Tag Archives: James Doyle

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

5.05 Wetherby : Theflyingportrait @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Chased leader, led before 3 out, headed next, weakened flat, lost 3rd towards finish)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.30 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Souter Johnnie @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Nursery for 2yo over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £5,175 to the winner...

Why?...

This 2 yr old gelding was a winner last time out when scoring over a mile on the Polytrack at Kempton a week ago. They way he stayed on strongly over the final half furlong suggests there's more to come and that today's step up in trip might paint him in an even better light.

He is trained by Richard Hughes and the yard looks to be in good nick right now, with 9 placers from 17 over the past fortnight including 4 winners, whilst the A/W runners have won 3 of 10 with 4 of the 7 losers making the frame.

More long-term, Richard's runners are 25/92 (27.2% SR) for 40pts (+43.5% ROI) when sent off shorter than 12/1 here at Chelmsford, with the following of relevance today...

  • 19/73 (26%) for 30.9pts (+42.3%) after a break of 6-60 days
  • 19/71 (26.8%) for 41.7pts (+58.8%) in 7-14 runner races
  • 13/42 (31%) for 38.15pts (+90.8%) during August-October
  • 10/27 (37%) for 31.3pts (+115.9%) with 2 yr olds
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 27pts (+90.1%) at trips of 1m/1m2f
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 16.8pts (+139.7%) in Nurseries
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.92pts (+99.1pts) stepping up in trip by 2-3 furlongs

Now, I know many of you like to see my data subsets combined into a composite angle, so you could take the top three from above ie horses who last ran 6-60 days earlier running in 7-14 runner contests during August to October and that would give you 11 winners from 29 (37.9% SR) for 34.8pts (+120.1% ROI), with the other 4 datasets producing...

  • 8/14 (57.1%) for 29.6pts (+211.3%) at 2 yrs old
  • 4/8 (50%) for 16.82pts (+210.3%) in Nurseries
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 11.16pts (+372%) over this 1m2f C&D
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 12.17pts (+608.5%) stepped up by 2-3 furlongs.

And finally for today, a quick look at the jockey booking, which seems positive to me as James Doyle fares really well on these young horses at the sharp end of the market, Numerically, he is 17 from 34 (50% SR) for 14.42pts (+42.4% ROI) on 2 yr olds sent off shorter than 5/1 here at Chelmsford and this record includes...

  • 15/27 (55.6%) for 16.81pts (+62.3%) at Classes 4/5
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 2.44pts (+34.9%) on LTO winners
  • 3/5 (60%) for 2.86pts (+57.2%) at Classes 4/5 on LTO winners
  • 3/3 (100%) for 4.7pts (+156.7%) on those last seen 1-10 days earlier
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 4.7pts (+156.7%) at Classes 4/5 on those last seen 1-10 days prior...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Souter Johnnie @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & Hills at 5.50pm on Wednesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th November 2018

Friday's Pick was...

6.45 Wolverhampton : Summer Icon @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Tracked leaders, unable to quicken over 1f out, kept on same pace towards finish) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gifted Master @ 5/2 BOG  

...in a 12-runner Listed Race for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £20983 to the winner...

Why?

This 5yr old gelding initially caught my eye, as it featured on the Shortlist report, so I did a little bit of digging and found that he is...

  • 8 from 14 over the 6f trip
  • 5 from 11 in blinkers
  • 5 from 9 at odds of 13/8 to 4/1
  • 3 from 5 in October/November
  • 2 from 4 in Listed company
  • 2 from 4 ridden by James Doyle
  • and 1 from 2 over course and distance after he won this very race last year.

He won the race last year, when carrying 9-6 under James Doyle and James rides again, but the horse carries 3lbs less.

Trainer Hugo Palmer's record in Listed races since the start of 2013 stands at 15 wins from 119 (12.6% SR) for 31.3pts (+26.3% ROI), including...

  • 3 to 5 yr olds at 14/94 (14.9%) for 54.3pts (+57.8%)
  • in fields of 8-13 runners : 12/77 (15.6%) for 63pts (+81.8%)
  • ridden by James Doyle : 4/19 (21.1%) for 10.7pts (+56.3%)

Gifted Master now returns to action after a 12-week break, but I'm not over concerned about his lack of recent action, because Hugo Palmer's horses running after a break to 2 to 5 months are 27/97 (27.8% SR) for 97.9pts (+101% ROI) since the start of 2012, from which the following are relevant today...

  • Sub-10/1 shots are 26/71 (36.6%) for 80.2pts (+113%)
  • males are 22/60 (36.7%) for 105.7pts (+176.1%)
  • those rated (OR) 80 and above are 15/48 (31.3%) for 51.4pts (+107.1%)
  • in non-handicaps : 12/43 (27.9%) for 47.3pts (+109.9%)
  • on the A/W : 14/36 (38.9%) for 93pts (+258.4%)
  • ridden by James Doyle : 10/21 (47.6%) for 28.3pts (+134.9%)
  • and here at Lingfield : 4/11 (36.4%) for 54.5pts (+495.4%)

...whilst sub 10/1 males rated 80 and above are 14 from 28 (50% SR) for 66.2pts (+236.5% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gifted Master @ 5/2 BOG , a price widely available at 6.20pm on Friday evening, although Hills were offering another quarter point for those able to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th November 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.05 Warwick : Kilmurvy @ 6/1 BOG PU at 7/2 (Prominent, lost place 7th, tailed off after 13th, soon pulled up) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.45 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shady McCoy @ 5/1 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 2 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good ground worth £12450 to the winner... 

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding was a runner-up in another Class 2, 7 furlong handicap off today's mark 25 days ago, going down by just half a length to Muntadab, who has since run twice : winning again at this class/trip before finishing as a runner-up in a Listed contest at Newmarket last Saturday, beaten only by our SotD selection, Mitchum Swagger.

Our trainer today is Ian Williams, whose runners are 17 from 105 (16.2% SR) for 13.4pts (+12.7% ROI) here at Doncaster since 2009, of which handicappers priced shorter than 10/1 (my preferred odds range for my personal betting) are 14 from 45 (31.1% SR) for 42.75pts (+95% ROI).

It makes sense to focus on these 45 handicappers today and in the context of this race, they are...

  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 40.33pts (+100.8%) when competing for less than £13k prize money
  • 10/24 (41.7%) for 41.1pts (+171.3%) racing within 25 days of their last run
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 29.45pts (+155%) in 2017/18
  • and 5 from 12 (41.7%) for 26.68pts (+222.3%) after a break of 21-25 days

...AND from the above...2017/18, 7/1 and shorter, 21-25 dslr for less than £13k = 3/5 (60% SR) for 18.36pts (+367.2% ROI), including 1/1 at Class 2 for 6.28pts profit.

I'm also happy to see the Doyler (James Doyle) in the saddle today, as he's in great form, winning 14 of 35 (40% SR) over the last 30 days and 9 of 23 (39.1%) in the past fortnight, whilst his record for Ian Williams in handicaps is an excellent 10/46 (21.7% SR) for 9.3pts (+20.2% ROI) over the last three years...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 5/1 BOG, a price widely available at 5.25pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th September 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.55 Lingfield : Fortune And Glory @ 5/2 BOG 6th at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, headway and squeezed through over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, but beaten by 2.5L)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Klassique @ 5/1 BOG  

In a 9-runner, Class 4 Handicap (AW)  for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack, worth £6469 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly was 5th on debut over a mile and looked like she wanted/needed further, so was stepped up to 9.5f. She was then beaten by three parts of a length as a runner-up and she still looked like she had plenty more to give. She then won on her third and most recent start 8 weeks ago when just getting up by a nose over 1m2f when partnered by today's jockey James Doyle for the first time.

James is back in place and they're going a further 2 furlongs today for her handicap debut and I wouldn't be massively surprised if this proves to be the right trip for her : trainer William Haggas is one of the better judges around.

He doesn't, however, send many runners here to Kempton's Polytrack, but since the start of 2013, his handicappers are 14 from 72 (19.4% SR) for 21.6pts (+30% ROI) at this venue, so it's not a lack of success keeping him/them away. Of those 72 that have been sent here, Class 4/5 runners are 10 from 48 (20.8%) for 14.7pts (+30.7%)

Again since the start of 2013, Mr Haggas is 64/207 (30.9% SR) for 74pts (+35.8% ROI) with LTO winners who had been rested for at least 25 days.

Also in this same 2013-18 timeframe, his Class 3-6 handicap debutants are 71 from 257 (27.6% SR) for 38.3pts (+14.9% ROI), from which...

  • LTO winners are 47/157 (29.9%) for 21.6pts (+13.8%)
  • those off the track for a month or longer are 39/113 (34.5%) for 71.7pts (+63.5%)
  • and LTO winners returning from an absence of a month or longer are 26/71 (36.6%) for 34.3pts (+48.3%)

So, we've considered the horse and her trainer, what of her jockey, James Doyle? Well, he has a good recent record here too, having won 19 of 70 (27.1% SR) handicaps on this track since the start of 2016 recording profits of 30.8pts at an ROI of 44.1%. These also include 14 winners from 37 (37.8%) for 39.7pts (+107.2%) at Class 4 and two wins from three (66.6%) for 5.26pts (+175.4%) on horses trained by William Haggas...

...all of which points to... a 1pt win bet on Klassique @ 5/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power as of 5.15pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th August 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.35 York : Coronet @ 6/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Close up, ridden over 2f out, headway approaching final furlong, driven and stayed on to 2nd towards finish)

Friday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gateway 7/2 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good To Firm ground worth £6469 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, I was tempted to stay at York with Shine So Bright in the 3.00, but I've gone for this 3 yr old making just his fourth start overall and his handicap debut today.

Placed in all three runs so far, culminating in a comfortable 3 length victory at Ayr 17 days ago when full of running late on over 7.5f, I'd guess that an extra furlong shouldn't undo him and I think an opening mark of 76 might prove lenient on handicap debut.

He's trained by headline maker Mark Johnston, who landed a nice winner at York on Thursday, and has a great record on the July track with 45 winners from 236 (19.1% SR) in handicaps here since 2012 resulting in punter profits of 105.5pts at a very healthy ROI of 44.7%.

Of note today from those 236 July track 'cappers...

  • those running off a mark of 65 to 95 are 43/208 (20.7%) for 115.4pts (+55.5%)
  • male runners are 33/162 (20.4%) for 105.8pts (+65.3%)
  • 3 yr olds are 31/160 (19.4%) for 92.9pts (+58.1%)
  • those last seen 11-60 days earlier are 28/137 (20.4%) for 115.9pts (+84.6%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 24/124 (19.4%) for 91.4pts (+73.7%)
  • in 3yo only contests : 19/92 (20.7%) for 95.4pts (+103.7%)
  • LTO winners are 10/55 (18.2%) for 2.66pts (+4.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 13/42 (31%) for 20.4pts (+48.6%)
  • and over this 1 mile C&D : 7/38 (18.4%) for 34.4pts (+90.4%)

...AND...from the above : 3 yr old males rated 65-95 11-60 days after their last run are 17 from 60 (28.3% SR) for 100.2pts (+167% ROI) profit.

I was pleasantly surprised to see James Doyle's name on the racecard to ride this one, as I thought he might have stayed at York to follow up the 2 winners he's already had at this year's Ebor meeting, but York's loss is Newmarket's (and our!) gain, as he's clearly a man in form with a 14-day record of 8 from 31 (25.8% SR) and a 7-day return of 7/24 (29.2% SR).

That said, his past record on this track is probably why he has a full book of rides here, aiming to improve upon his 54 winners from 230 (23.5% SR) rides here over the last 6 seasons that have generated 66.5pts profit at an ROI of 28.9%.

Those 230 rides include of relevance today...

  • on horses priced 5/6 to 9/1 : 50/177 (28.3%) for 79.2pts (+44.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 26/75 (34.7%) for 65pts (+86.7%)
  • in August : 20/71 (28.2%) for 33.7pts (+47.4%)
  • on Class 4 horses priced 5/6 to 9/1 : 23/57 (40.4%) for 44.3pts (77.8%)
  • on horses priced 5/6 to 9/1 in August : 19/55 (34.6%) for 28.7pts (+52.2%)
  • and on Class 4 horses priced 5/6 to 9/1 in August : 11/23 (47.8%) for 24.8pts (+107.8%)

Note : these James Doyle stats also apply to Ice Gala (2.05 race), Sangarius (3.15) and Black Lotus (3.45)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Gateway 7/2 BOGa price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power (as at 6.20pm on Thursday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

7.30 Epsom : Toy Theatre @ 4/1 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn at 8.05am due to the going)

Friday's pick goes in the...

2.25 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Threading 5/2 BOG

In a 6-runner, Group 3 contest (Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes) for 3yo over 1m on Good ground worth £56710 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly is rated (OR) 1 to 15 lbs better than the four of her five rivals who've got an official mark, but as the only filly in the contest gets a 3lb weight pull from all five, putting her at a great advantage as she seeks a fourth win in eight starts.

Her current 3 from 7 record is decent if not exceptional, but does include of note today...

  • 3 from 4 when not at Newmarket (perhaps she's not suited there)
  • 2 from 3 at 16-30 days since last run
  • 2 from 2 in August
  • wins on Gd to Fm / Gd to Soft & Soft suggest no going issues
  • has 2 wins at Class 1, inc a Gr 2
  • has won over 1m
  • has won here at Goodwood
  • and has won under jockey James Doyle

Her trainer, Mark Johnston, thrives here at Goodwood and prior to hitting two winners from six runners yesterday, his record at this venue stood at 82/543 (15.1% SR) for 266.8pts (+49.1% ROI) since the start of the 2008 season and these include of relevance today...

  • over the last five (inc this one) seasons : 44/269 (16.4%) for 143pts (+53.1%)
  • at 11-25 days since last run : 46/261 (17.6%) for 237.9 (+91.2%)
  • on good ground : 41/240 (17.1%) for 158.6pts (+66.1%)
  • in August : 23/152 (15.1%) for 95.2pts (+62.6%)
  • in non-handicaps : 29/151 (19.2%) for 69.2pts (+45.9%)
  • over 1m/1m1f : 16/79 (20.3%) for 76pts (+96.2%)
  • at Class 1 : 12/71 (16.9%) for 26.4pts (+37.2%)
  • at Group 3 : 4/26 (15.4%) for 19.7pts (+75.6%)
  • and with James Doyle in the saddle : 3/13 (23.1%) for 22.6pts (+174%)

...AND...over the last five seasons with horses on good ground, 11-25 days after their last run : 11 from 47 (23.4% SR) for 88.4pts (+188.1% ROI) with a Class 1 record of 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 12.7pts (+141.2%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Threading 5/2 BOGa price widely available at 6.20pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th October 2017

Thursday's Result :

2.20 Worcester : Get Ready Freddy @ 5/2 BOG 4th at 3/1 : In rear, pushed along after 5 out, headway before 2 out, kept on same pace...

Friday's selection goes in the...

8.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cool Team @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

A Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over 1m on polytrack...

...and a 3 yr old gelding in receipt of a handy 3lbs weight for age allowance as he bids to continue his fine form that has seen him make the frame in 6 of his 8 career starts to date.

He has run here once before, beaten by a neck and ahead into third place over this course and distance two starts ago before going on to win at Newcastle at this grade and trip next/last time out 21 days later/14 days ago.

His trainer Hugo Palmer is 18 from 111 (16.2% SR) for 22.7pts (+20.4% ROI) on the A/W here at Kempton since the start of 2014, with handicappers winning 8 of 41 (19.5%) for 12.5pts at an ROI of 30.6%.

It is those 8 handicap wins that are of most interest/relevance today and in respect of this evening's contest, those 8 wins were achieved as follows...

  • 7 came from the 23 (30.4%) priced at 9/4 to 7/1 for profits of 18.68pts (+81.2%)
  • 6 came from the 25 (24%) running on standard to slow going for profits of 9.55pts (+38.2%)
  • 6 came from the 27 (22.2%) male runners for profits of 7.55pts (+28%)
  • 6 came from the 29 (20.7%) running within 30 days of their previous outing for profits of 11.88pts (+41%)
  • 5 came from the 18 (27.8%) running at Class 4 for profits of 14.9pts (+82.7%)
  • 5 came from the 24 (20.8%) 3 yr olds for profits of 5.34pts (+22.3%)
  • 4 came from the 10 (40%) ridden by James Doyle for profits of 7.59pts (+75.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Cool Team @ 10/3 BOG, which was offered by Betfair Sportsbook, BoyleSports, Paddy Power & SunBets at 6.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th September 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.45 Lingfield : Unified @ 4/1 BOG 12th of 12 at 7/1 : Mid-division, edged right and ridden 3f out, soon behind...

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

8.10 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Banish @ 8/1 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding is 2/7 on Polytrack including a win over 1m3f here at Kempton previously.

Ridden today by James Doyle who has landed 5 winners from 14 in his last three days of action and with another 3 making the frame, he's clearly in good touch, as he tends to be around this track too.

In handicap contests here since 2008, he has 68 winners from 473 (14.4% SR) for level stakes profits of 96.3pts (+20.4% ROI), from which...

  • males are 53/302 (17.6%) for 90.2pts (+29.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 29/140 (20.7%) for 48.09pts (+34.9%)
  • and those trained by Hugo Palmer are 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 3.4pts (+37.6%)

Speaking of Hugo Palmer, his runners are 16/100 (16% SR) for 25.96pts (+25.96% ROI) here at Kempton since the start of 2014, with the following subsets of data particularly relevant today...

  • those priced at 3/1 to 10/1 are 14/53 (26.4%) for 46.9pts (+88.5%)
  • males are 9/50 (18%) for 20.4pts (+40.8%)
  • handicappers are 7/38 (18.4%) for 10.3pts (+27.2%)
  • at Class 4 : 6/36 (16.6%) for 3.62pts (+10.1%)
  • those racing after less than 3 weeks rest are 6/30 (20%) for 14.23pts (+47.4%)
  • and 4 yr olds are 2/10 (20%) for 8.98pts (+89.8%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Banish @ 8/1 BOG, which was widely available at 5.30pm on Tuesday, whilst Bet365 were offering  9/1 BOG and Sunbets were at 17/2, but they only go BOG on the morning of races and I'll be settling up at 8/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th September 2017

Thursday's Result :

2.25 Doncaster : Nyaleti @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 4/1 : Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on, but beaten by 2 x head...

Friday's pick goes in the...

1.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Aqabah @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

Trainer Charlie Appleby is in fine form of late, clocking up 7 winners from 18 (38.9% SR) over the last fortnight, with another 5 of the losers making the frame for a place strike rate of 66.6%.

Jockey James Doyle is also in decent nick, with a 10 from 42 (23.8% SR) record during the same time and when the two have combined recently, they are 5 from 12 (41.7% SR).

More long-term than just the past two weeks, Charlie's runners here at Doncaster are 23/112 (20.5% SR) for 26.5pts (+23.7% ROI) profit and those numbers include...

  • males at 20/79 (25.3%) for 48.4pts (+61.3%)
  • over the last two seasons : 10/38 (26.3%) for 36.5pts (+96.1%)
  • males over the last two seasons are 9/32 (28.1%) for 40.2pts (+125.7%)
  • on soft ground : 3/16 (18.8%) for 10.8pts (+67.6%)
  • ridden by James Doyle : 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.7pts (+130.3%)
  • on soft ground over the last two seasons : 3/4 975%) for 22.8pts (+570%)
  • under James Doyle over the last two seasons : 2/2 (100%) for 6.8pts (+340%)

I wouldn't be too surprised if Aqabah shortens overnight and eventually goes off as favourite and that wouldn't entirely be a bad thing, for although it's a reckless policy to blindly back favourites, profit can be made from backing the right ones. This brings us back to jockey James Doyle, who is 51/110 (46.4% SR) for 22.5pts (+20.5% ROI) on favourites this year, including...

  • on 2yr olds : 20/38 (52.6%) for 5.37pts (+14.1%)
  • over the 7f trip : 18/31 (58.1%) for 12.4pts (+40%)
  • for Charlie Appleby : 11/23 (47.8%) for 4.44pts (+19.3%)
  • on soft ground : 6/8 (75%) for 5.4pts (+67.5%)
  • and here at Doncaster : 2/3 (66.6%) for 1.34pts (+44.6%)

...which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Aqabah @ 10/3 BOG, which was offered by Bet365 & BetVictor at 5.30pm on Thursday with plenty of acceptable 3/1 BOG offered elsewhere! For what it's worth, I'm on with Bet365, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th July 2017

Friday's Result :

4.10 Doncaster : Pleasant Surprise @ 3/1 BOG WON at 2/1 Steadied start, held up in rear, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, held on well to win by a length.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

3.35 Sandown...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Barney Roy3/1 BOG

Why?

Three wins from four so far for this three year (runner-up beaten by a length in the Guineas was his only defeat), 2 from 3 on Good to Firm, 2/3 under James Doyle, won a Gr 1 LTO 18 days ago and is 1/1 going right handed.

So conditions look fine and this allies well to the fact that on the Flat, Class 1 males who won a Class 1 race LTO 11-45 days ago are 25/66 (37.9% SR) for 42.6pts (+64.5%ROI) since 2014, with those running on Good to Firm winning 13 of 29 (44.8%) for 26.8pts (+92.3%) and here at Sandown, it's 3 from 7 (42.9%) for 1.2pts (+17% ROI).

Short and sweet today, but solid facts nonetheless...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Barney Roy @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Sandown...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!