when he looked very green in the closing stages. 7lb claiming jockey Kieran Shoemark actually gave a decent ride, holding the horse up for a late run and he looked to have every chance with a furlong to run, but the greenness caused him to veer off a true line and he didn't produce any extra when needed.

The end result was a third place finish, a length and a half off the pace, but based on what I saw, both horse and jockey will be winning races fairly soon.

I, however, would like to be winning races now and I'm hoping to do so in today's...

6.50 Newcastle:

Where rising star Jason Hart claims 3lbs aboard Sirpertan for first-season trainer Mark Walford, whose charge can currently be backed at 4/1 BOG.

Mark Walford may be a new addition to the training ranks, but his father Tim is an old hand at this game and Mark has taken over the yard at Cornborough Manor, Sheriff Hutton near York after his father's retirement. Mark is training the same horses as his father did and having worked as his father's assistant, I'm fairly confident that there has been little change in the Walford M.O. which brings me to the first reason for selecting Sirpertan for this mile and a half, Class 6 handicap.

In the seven seasons (2008/13) prior to his retirement, Tim Walford trained 54 winners from his 305 runners in handicaps priced at 12/1 or shorter. That's a pretty decent 17.7% strike rate which yielded handsome profits of 111.7pts at Betfair SP (the closest approximation to early BOG prices that I have), which is a return of almost 37p on top of every pound wagered.

Mark has hit the ground running already this season with two winners from seven for 15.35pts, taking the overall Team Walford stats to 56/312 (17.95% SR) for 127.05pts (+40.72% ROI).

The second string to today's bow is the positivity surrounding the booking of talented claimer Jason Hart, who many of you will already recognise as one of Geegeez' jockeys to follow.

Jason is one of the best claimers around and his record when riding with a claim (3, 4, 5 or 7lbs) is excellent for an inexperienced rider. To date he has ridden 69 winners from 538 rides with a claim, a 12.83% strike rate bringing home 210.9pts (+39.2% ROI) profit from all runners. There are, naturally, some longer priced horses in there and we would tend to discard them for SotD purposes.

62 of the 69 winners came from the 367 horses priced at 12/1 or under, meaning that almost 90% of the winners came from just 68% of the runners and this 62/367 record is better than one-in-six at 16.9% with a profit yield of 111.3pts or 30.3% of stakes invested.

From the 62/367 record, the numbers with a 3lb claim like today currently stand at 31 winners from 179 races, a 17.32% strike rate generating 75.67pts profit, an ROI of some 42.3%.

Sirpertan was well backed on his seasonal reappearance just 20 days when he was stepped up in trip by some three and a half furlongs, but his hood slipped that day and he had to be pulled up very early into the race. We can also make excuses for his poor show last time out when he was upped to Class 5 off a mark of 58 and was running from outside of the weights in a much stronger heat than this.

Today's race looks like they've turned the clock back three weeks, it's a similar kind of contest to what he was expecting at Catterick for his first run of the year: it's the same trip, he's off the same mark of 50, the hood is on again and the ground is declared as soft, just as it was at Catterick.

Sirpertan has a decent draw in stall 2 and I'd expect him to attract attention in the market as the day progresses, which should make our 4/1 BOG bet look decent value later, especially if Jason Hart keeps him handily placed in the race, as I expect he will.

So, the play today is a 1pt win bet on Sirpertan at 4/1 BOG. A few firms are offering this price and I've gone with Bet365, but to see exactly who is offering what...

...click here for the latest betting on the 6.50 Newcastle

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

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Stat of the Day, 17th April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th April 2014

A runner-up at 10/1 finishing around three lengths behind an odds-on jolly us a pretty good E/W bet in my book and I know many of you made a small profit out of Stanley Bridge via that method.

My general (but not set in stone!) approach to staking for SotD is 1pt win for those runners priced below 6/1 and 0.5pts E/W above those odds. Unfortunately when I wrote Wednesday's piece, I could only get 9/2 about the selection and so it was a win only bet. And to be honest, I thought that was about right,

Once he'd gone beyond 6/1 early morning, I did add a footnote suggesting that an E/W bet would now be the way forward and I also placed another bet for myself to cover my first one! As it happened, he ran far more like a 9/2 shot than a 10/1 chance, but nevertheless he didn't win.

Many of us made a small profit, but the official record will show another "-1", something I'm seeing far too many of and I hope to stop that flow with Thursday's...

2.30 Ripon:

Where talented 3lb claiming jockey Jason Hart will ride the 9/2 chance Barkston Ash for trainer Eric Alston and I've a whole host of stats to support the selection!

1. Barkston Ash drops down in class for this race and in the 2011/14 period, Eric Alston's record with horses dropping in class is 26 winners from 125 runners, a 20.8% strike rate yielding 84.3pts level stakes profits, a return of almost 67.5% of all stakes invested.

The market is generally a good guide to how Eric's class droppers will perform as 19 of the 25 winners were priced below 8/1. 76% of the winners coming from just 41.6% of the runners as the sub-8/1 record actually reads 19 winners from 52 (36.54% SR) for 43.2pts (+83% ROI) profit.

2. Mr. Alston is also another one of those trainers who allocates rides to claimer jockeys very wisely. In the same 2011/14 period, a jockey with a 3lb claim has ridden 15 winners from the 73 rides handed to them. This 20.55% strike rate has returned profits of 42.85pts to date, a yield of 58.7% above stakes. Of those 73 rides, today's jockey Jason Hart has been in the saddle 36 times, winning seven times (19.4% SR) for level stakes profits of 37.35pts or 103.8% of all stakes.

Once again, we can follow the market with Eric's claimer jockeys with all bar one of the 15 winners above coming in at 10/1 or less. The record at 10/1 or under is an impressive 14/42 (33.33% SR) for 51.95pts (+123.7% ROI) profits with Jason Hart's not inconsiderable contribution being 6/23 (26.1%SR) for 28.45pts (also +123.7% ROI!)

The name Jason Hart should be becoming quite familiar to you now. He's one of the new crop of riding stars and is also one of Matt's Jockeys to Follow. The excellent article I've just highlighted gives you a full over view of Jason's record to date, but as he's claiming 3lbs today, I'd like to focus in on how he rides with his claim.

3. To date Jason has ridden 32 winners from the 186 times he's used a 3lb claim with that 17.2% strike rate generating 68.8pts profit to boot, that's the equivalent of 37p in the pound from all bets. As with the stats above, the market is once again a decent indicator of Jason's success, with the best results coming from those horses sent off at 10/1 or under, where his record reads 28/137 (20.44% SR) for 86.9pts (+63.4% ROI) profit.

But what about the horse, Barkston Ash?

Well, all 8 career wins have come at this trip, including a C&D win on one of his two races here in the past: he was third on the other occasion. He's 4/14 on good ground, but doesn't mind a bot of cut in the ground if it hasn't completely dried out by race time. He was actually third at Doncaster last time out in a big field (18) on soft ground and may well have needed that run to get up to full race sharpness.

He'll appreciate the better ground here, being a Kyllachy offspring, as those runners by Kyllachy are 25/178 (14% SR) for 54.65pts ( +30.7% ROI) in the last three seasons over 6 furlongs on good ground.

Hopefully I've not overloaded you with stats, but needless to say, I'm quietly confident about getting off the cold list with a 1pt win bet on Barkston Ash. I've taken 9/2 BOG from Bet365, but the same price is on offer at both Hills & PP, so why not...

...click here for the latest betting on the 2.30 Ripon?

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.