Tag Archives: Hughie Morrison

Stat of the Day, 1st June 2019

Friday's pick was...

5.30 Wolverhampton : Tha'ir @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (With leader, keen, led over 5f out, hung right and headed over 1f out, kept on under pressure)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Telecaster @ 5/1 BOG

...in the 13-runner, Group 1, Investec Derby for 3yo over 1m4f  on Good ground worth a mere £921,537 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced (just three runs so far) colt has excellent breeding as you'd expect, he's the son of a Derby winner out of an Oaks runner-up and has finished 211 in his runs so far, the latest being a win in the Gr 2 Dante at York over 10.5 furlongs 16 days ago under today's jockey Oisin Murphy who is now 2 from 2 on the horse.

Overall, Oisin has 18 wins from 89 (20.2% SR) for 44pts (+49.4% ROI) for trainer Hughie Morrison, for which...

  • he is 14/48 (29.2%) for 55.9pts (+116.4%) on 3 yr olds
  • 9/23 (27.3%) for 42.1pts (+127.7%) during 2018/19
  • and 7/21 (33.3%) for 50pts (+238.3%)

Hughie himself has a 19.7% strike rate since 2010 on this uniquely quirky track, acquired via 12 winners from 61 yielding 45.2pts profit at an excellent ROI of 74.1% backed blindly and these include 6 from 22 (27.3%) for 27.1pts (+123.2%) since the start of the 2017 campaign.

And during 2017-19, Hughie's LTO winners sent off at odds of 2/1 to 9/1 (we should be safe here) after at least 2 weeks rest are 14 from 54 (25.9% SR) for 45.2pts (+83.8% ROI), from which the following are relevant today...

  • 12/38 (31.6%) for 47pts (+123.6%) on the Flat
  • 10/30 (33.3%) for 34.2pts (+114.1%) from male runners
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 42pts (+182.4%) during March to July
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 31pts (134.8%) from 3 yr olds
  • 4/8 (50%) for 31.5pts (+393.7%) at Class 1
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 11.5pts (+191.8%) over 1m4f

...and the above includes 5 winners from 6 (83.3% SR) for 25.46pts (+424.3% ROI) from 3 yr old males on the Flat in May/June...

And finally for today, I want to look at the general make-up of a Derby winner, as our pick is favoured by the the facts that the last 22 Derby winners included...

  • 22 with no previous run at the trip
  • 22 with no previous run at Epsom
  • 20 were last seen 2-5 weeks earlier
  • 18 were sent off at 7/1 and shorter
  • 17 had ran 3-5 times that season
  • 17 were drawn in stall 10 or a single digit
  • 15 were LTO winners
  • 12 had a maximum previous run of 1m2f/1m2.5f
  • 11 had a maximum previous winning trip of 1m2f/1m2.5f

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Telecaster @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power & Unibet at 6.05pm on Friday with plenty of 9/2 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.50 Newbury : Speedo Boy @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Shade keen tracking leaders, 3rd and one pace from 2 out, blundered last)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap  for 3yo over 1m1½f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly was a decent second off this mark at Chelmsford last time out, that was over slightly longer (1m2f) over at Chelmsford 18 days ago and a similar level of performance now switched to slightly shorter on Tapeta could well be the key to her breaking her maiden tag.

She's actually been running pretty well with two runner-up finishes sandwiching another couple of decent efforts in her last four outings and in what looks a fairly weak (albeit open) contest, she could well finally go one better.

I mention the switch of surface possibly being a help today and this is backed up by the fact that since the start of 2015, offspring of Sea The Stars are 8 from 42 (19.1% SR) for 8.9pts (+21.2% ROI) in A/W handicaps on Tapeta, having not run on the surface last time out. Of relevance today and from those 42 runners...

  • those who ran on the A/W LTO are 6/20 (30%) for 21.63pts (+108.2%)
  • 3 yr olds are 5/20 (25%) for 3.6pts (+18%)
  • females are 5/19 (26.3%) for 22.2pts (+116.8%)
  • over trips of 1m to 1m2f : 5/18 (27.8%) for 18.56pts (+103.1%)
  • after a short 11-20 day break : 4/14 (28.6%) for 22.5pts (+160.7%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/11 (27.3%) for 19.9pts (+180.9%)
  • and those who ran at Chelmsford LTO are 2/8 (25%) for 11.2pts (+139.5%)

*

7lb claimer Oliver Stammers is in the saddle today and in his short 10-month career so far has won 10 of 84 (11.9% SR) races, which is a decent enough start, but of those 84 races, he has done particularly well in A/W handicaps, winning 6 of 35 (17.1% SR) for 18.4pts (+52.5% ROI) profits, including...

  • at Class 6 : 5/25 (20%) for 21.6pts (+86.4%)
  • over trips of 1m1.5f and beyond : 5/16 (31.25%) for 33.07pts (+206.7%)
  • and at Class 6 over trips of 1m1.5f and beyond : 4/14 (28.6%) for 28.3pts (+202.2%)

*

Plus there's a distinct possibility that our pick will go off as favourite today and considering that blindly backing favs is a quick way to the poor house, you might be surprised to discover that backing favs trained by Hughie Morrison is actually a profitable venture.

Blindly backing such runners has turned a profit in 10 of the last 12 years and since the start of 2011 (having made a loss in 2010!), those favs are 142/411 (34.6% SR) for 33.8pts (+8.2% ROI), from which the last five years have seen 89 winners from 253 (35.2%) for 29.3pts (+11.6%) profit including...

  • in handicaps : 61/189 (32.3%) for 26pts (+13.7%)
  • female runners are 36/101 (35.6%) for 13.5pts (+13.4%)
  • female handicappers are 24/72 (33.3%) for 12.14pts (+16.9%)
  • and female handicappers on the A/W are 13 from 33 (39.4%) for 7.27pts (+22%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 5.35pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd August 2017

Monday's Result :

2.00 Lingfield : Rock N Roll Global @ 4/1 BOG - 2nd at 5/2 : Towards rear, pushed along and headway over 2f out, ridden to chase winner over 1f out, kept on one pace, beaten by half a length...

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.30 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Prosecution @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

As this is a maiden handicap, there's obviously no winning form on offer here, making our pick's recent finishes of 232 the best of this bunch today. Placed in 3 of 4 starts on the Flat so far, either at this level or higher suggests he well just have a little bit too much for his rivals and also interests me because...

...2012-17 / UK Flat / 3-5 yr olds / 7f-1m4f / top 3 finish in each of last 3 races / 2nd or 3rd LTO 6-30 days ago = 308/1447 (21.3% SR) for 282.1pts (+19.5% ROI) including...

  • those last seen 16-30 days back : 190/880 (21.6%) for 252.5pts (+28.7%)
  • LTO runners-up are 191/811 (23.6%) for 136.2pts (+16.8%)
  • Class 5 runners are 125/435 (28.7%) for 62.9pts (+14.5%)

Added to this, we have trainer Hughie Morrison / 2-3 yr old males / Class 3 to 6 Flat handicaps / July to September / 2012-17 = 13/67 (19.4% SR) for 11.5pts (+17.2% ROI), from which...

  • over the last three seasons : 9/42 (21.4%) for 12.93pts (+30.8%)
  • priced at 7/4 to 9/2 : 11/31 (35.5%) for 17.4pts (+56.1%)
  • and in August : 4/22 (18.2%) for 5.07pts (+23%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Prosecution @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Monday, whilst those with an unrestricted Ladbrokes account can get 3/1. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th May 2017

Friday's Result :

2.10 Newmarket : Passcode @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 10/3 In touch, headway 2f out, ridden and no impression after.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

5.00 Newmarket...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Star Rock11/4 BOG

Why?

4th and 5th in her two runs last season, both over a mile, but was a runner-up on her only outing this year when stepped up to 1m2f, despite coming off the back of a 170-day absence.

She has every right to strip fitter for the run and the drop in class should also help her attempt to improve the recent form of trainer Hughie Morrison, who already has 4 winners from 19 over the last fortnight.

What also drew me to this horse, was Hughie's record with horses priced at 6/4 to 10/1 running over today's trip since 2008, which stands at 44/218 (20.2% SR) for 42.1pts (+19.3% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • those racing at Classes 4 to 6 are 40/184 (21.7%) for 54.2pts (+29.5%)
  • those whose last run was in the past 30 days are 32/127 (25.2%) for 41.6pts (+32.8%)
  • females are 24/99 (24.2%) for 46.4pts (+46.8%)
  • in 3yo only races : 12/59 (20.3%) for 18.3pts (+31.1%)
  • and in races solely for female runners : 10/46 (21.7%) for 17pts (+37%)

...for...a 1pt win bet on Star Rock11/4 BOG which was widely available at 7.35pm on Friday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 29th December 2016

Wednesday's Result :

14:00 Leicester : Foundation Man @ 4/1 BOG 2nd @ 6/1 - Led from 1st, ridden and headed 2 out, kept on and no chance with winner.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

11:45 Southwell

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fern Owl @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

This four year old colt is up against a short priced favourite here today, but I think he looks value on what he has achieved in the past. He stayed on strongly to win from a mark of 71 (he runs off the same mark today) at Kempton in September, and a similar performance would give him a great chance.

Trainer Hughie Morrison has been among the winners recently, with the following stats applicable.

  • for the last 30 days he is 5/24 (20.83%) for 5.88pts
  • at the course over the last five years he is 20/91 (21.98%) for 18.35pts
  • and with stayers on the flat he is an impressive 40/204 (19.61%) for 30.17pts

Fern Owl seems to flourish with jockey Liam Keniry onboard, and he has the following stats.

  • for the past 14 days he is 3/21 (14.29%) for 5pts
  • at Southwell over the past year he is 3/16 (18.75%) for 0.25pts
  • and when riding Fern Owl he is 2/7 (28.57%) for 12pts

Over this distance Fern Owl is 1/5 (20%) for 6pts.

...which provides...a 1pt win bet on Fern Owl at 4/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Paddy Power Skybet, Betfred and Betvictor (so we should all be getting the same deal!) at 18:25 on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 11:45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 1st September 2016

Wednesday's Result :

7.50 Carlisle : Ryan The Giant @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 4/1 (Slowly away, mid-division, led over 8f out, headed over 3f out, weakened over 1f out) : the stat about Keith Dalgleish handicappers still stands as his runner in the previous race was a winner!

Thursday's pick goes in the...

8.40 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sarsted at 13/2 BOG

Why?

According to the excellent Trainer Snippets report, Hughie Morrison does well with handicap stayers, so I decided to take a closer look and what I found that was since the start of 2014, he has an excellent record in handicaps over 1m 3.5f to 2m.

If you've not checked this report out yet, you really should!

Anyway, numbers-wise, I found that Hughie's runners had won 38 of 176 (21.6% SR) in such conditions, recording level stakes profits of 75.1pts at an ROI of 42.7%, and of those 176 runners, I further discovered that...

  • those returning from a break of 0-45 days are 31/131 (23.7%) for 79.8pts (+60.9%)
  • those priced at 100/30 to 9/1 are 21/85 (24.7%) for 51.4pts (+60.4%)
  • those racing over this specific 1m6f trip are 13/47 (27.7%) for 59.1pts (+125.7%)
  • at Class 4, they are 9/41 (22%) for 17.7pts (+43.3%)
  • those finishing 2nd LTO are 10/28 (35.7%) for 11.8pts (+42.2%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 7/11 (63.6%) for 17pts (+154.7%)

All of which was music to my ears (eyes?), as I already liked the look of Sarsted, as he's now 5lbs better off re-opposing his victor from last time out, having only been beaten by a length and a quarter with the switch back to Chelmsford (where he has already won) being another factor, especially as...

...Hughie Morrison's runners are 16 from 40 (40% SR) for 47.2pts (+118.1% ROI) here at Chelmsford since the venue re-opened, of which...

  • those returning from a break of 6-45 days are 14/29 (48.3%) for 46.9pts (+161.8%)
  • handicappers are 13/28 (46.4%) for 28.6pts (+102.1%)
  • those priced at 11/4 to 10/1 are 11/22 (50%) for 54pts (+245.5%)
  • over trips of 1m 5.5f to 2m : 8/16 (50%) for 14.1pts (+88.1%)
  • previous course winners are 5/11 (45.5%) for 5.54pts (+50.4%)
  • those with a top 2 finish LTO are 6/9 (66.7%) for 11.34pts (+126%)
  • and Jim Crowley has ridden 2 winners from 3 (66.7%) for 0.79pts (+26.2%)

Jim, himself, is in fine form, chasing every last winner he can get and over the last nine days from 45 rides, has 14 winners (31.1% SR) and has made the frame a further 14 times for a place strike rate of 62.2%!

In addition to his recent run of winners, his record here at Chelmsford is also decent with 20 wins from 98 (20.4% SR) for level stakes profits of 40.2pts at an ROI of some 41%.

...which give us...a 1pt win bet on Sarsted at 13/2 BOG, with either Bet365 or BetVictor who jointly headed the market at 6.15pm on Wednesday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Chelmsford.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 12th August 2016

Thursday's Result :

5.05 Yarmouth : Novoman @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Led, ridden when hard pressed 1f out, kept on under pressure inside final furlong, headed towards finish, no extra, beaten by half a length)

Friday's pick goes in the...

8.15 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dutch Law at 4/1 BOG

Why?

Hughie Morrison has got his string in fine fettle at present, rattling up 18 winners from 78 (23.1% SR) in the last 50 days for level stakes profits of 53.9pts at an ROI of 69.1%. And of those 78 runners...

  • those on the Flat (turf) : 16/61 (26.2%) for 60.3pts (+98.8%)
  • in handicaps : 14/53 (26.4%) for 58.4pts (+110.2%)
  • and in Flat handicaps : 12/38 (31.6%) for 62.8pts (+165.3%)

With this being a Flat handicap, we should look at those 38 runners a little closer for pointers and doing so tells us that...

  • they are 7/25 (25%) for 30.1pts (+120.4%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 4 yr olds are 6/13 (46.2%) for 25.1pts (+192.9%)
  • and here at Newmarket, they are 3/6 (50%) for 8.04pts (+134%)

So, a quick scan of today's fixture shows just the one Hughie Morrison runner, the 4 yr old gelding Dutch Law, who not only benefits from the above trainer stats, his own profile suggests he'll go well today. He's already won 3 of 11 Flat handicaps himself, but the following data from those 11 runs is of particular relevance and interest today...

  • he has 3 wins and 3 places (1252211) on a straight track
  • 3 wins & 2 places (125211) from 6 Good to Firm runs
  • 3 wins & 2 places (12211) from 5 races after a top 2 finish LTO
  • 3 wins & 1 place (1211) from 4 runs here at Newmarket
  • 3 wins & 1 place (1211) from 4 runs at odds of 5/2 to 11/2
  • 2 wins & 2 places (2211) from 4 runs at Class 2/3
  • 2 wins & 1 place (211) in fields of 7 to 10 runners
  • 1 win & 1 place (21) in two outings with today's jockey
  • 1 from 1 over course and distance
  • 1 from 1 after just 1-7 days rest

And, not only do all the above apply today, Dutch Law comes here in great form, finishing 2211 in his last four runs, 3 of which were here at Newmarket (211), the most recent being a comfortable 2 lengths victory, 6 days ago in a Class 2 contest and he now takes a drop in class to run here.

...so, it's... a 1pt win bet on Dutch Law at 4/1 BOG with any of half a dozen or so firms offering that price at 6.10pm. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.15 Newmarket.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2016

Tuesday's Result :

2.45 Musselburgh : Shifting Star @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on same pace, eased when held close home)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

5.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pastoral Music at 7/2 BOG

Why?

Third when last seen 25 days ago, this 3 yr old gelding was only beaten by a length here on this track over 1m2f, finishing half a length behind a 74-rated runner-up, so a mark of 73 today seems fair for his handicap debut which sees him step up in trip by a couple of furlongs.

His yard is in good nick, as Hughie Morrison's runners are 7/16 over last fortnight and 4/9 in the last seven days (he has one to run at 8.10 Tuesday, which will slighly alter those figures) and he does well enough enough with his handicap debutants, especially under today's conditions, as we'll now see!

Since the start of 2009, Hughie's handicap debutants are 33/203 (16.3% SR) for 30.7pts (+15.2% ROI) and these are decent enough figures, but in the light of this contest, those runners are..

  • 24/159 (15.1%) for 24.3pts (+15.3%) as 3 yr olds
  • 17/113 (15%) for 34pts (+30.1%) 11 to 45 days after they last ran
  • 16/90 (17.8%) for 28.3pts (+31.4%) from his males
  • 15/83 (18.1%) for 36.8pts (+44.4%) at Class 5
  • 24/78 (30.8%) for 37.5pts (+48%) at odds of 2/1 to 5/1
  • 12/48 (25%) for 13pts (+27.1%) stepped up in trip by 1.5 to 2.5f
  • 8/41 (19.5%) for 12.6pts (+30.7%) stepping up a class
  • 8/33 (24.2%) for 16.8pts (+50.9%) from those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO

...and this all means the call is a 1pt win bet on Pastoral Music at 7/2 BOG with either of 10Bet, BetVictor and/or Paddy Power, who all headed the market at 5.55pm and to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 18th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th October 2013

No joy, but no disgrace yesterday as Duchess of Seville fared better than the bare 6th place would suggest. We backed her at 8/1 E/W looking for at least a place and she only missed out on the money by a length after being outpaced late on.

In fact, the race was so tight that she was only 2 lengths away from the winner! She was well backed during the day down from our 8/1 advised odds to a low of 3/1 at one point, before the market settled down and sent her off as 9/2 second favourite, so we did at least beat the book.

We all know that beating the book price is important and although no reward came yesterday, it is the key to long-term success.

The North West beckons today and a 10 furlong maiden for two year olds in the...

2.20 Haydock

Where Richard Hughes rides Fun Mac for Hughie Morrison and the horse is currently best priced at 4/1 BOG with several firms.

Fun Mac was a very creditable third last time out over this same trip (allaying any stamina concerns) at Pontefract eleven days ago and takes a drop down in Class to compete here today. This is a tactic often used by Hughie Morrison to good effect.

In the 2011/13 period, Hughie Morrison's runners dropping down one class to compete have won 15 of 58 races (25.9% SR) when sent off at SPs of between 6/4 and 12/1. This has produced 46pts level stakes profits, a return of 79.3% ROI.

If we're a little more restrictive in the odds to fall in line with our usual selections here at SotD, we see 9 winners from 28 (32.1% SR) for 22.15pts (+79.1% ROI) from those horses priced between 5/2 and 5/1, showing a consistent level of return.

Fun Mac comes here after running well enough last time out and despite not winning managed to put a good 14 lengths between himself and the following pack and with no disrespect to Robert Havlin, who rode him on his two outings to date, but it is expected that the booking of Richard Hughes is likely to draw further improvement from this horse.

I mentioned in a previous SotD post that certain trainers will switch to one of the "big three" to get a little more out of a horse and the move often pays dividends. The fact is that when Hughie Morrison books one of Messrs Moore, Fallon or Hughes to ride a horse they didn't ride last time out, there are profits to be made.

In the same 2011/13 timeframe as above, Mr Morrison has drafted one of these three jockeys in on 71 occasions, resulting in 21 winners (29.6% SR) and 29.5pts (+41.5% ROI) profits. And when those horses attracted market support (ie were priced at 9/2 or under), the figures are 17 winners from 36 (47.22% SR) for 20.55pts (+57.1% ROI)

When Richard Hughes was the chosen jockey, his record reads as 10 winners from 22 (45.45% SR) for 8.9pts (+40.5% ROI) profit.

And finally, we should just remind you that although Richard has ridden 775 2yr olds in the last three seasons, it is profitable to back him blindly on them! He has a strike rate of over 26% at all odds (31% below 5/1) and generates around 16% profit above stakes.

In my opinion, Fun Mac is only as big as 4/1 because there has been some money for the favourite Newmarket Warrior, who remains a maiden after five attempts and also seems to find one (or two!) too good for him and I expect that to be the case again today, so it's a 1pt win bet on Fun Mac for me and I've taken the 4/1 BOG on offer from BetVictor, but this price is fairly widely available, so why not ...

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Stat of the Day, 19th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th September 2013

No joy, but no disgrace yesterday for Srucahan, who finished 5th of the 12 runners at an SP of 12/1, after we'd taken 14's earlier in the day. The result was far closer than it seems, as our selection was only beaten by a length in an exciting finish.

The forecasted heavy ground had dried out a little and was officially soft and I think that had the going not improved, the leaders wouldn't have been able to go as quick late on and we'd be celebrating a place at the very least.

Regardless of that, Srucahan gave us a great run for our money at odds longer than I'd usually go for and I should also note that Paul Deegan's other runner at Listowel was second at 16/1.

Back to England today and more specifically Yorkshire for the...

4.00 Pontefract

Where Hughie Morrison runs Jubilante in this Class 3 Fillies handicap over six furlongs. On the face of things, she's not the obvious pick in this race: in fact our excellent interactive racecard suggests that there a few others best suited today.

However, the going is good to firm with further rain expected and an easing of the ground back to Good would play into her hands, as she has one win and one second place from her two efforts on good ground. She also has some decent efforts behind her on good to soft, but I doubt it'll get that wet!

(Incidentally, you can find all this out via the drop down buttons on the Race Analysis section of the racecard).

Closer inspection of her record to date shows that this is her first effort in this grade, but she's actually stepping down in class to compete here, after having contested a couple of decent Class 2 handicaps at Newmarket over the summer.

She was only beaten by a neck over today's 6f trip in the first of those races and she went down by just over 2 lengths when finishing 5th of 11 over 7 furlongs, where she didn't quite see the trip out.

Hughie Morrison is quite adept at dropping horses down a class in handicap events, as he has done so with 71 horses in the last three years, of which 14 (19.72%) have been returned as winners, generating 28.4pts (+40% ROI) profit in the process.

Those results are from backing all his runners blindly when dropped in class in a handicap race, but closer inspection shows that the bulk of the winners are priced in what I loosely see as SotD territory, ie 5/2 or over, but below 12/1.

I do this, because there's little profit to be made from the shorties and the longer shots don't win often enough to keep the scoreboard ticking.

If you're happy to stick with some rigid odds parameters, then the 5/2 to 11/1 bracket has yielded 13 of those 14 winners from above, but has eliminated 25 losing horses, taking the record to 13 from 46 (28.3% SR) for 50.6pts (+110% ROI) profits: figures that are music to my ears.

Jubilante has improved greatly over the last 12 months and has been consistent, if not prolific, as her record of 321235 shows. She's drawn well today and the drop in both class and trip are sure to help her in her bid to take this one today. I expect this to be a strongly run race, which will also be of benefit to us today, she seems to perform better when there's some early pace for her to follow.

She's been off the track for a couple of months and should be fresh and ready to go. If she shows anything like the form from Newmarket in the summer, then a 1pt win bet on Jubilante at 4/1 BOG with Stan James should us drawing from the well again. That 4/1 price is the best on offer, but I'm aware of the volatility of these markets, so please...

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