Tag Archives: Haydock

Stat of the Day, 19th October 2012

Stat of the Day 19/10

Stat of the Day 19/10

Stat of the Day, 19th October 2012

Another day, another E/W placer! I advised a 13/2 E/W bet on the ultra-consistent Mother Jones yesterday, based on her uncanny ability to finish in the top three at will. The logic was that if she gave her normal good account of herself, we'd be having a free 0.5pt on the win element, should she improve.

As it happened, she had no friends in the market (except for our loyal SotD readers!) and drifted quite markedly from a low of 9/2 out to a very generous 9/1 at the off. Mother Jones duly obliged and ran her usual race and finished third, still running on. It represented another 63% profit on stakes for the day and became our fifth placer in six days and 11 from 18 this month. This level of consistency is nice for the ego, but it isn't boosting the bank by much, so it's high time we had a winner!

To this end, we're heading back to the turf and up to the North West (some say Lancashire: God's own county and some say Merseyside) for a Class 3 Handicap over a mile. We expect twelve of the original fourteen runners to battle it out on heavy ground in the...

4.45 Haydock

Three weeks ago, we took SotD to Haydock and although our selection was unplaced that day,we also highlighted the performances of Tom Dascombe and Natasha Eaton in our piece. They combine today for our selection, which runs at 4.45.

Tom Dascombe's record in handicap contests at Haydock is up with the best of them: 13 wins from 42 (31%) for a level stakes profit of some 18pts (43% ROI), whilst a total of 19 (45%) of them have been placed. It could be argued that if his horse is going to make the frame there's a 68% chance it'll go on to win. Tom's actually got three runners at Haydock today, but two of them (Unknown Villain & Cool Runnings) are competing in a maiden event and he is therefore only represented by one handicapper, Chosen Character: our pick of the day.

Chosen Character will be ridden by Natasha Eaton again today and is her only scheduled ride of the day, so she's going to need to give it her allĀ  to maintain her own excellent record at the track. This talented up and coming jockey actually has the best Haydock stats on display today. She has ridden 5 winners and a place from just 12 attempts at the track: that win strike rate of 42% is exceptional and has generated level stakes profits for her followers of an impressive 27pts (225%)

I referred you back to three weeks ago, when I mentioned this Dascombe/Eaton/Chosen Character combination and the result was another victory for the team that day under today's conditions ie Class 3 handicap over a mile on heavy ground, ran at 4.45 on a damp Friday afternoon at Haydock. Can lightning strike twice?

Chosen Character is a proven front-runner as he showed last time out, but he may not have it all his own way today as there is likely to be quite a bit of early pace from elsewhere. This might mean he'll trade longer in-play, but he showed in his July hat-trick that he does not have to lead to win.

Chosen Character is having a tremendous year, winning 5 times already including two in September (the latest was over C&D on heavy). Three of his victories have come under today's jockey, Natasha Eaton, who he clearly gets on very well with (she's 11241 on him). He had the re-opposing Extraterrestrial more than five lengths behind last time out and is expected to make a bold bid for a second hat trick inside 3 months. The form of that last C&D win is working out well and I expect another good show today.

So, the trainer has a great record here, as does the jockey. The horse is in good form and 3 wins from 4 suggests he likes the track too. A record of 2 from 2 on heavy ground will help our cause today, as both of those were over today's course & distance.

It won't be a shoo-in today, but the 4/1 BOG generally on offer is good enough for me, so it's a 1pt win bet at 4/1 BOG on Chosen Character, but you really should take time to...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 4.45 Haydock.

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2012

Stat of the Day 28/09

Stat of the Day 28/09

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2012

A fantastic result for us yesterday, as our 9/1 advised shot Aneyeforaneye drifted out to an SP on 12/1 and just about got up on the line to take a thrilling victory.
We had, of course, only advised an E/W bet, but that was still enough to make a 7.2pts profit from the race. Unfortunately Mr Jefferson couldn't quite get the 65/1 double, as The Magic Bishop finished 2nd in the following race.

Our quest to end the month on a high takes us to Merseyside today, where the ground is heavy after some serious rain recently. Our contest is the last on the card, a Class 5 Apprentice Handicap over 10 furlongs and we're expecting 11 runners to compete for the...

5.20 Haydock

Over the last couple of years, the Haydock record of Alan Bailey is the best of all those with runners at this track today. His strike rate of 29% puts him just ahead of Tom Dascombe on 27% and his impressive place strike rate of 43% in Haydock handicaps is also the best on show today.

Therefore, we're immediately interested when Mr Bailey has a horse running at Haydock Park and even more so on those occasions when it's just one runner. This is the case today, as Alan's sole representative at the track is Dazzling Valentine, our SotD pick of the day.

Dazzling Valentine arrives here in good form with a recent record of one win and three places from five attempts over the last couple of months, including a 20/1 2nd place finish over course & distance on her last visit here in July. She should arrive in good heart after a win at Brighton over this same trip last time out (3 weeks ago) and I'd expect her to be on the premises once again, despite a 3lb rise for that win. Stamina on this heavy ground shouldn't be an issue either, she has performed on soft ground quite well in the past and has some good results at a longer trip under her belt.

As this is an apprentice handicap, jockey choice is very important and we're very fortunate to have the talented Natasha Eaton on board today. Not only does she hold the best riding record of all the jockeys on show today (40% win strike rate), she also has an excellent 50% place strike rate at the track. Added to this is a useful 3lb claim, which will go some way to counter the recent rise in weights for our horse.

Natasha has only ridden 6 times for Alan Bailey at Haydock and their record together reads 111542, the last of which was the afore-mentioned 20/1 2nd place finish for today's selection Dazzling Valentine.

All thing considered, I think we've a very good chance of at least a place finish. The fact that this race is a tougher task than last time is reflected in the odds available but at 8/1 BOG (bet365), an E/W bet is available to us.

So, for SotD records purposes, I'll be taking 0.5pts E/W at 8/1 BOG on Dazzling Valentine,
but I suggest that you...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 5.20 Haydock.

P.S. I mentioned that Tom Dascombe had the 2nd best training record on show today.
Well, he only has one runner too and that horse is also Natasha Eaton's only scheduled ride today.
Chosen Character (currently 5/1 BOG with Bet365) runs in the preceding race to ours at 4.45.

Stat of the Day, 5th July 2012

Stat of the Day 05/07

Stat of the Day 05/07

Stat of the Day: 5th July 2012

A frustrating first day back in the SotD hot seat for me yesterday! My initial selection fell foul of the great British weather, so I went with split stakes on two runners from the Fanshawe/Fallon partnership. Both drifted from my advised price and both were well beaten. There's little to add to that, as we move on to today's quest for a winner. Our search takes us off to the North West of England today to tackle a Class 5 Maiden Fillies Stakes for 2 yr olds.

The going is set to be Good to Soft, which itself is testimony to the excellent work done by the grounds staff (we've had a deluge up here in the last few weeks!) and 12 runners are set to do battle in the...

2.50 Haydock

Trainer John Holt isn't exactly a household name, nor does he have the biggest string of horses: just 63 runners in the last 12 months! These 63 runners only produced 6 winners and 12 placed horses, so why are we looking at him for SotD?

His record at Haydock is out of kilter with his general profile: his career stats here are 4 wins and 4 places from just 11 entries and his record in the last couple of years is 3 wins and 3 places from just 7 races: excellent stuff if we can find an E/W opportunity!

And in true SotD style: Mr Holt has just one runner put today and it's at Haydock in the shape of Emperatriz. This horse is from a lightly raced dam and Holy Roman Emperor, who was no slouch himself, so the breeding looks good. She ran well on debut, finishing 2 lengths behind Boomshackerlacker at Newmarket on soft ground. She was a 66/1 shot that day and I expect her to come on for that run.

John Holt has only ever sent one 2 yr old to Haydock and that was a winner too, so here's hoping he can double up with Emperatriz. As I started to write this piece, our selection was a good 8/1 E/W prospect, but the withdrawal of 3 runners, including the favourite leaves us with a 9 runner race and best odds of 5/1 (bet365), I still think there's some value in that price as a win bet, so that's where my money's going today, but you can always...

Click here for the latest odds for the 2.50 Haydock .