Tag Archives: Haydock racecourse

Stat of the Day, 30th December 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.35 Newbury : Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Chased leaders, led 11th, pushed along and headed 3 out, chased winner, one pace and well held)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.25 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Longhousesignora @ 4/1

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 3m½f on soft ground worth £6,498 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare won a Class 2 chase by 15 lengths last time out, at Hereford over 3m1½f on soft ground, so this should be well within her capabilities reverting back to hurldes in a lower grade and sporting the blinkers she successful wore for the first time for that win. She'll be seeking to add to trainer Venetia Williams' good run of form, which has seen the yard land 15 winners from 45 (33.33% SR) and 19.62pts (+43.6% ROI) over the last 21 racing days.

Mind you, this run of form comes as no surprise to me, as one of my saved angles tells me to back all of her Class 2 to 4 handicappers during November/December, because the last six of those pairs of months have produced 89 winners from 420 (21.2% SR) for a profit of some 164.7pts (+39.2% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 5-8 yr olds are 74/310 (23.9%) for 187.5pts (+60.5%)
  • those racing over 2m3f to 3m4½f are 74/308 (24%) for 201.4pts (+65.4%)
  • those racing on soft or "worse" ground are 70/294 (23.8%) for 121.3pts (+41.2%)
  • those racing at Class 4 are 38/177 (29.9%) for 77.4pts (+60.9%)
  • since the start of November 2018, they are 28/115 (24.3%) for 84.8pts (+73.7%)
  • hurdlers have won 22 of 108 (20.4%) for 30.2pts (+28%)
  • LTO Winners are 19/65 (29.2%) for 30.6pts (+47.1%)
  • whilst those sent here to Haydock are 8/26 (30.8%) for 25.5pts (+98%)

...all of which then leads us to a secondary saved micro-system of mine, where from the above 420 runners, we back 5-8 yr olds racing over 2m3f to 3m4½f on soft or worse ground. This gives us over 84% of the original profit from just 39% of the bets as 49 winners from 164 (29.9% SR) have generated 138.6pts at an ROI of 84.5% and that's the basis for the bet today.

If you wanted to filter down as before then you'd get...

  • 22/55 (40%) for 62.1pts (+112.8%) at Class 4
  • 18/50 (36%) for 64pts (+128%) in 2018/19
  • 11/43 (25.6%) for 41pts (+95.3%) over hurdles
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 4.4pts (+12.5%) from LTO winners
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 25.8pts (+215.2%) here at Haydock (our racecard icons are already alerting you to the yard's overall success at this track)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Longhousesignora @ 4/1 as was offered by both BetVictor & SkyBet at 10.10pm on Sunday, with plenty of 7/2 elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.25 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th September 2019

Thursday's pick was...

7.00 Chelmsford : Excellent George @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Raced wide in touch, ridden and headway entering final furlong, soon edged left, stayed on but beaten by a length)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.10 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Young Fire @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Heavy ground worth £9,338 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner here last time out, landing the odds on what seems to be default soft (or often worse like today) ground here at Haydock (the NW of the country is pretty wet right now yet again!). He was a length clear of the 4th placed and consistent Alemaratalyoum, who has, as recently as Wednesday of this week, since landed a Class 2 contest on heavy ground off a mark 1lb higher than ours today .

Just 3 UK starts today for this French-raised horse, but he does bring some decent (and winning) form on soft/very soft ground and has also proven that the trip is within him.

Stat-wise, we're going back to the trusted, reliable Tudhope/O'Meara partnership who yet again are having a good year and still continue to produce their winners at prices big enough to beat the bookies, which isn't often the case with well known angles.

That said the duo are 53 from 274 (19.3% SR) for 85.7pts (+31.3% ROI) for 2019, with the bulk of the runners running on the Flat, where they are 49/247 (19.8%) for 83.1pts (+33.7%). I'll admit that I knew they had close to a 1 in 5 record this year on the Flat, but I'm amazed that they're not overbet yet, so it's still an angle to follow.

If you wanted to be more specific, then of the 247 Flat runners this year...

  • 23/114 (20.2%) for 81.1pts (+71.1%) over 7 to 10 furlongs
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 83.1pts (+32.4%) this month alone
  • 8/38 (21%) for 21.1pts (+55.6%) at Class 3
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 36pts (+277.1%) over 7-10f this month
  • 5/20 (25%) for 20.4pts (+102%) in Class 3, 7-10f contests

Whilst slightly more generally, David O'Meara continues to enjoy success here at Haydock, where he is still profitable to back blindly, but with today's race in mind, I just wanted to highlight that over the past four seasons in 6-10.5f handicaps at odds of 5/2 to 9/1 (where we should be today, allowing for some movement), his runners are 9 from 51 (17.7% SR) for 14.4pts (+28.2% ROI), including...

  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 13.8pts (+51.1%) with Danny Tudhope in the saddle
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 13.2pts (+77.4%) at Class 3
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 14.37pts (+95.8%) on Soft/Heavy
  • 2/9 (22.2%) for 12.3pts (+136.5%) in September
  • and 1/4 (25%) for 0.38pts (+9.5%) on Heavy...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Young Fire @ 5/1 BOG as was available from SkyBet, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Thursday with plenty of 9/2 elsewhere, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th September 2019

Thursday's pick was...

4.40 Salisbury : You're Hired @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Tracked leader, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and switched left over 1f out, stayed on to go 2nd towards finish)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wild Edric @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Soft ground worth £6,469 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding has finished 122 in his last three starts, beaten by just a head when collared late on at Chester LTO 6 days ago having possibly had to do too much to get in front from a poor-ish draw. Running off the same mark today, it is hoped that a return to a straight 5f wearing first-time blinkers will enough to eke out a little bit from him today.

To date, his career stats under today's conditions include...

  • 3 wins and 2 places from 8 at class 4
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 under jockey Richard Kingscote
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 carrying 9st 2lbs
  • 1 from 1 within a week of his last run
  • and 1 from 1 on soft ground

He's trained by Tom Dascombe and a quick glance at the Racecards tells you that both trainer and jockey have good records at this venue and as Richard is Tom's main jockey, it doesn't take a great leap of faith to guess that as a partnership, they've done well here too.

I think that's pretty much common knowledge, so I won't bore you by drilling down into those details, we can just take it as read that they go well here individually and as a team.

Tom's horses are going well enough right now, winning 6 of 30 (20% SR) over the past fortnight, but that's no real surprise as Tom's one of the trainers included in my "Late Season" trainers to watch. In Tom's case, I look for 2-4 yr old Flat handicappers priced at 15/8 to 9/1 (I don't bet outside those prices very often) during August to October.

Over the last four seasons, Tom has so far supplied me with 161 qualifiers, bearing 39 winners (24.2% SR) and 100.7pts (+62.5% ROI) profit, from which the following are relevant today...

  • 37/138 (26.8%) for 115.4pts (+86.3%) off a mark (OR) of 65-100
  • 20/81 (24.7%) for 59.3pts (+73.2%) ridden by Richard Kingscote (who inevitably pops up)
  • 11/48 (22.9%) for 22.4pts (+46.7%) at Class 4
  • 13/34 (38.2%) for 56.6pts (+166.4%) here at Haydock
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 26.7pts (+116.2%) over the minimum 5f trip
  • and 5 from 20 (25%) for 9.1pts (+45.5%) this year...

...the figures for 2019 suggest they're still winning, but the market is slowly cottoning on to this angle, but there was still enough juice in the price available...

...for me to suggest... a 1pt win bet on Wild Edric @ 4/1 BOG as offered by Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.45pm on Thursday (and also at BF/PP but non-BOG until 8.00am). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th July 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

5.40 Thirsk : Atletico @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Mid-division, driven over 2f out, ridden and stayed on to chase leaders inside final furlong, no impression)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tukhoom @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Firm ground worth £4852 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding has finished 2331 in his last four outings, all at this Class 5 grade and over trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs. He was a comfortable 4 lengths winner in 16-runner field last time out, 13 days ago and now makes his yard debut for David O'Meara.

You wouldn't need to be too clued up about racing to guess/assume that Danny Tudhope will be in the saddle today and the trainer/jockey partnership continues to churn out winners. This is a tried and tested partnership and their success has been well documented by myself and many others, so I won't delve too deeply there today (I hear a collective sigh of relief from the readers).

Both rider and handler come here in great form, Danny of course had a great Royal Ascot and whilst his 30-day stats are impressive at 28 from 107 (26.2% SR), his form has improved further more recently with 15 winners from 49 (30.6%) over the past fortnight rising to 12/28 (42.9%) in the past week : here is a man at the top of his game.

Mr O'Meara, unsurprisingly, also continues to clock up the winners and whilst not quite as spectacular as his jockey, an 8 from 35 (22.9% SR) record over the past week isn't to be sniffed at. This invariably means that they've partnered up well of late and over the last three weeks alone the combo is 5 from 16 (31.25% SR) for 5.17pts (+32.3% ROI) with horses sent off at Evens to 9/2, which is where we should be today.

The only surprise to me about the partnership is that it's still profitable to follow. I expect this won't last for too much longer and we'll need to look for niche angles to exploit the market (thankfully, that's how I work!).

Now, it's worth knowing (if not concentrating on) the fact that David O'Meara's runners who won LTO are 36 from 202 (17.8%) on the Flat over the last 3 (inc. this one) seasons, but as he's only had this horse for less than a fortnight, it's probably more relevant to look at how he fares with new arrivals to the yard and they are 24 from 220 (10.9% SR) for 175.9pts (+79.9% ROI) since the start of 2017.

That strike rate might not look the best, but as a starting point for blind backing, 1 in 10 isn't bad at all for new recruits to a yard. Obviously we want to see better numbers than that, so the following logical angles can be applied today, as from those 220 newbies...

  • 20/154 (13%) for 182.5pts (+118.5%) from male runners
  • 18/129 (14%) for 233.9pts (+181.3%) from April to July
  • 13/79 (16.9%) for 139.4pts (+176.4%) with Danny Tudhope aboard
  • 12/113 (10.6%) for 125.3pts (+110.9%) at Class 5
  • 8/72 (11.1%) for 89pts (+123.6%) in handicaps
  • and 4/31 (12.9%) for 15.4pts (+49.7%) from horses in David's care for less than two months

...from which, here's one of those niche angles we're likely to need going forward...

...David O'Meara's new male recruits ridden by Danny Tudhope in April-July (simple enough, isn't it?) are 10/39 (25.6% SR) for 164.4pts (+421.4% ROI) over the last three years, including 7/27 (25.9%) for 86.1pts (+318.8%) at Classes 4-6.

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Tukhoom @ 7/2 BOG as offered by pretty much everyone at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th June 2019

Thursday's pick was...

5.00 Hamilton : Everkyllachy @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Tracked leaders, effort 2f out, soon ridden and every chance, kept on same pace final furlong)

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.25 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tricky Dicky @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner (was 11), Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good to Soft ground worth £4852 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding is having a decent season so far, having 2 wins and 2 places from his last five runs, taking his overall career tally to 8 wins and a further 13 places from 44 and when you consider that at the lower reaches of the handicap game where the same horses race and beat each other on a regular basis, any runner with a win strike rate of 18.2% and a overall place record of 47.7% is worth a second look at least.

A deeper analysis of his 44 runs to date shows that he might very well be suited by today's race conditions, as he has...

  • 16 places (inc 7 wins) from 31 efforts over this 6f trip
  • 12 places (inc 6 wins) from 18 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 12 places (inc 5 wins) from 26 on a straight track
  • 11 places (inc 5 wins) from 22 during May to August
  • and 7 places (inc 3 wins) from 10 when rested for just 1-2 weeks since his last run...

...whilst in handicaps over a straight 6f in a field of 9-13 runners Tricky Dicky is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 65.9pts (+1097.5% ROI), figures admittedly skewed by a winner paying 60/1 at Betfair SP, but that doesn't alter the strike rate!

He is trained by the in-form (8/39 over the last two weeks) Roger Fell, whose Haydock handicappers sent off at 7/1 and shorter are 6 from 16 (31.25% SR) for 18.4pts (+115% ROI) and whilst that's not a massive sample size, it does throw up some interesting data based around today's type of race, including...

  • male runners at 6/15 940%) for 19.4pts (+129.3%)
  • less than 3 weeks after their last run : 6/13 (46.2%) for 21.4pts (+164.6%)
  • 4-7 yr olds are 6/11 (54.5%) for 23.4pts (+212.7%)
  • at 6-10 days since last run : 4/9 (44.4%) for 12.65pts (+140.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/10 (30%) for 3.93pts (+39.3%)
  • in June : 3/6 (50%) for 9.81pts (+163.4%)
  • and those ridden by today's jockey Ben Sanderson are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 7.29pts (+243%)...

...whilst based around the above...4-7 yr old males at 6-20 days since last run = 6/10 (60% SR) for 24.4pts (+244% ROI) and these include 4/10 at 6-10 dslr, 3/5 at Class 5, 3/4 in June and 2/3 for Ben Sanderson...

...and the Class 5 runners at 6-10 dslr are 3/4 (75% SR) for 9.93pts (+248.1% ROI) from which Ben is 1 from 1 and there's a 1 from 1 record in June...

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Tricky Dicky @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.35pm on Thursday, although Hills (non-BOG until midnight) were offering 9/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.25 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th May 2019

Friday's pick was...

7.50 Nottingham : Give It Some Teddy @ 3/1 BOG 6th at 11/2 (Mid-division, effort over 2f out, one pace and no impression over 1f out)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.55 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Northern Beau @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3f on Good worth £9747 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, at the end of what has been a trying/tough week, I'm siding with an in-form mare who was an impressive winner from out of the handicap last time around.

In fact, this 6yr old mare has finished 22121 in her last five starts and won a Class 2 contest at Cheltenham when last seen 23 days ago, despite being 7lbs out of the handicap. I'd expect her to relish the extra yardage here today and a drop in class should also help.

She's by Canford Cliffs, whose jumpers are 30 from 196 (15.3% SR) for 25.7pts (+13.1% ROI) to date and these include of relevance today...

  • at trips of 2m to 2m5f : 28/179 (15.5%) for 35pts (+19.6%)
  • on Good ground : 19/96 (19.8%) for 22.1pts (+23%)
  • after a break of 21-30 days : 6/36 (16.6%) for 21pts (+58.4%)
  • and at Class 3 : 6/18 (33.3%) for 5.14pts (+28.5%)

...whilst those racing over 2m to 2m5f on Good ground at Class 3 are 5 from 13 (38.5% SR) for 7.86pts (+60.4% ROI), with 4 winners from 7 (57.1%) for 6.21pts (+88.7%) from those who raced in the previous 25 days.

It's also worth noting that since 2014, handicap chasers trained by Michael Scudamore who won a handicap chase LTO in the previous 30 days are 9 from 32 (28.1% SR) for 3.7pts (+11.6% ROI), including...

  • those sent off shorter than 4/1 : 8/19 (42.1%) for 6.2pts (32.6%)
  • 6/7 yr olds are 7/16 (43.75%) for 15.43pts (+96.4%)
  • females are 5/14 (35.7%) for 6.75pts (+48.2%)
  • 21-30 days since last run : 4/14 (28.6%) for 6.97pts (+49.8%)
  • on Good ground : 3/12 (25%) for 5.8pts (48.3%)
  • and at Class 3 : 3/9 (33.3%) for 1.35pts (+15%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Northern Beau @ 10/3 BOG which was generally available at 7.00pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.55 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th March 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.00 Taunton : Oxwich Bay @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 9/4 (Chased leaders in 4th, pushed along after 3 out, weakened on long run before next)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dartford Warbler 15/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Veterans Handicap Chase for 10yo+ over 2m7f on Soft (Heavy in places) worth £8058 to the winner... 

Why?

So, it's the old boys on show here and with very little in the way of decent, recent form on show from this 10-runner field, our boy's 3 wins and 2 places from 8 starts over the last 9 months stands out quite starkly.

He has 9 career wins to date, broken down with this contest in mind as follows...

  • 7 within 3 weeks of his last run
  • 5 at Class 4, 5 in fields of 8-11 runners, 5 going left handed
  • 4 over fences, 4 under Danny Cook's steering
  • 3 on Soft ground
  • and 2 as a 12 yr old

As intimated above, Danny Cook will be in the saddle and his record riding for trainer Sue Smith is quite remarkable, as the partnership is actually profitable to back blindly after over 600 outings! More accurately, they are 116/643 (18% SR) for 125.9pts (+19.6% ROI) together and in the context of this race, those 643 runners can be filtered as follows...

  • males are 114/611 (18.7%) for 147.9pts (+24.2%)
  • in races worth less than £13,000 : 102/533 (19.1%) for 102.3pts (+19.2%)
  • in fields of 6-12 runners : 88/460 (19.1%) for 162.3pts (+35.3%)
  • in handicaps : 91/450 (20.2%) for 102.7pts (+22.8%)
  • in chases : 78/372 (21%) for 42.3pts (+11.4%)
  • unplaced LTO : 69/361 (19.1%) for 205pts (+56.8%)
  • Soft/Heavy ground : 73/359 (20.3%) for 68.25pts (+19%)
  • Class 4 : 57/291 (19.6%) for 67.9pts (+23.2%)
  • 16-25 days since last run : 36/177 (20.3%) for 35.5pts (+20%)
  • at Haydock : 10/63 (15.9%) for 65.6pts (+104.2%)
  • and in 2019 alone : 13/54 (24.1%) for 30pts (+55.6%)

...and from the above...male hcp chasers in fields of 6-12 runners competing for £4-13k on Soft ground = 24/70 (34.3% SR) for 47.4pts (+67.7% ROI), including...

  • within 45 days of last run : 22/57 (38.6%) for 54.1pts (+94.9%)
  • Class 4 : 12/40 (30%) for 12.76pts (+31.9%)
  • Class 4 within 45 days : 11/30 (36.7%) for 19.7pts (+65.7%)
  • in 2019 : 2/5 (40%) for 9.12pts (+182.4%)
  • and in 2019 at Class 4 within 45 days of last run = 2/2 (100%) for 12.12pts (+606%) : both by today's pick Dartford Warbler!

Finally (!) and more generally, since the start of 2014 in UK Class 3-5 handicap chases, males who won two starts ago and are now running less than 3 weeks after finishing fourth last time out are 36/137 (26.3% SR) for 156.7pts (+114.4% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dartford Warbler 15/2 BOG which was available from Hills at 5.20pm on Tuesday evening, whilst Betfair were offering 8/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd December 2018

Friday's Pick was...

1.10 Uttoxeter : Deebaj @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up towards rear on outside, not fluent 8th and pushed along, headway before 3 out, close 3rd when mistake last, stayed on, but beaten by a neck and a nose)

Satruday's pick runs in the...

1.35 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ontopoftheworld @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft ground worth £9747 to the winner... 

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding has been in sparkling form this year, achieving a top 3 finish in each of his last seven runs, including four wins!

He's by Desert King, whose NH runners are 13 from 52 (25% SR) for 22.4pts (+43% ROI) over trips of 2m1f and shorter since the start of 2017.

And he's trained by Peter Bowen, whose chasers are 88 from 408 (21.6% SR) for 125.6pts (+30.8% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2016, which is a remarkable record and includes of relevance here...

  • males : 83/386 (21.5%) for 125.3pts (+32.5%)
  • at 9/4 to 10/1 : 64/262 (24.4%) for 167.3pts (+63.9%)
  • males at 9/4 to 10/1 : 62/250 (25%) for 163.2pts (65.3%)
  • 11-20 dslr : 38/112 (33.9%) for 116pts (+103.6%)
  • males at 9/4 to 10/1 at 11-20 dslr : 27/67 (40.3%) for 85.05pts (+126.9%)
  • on Soft : 18/80 (22.5%) for 14.7pts (+18.4%)
  • males at 9/4 to 10/1 on Soft : 11/41 (26.8%) for 33.6pts (+81.9%)
  • and males at 9/4 to 10/1 on Soft at 11-20 dslr : 4/10 (40%) for 8.97pts (+89.7%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Ontopoftheworld @ 7/1 BOG, as was available from Bet365, SkyBet & BetVictor at 6.50pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.35 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th October 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

4.40 Brighton : Arcanista @ 13/2 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Mid-division, headway over 1f out, chased leaders approaching final furlong, never able to challenge)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lightning Attack @ 6/1 or 11/2 BOG  

...in a 14-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Heavy ground worth £4787 to the winner...  

Why?

Two runs on soft/heavy so far for this 2 yr old gelding have resulted in him making the frame on both occasions, so he shouldn't be unduly worried by the conditions here today. The step up from 6f to 7f has looked like one he needed to make, whilst crucially those two placed finished I just mentioned were both at Class 2 and this is a Class 5 contest!

The drop in class, the extra furlong and his aptitude with cut in the ground suggested to me that he might well have been overpriced, although the market hasn't yet agreed with me, perhaps he's the right price after all?

The booking of David Nolan for the ride is a positive to me, because he's had a good season here in the North West , winning 5 of 17 races at Haydock (29.4% SR) generating level stakes profits of 23.5pts (+138.3% ROI), all on male runners and including...

  • 4/16 (25%) for 22.34pts (+139.6%) in handicaps
  • no run on heavy, but 2/7 (28.6%) for 13.2pts (+188.5%) on soft
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 11.1pts (+369.8%) over this 7f course and distance
  • and 1 from 1 for 1.17pts on a 2 yr old.

David also has a decent record on Richard Fahey horses, a record that improves dramatically based on today's race conditions, which I'll now attempt to highlight. We'll start with the Fahey/Nolan record since 2012 which stands at 70 from 559 (12.5% SR) for 125.8pts (+22.5% ROI) : a more than acceptable strike rate and an excellent return from blind backing gives us a good starting point to be more specific, as these 559 runners include...

  • over trips of 5 to 10 furlongs : 64/468 (13.7%) for 176.4pts (+37.7%)
  • at odds of 4/1 to 10/1 : 35/231 (15.2%) for 62.3pts (+27%)
  • 2yr olds are 21/191 (11%) for 150.8pts (+79%)
  • at Class 5 : 25/190 (13.2%) for 86.5pts (+45.5%)
  • and over the last 12 months : 13/55 (23.6%) for 35.1pts (+63.8%)

And using distance / odds / age / class / dates to define the selections then leads me back to one of my stored micro systems that I'm happy to share with you today, namely...

...Fahey + Nolan + 2 to 4 yr olds + Class 4 to 6 + 5f to 1m2f + 4/1 to 10/1 + 2015 to 2018 = 21/92 (22.8% SR) for 81.8pts (+89% ROI), which in terms of today's contest gives us...

  • males at 18/68 (26.5%) for 75pts (+110.3%)
  • over 6/7 furlongs : 16/59 (27.1%) for 80.65pts (+136.7%)
  • in handicaps : 12/46 (26.1%) for 53.9pts (+117.2%)
  • at 4/1 to 6/1 : 15/42 (35.7%) for 57.2pts (+136.2%) today's only variable parameter
  • over 7 furlongs : 9/29 (31%) for 42.6pts (+146.8%)
  • in October : 3/11 (27.3%) for 18.3pts (+166.4%)
  • and in Nursery races : 2/10 (20%) for 9.81pts (+98.1%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Lightning Attack @ 6/1 or 11/2 BOG, as offered by Bet365 & SkyBet respectively at 5.40pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th August 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

3.30 Chepstow : Swendab @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Led after 1f, headed over 1f out, kept on same pace)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.10 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miss Mumtaz 9/4 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 5, Fillies' Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth £4852 to the winner... 

Why?

This 3 yr old filly might well be a seven-race maiden but having made the frame on 5 (3 of which were at a higher grade than today) of those 7 outings, she certainly is due a win and she ran particularly well last time out just six days ago and it is hoped that a first time visor might just eke a little more out of her here to break her duck.

Her trainer Ian Williams has been successful at this venue over the years, saddling up 27 winners from 176 (15.3% SR) for profits of 40pts (+22.% ROI) since 2008 and these include...

  • 23/75 (30.7%) for 59.48pts (+79.3%) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
  • 16/60 (26.7%) for 53.27pts (+88.8%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 10/52 (19.2%) for 39.83pts (+76.6%) on Good to Firm
  • 8/45 (17.8%) for 31.5pts (+70%) at Class 5
  • and 10/29 (34.5%) for 25.41pts (+87.6%) after resting for 10 days or less

This quick turnaround of a horse last seen 6 days ago is a successful strategy adopted by Ian Williams who has had 136 winners from 545 (24.95% SR) for 224.8pts (+41.25% ROI) profit since 2010 with horses turned back out just 4 to 10 days after their last run (resting not rusting, I call it) and of these 545 quick returners...

  • Handicaps : 113/438 (25.8%) for 253.8pts (+58%)
  • Flat : 50/178 (28.1%) for 69.2pts (+38.9%)
  • Flat Handicaps : 44/155 (28.4%) for 70.43pts (+45.44%)

...and finally, it;s worth looking at Ian's record with horses wearing a visor for the first time, as since 2010, this approach has found him 19 winners from 100 (19% SR) and profits of 87.19pts (+87.19% ROI), from which...

  • Handicaps : 15/84 (17.9%) for 86.7pts (+103.2%)
  • Flat : 12/43 (27.9%) for 91.7pts |(+213.2%)
  • Flat Handicaps : 9/38 (23.7%) for 89.39pts (+235.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Miss Mumtaz 9/4 BOGa price offered by 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.13pm on Wednesday. Bet365 however are offering 11/4 BOG so grab that if you can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!