Tag Archives: Hexham racecourse

Stat of the Day, 12th October 2019

Friday's pick was...

1.50 Newmarket : Platinum Star @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 5/4 (Held up, pushed along over 1f out, never nearer)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Misfits @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m on Soft ground worth £5,783 to the winner...

Why?...

This 8 yr old gelding won this race last year and comes here aiming to continue trainer Lucinda Russell's recent good form that has seen her land 5 winners from 18 (27.8% SR) over the last fortnight.

And in addition to that good recent form, she has also done very well over at Hexham for a number of years with 54 winners from 329 (16.4% SR) yielding 125.5pts profit at an ROI of 38.1% since 2013 and these include of relevance today...

  • 50/303 (16.5%) for 125.5pts (+41.4%) at Class 4/5
  • 48/277 (17.3%) for 139.1pts (+50.2%) with male runners
  • 48/268 (17.9%) for 113.1pts (+42.2%) with 4-8 yr olds
  • 42/233 (18%) for 65.3pts (+28%) in handicaps
  • 32/153 (20.9%) for 129.3pts (+84.5%) in chases
  • 28/154 (18.2%) for 132.1pts (+85.8%) beyond 2m4f
  • 24/112 (21.4%) for 89.7pts (+80.1%) during October/November
  • 20/70 (28.6%) for 118.7pts (+169.5%) on Soft ground
  • and 18/105 (17.1%) for 78.9pts (+75.2%) after a break of 16-30 days...

...whilst 5-8 yr old males in Class 4/5 handicap chases are 24 from 99 (24.2% SR) for 43.3pts (+43.7% ROI), including...

  • 11/39 (28.2%) for 12.5pts (+32.1%) during October/November
  • 8/20 (40%) for 20pts (+100%) on soft ground
  • and 6/14 (42.9%) for 13.8pts (+98.7%) on soft ground during October/November...

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Misfits @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available at 7.50pm on Friday, although Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th October 2019

Thursday's pick was...

7.00 Chelmsford : Ventura Royal @ 9/2 BOG 11th at 8/1 (Led, edged left after 2f, headed over 1f out, soon weakened)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Only Orsenfoolies @ 10/3 

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m4f on Soft/Heavy ground worth £7,083 to the winner...

Why?...

This 10 yr old gelding comes here seeking to complete a hat-trick, albeit 111 days since his last outing. Prior to the break, he completed back to back wins at Carlisle (C4, 2m1f on heavy) and then his last run was here over this class, course and distance under today's jockey, Billy Garritty who steered him to a comfortable 9 length success.

He is 4 from 17 over hurdles, including 8 places (inc 3 wins) on soft/heavy and he has a win and a place here at Hexham from two runs and the same record under today's jockey.

His trainer, Micky Hammond is 24 from 85 (28.2% SR) for 21.5pts (+25.3% ROI) since 2013 with his LTO winners sent off at 10/1 or shorter in hurdles contests, including...

  • 17/62 (27.4%) for 6.33pts (+10.2%) when using the same jockey as LTO
  • 16/68 (23.5%) for 24.1pts (+35.5%) at odds of 15/8 to 10/1
  • 16/53 (30.2%) for 14.9pts (+28.2%) at the same class as LTO
  • 9/33 (27.3%) for 4.48pts (+13.6%) on Soft/Heavy
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 12.3pts (+55.9%) over 2m4f to 2m5f
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 19.8pts (+104%) at the same trip as LTO
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 21.5pts (+82.6%) with runners returning from a 1 to 5 month break
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 9.62pts (+60.1%) at the same class and distance as LTO
  • and 6/14 (42.9%) for 5.84pts (+41.7%) here at Hexham...

...whilst his overall record at Hexham with his handicap hurdlers stands at 10 from 53 (18.9% SR) for 28.6pts (+54% ROI) since the start of 2017 and these include of relevance today...

  • 9/27 (33.3%) for 48.1pts (+178.2%) from 7-10 yr olds
  • 9/16 (56.25%) for 60.5pts (+377.9%) when using a jockey claiming 5lbs or more
  • 8/20 (40%) for 18pts (+90%) at sub-7/1 odds
  • 3/15 (20%) for 21.6pts (+144%) on Soft/Heavy
  • 2/8 (25%) for 0.6pts (+7.5%) from LTO winners
  • 2/5 (40%) for 2.94pts (+58.8%) from former C&D winners
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 13.55pts (+271%) with Billy Garritty in the saddle...

...whilst 7-10 yr olds sent off shorter than 7/1 with a jockey claiming 5lbs or more are 6 from 7 (85.7% SR) for 19.3pts (+276.1% ROI), including Only Orsenfoolies last run...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Only Orsenfoolies @ 10/3  as was offered by SkyBet & Hills at 5.40pm on Thursday, although they won't actually be BOG until midnight. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd September 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.10 Chester : Oh This Is Us @ 7/2 BOG WON at 5/2 (Held up towards rear, pushed along and headway on outside well over 1f out, hard ridden and ran on well to lead close home to win by half a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.40 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Melody of Scotland @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4f on Good ground worth £6,108 to the winner...

Why?...

When I was going through my various saved micro-systems and the Geegeez report suite to formulate my shortlist of horses for today, the name Melody of Scotland kept on cropping up. Obviously that's not enough to make any horse a selection for SotD : they then have to be within my personal price criteria and also have what I'd deem a decent chance of winning, but it does warrant them getting a closer look.

I think this 5 yr old mare has at least a fighting chance based on 2 wins and a runner-up finish from her last four outings, finishing second last time out 11 days ago over a shorter trip on ground I think was too quick for her (I backed her then, but before the track dried out!). Back up to 2m4f on a track/trip she knows and on slower ground (although still good ground), I think she can go one better.

Stat-wise, she does crop up one multiple angles, so I'm going to keep it brief and not do my usual long-winded mining of the data!

  1. She's already 2 from 2 here at Hexham, both in a visor and both under today's jockey Richie McLernon, including one over Course and Distance.
  2. Trainer Ben Haslam's handicappers sent off at odds fo 9/4 to 8/1 (I'm sure we'll be here) within 14 days of a top 3 finish LTO are 9/26 (34.6% SR) for 23.4pts (+90% ROI) during 2016-19.
  3. Since the start of 2018, Ben's hurdlers are 10/39 (25.6% SR) for 52.2pts (+133.8% ROI), including 8 from 27 (29.6%) for 49.1pts (181.7%) over 2m to 2m4f
  4. Since 2016, Ben's record here at Hexham stands at 8 from 30 (26.7% SR) for 56.1pts (+187.1% ROI), including 3/9 (33.3%) for 16pts (+177.2%) in handicap hurdle contests
  5. And since 2016, Ben's Summer Hurdlers, as I call them (sub-12/1 handicappers in May-September) are 5 from 18 (27.8% SR) for 25.7pts (+143% ROI) including 3/7 (42.9%) for 18pts (+256.4%) this year alone

And all that's before you consider how well the trainer/jockey partnership has fared in the last month/year and also their joint record here at this venue, but I'm sure you've got the picture...

...enabling you to place... a 1pt win bet on Melody of Scotland @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 7.55pm on Sunday.. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th April 2019

Saturday's pick was...

6.30 Wolverhampton : Zapper Cass @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, ridden and edged right last bend, stayed on same pace inside final furlong)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ravished @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 6, Open Hunters Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on Good ground worth £2184 to the winner...

Why?...

This 11 yr old gelding was a good 11 lengths winner of a similar Class 6, 3m, Hunter Chase last time out, 17 days ago at Wetherby, having triumphed by 30 lengths in a 3m Point to Point some 13 days prior to that, so he should be fine with the trip again today.

Today's rider Joe Wright was in the saddle for both wins, so there should be some familiarity there to work with for a horse who has an overall record of 5 wins from 31 under Rules including 4/22 over fences (1/1 in hunter chases from LTO) and of his 5/31 Rules record he is...

  • 4/12 at trips of 3m and beyond (3/10 over fences)
  • 4/6 at odds of 4/1 and shorter (4/5 over fences)
  • and 1/1 for trainer GC Brewer, 1/1 at Class 6 and 1/1 under Joe Wright : all three achieved LTO!

He's by Oscar, whose offspring are 8/33 (24.2% SR) for 31pts (+93.8% ROI) in hunter chases at 2m7.5f and beyond since the start of 2017, from which..

  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 42.4pts (+325.9%) on Good ground
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 24.9pts (+207.3%) from 11yr olds
  • whilst 11 yr olds on Good ground are 4/7 (57.1%) for 29.9pts (+426.9%)

Whereas trainer GC Brewer's only runners under Rules are those running in this type of race and since the start of 2017, his hunter chasers are 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 19.75pts (+246.9% ROI), including...

  • 11 yr olds at 3/4 (75%) for 20.15pts (+503.7%)
  • sub-5/1 shots are 3/3 (100%) for 7.29pts (+243%)
  • whilst sub-5/1 11 yr olds are 2 from 2 (100%) for 4.68pts (+234%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Ravished @ 11/4 BOG as offered by Betfair, Hills, Paddy Power & Sky at 8.30pm on Sunday (3.30pm here),. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 26th March 2019

Monday's pick was...

6.45 Wolverhampton : Distant Mirage @ 3/1 BOG 6th at 11/4 (Towards rear, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and stayed on final furlong, nearest finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glinger Flame 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4f on Soft/Good to Soft ground worth £6758 to the winner...

Why?...

A lightly raced 7 yr gelding making a handicap debut is the one carrying my money today (hope the added weight doesn't stop him!). He's had just four runs to date (2 of which were in bumpers), finishing in the frame (3323) each time and his two efforts over hurdles have seen him only beaten by a neck and then a length, so it wouldn't take much improvement to get him up for a first win.

And with no disrespect intended to Ryan Day, I feel the booking of Brian Hughes in the saddle might just make that little bit of difference needed, especially as he's got an 18.9% strike rate (67 from 355) on this track since 2011, including winning 14 of 64 (21.9% SR) since the start of 2018.

Trainer Nicky Richards trains this horse just 45 miles away from this venue and it's surprising that he's only sent 59 runners here since 2012. What isn't surprising, however, is that he does well with the ones he does send over, a sign of picking and choosing the right races, perhaps?

Of those 59 runners sent on the short hour or so journey, 17 (28.8% SR) have won, generating level stakes profits of 12.93pts at an ROI of 21.9%, so it's not a lack of success keeping him away, surely.

Anyway, it's not for me to guess why he's not a regular here, but I can tell you that of those 59 visitors...

  • those sent off at 7/1 and shorter are 16/41 (39%) for 21.3pts (+51.9%)
  • hurdlers are 10/36 (27.8%) for 5.8pts (+16.1%)
  • handicappers are 9/30 (30%) for 14.5pts (+48.2%)
  • 6-8 yr olds are 13/29 (44.8%) for 28.6pts (+98.5%)
  • Class 4 runners are 8/29 (27.6%) for 5.3pts (+18.2%)
  • over trips of 2m4f - 3m : 11/23 (47.8%) for 24.6pts (+107.1%)
  • those racing on Soft/Good to Soft ground are 8/18 (44.4%) for 12.9pts (+71.4%)
  • those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 8/16 (50%) for 14.1pts (+88%)
  • and those ridden by Brian Hughes are 3/5 (60%) for 2.86pts (+57.1%)

And with this horse making his handicap bow, it's also worth noting that since 2012, Nicky's handicap debutants are 14/66 (21.2% SR) for 15.7pts (+23.9% ROI), including of note today...

  • Oct-April = 13/56 (23.2%) for 21.2pts (+37.9%)
  • hrds = 10/56 (17.9%) for 7.1pts (+12.6%)
  • males = 14/53 (26.4%) for 28.7pts (+54.2%)
  • Sub-5/1 = 12/35 (34.3%) for 22.7pts (+65%)
  • 1-6 months off track = 9/35 (25.7%) for 22.1pts (+63%)
  • Soft/Gd to Soft = 7/29 (24.1%) for 19.1pts (+65.7%)
  • Class 4 = 9/26 (34.6%) for 23.7pts (+91.2%)
  • at 2m4f = 5/11 (45.5%) for 24.1pts (+218.9%)
  • and 7 yr olds = 4/10 (40%) for 17.26pts (+172.6%)

...from which sub-5/1 male hurdlers running in November to April within 4 months of their last outing are 7 from 13 (53.9% SR) for 21.5pts (+165.6% ROI) profit, including...

  • at Class 4  :5/8 (62.5%) for 16.03pts (+200.4%)
  • on Soft/Gd to Soft : 4/6 (66.6%) for 13.65pts (+227.4%)
  • whilst those racing at Class 4 on Soft/Gd to Soft are 2 from 2 (100%) for 7.15pts (+357.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Glinger Flame 3/1 BOG which was available from at least 8 firms at 5.50pm on Monday, but Bet365 were offering an extra half point for those quick enough/allowed to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th December 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

12.50 Southwell : Kommander Kirkup @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Towards rear, pushed along 4f out, ridden and headway entering final 2f, no impression final furlong) - never really travelled well to be honest and was being bumped along from an early point.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Echo Express @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft (Heavy in places) ground worth £4484 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding was a decent enough runner-up when last seen 3 weeks ago, that was over course and distance and was only his second visit to Hexham (placed both times), first crack at the minimum trip, first effort over fences and first time with today's jockey Brian Hughes in the saddle, as well as his first run in over 25 weeks.

With that pipe-opener under his belt and running in similar condition to LTO, allied to a drop in class and weight, there are plenty of reasons to be confident about a decent run again today.

His yard is going well enough right now too, trainer Nicky Richards had a couple of winners at relatively-nearby Kelso last Sunday and although he doesn't send many runners on the short 45 mile trip from his Cumbrian HQ over to Hexham, those that come here tend to fare pretty well with his handicappers winning 7 of 27 (25.9% SR) for 11.01pts (+40.8% ROI) since the start of 2013, including the following of relevance today...

  •  at odds of 7/1 and shorter : 6/18 (33.3%) for 10.36pts (+57.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.91pts (+63.6%)
  • in chases : 3/14 (21.4%) for 4.63pts (+33.1%)
  • within 30 days of their last run : 5/11 (45.5%) for 14.95pts (+135.9%)
  • dropping down a class : 3/9 (33.3%) for 4.24pts (+47.1%)
  • 6 yr olds : 4/7 (57.1%) for 19.82pts (+283.1%)
  • and those with a top 3 finish LTO are 3/7 (42.9%) for 4.19pts (+59.9%)

We've got soft ground that's going to be heavy in places today and a 7-runner field largely bereft on any discernible form in such conditions, but not our boy. He has a win and a place from three runs on soft and was placed in one of his two heavy ground runs, but that's not a surprise when you consider the fact that since the start of 2014, Nicky Richards' handicappers are 51 from 233 (21.9% SR) for 65.2pts (+28% ROI) when backed blindly on any ground deemed soft or worse. Mind you, he does train his horses in one of the wettest locations in England!

Of these 233 mudlarks, with today's race in mind...

  • males are 49/216 (22.7%) for 72.7pts (+33.7%)
  • chasers are 22/105 (21%) for 27pts (+25.8%)
  • in December / January : 20/90 (22.2%) for 47.9pts (+46.5%)
  • top 2 finish LTO : 25/84 (29.8%) for 27pts (+32.1%)
  • within 25 days of last run : 20/73 (27.4%) for 54.9pts (+75.2%)
  • 6 yr olds are 15/50 (30%) for 57pts (+54%)
  • ridden by Brian Hughes : 2/5 (40%) for 13.1pts (+262.2%)
  • and here at Hexham : 2/4 (50%) for 0.42pts (+10.6%)

...and based around the above categories : Since the start of 2014, Nicky Richards' 5-10 yr old male handicap chasers racing on soft/heavy ground in December to February, 2 to 8 weeks after a top 4 finish LTO are 14 from 29 (48.3% SR) for 52.7pts (+181.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Echo Express @ 10/3 BOG, as offered by Bet365 & SkyBet respectively at 5.35pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

PPS Thursday's selection will appear later on Wednesday than usual, I've got an appointment I can't get out of!

Stat of the Day, 23rd April 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

2.45 Bangor : Red Devil Star @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (In touch, hampered 1st, chased leaders 5 out, pushed along next, stayed on same pace from 2 out)

We seek an upturn in fortunes via Monday's...

2.20 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sky Full Of Stars @ 3/1 BOG

A 11-runner, Class 5,  1m7.5f Handicap Chase (5yo+) on soft ground worth £4549 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding has one win and one place from three runs over fences this year, all over 2m 0.5f on heavy ground and he was only narrowly beaten (0.75 lengths) when 21 lengths clear of the 3rd place horse at relatively nearby Newcastle last time out nine days.

He jumped much better than the winner and the omission of the last fence that day possibly made a difference to the end result, but who knows?

He also has one win and one place from three efforts over fences at this trip and this slight drop in distance allied to better racing ground might just swing it for him/us.

His trainer James Ewart has actually been profitable to back blindly in NH handicaps over recent years, as his 79 winners from 523 (15.1% SR) since the start of 2013 have been worth 81.1pts at an ROI of 15.5%, but rather than blanket betting, let's just take a quick look at the chasers from that dataset...

  • on soft ground : 10/56 (17.9%) for 16.46pts (+29.4%)
  • 4-15 days since last run : 12/34 (35.3%) for 14.48pts (+42.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 10/33 (30.3%) for 27.32pts (+82.8%)
  • and here at Hexham : 6/17 (35.3%) for 19.67pts (+115.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Sky Full Of Stars @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th April 2018

Monday's Runner was...

8.15 Wolverhampton : The King's Steed @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 2/1 (Led after 1f, ridden over 2f out, headed over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

And now to Tuesday's...

2.50 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

PC Dixon @ 7/2 or even 4/1 BOG

A 5-runner, Class 4,  2m novice handicap hurdle on heavy ground worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?

Well, in what looks a fairly average sort of contest, we've a 5yr old gelding who despite not winning often enough comes here in good nick, having finished 242212 in his last six runs. Interestingly the recent win was here at Hexham 25 days ago over today's course and distance, also at Class 4 on heavy ground when partnered by today's jockey Thomas Dowson who will yet again take a valuable three pounds off a horse already carrying less weight than his rivals.

To date over hurdles, this horse's record includes the following of relevance today...

  • 1 win, 2 places from 4 on heavy ground
  • 1 win, 2 places from 3 in 5-runner races
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 over 2 miles
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 under jockey Thomas Dowson
  • 1 from 1 here at Hexham
  • 1 from 1 over course and distance

And his recent form makes him a qualifier for my 1234 microsystem, where I look for horses who won 2 starts ago (hence the 1) and were then placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th (the 234!) next/last time out. There are of course some other rules, otherwise we'd have hundred of qualifiers per month and the addition rules (which aren't as complicated as they look in print) are...

...UK NH handicaps up to 3.5 miles / all going except the rarely seen good to firm / February to November / 2013 to now / an OR ranging from -2lb to +11llbs from LTO / running at -2 to +2 classes from LTO / and running over trips varying from -4.5f to +8.5f from LTO...

That's a fairly wide-reaching set of specs, of course, but this generalised approach has been good for 185 winner from 851 qualifiers (21.7% SR) since the start of February 2013, yielding 314pts profit at an excellent ROI of 36.9%.

Once again, I get that you might not want to back so many horses blindly from one micro, so you could take any of the following profitable angles, all applicable today...

  • hurdlers : 89/434 (20.5) for 152.9pts (+35.2%)
  • runner-up LTO : 95/405 (23.5%) for 140.7pts (+34.7%)
  • in March/April : 54/250 (21.6%) for 139.9pts (+56%)
  • at trips of 2m 0.5f and shorter : 50/201 (24.9%) for 170.9pts (+85%)
  • stepping up 1 class : 48/193 (24.9%) for 170.7pts (+88.4%)
  • in novice handicaps : 29/126 (23%) for 48.5pts (+38.5%)
  • 5 yr olds are 26/94 (27.7%) for 60.7pts (+64.5%)
  • on heavy ground : 19/79 (24.1%) for 35.9pts (+45.5%)
  • and here at Hexham : 10/38 (26.3%) for 22.8pts at an ROI of 60.1%

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on PC Dixon @ 7/2 or even 4/1 BOG which was available from Paddy Power and Betfair respectively (I'll be using 7/2 for my official results) at 5.05pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th March 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

5.45 Wolverhampton : Bernies Boy @ 10/3 BOG  WON at 4/1 Tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to lead close home, winning by half a length.

And now we move on to Thursday's...

3.45 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Itstimeforapint @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 4m handicap chase (5yo+) on heavy ground worth £7, 148 to the winner...

Why?

Well, he's a 10 yr old in decent nick after wining over 3m5.5f at Bangor on heavy ground last time out under today's jockey Derek Fox. That was 34 days ago, giving him ample time to rest ahead of a race his trainer, Lucinda Russell, seems to target and has actually won it in each of the last two years.

Her yard is thankfully emerging from a quiet spell and her last six runners have finished 232112, which is very encouraging ahead of a visit to a track where she has done really well generally rather than just this particular race.

In fact, since the start of 2012, her runners are 54/289 (18.7% SR) for 86pts (+29.8% ROI) here at Hexham and those figures include...

  • males at 50/235 (21.3% SR) for 107.1pts (+45.6%)
  • aged 6 to 12 yr old : 43/221 (19.5%) for 93.8pts (+42.4%)
  • handicappers are 37/196 (18.9%) for 72.9pts (+37.2%)
  • those who ran in the past five weeks : 34/155 (21.9%) for 107.7pts (+69.5%)
  • chasers are 23/125 (23.2%) for 66pts (+52.8%)
  • in March : 8/35 (22.9%) for 23.3pts (+66.5%)
  • and LTO winners are 5/23 (21.7%) for 17.6pts (+76.7%)

And if from all that data above you just wanted a micro system with around 10-15 bets a year, then 6-12 yo male HC chasers running within 5 weeks of their ast outing are 15/58 (25.9% SR) for 66pts (+113.7% ROI) with March runners winning 3 of 7 (42.9%) for 16.81pts (+240.1%) and LTO winners doubled up twice from 6 attempts (33.3%) for 20.09pts (+334.9%).

This is actually our boy's second visit to this venue, as he came here in 2016 and won this race! He's 2 from 3 on heavy ground over fences and was sired by Portrait Gallery, whose 10 yr old jumpers are 8/22 (36.4% SR) for 69.7pts (+316.8% ROI) since the start of 2016 and these 22 jumpers (all male chasers!) are...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 34.7pts (+288.8%) in handicaps
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 27.85pts (309.4%) after a break of 26-45 days
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 43.6pts (+872%) on heavy ground.

...steering us inexporably towards...a 1pt win bet on Itstimeforapint @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Hills and a tleast half a dozen others at 6.15pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th October 2017

Thursday's Result :

4.25 Warwick : Shanroe Santos @ 11/2 BOG 6th at 5/1 : Always behind, tailed off 6 out...

Friday's selection goes in the...

5.20 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Final Fling @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding who won last time out 46 days ago (so should be fresh) over course and distance under today's jockey, has to be respected now dropping down in class, surely?

He's trained by Rose Dobbin, whose LTO winners are 17/43 (39.5% SR) for 33.9pts (+78.7% ROI) when sent off at odds of 13/8 to 9/2 since the start of 2010 and these runners include...

  • hurdlers @ 7/19 (36.8%) for 15.1pts (+79.5%)
  • on soft ground : 2/6 933.3%) for 4.96pts (+82.6%)
  • at 2m 6.5f to 2m 7.5f : 3/4 9755) for 10.23pts (+255.8%)
  • and here at Hexham : 1/4 (25%) for 1.41pts (+35.2%)

Whilst more generally (and somewhat more substantially!), since 2008, handicap hurdlers with the CD icon next to their name who were LTO winners anywhere are 291/1639 (17.8% SR) for 196.2pts (+12% ROI) at odds of 7/4 and bigger, from which those now running at the same track and trip as that LTO win are 206/1112 (18.5% SR) for 159.9pts at an ROI of 14.4% : pretty good for blanket backing over 1000 runners!

And, of those 1112 LTO C&D winners...

  • males are 173/912 (19%) for 156.7pts (+17.2%)
  • 6 yr olds are 56/297 (18.9%) for 65pts (+22%)
  • 6 yr old males are 45/244 (18.4%) for 59.3pts (+24.4%)
  • those running here at Hexham are 6/22 (27.3%) for 12.3pts (+56%)
  • and 6 yr old males running here at Hexham are 1/2 (50%) for 2.8pts (+140%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Final Fling @ 4/1 BOG, which was offered by Betfair Sports, Betfred, Paddy Power, SkyBet & ToteSport at 5.55pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!