Tag Archives: James Fanshawe

Stat of the Day, 21st November 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

7.10 Kempton : Sir Prize @ 5/1 2nd at 5/1 (Chased leaders, driven and headway to challenge on inside over 1f out, soon ridden, stayed on and every chance throughout final furlong, just held off by a neck : our second defeat to jockey Hollie Doyle in as many days!)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.05 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Harry's Bar @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta worth £7,876 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding was a runner-up last time out, when beaten by just three quarters of a length behind a 99-rated runner in a Class 2 contest at Chelmsford over 6f almost 8 weeks ago. That winner has since stepped up to Listed company, whilst our boy now drops back in trip and class to run here off a mark of 91, suggesting that similar run to LTO should be more than enough.

That, of course, is supposition and I prefer to deal with facts, such as our runner's record on the A/W where he has never been out of the first three home in seven starts, including three wins and in those 7 A/W runs, he is...

  • 3/6 after a break of 3-8 weeks
  • 3/5 at odds of Evens to 5/1
  • 3/5 as favourite
  • 3/4 in handicaps
  • 3/4 over the minimum 5f trip
  • 1/2 at Class 3
  • and 1/1 on tapeta

He is trained by James Fanshawe, whose runners are 11 from 41 (26.8% SR) for 19.8pts (+48.4% ROI) on this track when sent off at odds ranging from 7/4 to 8/1, including...

  • 10/32 (31.3%) for 24.5pts (+76.6%) at 16-60 dslr
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 11.2pts (+48.7%) in handicaps
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 20.1pts (+91.2%) in 8-13 runner contests
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.7pts (+185.1%) with 4 yr olds
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.6pts (+129.1%) with class droppers
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.5pts (+163.9%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 11.7pts (+194.5%) this year

And with regards to those dropping in class, James' A/W handicappers dropping down a grade are 19/76 (25% SR) for 37.5pts (+49.4% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 15/41 (36.6%) for 35.2pts (+85.8%) after 3-8 weeks off the track
  • 14/36 (38.9%) for 19.8pts (+54.9%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 32.8pts (+117%) with 4 yr olds
  • 8/25 (32%) for 21pts (+84%) on October/November
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 14.5pts (+111.2%) at Class 3
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 6.7pts (+111.2%) here at Newcastle...

...whilst those sent off at 4/1 and shorter after 3-8 weeks rest are 12 from 22 (54.6% SR) for 27.1pts (+123% ROI) and these include..

  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 10.41pts (+173.5%) on Tapeta
  • 3/4 (75%) for 8.67pts (+216.8%) at Newcastle
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 4.53pts (+151%) this year
  • 2/2 (100%) for 5.53pts (+276.5%) on Tapeta this year
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 2.79pts (+279%) here on Newcastle's Tapeta this year

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Harry's Bar @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365 & 888Sport at 5.45pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th October 2018

Friday's Pick was...

5.15 Haydock : Lightning Attack @ 6/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The Tin Man @ 7/2 BOG  

...in the 14-runner, Class 1, Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes for 3yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £358691 to the winner... 

Why?

Much has already been written elsewhere about this horse & race by far more knowledgeable people than me, so I'll keep this fairly brief, as not to repeat too much information that you've already been given.

This 6 yr old gelding is in good nick (as always, it would seem!) having finished 141 in his three runs this season and with those wins coming on Good to Firm and also on Heavy, I'm not sure there's any ground he won't go on!

He won a Group 1 last time out, 6 weeks ago, when partnered by today's jockey Oisin Murphy for the first time and Oisin himself is in good form as I'll touch upon shortly.

The Tin Man has won 9 times (plus 2 places) from 19 starts to date and this includes 5 wins from 7 at 4/1 and shorter, 4 wins from 5 as a favourite, 3 wins (and 2 places) from 10 Group 1 efforts and 3 wins from 7 here at Ascot.

Now back to our jockey, Oisin Murphy who has enjoyed a pretty constant strike rate of around 20% over the last few months, actually winning 80 of 398 (20.1% SR) for 27.8pts (+7% ROI) over the last 90 days, including...

  • 4/10 (40%) for 16pts (+160%) at Group 1
  • 4/8 (50%) for 17.04pts (+213%) for trainer James Fanshawe.

And more generally, in Class 1 Flat races over the last 6 seasons, previous C1 winners with a career strike rate of 25% or higher are 37/174 (21.3% SR) for 167.6pts (+96.3% ROI) when running at the same class or up by 1 or 2 grades some 31-75 days after a top 3 finish LTO.

Stradivarius & Thomas Hobson also both fit this bill in the previous race, but with regards to our contest, those 174 runners are...

  • males : 27/119 (22.7%) for 162.7pts (+136.7%)
  • 31-45 days since last run : 24/108 (22.2%) for 162.5pts (+150.5%)
  • prizes of £100k or more : 20/87 (23%) for 164.1pts (+188.6%)
  • at Ascot : 13/63 (20.6%) for 20.2pts (+32.1%)
  • 12-17 runners in race : 12/45 (26.7%) for 177pts (+393.3%)
  • over 5-7 furlongs : 11/45 (24.4%) for 164.6pts (+365.7%)
  • and those with a 25-50% strike rate at the track : 7/25 (28%) for 11.3pts (+45.2%)

Of the above 7 criteria, Stradivarius hits numbers 1,3,4 and 7, whilst Thomas Hobson hits 1,2,3,4 & 7, but our pick today ticks all those boxes...

...so our advice is... a 1pt win bet on The Tin Man @ 7/2 BOG , as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.05pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

5.35 Brighton : Rastacap @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 6/1 (Led until halfway, soon lost place, eased over 1f out)

We continue now with Thursday's...

4.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG

An 8-runner, Class 4,  7f A/W Handicap (3yo) on polytrack worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

He's a 3 yr old gelding who has won both his handicap starts to date, both here at Lingfield over course and distance and both under today's jockey Dan Muscutt.

His trainer James Fanshawe is well known for being successful on the polytrack at not-too-distant Kempton Park, but he has fared well here too in recent years, despite not sending many to this venue!

In fact, since the start of 2015, he has been represented just 31 times in A/W handicaps here, but with 9 winners (29% SR) generating profits of 11.44pts (+36.9% ROI), it has certainly been worth his (and his followers) time.

And with today's contest in mind, those 31 handicappers are...

  • 9/26 (34.6%) for 16.44pts (+63.2%) when sent off at 7/1 or shorter
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 18.44pts (+76.8%) when running off a mark of 60 to 85
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 17.1pts (+95%) from male runners
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 11.88pts (+84.9%) as 3 yr olds
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 9.76pts (+75%) when ridden by Dan Muscutt
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 10.3pts (+128.7%) over this 7f course and distance
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.17pts (+52.1%) in 3yo only races
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 3.7pts (+46.3%) as LTO winners
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 6.79pts (+113.1%) at Class 4...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG which was available from half a dozen firms at 5.50pm on Wednesday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th November 2016

Thursday's Result :

5.55 Chelmsford : Ninety Years Young @ 3/1 BOG - 2nd at 6/4 (Bumped start towards rear, ridden and headway approaching final furlong, ran on to go 2nd towards finish)

Friday's pick goes in the...

1.20 Lingfield

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Indulged @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

Trainer James Fanshawe is 6 from 25 in the last 30 days and that 24% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 13.67pts at an ROI of 54.7%, from which...

  • handicappers are 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.11pts (+67.6%)
  • A/W runners are 3/11 (27.3%) for 4.17pts (+37.9%)
  • and 3 yr olds are 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.11pts (+123.5%)

Longer-term, his record in A/W handicaps is 84/366 (23% SR) for 119.9pts (+32.8% ROI) since 2009 with those priced at 8/1 and shorter producing a profit every year contributing to figures of 78/297 (26.3% SR) for 96pts (+32.3% ROI).

And of these 297 runners...

  • 3 yr olds are 43/165 (26.1%) for 40.3pts (+24.5%)
  • females are 34/116 (29.3%) for 46.4pts (+40%)
  • 3yr old females are 23/76 (30.3%) for 31.9pts (+41.9%)
  • Class 3 runners are 12/34 (35.3%) for 28pts (+82.3%)

James is well known for being successful at Kempton, but he's no slouch here at Lingfield either, especially if there's market interest in his runners, as since the start of 2013, those priced at 4/1 and shorter here have won 7 of 18 (38.9%) for 6.2pts (+34.5%) profit, with females winning 5 of 10 (50%) for 3.94pts (+39.4%) and 3 yr olds are 3 from 6 (50%) for 6pts (+100%).

...hence...a 1pt win bet on Indulged at a widely available 4/1 BOG as of 5.40pm Thursday, although my preference is Bet365. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

SotD : 08/12/14

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th December 2014

I was, of course, away for the weekend and I'd rather talk about Matt's pick on Saturday than my 8 hour delay sat in the airport on Friday night!

Dunraven Storm, for the record, put up a good display and looked good value for his eventual 5/1 SP, undoubtedly lengthen ed by the presence of an odds on favourite in the field. Irish Saint was that jolly, but our runner beat him by a head, but ended up a couple of lengths shy of the other Nicholls' runner Vibrato Valtat who stayed on strongest.

Ifs and buts don't win races, but had our runner not made a mess of the last fence and had he not been subsequently sandwiched on the run-in, things may well have been very different.

The start of a new week and we do like to kick off with a winner, where possible and so my quest leads us to the...

4.10 Kempton:

Where James Fanshawe's Zman Awal is rated a 9/4 BOG chance in this Class 4, 6 furlong, 3yo+ A/W handicap. It has been well versed by myself in this column and stat followers in general that James has a really good record here at Kempton, but I think it would a little lazy to build my piece around that well-worn path. Of course, my reasons for selection will refer back to Kempton, but only as reaffirmation, if you will.

First up, is the main reason why I like to back James Fanshawe's horses and the simple fact is that...

You can back James blindly and make a profit!

If you backed every single Fanshawe runner since the start of 2011, you'd have hit 146 winners from 930 bets and that 15.7% strike rate would have seen you collect £1802 winnings from £10 level stakes bets, a return of 19.4% from your £9300 investment, which is fantastic from blind backing, as long as you're patient enough to ride out the losing runs which inevitably come. (I know you are, otherwise you wouldn't be a geegeez reader).

On the All-Weather, the record is 71/362 (19.6% SR) for 50.8pts (+14% ROI), whilst all handicap (turf & A/W) runners have won 87 from 493 races (17.7% SR) for 73pts (+14.8% ROI) profit.

In A/W handicaps, his string have won 43 from 202 races (21.3% SR) for 6.3pts profit (+32.8% ROI) and as we're playing at the sharper end of the market today, it's interesting to note that those running at prices shorter than 7/2 have won 22/56 (39.3% SR) for 18.7pts (+33.4% ROI). Here at Kempton that figure is 15/38 (39.5% SR) for 16.8pts (+44.2% ROI). 

Zman Awal steps up in class today...

Since the start of 2009, James Fanshawe has stepped 199 handicappers up in class and the 41 winners represents a very healthy strike rate of 20.6% and good profits of 83.9pts at an ROI of 42.2%. On the A/W, those numbers become 17/55 (30.9% SR) for 6.15pts (+111.8% ROI).

Once again, we should note that those well-fancied runners go well with the sub-7/2 shots winning 9/15 (60% SR) for 16.7pts (+111.2% ROI) profits with a record here at Kempton of 8/9 (88.9% SR) for 20.2pts (+224.5% ROI)

This is a 3yo+ handicap contest today...

An area where James does particularly well, especially with horses running at the same class or up 1 class from last time out and also runningat the same trip or within 1 furlong of their last outing. Such horses have won 17 out 81 races (21%SR) since 2009 for level stakes profits of 24.8pts (+30.7% ROI) with those sent off in the Evens to 5/1 price band boasting a 12/41 (29.3% SR) record that has generated 12.2pts profit at an ROI of 29.7%. These shorter priced runners are 10/28 (35.7% SR) for 16.9pts (+60.2% ROI) here at Kempton.

Zman Awal was last seen 38 days days getting collared late on by the faster-finishing Bint Dandy (runs in the 2.30 Lingfield at one class higher than this, so might be a pointer) to be beaten by a neck over 7 furlongs at Wolverhampton. The drop back in trip should therefore remove any vulnerability to a "finisher" and there's some form to follow with Bint Dandy subsequently running to within half a length of the winner next time out despite a 5lb rise in the weights.

The third-placed horse from that run at Wolverhampton, Don't Be, was almost three lengths behind Zman Awal, but she has since gone on to win both her starts since that day. Our runner is still an unexposed type after just six starts (unraced as a 2yr old) and I think the drop back in trip will be to her liking. She's run on this surface a couple of times before and that experience will help too.

Zman Awal is a little bit shorter than my usual SotD picks at 9/4 BOG, but she does stand out as a strong contender, especially on a Monday, a day when viable stats are often in short supply! The good news, however, about the price is that it's pretty much available at every bookie, so we'll all be getting the same!

I've placed my 1pt win bet on Zman Awal at 9/4 BOG with the Betfair Sportsbook, but to see your preferred bookies' prices...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.10 Kempton 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 20th November 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th November 2014

In the three years that Matt and myself have been doing SotD, you can probably count on one hand the number of times we've been critical of the jockeys riding our selections. The truth is that we are both full of admiration and respect for what they do, but sometimes they get it quite wrong and I can't help but feel that's what happened at Kempton with James Doyle on Wednesday evening.

For us to back a horse of Captain Cat's calibre at 3/1 BOG and see him sent off at 6/5 made me feel that we were going to be having a very good day, but the horse was held up so far off the pace it was almost ridiculous. Yes, he likes to come later in the piece, but by the time James asked him to go and win the race, he'd already lost it.

End result, 4th at 6/5, a length and a half shy of winning a race he should have taken relatively comfortably. I'm not talking through my pocket here either, I'm genuinely frustrated at seeing a horse not being given the chance to fulfill its potential.

Anyway rant/moan over with, I need a winner after that episode, and so I now turn (with an open mind! :D) towards the...

6.40 Kempton:

Because if at first you don't succeed, you are to try again!

Thursday's Kempton hopeful is Knight Owl, currently priced at 5/1 BOG and to be ridden by George Baker for the James Fanshawe yard.

Let's start with the trainer's overall record...

Since the start of 2011, if you'd placed a £10 bet on each of Mr Fanshawe's runners, you'd now be sitting on level stakes profits of £1852, courtesy of backing 146 winners from 925 runners at a strike rate of 15.8% with that £1852 profit equating to a 20% return on your money.

The original 925 runners can now be broken down as follows...

On the A/W : 71/358 (19.8% SR) for 54.8pts (+15.3% ROI) profit.
In handicaps : 87/491 (17.7% SR) for 75pts (+15.3% ROI)
A/W Handicaps : 43/200 (21.5% SR) for 68.3pts (+34.1% ROI) and...
A/W 3yo+ hcps : 19/97 (19.6% SR) for 34pts (+35.1% ROI)

He also has a particularly good record here at Kempton...

...and from the 358 overall A/W runners, the figures here at Kempton are as follows:

On the A/W : 54/246 (22% SR) for 98.3pts (+40% ROI) profit.
A/W Handicaps : 33/140 (23.6% SR) for 90.7pts (+64.8% ROI) and...
A/W 3yo+ hcps : 14/66 (21.2% SR) for 45.9pts (+69.5% ROI)

He also does well in these 3yo+ handicaps under more specialised circumstances...

He's one of a number of trainers I follow with runners fitting the following criteria : A/W 3yo+ hcps with male runners aged 3 to 7. These runners should be running at the same class or within 1 class as their last run, at the same trip or within 2 furlongs of their last run. Since the start of 2009, James Fanshawe has had 116 such runners with 26 winners (22.4% SR) yielding 54.8pts profit at an ROI of 47.2%.

Of these 116 runners, the breakdown fitting today's selection is as below...

4 year olds : 12/42 (28.6% SR) for 39.9pts (+94.9% ROI)
Same class as LTO : 12/69 (17.4% SR) for 18.7pts (+27.1% ROI)
Same trip as LTO : 14/60 (23.3% SR) for 11.5pts (+19.1% ROI)
In Class 3 races : 3/13 (23.1% SR) for 3.2pts (+24.4% ROI)
Over today's 1 mile trip : 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 10.7pts (+44.4% ROI)
Here at Kempton : 20/75 (26.7% SR) for 70.9pts (+94.5% ROI)

It's an admittedly very small sample, but 4 yr olds running at the same class and trip as LTO in a 3yp+ A/W hcp at odds of 2/1 to 6/1 are 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 8.4pts (+92.9% ROI) profit to date!

Jockey George Baker is no mug around this track either..

...with an excellent record totally independent of James Fanshawe that reads 77 winners from 473 (16.3% SR) handicap contests here at Kempton since the start of 2011. These winners have generated level stakes profits of 133.7pts at an ROI of 28.3%, which is very good going indeed.

And what about the horse, Knight Owl?

He was a winner in a 1m handicap at Redcar a couple of months ago and last time out he finished fourth over course and distance. He really caught the eye with the way he finished that day, getting within a length and a half of thewinner despite having far too much work to do late on. He was held up, then couldn't get out and once out, got bumped again before running on strongly. Of the three that beat him that day, only Heisman (0.75 lengths ahead) has reappeared, but that was a winning return over the same trip at Lingfield last Friday.

If the form holds out and Knight Owl keeps out of trouble closer to the pace, then I see no reason why he can't land his first A/W success here at Kempton. So, the call is a 1pt win bet on Knight Owl at 5/1 BOG. I'm on with Betfred, but with Coral and Betfair Sportsbook offering the same price, there's no reason to miss out here. To see the full market...

...click here for the latest betting on the 6.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 5th September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th September 2014

We had to be patient recently waiting for our next winner, but that patience has now been rewarded with back to back successes.

The odds on jolly was heavily backed at Wolverhampton from an overnight best price of 10/11 right in to 1/2 at the off! I thought the value would lie with Charlotte's Day at 9/2 (4/1 generally) but I was quite shocked to see her at 8/1 just before the off. In fact I had another 0.5pts E/W on her at that price, so help cover the outlay on the original SotD bet, were she to finish second.

As it was, she was the most comfortable of five runners, who all looked like they were driven at one point or another, but our jockey Luke Morris had it all under control, as he got home by a good 4 lengths in the end, beating the fav by 10 lengths in the process.

11.5pts profit in the last two days puts a different complexion on this punting week and I'm looking to complete a hat-trick with victory in Friday's...

8.50 Kempton:

And another late spin on the A/W (long-standing readers will remember that I do quite a bit of A/W betting at this time of year), where Gone Dutch looks good value for his current 6/1 BOG price tag for a variety of reasons, several of which I'll share with you here! 😀

1. He's trained by James Fanshawe, who is one of my "trainers to follow"...

Simply because if you had backed every single one of his runners since the start of 2011, you'd have made yourself a fair few quid! To be more specific, 135 winners from 841 runners in the last 44 months or so is a remarkable strike rate of 16.1% and the level stakes profits of 199pts from those runners represents a 23.7% return on stakes. James had no runners yesterday but had 2 winners from 5 on Wednesday.

2. Not only is the trainer blindly profitable, he excels here at Kempton...

Since the start of 2010, James' record here is 57 from 245 runners for a 23.3% strike rate and 113.3pts profit at an ROI of 46.3pts. This overall stat can then be broken down as follows:

Handicap races : 38/142 (26.8% SR) for 112.6pts (+79.3% ROI)
Class 3 Handicaps : 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 40.2pts (+211.7% ROI)
1m3f & 1m4f races : 20/68 (29.4% SR) for 68pts (+100% ROI)
11/12f handicaps : 14/40 (35% SR) for 73pts (+182.6% ROI) and finally...
11/12f Class 3 handicaps : 5/9 (55.6% SR) for 31.6pts (+350.8% ROI)

3. Gone Dutch drops back down from Class 2 today...

Since 2008, James Fanshawe has dropped 158 runners down in class with 26 of them going on to win. This 16.5% strike rate has, so far, generated 59.2pts profit at an ROI of 37.5%. More than half of those winners came from the 39% of runners who ran on the All-Weather, where the numbers read 14 winners from 61 (23% SR) for level stakes profits of 29.2pts (+47.9% ROI).

Here at Kempton, meanwhile, the record is 8 winners from 26 (30.8% SR) for 36.6pts (+140.6% ROI) profit.

4. Freddie Tylicki is in the saddle today...

And he has been amongst the winners himself recently, with 7 victories from 29 rides in the last fortnight. Freddie also has a good record on James Fanshawe's runners, with 25 winners from 141 rides (17.7% SR) producing 18.8pts (+13.3% ROI) profit.

Freddie has been successful on 18 of 73 (24.7% SR) Fanshawe handicappers to date with the resultant 25.3pts profit equating to a 34.6% return on stakes. Those figures rise to 9 winners from 25 (36% SR) for 26.7pts (+106.7% ROI) here at Kempton.

As for Gone Dutch himself, he's a decent enough 4yr old who has a better than average record consisting of four wins and two places from his thirteen career starts to date, so he's hardly overexposed yet. All four wins (plus a runner-up finish) have come in his 10 handicap contests and his best form has come on the All-Weather with a record reading 1511, with all four races coming here at Kempton.

He's 2 from 2 over course and distance, including one at today's Class 3 level on his last visit to this track. He was 2.25 lengths ahead of Starwatch that day with that horse subsequently going on to record two wins and a place from four outings after that defeat.

There's plenty of stats to back up the claim of a decent looking runner, who I'd expect to attract money during the day, so I'm getting on early with a 1pt win bet on Gone Dutch at 6/1 BOG with Boylesports. Coral are also offering 6/1, as are Ladbrokes, but the latter aren't BOG until 9.00am. The other firms are all at 5/1 or 11/2, so I'd advise you to...

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Stat of the Day, 27th August 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th August 2014

Danby's Legend took a crashing fall at the first open ditch at Sedgefield and his/our race was over before it had began. This was a blow to both ourselves and the many punters who had backed the horse down to 5/4 from our 9/4 advised odds.

He wasn't running for long enough for me to draw any conclusions, but I will take his opportunity of blowing the geegeez trumpet a little, if I may?

The eventual winner Toledo Gold was sent off at 14/1 in  a 7-runner race and set off like a house on fire and led from pillar to post, winning by five lengths after a mistake at the last. I didn't fancy him to be honest, nor did the market, but the Pace Analysis on our interactive racecards had him at the maximum 16 rating, so well done to those of you using that angle.

None of which did us any good at SotD, so we'll try again in Wednesday's...

5.55 Kempton:

Where the in-form Freddie Tylicki rides the 8/1 BOG (Paddy P) It's A Yes From Me, who is trained by James Fanshawe.

1. Not only is Freddie Tylicki in good nick, he has a good record riding for Mr Fanshawe...

Freddie has ridden 7 winners from 19 rides in the last week alone, so he'll come into this meeting in a confident mood and aiming to build on his record of 18 winners from 70 (25.7% SR) when riding a Fanshawe handicapper. Level stakes profits of 37pts are worth almost 53 pence in the pound from all bet and with a 50% place strike rate, E/W punters have also fared well, netting 55.4pts profits (+39.6% ROI).

2. James Fanshawe's horses tend to run well here at Kempton...

Since the start of 2010, the yard's record here is 56 winners from 237 runners, a 23.6% strike rate generating 11.49pts profits at an ROI of 48.5%. Those figures on their own are excellent, but are actually improved if we only consider those running in handicap contests. In Kempton handicaps over the same period, there were 38 winners from 137 (27.7% SR) for 117.6pts (+85.9% ROI) with the safety-first E?W approach also proving successful courtesy of a 53.3% place strike rate yielding 154.5pts (+56.4% ROI) profit.

3. Our selection drops down from Class 5 to Class 6 today...

This is a tactic used to good effect by James Fanshawe over the years and since 2008, 26 of his 156 "class droppers" have won. A 1-in-6 strike rate is pretty good, as are the returned profits of 61.2pts, or 39.2% of stakes invested.

On the All-Weather, the numbers improve to 14 winners from 59 (23.7% SR) for 31.2pts (+52.9% ROI) profit, with Kempton's contribution to the tally standing at 9/37 (24.3% SR) for 30.4pts (+82.3% ROI).

4. Today's pick is making his handicap debut...

Horses sent to the All-Weather tracks for a handicap debut have won 13 of 44 times for the Fanshawe yard since 2009. It is a fairly small sample size, but the 29.6% strike rate is fairly constant over the years and the level stakes profits of 39pts are worth 88.6% of all stakes invested: more than handy to have. Once again Kempton is a happy hunting ground for the the team with a record of 8 winners from 28 (28.6% SR) for 27.6pts (+98.6% ROI).

5. After three efforts on turf, this is the horse's first run on an A/W track...

This is another successful tactic employed but James Fanshawe, switching a horse from turf to the A/W for the first time, whilst in what it normally perceived as "the turf season". In other words, horses that have run on turf switching over in the months of March to October for a first crack at the A/W. Since 2010, James has done this with 62 runners, landing 18 winners (29% SR) and 53.2pts (+85.8% ROI) profit, with a record of 13/41 (31.7% SR) for 40.2pts (+98% ROI) with those switched here to Kempton.

So, we've an in-form jockey riding for a yard he does well for, who also do well here at Kempton in handicap events. They also do well with horses dropping in class, those making their handicap debuts and those running on the A/W for the first time after runs on turf. I doubt there has been very many horses who tick all those boxes, but we have one here with It's A Yes From Me.

The addition of a visor is expected to expect help here and he probably wouldn't to need to improve too much dropping in class to take this. He hasn't been done too many favours by the assessor, but he is a half brother to two other winners on the A/W and if he takes to the surface like many of his stablemates have, he could well have a decent chance at a fairly big price.

Only two firms (Bet365 and Paddy P) had opened a book at 7.30pm when I wrote this, so a further check may be needed, but the latter were offering the best price and there looks enough in it to take the safety-first approach with this one. Thus, the play is a 0.5pt E/W bet on It's A Yes From Me at 8/1 BOG with Paddy P. To see what the others offer once they're open for this race...

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Stat of the Day, 20th August 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th August 2014

A poor / awful / disappointing * (delete/apply as applicable!) run from Franklin Roosevelt last night. Sent off at 11/4, just slightly shorter than my advisory price of 3/1, he failed to impress.

In fact, I'm going to quote the Sporting Life's summary of the race and then quickly move on..."Raced lazily, not fluent 1st, soon led, jumped right 7th, ducked right approaching next, headed 4 out, mistake 3 out, weakened next..."

He finished 3rd of 5 runners (only 4 finished) and was beaten by 20 lengths for a bad  day at the office hopefully quickly rectified in today's...

4.05 Lingfield:

And a Class 5 A/W handicap over 1m2f, where James Fanshawe runs the 3yr old gelding Captain George.

If you had backed every single one of James Fanshawe's runners since the start of 2011, you'd have had a winner pretty much once every 6 races on average, which is pretty good going over such a long time frame.

The actual numbers are 132 winners from 817 runners for a strike rate of 16.2%, level stakes profits of 211.2pts and an ROI of 25.9% : very impressive stuff indeed. In handicap races, the figures aren't quite as good profit-wise, but are still very creditable in more competitive races at 80/426 (18.8% SR) for 95.3pts (+22.4% ROI).

His younger handicappers (ie 3&4 yr olds) have been particularly successful winning 74 of 353 races (21% SR) for profits of 114.9pts (+32.6% ROI)

Today is Captain George's handicap debut...

James Fanshawe's horse who have made their handicap on an A/W surface since the start of 2009 have won 13 of 42 (31%) attempts with the 41pts profits achieved representing some 97.6% of stakes invested and those sent off in our general 5/2 to 6/1 price range have won 10 of 20 (50% SR) for 33.7pts (+168.4% ROI)

The horse has run four times previously, but never on the A/W...

James Fanshawe is very good at getting horses to perform well on the ir first run on an A/W surface once they've acquired some racing experience on turf and since 2010 his record with such runners is 17 wins from 60 (28.3% SR) for 51.7pts profit (+86.2% ROI), with those sent off at 7/1 or shorter having a record of 13 wins from 27 (48.2% SR) for 59pts (+218.6% ROI).

And of Captain George himself? He probably hasn't progressed quite as quickly as his handlers would have hoped/expected, but he is improving at his own pace. He was a beaten odds on favourite at Nottingham three weeks ago, but that runner-up (beaten by 1.5 lengths) was easily his best run to date. He has been given what looks a lenient mark of 72 for his handicap debut and with Cameron Hardie taking another 5lbs off here, he's likely to be very competitive off that weight.

He was doing all his best work late on at Nottingham, staying on well to make up ground he had lost when outpaced in the midsection of the race and it is assumed that the extra 2f here today will be more to his liking.

I'm pretty confident of him producing his best run to date now sent handicapping on the A/W, yet it seems I've misread the market a little this morning. I was expecting to see him priced up around the 4/1 mark, but 13/2 BOG is currently on offer in several places and a little bit more at BetVictor.

With that in mind, I'm actually going to hedge my bets and take a 0.5pts E/W bet on Captain George today at 7/1 BOG with BetVictor in the knowledge that a win will pay us more than my expected 4pts profit anyway with the added insurance of the place bet.

If you want to see what your favourite bookie is offering, simply ...

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Stat of the Day, 20th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th May 2014

Lion On The Prowl was anything but, I'm afraid. He was more timid pussy cat than prowling lion and had an apparent reluctance to race. He was being given reminders and cajolement from a long way out and its testament to AP McCoy that he finished the race without pulling up.

5th of 6 and 25 lengths off the pace isn't the best start to the week, but you can't win them all, but I do hope to win the...

7.00 Yarmouth:

With James Fanshawe's 3/1 BOG chance Emulating.

I like backing James Fanshawe's runners, because they make me money!  You can back all of them and make a profit. In fact if you'd put £10 on each of his 680 runners over the last four years (a proper sample size!), not only would the 114 winners have given you a very respectable 16.8% strike rate, they would also have generated £2142 profit for you, a healthy return of 31.5% above your stakes.

If we look at just those running on the Flat, the strike rate is slightly lower at 14.6% (via a 61/417 record) but the ROI increases to 37.8% courtesy of the 157.6pts profits achieved.

This is from a really decent sample size, as demonstrated by the fact that James has just the seven runners on show today, so which do we go with and why?

I'm going with Emulating for a couple of reasons, one of which is that he drops in Class today and Mr Fanshawe has an excellent record when dropping his horses in class. You can go all the way back to 2006 and check his figures, but he does consistently well with horses dropping in grade and in the last eight years that record reads as 36 winners from 195 (18.5% SR) for 91.4pts (+46.9% ROI), whilst those sent off more towards our price range, ie 13/8 to 6/1, won 22 of 94 races for a strike rate of 23.4% and profits of 27.6pts, or 29.4% of stakes.

These figures aren't distorted by some big winners a long time ago, as the stats for these class droppers in the last two seasons show 9 winners from 37 (24.3% SR) for 34.1pts (+92.2% ROI), so the yard seem to be getting better rather than worse.

Emulating was a winner two starts ago over 1m4f at Kempton, when seizing the initiative with over a furlong to run and staying on well to win by a length and a half. He was subsequently raised 5lbs for that win and finished fifth at Haydock last time out, but there were mitigating circumstances around that defeat. he was up to a rating of 75, his highest ever, but he is eased a pound today. That race at Haydock was a Class 4 contest over 10.5f, whilst this is a lower grade over a more suitable trip.

And whilst he wasn't disgraced up at Haydock 95th of 16, only beaten by 4.5 lengths), conditions here today are more reminiscent of that win two runs ago and a similar level of performance should be more than enough to land this.

So, Tuesday's play is a 1pt win bet on Emulating at 3/1 BOG with Bet365. other bookies are available, of course (Ladbrokes are currently offering 100/30, but that's non-BOG until 9.00am) and the easiest way to see all the prices listed together, is to just...

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