Tag Archives: Harry Bannister

Stat of the Day, 10th February 2018

Friday's Result :

4.45 Chelmsford : Volpone Jelois @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1 Tracked leader, driven to challenge over 2f out, stayed on same pace approaching final furlong...

We end another successful week with Saturday's...

4.50 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 2m handicap hurdle on soft ground worth £4,549 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding was a winner over 3m in his final Point to Point race before starting his career under rules with three straight wins, all at 2m/2m0.5f on soft or heavy at Class 4 under today's jockey Harry Bannister.

So although his effort for a 4-timer is also a handicap debut, he should at least be accustomed to the race conditions.

His trainer, Harry Whittington, is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 12.12pts (+48.5% ROI) with handicap debutants and these include...

  • 21-150 days since last run : 7/20 (35%) for 17.12pts (+85.6%)
  • over hurdles : 4/18 (22.2%) for 1.09pts (+6%)
  • at Class 4 : 2/9 (22.2%) for 2.88pts (+32%)
  • on soft/heavy : 2/5 (40%) for 3.14pts (+62.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.55pts (+318.2%)

That stat re: LTO winners isn't really a surprise, as Harry's LTO winners are 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 11.46pts (+81.8% ROI) in handicaps just since the start of 2017!

And, since 2013 in UK handicap hurdle contests, horses who won a Novice hurdle last time out in the previous 90 days, went on to score again on 162 of 893 (18.1%) for 146pts (+16.4%), including...

  • on handicap debut : 66/361 (18.3%) for 78.44pts (+21.7%)
  • 31-90 dslr : 54/304 (17.8%) for 95.04pts (+31.3%)
  • on soft ground : 40/226 (17.7%) for 40.1pts (+17.7%)
  • and here at Warwick : 5/23 (21.7%) for 10.54pts (+45.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th October 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.20 Exeter :  Eddy @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 2/1 : Held up mid-division, headway before 3 out, soon every chance, ridden and pressed winner before last, kept on and held towards finish, beaten by a length...

Wednesday's selection goes in the...

2.45 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pickamix @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

A Class 3, 5yo+ novices handicap chase contest over 2m7f on good ground...

...featuring a 6 yr old grey gelding who returned from a 21-week absence to finish as a runner-up on his chase debut LTO 19 days ago. He was only beaten by two lengths behind a former Gr1 hurdle winner rated at 143! Prior to this chasing bow, our boy had never been out of the frame in 7 NHF/Hurdle contests finishing 3113211 and to date he is...

  • 3 wins and a place from 6 on good ground
  • 4 wins and a place from 5 under jockey Harry Bannister
  • 3 wins and a place from 4 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 this year
  • 1 from 1 in a handicap
  • 1 from 1 at Class 3

Other reasons to back this one include...

1. Being trained by Charlie Mann whose horses are bang in form right now with 4 winners & 3 placers from his last 9 runners (10121P122) over the last couple of weeks or so and this is his only runner of the day. Since 2011, when having just one runner per day, Charlie is 73/455 (16% SR) for 140.6pts (+30.9% ROI)

2. Charlie's Class 3 to 5 handicappers with just one other run in the previous 90 days are 25/139 (18%) for 72pts (+51.8% ROI) since the start of 2010.

3. The Charlie Mann / Harry Bannister partnership is good for 24 winners from 94 efforts (25.5% SR) for 55.9pts (+59.4% ROI), from which...

  • in handicaps : 18/71 (25.4%) for 54.9pts (+77.3%)
  • in chases : 10/47 (21.3%) for 36pts (+76.6%)
  • and in hcp chases : 10/44 (22.7%) for 39pts (+88.7%)

4. Pickamix was sired by Sagamix, whose offspring are 16/38 (42.1% SR) for 33.1pts (+87.2% ROI) when priced at 15/2 or shorter since the start of 2015 including...

  • males at 14/25 956%) for 35.7pts (+142.8%)
  • in handicaps : 5/11 (45.5%) for 20.3pts (+184.2%)
  • over 2m5f to 3m : 3/9 (33.3%) for 8pts (+88.8%)
  • at Class 3 : 2/2 (100%) for 9.37pts (+468.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Pickamix @ 7/2 BOG, which was available from Betvictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.55pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD : Monday 09/03/15

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2015

Ballyheigue Bay's two length defeat in third place at 9/2 (adv 5/1) was possibly the highlight of a disappointing week for SotD.

I though he ran really well to overcome a series of jumping errors that might have cost him the race, but he plugged on gamely in a pulsating finish. Unfortunately there wasn't enough left in the tank after three miles and the final half furlong saw him slip out of contention.

Last week wasn't a good week by any stretch of the imagination, and I'm seeking a return to winning ways via an unlikely looking source on Monday in the...

4.50 Taunton:

Where a 5lb claimer jockey will ride a horse that has lost its last 11 runs and comes from an unheralded training yard. I'm probably not selling it to you just yet, but let me briefly explain why I think Green du Ciel is worth a punt at 11/2 BOG here.

1. He's trained by Brian Barr.

"Who?" might be the question on some lips and you'd be forgiven for asking. He's not the most famous trainer out there, nor does he have the biggest string of horses at his disposal, but what he does have, he does pretty well with.

Over the last three years his record in NH handicaps with runners priced below 12/1 is 7 winners from 28 (25% SR) for 15.2pts (+54.2% ROI) level stakes profits, whilst those sent off shorter than 7/1 are 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 11.6pts (+68.1% ROI), suggesting that Brian is worth following in the usual SotD range of prices.

2. He has lost his last 10 outings, since winning off a mark of 105.

He now runs off a mark of just 85 and the long losing run isn't necessarily a negative point, as since the start of 2011, Class 3 to 5 handicap chasers with 10 or more consecutive defeats behind then that now run at a lower mark than their last win have then returned to winning ways on 269 of 2226 (12.1% SR) occasions, clocking up 522.9pts (+23.5% ROI) profits in the process.

That is, of course, a lot of bets, so let's refine it...

...those priced 5/2 to 7/1 are 135/659 (20.5% SR) for 59.2pts (+9% ROI), of which those running off a mark 18 to 22lbs lower than that last win are 21/60 (35% SR) for 65.3pts (+108.9% ROI)

3. His jockey will be Harry Bannister.

And Harry is no ordinary 5lb claimer. I know from comments/emails that some of you don't like to back claimers, but Harry has an excellent record that's difficult to overlook. Since the start of 2013, he has ridden 27 winners from 156 starts, a decent 17.3% strike rate that has generated level stakes profits of 41.4pts at an ROI of 26.7%.

Those percentages would be acceptable to most jockeys, professionals and claimers alike, but they are improved further when isolating his performance in handicap company where he is 26/112 (23.2% SR) for 80.6pts (+72.6% ROI) and when his mount has been priced at odds of 9/4 to 8/1, he has 13 winners from 53 (24.5% SR) and profits of 19.5pts (+36.8% ROI).

He claims 5lbs today and when he has used a 5lb claim in the past, he is 10/41 (24.4% SR) for 26.5pts (+64.6% ROI) in handicap company with all 10 winners coming from the 24 runners priced at odds of 6/4 to 10/1. This subsequent 41.7% strike rate has yielded 43.5pts profit to date at an ROI of 181.2%

But, lets face reality for a moment. I'm more than happy with the stats supporting my selection of Green du Ciel, but he's not the strongest selection I've ever made. NH racing is pretty mediocre in the final few days before Cheltenham and I'd much rather have found a bet on the A/W, but there are no meetings today!

Green du Ciel does, however, offer us the potential for some value at the the prices available and some of you might consider a safety-first E/W approach, but for me, its a 1pt win bet on Green du Ciel at 11/2 BOG with Bet365. If you prefer to use SkyBet, they're offering the same deal and for the rest of the market...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.50 Taunton

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just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

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Stat of the Day, 26th December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 26th December 2014

There are hundreds of adjectives that I could use describe Reality Show's run on Monday, but as many of them aren't suitable for use in public, I'll just say it was awful!

On paper, he looked a really good pick and he travelled well enough until around the 2 pole when he still looked to have a chance if he got a wriggle on. Unfortunately, it was a that point that he began to resemble a car taken out of gear and allowed to "freewheel" home and as his rivals accelerated he folded tamely and went backwards through the pack.

So much so, that he finished 10th of 11 runners, just 2 lengths ahead of the last horse home and beaten by a good (Bad!) 32 lengths at 5/1, slightly shorter than our advised 11/2 odds.

Lots of racing to aim at today, although I'm not a massive fan of Boxing Day racing if I'm honest. I know Kempton has a good card today, but Boxing Day often offers quantity over quality, but all races, good or bad, do admittedly have a winner, so I'm hoping I've got one in the...

1.30 Fontwell:

Where Harry Bannister will ride the 7/2 BOG shot Beau Lake for trainer Suzy Smith.

The more eagle-eyed amongst you will remember I put up Little Boy Boru as my pick this time last week from the same jockey/trainer combo and we ended up with a fourth place finish after a rare misjudgement of the race's pace by this talented young jockey. We all make mistakes and I'm happy to give Harry a chance of redeeming himself.

In a week of little racing activity, both Suzy's and Harry's stats I used in last week's piece are relatively unchanged and are still equally valid and I've no qualms about re-using them! I won't give you a lengthy spiel here, as I realise you've probably got loads of racecards to study today (ours, here, of course, are the best around!), but briefly...

Harry has ridden for Suzy six times to date, winning twice and making the frame twice (171334).

Overall, since 1/1/2011 : Suzy is 36/241 (14.9% SR) for 134.7pts (+55.9% ROI) profit, whilst Harry is 23/134 (17.2% SR) for 48.2pts (+36% ROI).

In handicaps : Suzy is 30/170 (13.7% SR) for 89.5pts (+52.7% ROI), Harry is 22/96 (22.9% SR) for 81.4pts (+84.3% ROI).

Over hurdles : Suzy is 27/164 (16.5% SR) for 138.2pts (+84.3% ROI), Harry is 10/59 (16.95% SR) for 7.3pts (+12.4% ROI)

Whilst in handicap hurdles : Suzy is 26/128 (20.3% SR) for 104.2pts (+81.4% ROI) and Harry is 10/38 (26.3% SR) for 28.3pts (+74.5% ROI)

And if you backed all Suzy Smith's handicap hurdlers priced between 2/1 & 10/1 in the last four years you've have backed 20 winners from 84 (23.8% SR) runners and a £10 stake on each would have brought you level stakes profits of £618, a figure equivalent to 73.6% of your total outlay.

OK, they've good records, what about the horse?

Well Beau Lake's numbers stack up pretty well too. He was a course and distance winner on one of his two previous efforts here at Fontwell and he absolutely loves the mud. If a 113 record in his last runs on soft ground doesn't make that point, then a 15113 record on heavy ground should!

He has won 5 of 18 hurdles races to date with all five wins coming from his 10 starts at today's 2m 2.5f or shorter. He's also 5/10 in races of 10 runners or less and 11313 in his five contests featuring less than 7 runners. Last seen a fortnight ago also makes this an ideal time to run again, as in the last four years, his record when turned out within 25 days of his last run is 112111.

So, I'd say conditions were ideal for Beau Lake here today and those stats above allied to those of both the jockey and trainer suggest that a 1pt win bet on Beau Lake could be a good thing at 7/2 BOG with Paddy Power. Only three firms have priced this one up at the moment (midnight on Christmas Day!), so please do come back and...

...click here for the latest betting on the 1.30 Fontwell

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just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

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Stat of the Day, 19th December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th December 2014

Pull The Chord ran no sort of race at all at Exeter, his jumping was suspect and a final error 3 flights from home put paid to any lingering hope that he might actually get involved.

As it was, that last error seemed to deflate him and he quickly went backwards as he eventually came home as the last of five finishers (6 ran) at the same 3/1 price we'd advised, so nothing to report there. We're having a little bit of a lean run at present but SotD is a long-term project borne out by our figures over the last three years, but I'd still like to find the winner of today's...

3.05 Ascot:

Where I think Little Boy Boru is overpriced at the 13/2 BOG offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Coral, whilst Ladbrokes (non-BOG until 9.00am on raceday) are offering 7/1.

That's not to say I'm chasing a big pot to rescue my week, far from it, I never play that way. I just think there's some value in the price (he is 11/2 in places already) at the moment and there is both form and stats to back up the call.

I'm not going to overload you with stats and facts, there is the possibility that I might have been trying too hard of late and maybe pulling it back toward SotD basics is the key to getting the scoreboard ticking along in a more regular manner!

Our pick is trained by Miss Suzy Smith...

Who is profitable to back blindly and even more under certain (soon to be detailed!) circumstances. If, in fact, you'd backed every single one of Miss Smith's 239 runners over the last years to a £10 level stake, you'd have made yourself an attractive £1367 profit, the equivalent of 57.2% back on top of your stake money and that's because 36 (15.1%) of Suzy's runners were winners.

In handicap contests, her horses are 30/169 (17.8% SR) for 90.5pts (+53.5% ROI) profit, so not too dissimilar to the overall figures, whilst her hurdlers outperform the average by winning 27 of 163 races (16.6% SR) for 139.2pts (+85.4% ROI) profit.

What you don't want to be doing, however, is backing her hurdlers in non-handicap contests! They've won just 1 of 36 in the last four years, but conversely, it does mean that you should be backing her handicap hurdlers as a 26/127 (20.5% SR) record would testify. These winners have generated level stakes profits of 105.2pts to date at an ROI of 82.8%.

Those handicap hurdlers sent off in the 2/1 to 10/1 odds range have won 20 of 83 (24.1% SR) outings and have produced profits of 62.8pts (75.6% ROI). 

Our selection is to be ridden by Mr H.A.A. (Harry to us!) Bannister...

And whilst Suzy Smith is a trainer to follow, Harry is a jockey to follow too. Just 132 rides to date for harry, but 23 winners represent 17.4 of his rides and the 50.2pts level stakes profits are equivalent to 38.3% of stakes. His strike rate over hurdles is pretty similar to his overall record at 17.2% via a 10/58 record, but the level stakes profits of 8.3pts have led to a lower yield (14.3% ROI) than his average, but worth having!

In handicap races, Harry has an excellent 22/95 (23.2% SR) record, which has produced 82.4pts profits at an ROI of 87.7% and in handicap hurdles he has ridden 10 winners from 37 (27% SR) for 29.3pts (+79.1% ROI). As with Miss Smith, you should steer clear of Harry's non-handicap hurdle rides (0/21!). I suppose that if you're into laying (which I'm not!), there's a couple of micro systems there for you!

Little Boy Boru has been in great form since joining Suzy's team four starts ago. he was fourth of eight on his yard debut, but beaten by less than six lengths over 2m 6.5f on soft ground after 20 weeks off the track, so was probably entitled to have needed a run. He followed that up with back to back wins a Sandown & Plumpton last month (2m 4f soft, 2m 5f heavy) before running again three weeks ago at Newbury.

He was only third that day, but was only beaten by 4.5 lengths in a race of a far better standard than this one and he was in contention for most of the contest before tiring late on. I don't he saw the full 3m 0.5f trip out that day and a drop back to familiar territory at 2m 6f could well be the key here, as the cut in the ground holds no fears for him.

He comes here in good heart, runs for a trainer and jockey with good numbers behind and looks overpriced at 13/2 BOG to me. There's just about enough juice in the price to take an E/W bet if you wanted to, but my call today is a 1pt win bet on Little Boy Boru at 13/2 BOG and that can be from Bet365, BetVictor or Coral. The choice is yours, so...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.05 Ascot 

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

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Stat of the Day, 22nd November 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd November 2014

In what has proved to be a frustrating mini-run of defeats on the All-Weather, Memoria was placed fourth at 9/2 at Wolverhampton on Friday evening. She didn't run badly, but just got going a little too late for my liking and she was flying at the finish, making up ground with every stride.

She managed to close in to within a length and a half of the eventual winner, Gambino and  she really could have won this one with an earlier run, but that's how it goes sometimes.

I'm getting off the A/W in a bid to revitalise my fortunes, as we use up the last of the free hits we gained from Monday's 5/1 winner with a shot at Saturday's...

12.10 Haydock:

A Class 3 handicap hurdle over 2 miles, where I'm siding with Michael Easterby's Lightening Rod, who currently trades at 100/30 BOG with a couple of firms.

Michael has done pretty well in NH handicaps in recent times...

Since the start of 2011, he's had 18 winners from his 138 runners sent off at odds of 20/1 or shorter and whilst this is a fairly modest (by SotD standards!) strike rate of 8.9%, it has been instrumental in recording level stakes profits of 32.1pts at an ROI of 23.2%.

If we focus more towards today's type of race, however, we find that he has better figures, albeit from a smaller sample size, with handicap hurdlers priced in the 5/2 to 17/2 (ie roughly in line with my strategies), where these runners are 8/38 in the last three and a bit seasons with that 21.1% strike rate yileding profits of 26.6pt (+70.1% ROI).

He has a claimer jockey on board here...

And since 2009, his hurdlers have won 10 of 35 races (28.6% SR) when ridden by a claimer and priced between 2/1 and 7/1, as he should be today. These winners have generated profits of 33.1pts at an ROI of 94.7% to date and a win today should take us past the magical 100% barrier.

That claimer jockey is Harry Bannister...

...who has had a great start to life as a jockey, winning 21 of 119 races (17.7% SR) to date, producing level stakes profits of 57.6pts (+48.8% ROI) in the process with an excellent 14/72 (19.4% SR) record this year alone, which has generated 33.9pts (+47.8% ROI) profit.

In handicap races, Harry has ridden 20 winners from 82 (24.4% SR) for 89.8pts (+110.8% ROI) profit, of which 13/50 (26% SR) 51.1pts (+102.2% ROI) has happened this year.

Overall, over hurdles he is 9/31 (29% SR) for 31.4pts (+101.3% ROI).

He currently claims 5lbs, but that won't last long at the races he's rattling up the winners, having already ridden 6 winners from just 17 rides (35.3% SR) with a 5lb claim and these wins have yielded 33.9pts profit at an ROI of 199.7%.

It's also worth pointing out that he's 2/5 for 13.3pts when claiming 5lbs on one of Michael Easterby's horses.

Harry's in good touch at the moment, winning more than his fair share of races and the yard is going quite well too and in Lightening Rod, they've got a decent sort here today. Harry rode him on his seasonal reappearance at Wetherby over 16.5f on mid October off the back of a 10 months break and he ran really well first time up and was only headed on the run in to be beaten by a neck.

Lightening Rod then ran again at the end of last month over the same track and trip, but wasn't to be denied that day, when he not only won by 7 lengths quite comfortably but really strung the field out. Harry Bannister was in the saddle for that run too.

The runner-up and third placed horses have both run creditably and been placed since and although this is a tougher test, he seemed to have plenty left in the locker last time out.

We're not getting the 8/1 he won at last time, though, but if he travels as well as he normally does and gets a decent tow into the race, he could quite easily land the honours today at a pretty reasonable 100/30 BOG.

I've backed Lightening Rod at that price with Betfred, but you can get the same from BetVictor. He's a shade lower in most places and as low as 5/2 with Paddy Power, so I'd advise you to...

...click here for the latest betting on the 12.10 Haydock

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just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.