Tag Archives: harry skelton

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

2.55 Catterick : Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 10/3 (Led until slow 5th, soon ridden, led 8th, headed before 3 out, one pace)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2,05 Ludlow:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 2, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m on soft ground worth £16,458 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, we're with the Skeltons today and their 6 yr old gelding who was won 7 of his last 10 outings and is 9 from 20 in his entire career, including 3 from 5 over fences and...

  • 8 from 16 with Harry in the saddle
  • 8 from 10 in fields of 3-8 runners
  • 7 from 16 over trips shorter than 2m1f
  • and 7 from 13 at 11-35 days since last run.

He has won on soft ground and also over course and distance and in fact won on soft over C&D last time out, when comfortably clear by nine lengths! And referring back to the above numbers, he is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 3.62pts (+60.4% ROI) when Harry rides him in fields of 3-8 runners over trips shorter than 2m1f at 11-35 dslr.

Both Harry and trainer Dan have good records here at Ludlow, but (a) that's fairly common knowledge and (b) it's actually highlighted on your race card via the green C1 and C5 icons, so I won't go there today.

Instead I'm going to focus on the fact that since 2014, Dan's former C&D winners sent off within 45 days of an LTO win anywhere are 19 from 41 (46.3% SR) for 11.23pts (+27.4% ROI) at odds of 6/1 and shorter, from which, they are...

  • 19/38 (50%) for 14.23pts (+37.5%) with Harry in the saddle
  • 18/34 (52.9%) for 17.08pts (+50.2%) who won over C&D LTO
  • 16/28 (57.1%) for 10.75pts (+38.4%) since the start of 2017
  • 16/26 (61.5%) for 21.01pts (+80.8%) with 5-7 yr olds
  • 11/25 (44%) for 10.67pts (+42.7%) in handicaps
  • 9/14 (64.3%) for 7.9pts (+56.4%) over fences
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 2.46pts (+22.4%) stepping up a class
  • and 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.61pts (+108.7%) on soft ground...

...whilst when Harry has ridden the 5-7 yr old LTO C&D winners from above since the start of 2017, they are 13/16 (81.25% SR) for 17.53pts (+109.6% ROI) and these include 8 from 10 in handicaps, 8 from 8 over fences, 4 from 5 stepping up a class, 4 from 4 in handicap chases and 2 from 2 on soft ground...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Unibet at 5.25pm on Monday. Do use BOG if possible, as this one might drift a little, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th March 2019

Friday's pick was...

3.05 Lingfield : Warrior's Valley @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Pressed winner, outpaced 2f out, driven and stayed on inside final furlong, just held near finish, beaten by a neck)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.05 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Zamparelli 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on Good ground worth £4494 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding was a winner over 3m0.5f in another Class 4 contest when last seen at Market Rasen 16 days ago and is now 3 from 8 over fences, including 3 from 4 after a break of 16-30 days and 2 from 6 at this grade.

He became of further interest to me when popping up on my Dan Skelton chasers micro-system, where I look for Class 3-5 handicap chasers sent of at odds of 11/10 to 11/1, because such runners are 108 from 458 (23.6% SR) for 71.4pts (+15.6% ROI). Of course, I'm not suggesting you back all of them, but it's a good starting point.

To help narrow down the number of bets, the following logical angles are at play today...

  • males are 97/414 (23.4%) for 71.6pts (+17.3%)
  • in races worth less than £8,000 : 93/360 (25.8%) for 82.9pts (+23%)
  • those ridden by Harry Skelton are 85/355 (23.9%) for 45.6pts (+12.9%)
  • from March to November : 90/349 (25.8%) for 88.7pts (+25.4%)
  • since the start of 2017 : 62/239 (25.9%) for 77.7pts (+32.5%)
  • on Good ground : 65/232 (28%) for 85.4pts (+36.8%)
  • those returning from a short 16-30 day break are 46/168 (27.4%) for 74.4pts (+44.3%)
  • 7 yr olds are 29/90 (32.20%) for 65.6pts (+72.9%)
  • whilst those racing over trips of 2m7.5f to 3m1.5f are 22/78 (28.2%) for 46.5pts (+59.6%)

...and if you just wanted around 25 bets a year from an angle, then...

...2016-19 / March to August / males ridden by Harry Skelton / races worth £8k or less = 27/81 (33.3% SR) for 42.4pts (+52.4% ROI), including 22 from 60 (36.7%) for 40.2pts (+67%) on Good ground.

More generally, aside from the trainer's excellent numbers above...since the start of 2013 in UK Class 4 handicap chases, males sent off at 8/1 or shorter within 3 weeks of winning another Class 4 handicap chase LTO are 62 from 212 (29.3% SR) for 52.2pts (+24.6% ROI), including 14 from 40 (35%) for 36.8pts (+92%) since the start of 2018...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Zamparelli 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 5.05 Uttoxeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

6.45 Wolverhampton : Power Of Life @ 7/1 BOG 11th at 9/2 (Led until 8f out, settled tracking leaders over 6f out, weakening when hung left over 1f out )

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Warwick:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ange Des Malberaux @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m1½f on Good To Soft ground worth £5198 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 9 yr old gelding in excellent form, having won four of his last six starts (inc 3 wins from his last 4 over fences) culminating in him landing the Class 3 Lincolnshire National by 5 lengths on Boxing Day at Market Rasen. A drop in both trip and class await him today and I expect another bold show, especially considering...

...as his trainer Dan Skelton has got his horses going really well right now, winning 15 of 74 (20.3% SR) for 48pts (+64.8% ROI) over the last 30 days with that record improving to 7/28 (25%) for 5.9pts (+21%) in the last fortnight, whilst since the start of 2015, the chasers he has sent here to Warwick have won 15 of 42 (35.7% SR) for profits of 7.09pts (+17.3% ROI) backed blindly.

Now, that's not the biggest sample size I've ever used, but Warwick isn't the busiest of tracks from a chasing perspective and of interest today from those runners...

  • jockey Harry Skelton is 14/32 (43.8%) for 16.09pts (+50.3%)
  • handicappers are 10/29 (34.5%) for 7.66pts (+26.4%)
  • those sent off at 4/1 or shorter are 15/26 (57.7%) for 23.09pts (+92.3%)
  • those racing after less than a month's rest are 11/24 (45.8%) for 11.58pts (+48.2%)
  • Class 4 : 8/15 (53.3%) for 9.38pts (+67%)
  • class droppers are 5/11 (45.5%) for 6.13pts (+55.7%)
  • and on Good to Soft ground : 7/10 (70%) for 14.5pts (+145%)

...whilst from the above...Harry Skelton on sub-9/2 handicappers with a run in the previous month = 9/13 (69.2% SR) for 18.28pts (+140.6% ROI), from which...

  • Class 4 = 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.37pts (+133.8%)
  • Good to Soft = 3/3 (100%) for 7.85pts (+261.6%)
  • Class droppers : 2/2 (100%) for 5.05pts (+252.5%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Ange Des Malberaux @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by half a dozen firms at 2.00am on Monday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. A quick headsup about the next couple of picks : I'm away for the weekend from tomorrow afternoon, so Matt's in the hotseat for Saturday's pick and I'll be doing Monday's pick when I get home, but it won't appear until after midnight Sunday at the earliest! Sorry for any inconvenience caused.

Stat of the Day, 6th October 2018

Friday's Pick was...

7.45 Wolverhampton : Barnaby Brook @ 10/3 BOG 8th at 20/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out) - something clearly amiss here, this was never a stone last 20/1 shot.

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Notnow Seamus @ 10/3 BOG  

In a 7-runner, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m3f on Good ground, worth £9495 to the winner... 

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has finished 11121 in his last 5 runs, all in handicap hurdle contests (1121 under today's jockey Harry Skelton) and whilst this is a tougher assignment, he's in imperious form as demonstrated by his win LTO at Uttoxeter 24 days ago, when he cruised home by 18 lengths, unchallenged and unextended.

The Dan/Harry Skelton angle is a well worn path that continues to bear fruit and I've mentioned it often enough that you're probably sick of seeing the numbers. So, I'll take it on trust that you're happy to proceed with my repeating the figures and we'll find some other angles to back up our selection.

Let's start with the sire, Notnowcato, as his offspring are 34/166 (20.5% SR) over hurdles since the start of 2015 and backed blindly to a £10 stake have generated £1081.10 profit at Betfair SP after an assumed 5% commission at an ROI of 65.1%. This alone is an excellent starting point, any blind approach that pays well is good!

Amongst those 166 runners of relevance today...

  • males are 31/154 (201.1%) for 103.1pts (+66.9%)
  • over trips of 2m5f and shorter : 31/126 (24.6%) for 122.7pts (+97.4%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 18/98 (18.4%) for 83.1pts (+84.8%)
  • on Good ground : 19/60 (31.7%) for 63.4pts (+105.6%)
  • during the final third of the year (Sept-Dec) : 17/58 (29.3%) for 105.8pts (+182.4%)
  • in 2018 so far : 11/34 (32.4%) for 35.2pts (+103.5%)
  • 7/8 yr olds are 6/26 (23.1%) for 8.85pts (+34%)
  • and those rated (OR) 140 to 149 are 8 from 9 (88.9%) for 23.24pts (+258.2%)

The horse is also of interest to me because I do like to back runners who won pretty comfortably last out and Notnow Seamus was flagged up as a qualifier for a microsystem of mine that looks far more complicated in print than it is in application! Basically it revolves around 5-11 yr olds who won a handicap hurdle LTO by more than 4 lengths.

Such runners are 192 from 597 (32.1% SR) for 181.3pts (+30.4% ROI) since the start of 2013 when the following (and here's where it gets a little more complex!) conditions have been met...UK hcp hurdle race / trip of 3m or shorter / Class 2 to 5 / an OR increased by 0 to 14lbs from LTO / same class or up by 1 from LTO / same trip or down by 0.5 to 2 furlongs from LTO... And with today's race in mind, those 597 qualifiers are...

  • Up by 1 class : 59/251 (23.5%) for 33.2pts (+13.2%)
  • Won by 10 to 20 lengths LTO : 48/130 (36.9%) for 62.8pts (+48.3%)
  • Those dropping back in trip by 1f are 28/86 (32.6%) for 25.9pts (+30.2%)
  • at Class 2 : 16/55 (29.1%) for 22.1pts (+40.2%)
  • at this 2m3f trip : 9/33 (27.3%) for 9.64pts (+29.2%)
  • and those with a mark (OR) raised 12lbs from LTO are 10/29 (34.5%) for 25.2pts (+87%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Notnow Seamus @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 5.55pm on Friday evening and still readily available at 10.00am on Saturday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

5.15 Doncaster : Muatadel @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Prominent, lost place when ridden 2f out, hampered 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, not reach leaders)

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.55 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Notnow Seamus 11/4 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has won three of his last six starts and comes here on a hat-trick after a course and distance success here at Uttoxeter under today's jockey in this grade 26 days ago, taking his hurdling record to include the following...

  • 3/6 on good ground, 3/6 going left handed, 3/5 in handicaps
  • 3/5 at Class 4, 3/5 without his hood, 3/4 within 30 days of his last run
  • 2/4 with a tongue tie, 2/3 in fields of 8-11 runners, 2/2 at 2m4f/2m4.5f
  • 1/1 here at Uttoxeter, 1/1 over C&D

Whilst over the last 30 days...

  • trainer Dan Skelton is 20/57 (35.1% SR)
  • jockey Harry Skelton is 20/54 (37.0% SR)
  • and together they are 20/54 (37.0% SR)

...and over the past fortnight...

  • trainer Dan is 9/29 (31% SR)
  • jockey Harry is 9/27 (33.3% SR)
  • and together they are 9/27 (33.3% SR)

...and here at Uttoxeter since the start of 2015...

  • Dan is 41/134 (30.6% SR) for 51.6pts (+38.5% ROI)
  • Harry is 43/107 (40.2% SR) for 111.9pts (+104.6% ROI)
  • and together they are 40/94 (42.6% SR) for 89.5pts (+95.2% ROI)

...and of these 94 runners...

  • from May to September : 35/80 (43.8%) for 77.1pts (+96.3%)
  • in handicaps : 27/67 (40.3%) for 80.42pts (+120%)
  • at Class 4/5 : 33/72 (45.8%) for 75.77pts (+105.2%)
  • on Good ground : 27/60 (45%) for 73.2pts (+122%)
  • over hurdles : 25/53 (47.2%) for 78.8pts (+148.7%)
  • 7-9 yr olds are 21/44 (47.7%) for 79.2pts (+180%)
  • and LTO winners are 17/30 (56.7%) for 24.6pts (+82.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Notnow Seamus 11/4 BOGa price available from BetVictor, Boylesports, Coral & Ladbrokes at 8.50pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Uttoxeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th June 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.15 Brighton : Strictly Carter @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Close up, ridden and headway over 1f out, soon every chance, one pace final furlong)

Next up is Wednesday's...

2.20 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Get Ready Freddy @ 4/1 BOG

An 11-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase  for 5yo+ over 2m½f  on Good ground worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?

Well, we have an 8 yr old gelding with 3 wins and a place from his seven previous attempts over the larger obstacles, including...

  • 3 wins & a place from 6 at trips of 2m to 2m1f
  • 3 wins & a place from 5 in handicaps
  • 2 wins & a place from 4 for trainer Dan Skelton
  • 2 wins & a place from 4 for jockey Harry Skelton
  • 2 wins & a place from 4 wearing a tongue tie
  • 1 from 2 here at Worcester
  • 1 from 2 over course and distance

The yard is in decent form too with 18 winners from 67 (26.9% SR) over the last 30 days returning level stakes profits of 9.42pts at an ROI of 14.1%, from which...

  • Harry has ridden 17 winners from 59 (28.8%) for 4.54pts (+7.7%)
  • handicappers are 14/52 (26.9%) for 14.8pts (+28.5%)
  • chasers are 8/23 (34.8%) for 4.63pts (+20.1%)
  • and Harry is 7/21 (33.3%) for 5.3pts (+25.2%) on handicap chasers

...whilst more long-term, since the start of 2015 Dan Skelton's chasers are 9 from 34 (26.5% SR) for 25.4pts (+74.8% ROI) here at Worcester and these include of relevance today...

  • 7 winners from 29 (24.1%) for 25pts (+86.2%) with Harry in the saddle
  • 4 from 17 (23.5%) for 18.7pts (+109.7%) at Class 4
  • and 5 from 12 (41.7%) for 11.5pts (+95.9%) over this course and distance...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Get Ready Freddy @ 4/1 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th January 2018

Tuesday's Result :

3.00 Ludlow: Tb Broke Her @ 7/2 BOG WON at 4/1 Held up towards rear, not fluent 9th, headway on outside 17th, ridden before 4 out, left in lead 2 out, stayed on, clear towards finish to win by five lengths....

Next up is Thursday's...

1.30 Catterick:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Workbench @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m on Soft ground worth £8,058 to the winner...

Why?

Well, he might be 10 yrs old now, but this well-related (brother to Class 1 winners Sprinter Sacre, Saint Are & Dame Rose) gelding is still running well and has won two of his last five starts, including a win last time out 34 days ago wearing today's blinkers for the first time.

His trainer Dan Skelton had an excellent year last year with his chasers and since the start of 2017, those runners are 56/208 (26.9% SR) for 53pts (+25.5% ROI), including...

  • those ridden by Harry Skelton : 45/156 (28.9%) for 65.5pts (+42%)
  • after a rest of 3 weeks or more : 40/140 (28.6%) for 75.2pts (+53.7%)
  • over trips shorter than 2m2f : 22/67 (32.8%) for 37.5pts (+56%)
  • at Class 3 : 17/55 (30.9) for 24.6pts (+44.8%)
  • on soft ground : 15/44 (34.1%) for 7pts (+15.8%)

AND...from the above : those ridden by Harry Skelton over trips shorter than 2m2f after a rest of 3 weeks or more = 14/38 (36.8% SR) for 41.8pts (+109.9% SR), of which Class 3 runners are 5/14 (35.7%) for 17.74pts (+126.7%).

PLUS...more long-term, based on today's race conditions, Dan Skelton has the following strike rates....

  • 30.4% here at Catterick over the last 3 years (7 from 23)
  • 23% from LTO winners over the last 5 years (99 from 431)
  • 18.9% from those racing over trips shorter than 2m2f (209 from 1104)

Dan's LTO winners racing over trips shorter than 2m2f have a 26.1% strike rate (49 from 188), whilst more generally, 10 yr old chasers from the sire Network are 5/15 (33.3% SR) for 15.7pts (+104.7% ROI)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Workbench @ 7/2 BOG which was widely on offer with BetVictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th December 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.00 Lingfield : Attain @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, not quicken inside final furlong

Next up is Thursday's...

3.15 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Workbench @ 11/2 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m2.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £8,862 to the winner...

And a 9 yr old gelding in decent nick, having won two of his last five starts including a win last time out at Sandown 6 days ago in this grade.

Now he's trained by Dan Skelton and almost inevitably ridden by Harry Skelton and over the 6 years of SotD, I've lost track of the number of times I've advised you to keep an eye on this pair, so in the interests of brevity and/or sanity, I'll not bore you by repeating myself!

One angle about the Skelton "boys", I might not have mentioned previously (or recently anyway!) however, is this quite relevant one...

...Dan + Harry + Males + Top 4 finish LTO 4-15 days earlier + April to December = 36/102 (35.3% SR) for 12.34pts (+12.1% ROI) when sent off at odds of 7/1 and shorter. So, basically males turned back out fairly quickly after a decent run and not now considered a longshot.

Of these 102 qualifiers...

  • LTO winners are 20/50 (40%) for 1.79pts (+3.6%), tending to get well backed, so we need our early prices!
  • chasers are 15/40 (37.5%) for 10.13pts (+25.3%)
  • over trips of 2m1.5f to 2m4.5f : 16/37 (43.2%) for 21.48pts (+58.1%)
  • 8/9 yr olds are 10/25 (40%) for 8.41pts (+33.6%)
  • and on Good to Soft ground : 6/17 (35.3%) for 5.46pts (+32.1%)

Whilst more generally, in handicap chases, 9 & 10 yr olds priced at 15/8 to 13/2 within 7 days of their last run are 106/419 (25.3% SR) for 90.2pts (+21.5% ROI) since 2009, from which...

  • over trips of 2m to 2.75m : 81/225 (29.5%) for 101.6pts (+36.9%)
  • LTO winners are 35/120 (29.2%) for 42.6pts (+35.5%)
  • and LTO winners racing over 2m to 2.75m : 25/81 (30.9%) for 35.6pts (+44%)

..giving us... a 1pt win bet on Workbench @ 11/2 BOG which was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.30pm on Wednesday, with plenty of acceptable 5/1 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th November 2017

Friday's Result :

8.15 Chelmsford : Choral Clan @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 5/1 Led early, tracked leaders, effort on inside when not much room over 1f out, ridden and every chance inside final furlong, not quicken close home.

Next up is Saturday's...

1.40 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Early Retirement @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+, handicap hurdle over 3m 0.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,574 to the winner.

And a 5 yr old gelding who comes here on a hat-trick after a couple of wins at Southwell back in March and then again just 23 days ago.

His trainer Caroline Bailey doesn't send many here to Wetherby for some reason, but I'm sure it's not because of results, because since 2010 her runners are 8/38 (21.1% SR) for 43.7pts (+115% ROI), including...

  • males @ 7/36 (19.4%) for 37.5pts (+104.1%)
  • in hcps : 6/32 (18.75%) for 5.96pts (+18.6%)
  • over trips of 2m4.5f and beyond = 8/28 (28.6%) for 53.7pts (+191.8%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 8/1 = 7/24 (29.2%) for 17.8pts (+74%)
  • and at Class 4 : 6/18 (33.3%) for 50.25pts (+279.2%)

Jockey Harry Skelton bypasses Cheltenham to ride here today and hopefully he'll bring his great recent form with him that has seen him notch up 12 winners from 39 in the last two weeks. Closer inspection upon his record gives some explanation about why he might be here instead of HQ, as he's 21/52 (40.4% SR) for 24.5pts (+47.2% ROI) on this track since 2014, from which...

  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter = 21/43 (48.8%) for 33.5pts (+78%)
  • over hurdles = 10/27 (37%) for 8.7pts (+32.2%)
  • in handicaps = 10/23 (43.5%) for 21.3pts (+92.6%)
  • at Class 4 : 8/19 (42.1%) for 9.44pts (+49.7%)
  • and in November : 5/14 (35.7%) for 7.16pts (+51.1%)

And one last thing about the horse, he's by Daylami whose 5yr old handicap hurdlers are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 33.3pts (+104% ROI) over the last two years, with those priced shorter than 5/1 winning 7 of 17 (41.2%) for 7.6pts at an ROI of 44.8%.

...giving us ... a 1pt win bet on Early Retirement @ 3/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor & Paddy Power at 7.05pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th November 2017

Friday's Result :

1.30 Fontwell : Lady of Longstone @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4 Behind, headway 4 out, chased leaders next, every chance 2 out, kept on same pace closing stages, beaten by 1.25 lengths.

Next up is Saturday's...

2.15 Aintree

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Virgilio @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+, Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Good to Soft ground worth £46,425 to the winner.

..and an 8 yr old gelding trained by Dan Skelton, whose horses are in fine fettle right now with 9 winners and 11 placers from his 27 runners so far this month.

This 33.3% win strike rate has yielded 22.95pts profit at an ROI of 85% and with an overall place strike rate of some 74.1%, those numbers could have been even better with a bit more luck.

Of those 27 runners so far this month, 20 have been ridden by Harry Skelton, which has brought about 8 winners (40% SR) and 27.43pts profit at a return of 137.15% and today the Skeltons team up with a horse who has already won 6 of his 12 starts with another couple of placed efforts for good measure and he seems ideal for this contest today, because he is...

  • 5 wins + 2 places from 11 under Harry Skelton (3+2/7 in chases)
  • 6+1/10 going left handed (3+1/5 in chases)
  • 6/7 at odds of 4/1 and shorter (3/4 in chases)
  • 4+1/7 at 2m3f/2m4f (1+1/3 in chases)
  • 3+2/7 in chases
  • 6/6 as fav/jt fav (3/3 in chases)
  • 4/5 in handicaps (1/1 in chases)
  • 3/5 here at Aintree (1/2 in chases)
  • 4/4 at Class 2 (2/2 in chases)
  • 3/3 after a break of 4 months or longer (1/1 in chases)
  • 1+1/2 on Good to Soft ground (both chases)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Virgilio @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 8.05pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Aintree

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!