Tag Archives: Harrison Shaw

Stat of the Day, 28th August 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.20 Epsom : Swift Approval @ 9/2 6th at 9/2 (Chased leaders, lost place over 3f out, driven over 2f out, kept on inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.25 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Redrosezorro @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm/Good ground worth £4,075 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner last time out 23 days, when scoring at this class/trip at Carlisle and although up 5lbs for that win, the booking of jockey Harrison Shaw negates that rise, not that Harrison is an inferior replacement : he's already 3/13 at this venue this season and has ridden 2 winners from 8 for today's trainer Eric Alston (more on him shortly) this season.

The horse looks to have favourable conditions today, as his career record includes...

  • 5 wins, 5 places from 22 in a hood
  • 5 wins, 4 places from 16 in fields of 11-14 runners
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 6 at odds of 9/4 to 9/2
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 here at Catterick
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 9 over 6f
  • and 1 win plus 1 pace from 2 efforts over course and distance

Trainer Eric Alston is 7 from 19 (36.8% SR) for 36.74pts (+193.3% ROI) with handicappers sent off at 12/1 or shorter here at Catterick over the last three seasons, whilst during that same time period his overall record with LTO winners stands at 9/44 (20.5% SR) for 40.87pts (+92.9% ROI), including of note/relevance today....

  • 9/42 (21.4%) for 42.87pts (+102.1%) in handicaps
  • 8/36 (22.2%) for 43.66pts (+121.3%) on the Flat
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 60.01pts (+285.8%) in fields of 11-17 runners
  • 7/34 (20.6%) for 43.12pts (+126.8%) at the same trip as LTO
  • 7/34 (20.6%) for 14.33pts (+42.2%) within 25 days of the last run/win
  • 6/25 (24%) for 12.8pts (+51.2%) at the same class as LTO
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 23.59pts (+138.8%) from August to November
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 14.71pts (+113.2%) from previous C&D winners
  • 3/12 (25%) for 12.33pts (+102.7%) at Class 5
  • 3/10 (30%) for 20.48pts (+204.8%) from 5 yr olds
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 12pts (+300%) here at Catterick...

...whilst those competing in 11-17 runner Flat handicaps at the same class or one higher over the same trip or up 1f as an LTO win in the previous 25 days are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 30.27pts (+336.3% ROI) including Redrosezorro's own course and distance success in April 2018...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Redrosezorro @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.35pm on Tuesday (Although non-BOG until morning Hills were a full point bigger). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.25 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th August 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.55 Newbury : Space Ace @ 4/1 BOG  7th at 11/2 (In touch, ridden 2f out, weakened final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.50 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Highly Sprung @ 6/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Soft ground worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding has two wins and two places from his last six outings, culminating in a course and distance win last time out, 10 days ago under today's jockey Harrison Shaw.

He has actually won 5 times here from 13, making the frame on three further occasions with an excellent 5 wins, 2 places from 11 over course and distance.

His trainer Les Eyre has 17 winners from 64 (26.6% SR) for 27.1pts (+42.3% ROI) in handicaps since the start of 2016 with horses turned back out within a fortnight of a top 3 finish LTO, from which...

  • 16/43 (37.2%) for 46.3pts (+107.6%) at odds of 6/4 to 15/2
  • 14/56 (25%) for 26.6pts (+47.5%) on the Flat
  • 14/39 (35.9%) for 34.4pts (+88.2%) within 10 days of their last run
  • 9/25 (36%) for 21pts (+84%) over 5-6 furlongs
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 19.78pts (+123.6%) in August/September
  • 6/15 (40%) for 11.8pts (+78.5%) at Class 4
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 12.6pts (+15.7%) in August
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) for 5.94pts (+84.9%) here at Pontefract...

...whilst those racing over 5-6 furlongs on the Flat at odds of 6/4 to 15/2 within 10 days of their last run are 5/10 (50% SR) for 17.88pts (178.8% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Highly Sprung @ 6/1 BOG as offered by BetVictor & Hills at 6.35pm on Tuesday with plenty of 11/2 BOG  knocking about. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.50 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th May 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

4.00 Lingfield : Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, ridden 2f out, headway over 1f out, ran on, led towards finish, headed close home by a flying finisher)

Next up is Friday's...

7.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Robero @ 13/2 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 3,  7f A/W Handicap (3yo+) on tapeta worth £9704 to the winner...

Why?

It wouldn't be unreasonable to suggest that this 6 yr old gelding might have needed the run when last seen being well beaten at Haydock six days ago. The mitigating circumstances were a 168 day absence, unsuitably soft ground and racing at a higher class than today. He's now back down at Class 3 and back on the All-Weather for the first time in ten months racing on a track where he's 1 from 2, having previously won over course and distance.

Since the start of 2013, his trainer Mick Easterby is 30 from 159 (18.9% SR) for 92.5pts (+58.2% ROI) with his handicappers turned back out just 4 to 7 days after their last run, from which...

  • males are 28/135 (20.7%) for 100.8pts (+74.7%)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 12/1 : 27/105 (25.7%) for 89.5pts (+85.3%)
  • over trips shorter than a mile : 16/98 (16.3%) for 74.5pts (+76%)
  • those unplaced LTO : 17/92 (18.5%) for 93.4pts (+101.5%)
  • on the A/W : 12/44 (27.3%) for 25.2pts (+57.3%)
  • 6 yr olds are 8/31 (25.8%) for 12.3pts (+39.6%)
  • those ridden by a 5lb claimer : 4/19 (21.1%) for 19.1pts (+100.8%)
  • at Class 3 : 4/18 (22.2%) for 20.6pts (+114.7%)
  • and on tapeta : 4/18 (22.2%) for 11pts (+61.3%)

In addition to the above, Mr Easterby's runners are 19 from 112 (17% SR) for 56.1pts (+50.1% ROI) profit in handicaps on the A/W here at Newcastle, with those failing to make the frame last time out stepping up to win 12 of 76 (15.8%) for 64.9pts (+85.4%), whilst today's jockey Harrison Shaw has ridden 24 of those handicappers, winning 5 times (20.8% SR) for profits of 29.7pts at an attractive ROI of some 123.6%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Robero @ 13/2 BOG which was available from Betbright & Hills at 5.30pm on Thursday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!