Tag Archives: Goodwood Racecourse

Stat of the Day, 2nd August 2019

Thursday's pick was...

4.00 Nottingham : Music Seeker @ 6/1 8th at 3/1 (Chased leaders on inside, ridden 2f out, weakened soon after, behind and eased final furlong)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Duke of Hazzard @ 9/2 BOG

...in the 9-runner, Group 3, Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes for 3yo over 1m on Good ground worth £56,710 to the winner... 

Why?...

Keeping it fairly simple today with a 3 yr old colt who broke his UK duck on this very track last season and was also a winner of a Listed race at Deauville as a 2 yr old, beating one of today's main rivals in the process. He won a Listed race LTO 22 days ago, which took his UK record to 2 wins and 3 places from 9 starts, suggesting that at the very least, we should get a run for our money (albeit late in the piece!)

From those nine previous UK runs, he has...

  • 2 wins, 3 places from 5 after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 in July/August
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 5 in fields of 6-9 runners
  • 1 win from 3 over a mile
  • 1 from 1 here at Goodwood
  • 1 from 1 under jockey PJ McDonald
  • 1 from 1 in August
  • and 1 from 1 going right handed

Trainer Paul Cole is neither prolific, nor does he comes to Goodwood that often, but over the last three seasons his runners over 1m1f and shorter have won 27% more often than expected via 4 wins from 16 (25% SR) that have generated 2.53pts profit at an ROI of 10.12%. These numbers aren't earth shattering, admittedly, but that A/E figure of 1.27 is certainly interesting, especially given the horse's own obvious claims.

That said, of that 4 from 16 record, there are...

  • 3/10 (30%) from those with a top 2 finish LTO
  • 3/7 (42.9%) racing after a break of 21-30 days
  • 2/9 (22.2%) in non-handicaps
  • 2/9 (22.2%) in August
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) shorter than 4/1 (which is where I expect him to end up)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Duke of Hazzard @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 6.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

5.45 Chelmsford : Hard Taskmaster @ 3/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Chased leaders, went 2nd approaching final furlong, led entering final furlong, soon clear, winning by 2.75L) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Master Carpenter @ 5/1 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m1f on Soft ground, worth £8022 to the winner...

This 7 yr old is admittedly on a fairly lengthy losing run (but as we know, they all end eventually!), but showed signs of a return to some semblance of form when possibly a little unlucky not to have least made the frame over further than at Newbury five days ago.

He does look well suited/handicapped today running off a mark of 85 in a Class 4 contest on Soft ground, considering his last win came off 95 on Soft at Class 2 and with today's conditions in mind, it's worth noting that to date...

  • four of his five career wins have come within 30 days of his last run
  • 3 of those 5 wins were on ground with soft in the going description
  • he has won one Listed race and 3 at Class 2
  • stays 1m2.5f, so stamina not a concern

Having checked the market at 8.30am, it's quite possible that he'll go off as favourite and it's a common thought that backing favourites is an easy route to the poor house and whilst that is true backing them blindly, the opposite is the case with runners trained by Rod Millman, whose horses sent off with a favourite tag are 77 from 244 (31.6% SR) for 41.7pts (+17.1% ROI), from which Class 4 runners are 14/39 (35.9%) for 9.5pts (+24.4%) and Soft ground runners are 7/24 (29.2%) for 1.55pts (+6.5%).

Another positive factor for me here is the booking of Oisin Murphy in the saddle, I mentioned yesterday that he was riding well right now, an observation backed up by his 8 winners from 34 (23.5% SR) over the past week, including 2 winners and a place from 5 rides at Chelmsford last night which kicked off by him delivering a well-timed 7/2 winner for SotD!

Oisin also has a good record when riding for Rod Millman, winning 17 of 104 (16.4% SR) for profits of 100.4pts (+96.5% ROI), from which...

  • in handicaps : 16/87 (18.4%) for 89.3pts (+102.6%)
  • male runners are 15/79 (19%) for 92.3pts (+116.8%)
  • over trips of 5f to 1m2f : 13/77 (16.9%) for 100.4pts (+130.4%)
  • on the Flat : 12/74 (16.2%) for 78.8pts (+106.4%)
  • and at Class 4 : 5/35 (14.3%) for 21pts (+60%)

AND...from the above... O. Murphy + R. Millman + Males + 5f to 10f + Flat handicaps = 8/43 (18.6% SR) for 61.8pts (+143.7% ROI). I'm acutely aware that this stat also fits Handytalk in the 3.05 race here today, but I don't think he's as likely to win as our pick, but I wouldn't put you off a small E/W punt if you liked the look of it...

...leaving us with... a 1pt win bet on Master Carpenter @ 5/1 BOG , a price offered by over half a dozen firms at 5.55pm on Tuesday evening, whilst Bet365 were slightly longer at 11/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

7.30 Epsom : Toy Theatre @ 4/1 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn at 8.05am due to the going)

Friday's pick goes in the...

2.25 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Threading 5/2 BOG

In a 6-runner, Group 3 contest (Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes) for 3yo over 1m on Good ground worth £56710 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly is rated (OR) 1 to 15 lbs better than the four of her five rivals who've got an official mark, but as the only filly in the contest gets a 3lb weight pull from all five, putting her at a great advantage as she seeks a fourth win in eight starts.

Her current 3 from 7 record is decent if not exceptional, but does include of note today...

  • 3 from 4 when not at Newmarket (perhaps she's not suited there)
  • 2 from 3 at 16-30 days since last run
  • 2 from 2 in August
  • wins on Gd to Fm / Gd to Soft & Soft suggest no going issues
  • has 2 wins at Class 1, inc a Gr 2
  • has won over 1m
  • has won here at Goodwood
  • and has won under jockey James Doyle

Her trainer, Mark Johnston, thrives here at Goodwood and prior to hitting two winners from six runners yesterday, his record at this venue stood at 82/543 (15.1% SR) for 266.8pts (+49.1% ROI) since the start of the 2008 season and these include of relevance today...

  • over the last five (inc this one) seasons : 44/269 (16.4%) for 143pts (+53.1%)
  • at 11-25 days since last run : 46/261 (17.6%) for 237.9 (+91.2%)
  • on good ground : 41/240 (17.1%) for 158.6pts (+66.1%)
  • in August : 23/152 (15.1%) for 95.2pts (+62.6%)
  • in non-handicaps : 29/151 (19.2%) for 69.2pts (+45.9%)
  • over 1m/1m1f : 16/79 (20.3%) for 76pts (+96.2%)
  • at Class 1 : 12/71 (16.9%) for 26.4pts (+37.2%)
  • at Group 3 : 4/26 (15.4%) for 19.7pts (+75.6%)
  • and with James Doyle in the saddle : 3/13 (23.1%) for 22.6pts (+174%)

...AND...over the last five seasons with horses on good ground, 11-25 days after their last run : 11 from 47 (23.4% SR) for 88.4pts (+188.1% ROI) with a Class 1 record of 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 12.7pts (+141.2%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Threading 5/2 BOGa price widely available at 6.20pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st August 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

1.40 Yarmouth : Emily Goldfinch @ 9/2 BOG 9th at 5/2 (Tracked leader, effort over 2f out, soon ridden, never on terms, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.00 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Soldier's Call 11/4 BOG

In an 11-runner, Group 3, Flat contest  for 2yo (aka Molecomb Stakes) over 5f on Good ground worth £42532 to the winner...

Why?

This 2 yr old Colt has finished 211 in his three starts to date, all over a straight 5f and he's 2 from 2 under today's jockey Dan Tudhope whjo comes here in decent nick himself having ridden 24 winners from 100 rides on the last 30 days. This pair were winners of a big-field (28 ran!) Listed contest last time out at Ascot 39 days ago and the form of that event seems to be working out well enough.

Van Beethoven was 4th that day (2.75L behind) and he then won a Group 2 race a week later and was quite possibly a little unlucky to go down by 5L here yesterday in another Gr2 race. I'm not saying he would/should have won, but with a bit more luck in running, he could have at least made the frame. Well Done Fox was a further 2.25 lengths back in 8th place in the Ascot contest and he has since landed a Listed contest, a week after Van Beethoven won his Gr2.

Our boy is trained by Archie Watson, who has had a spectacular start to life as a trainer and backing every one of his runners over the last 19 months (ie since New Year's Day 2017) has actually proved to be profitable. Now I'd never advocate backing every runner a trainer sends out, but if you had done, you've have backed 115 winners from 554 (20.8% SR) and your profits of 32.2pts would represent an ROI of 5.8%.

If you did want a simple "bet and forget" approach to Archie's runners, non-handicappers would have been the way forward, as these are 63/250 (25.2% SR) for 56.8pts (+22.7% ROI) and offer a much more palatable return and if that's still too many bets, you could filter them as follows...

  • 5 or fewer previous runs : 48/199 (24.1%) for 69pts (+34.7%)
  • 8/1 or shorter : 59/168 (35.1%) for 64pts (+38.1%)
  • over 5 to 7 furlongs : 48/165 (29.1%) for 55.2pts (+33.5%)
  • 10 to 40 days since last run : 44/148 (29.7%) for 43.4pts (+29.3%)
  • 2 yr olds  :34/140 (24.3%) for 35.2pts (+25.1%)
  • males : 35/113 (31%) for 42.5pts (+37.6%)
  • June to September : 35/112 (31.3%) for 74.3pts (+66.3%)
  • LTO winners : 12/36 (33.3%) for 5.2pts (+14.5%)
  • ridden by Dan Tudhope : 6/16 (37.5%) for 18.9pts (+117.9%)

...AND, from the above...

...2 yr olds with 5 or fewer previous runs now priced at 8/1 and shorter over 5 to 7 furlongs 10 to 40 days after their last run are 21/49 (42.9% SR) for 34.6pts (+70.6% ROI) and these include...

  • June-September : 18/36 950%) for 39.8pts (+110.5%)
  • males : 12/24 (50%) for 13.15pts (+54.8%)
  • males in June-September : 11/18 (61.1%) for 17.6pts (+97.9%)
  • LTO winners : 6/10 (60%) for 1.33pts (+13.3%)
  • LTO winners in June-September : 5/8 (62.5%) for 1.8pts (+22.5%)
  • male LTO winners : 4/6 (66.6%) for 0.76pts (+12.6%)
  • and male LTO winners in June-September : 3/4 (75%) for 1.22pts (+30.6%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Soldier's Call 11/4 BOGa price available from Unibet, Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.40pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th June 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

2.00 Haydock : Quantatmental @ 11/4 BOG WON at 3/1 (Made all, strongly pressed inside final furlong, held on gamely, all out to win by a nose )

We continue with Friday's...

6.30 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oeil De Tigre @ 3/1 BOG 

A 9-runner, Class 5 Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good ground worth £4916 to the winner... 

Why?

Translated as the Eye of the Tiger, as used in the Rocky films, I'll be hoping land another knockout blow this evening with a 7 yr old gelding who was a course and distance winner last time out. That was 15 days ago on his first ever visit to this venue and was under today's jockey Sophie Ralston, a 7lb claimer who seems to have developed a good relationship with the horse.

The horse has 3 wins and 2 places from his last 8 starts, he has 4 wins and a place from 6 runs just 8 to 15 days after he was last seen and in the 6 races with Sophie Ralston on his back he has 3 wins and a place, so conditions seem good for him here racing just 1lb worse off than his LTO win.

In addition to the above details, I'm going to keep the stats simple today (I can almost hear the cheers!), focusing on trainer Tony Carroll and his ability to keep in-form horses running well.

The basic stat is that since 2009, in Flat handicaps during the May to August period Tony's LTO winners turned back out after a break of 11 to 75 days went on to win again on 13 of 83 occasions with that 15.7% strike rate yielding profits of 40.6pts at a very healthy ROI of 48.9%.

Now, 83 isn't a massive sample size, but the percentages quoted made this worth a second look and as always the numbers have to fit the race conditions, so based on today's contest, those 83 LTO winners are...

  • 12/67 (17.9%) for 25.8pts (+38.5%) as males
  • 12/50 (24%) for 71.3pts (+142.6%) over trips of 5.5 to 10 furlongs
  • 4/26 (15.4%) for 10.06pts (+38.7%) at Class 5
  • 5/25 (20%) for 12.05pts (+48.2%) on good ground
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 37.7pts (+179.4%) over trips of just 5.5 to 6 furlongs
  • and LTO C&D winners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 14.95pts (+213.6%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Oeil De Tigre @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th September 2017

Monday's Result :

5.00 Brighton : Black Caesar @ 11/2 BOG (3.85/1 after 30p R4)- WON at 7/2 : Led early, chased leader, switched right 2f out, led entering final furlong, soon clear, comfortably home by 6 lengths...

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.15 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Golden Salute @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

A fourth start for this progressive-looking filly, who is 2 from 2 after finishing 7th on debut earlier in "the summer" (as some people still like to call the middle part of the year!), more is needed on handicap/nursery debut of course, but the signs are good, for...

...trainer Andrew Balding's late season 2 yr olds are something I look out for. Well, more specifically, I look for runners to fulfil the following criteria...

...2009-17 / Flat / Class 1 to 4 / 5 to 7 furlongs / July to October / just 0-3 career runs to date - this sounds quite restrictive, but it's a nice little micro good for around 35 bets a season and to date stands at 39/303 (12.9% SR) for 38.2pts (+126.1% ROI) profit.

Those numbers are then backed up by Mr Balding's record since 2010 with 2 to 4 yr olds making a handicap debut after at least one career win and such beasts are 24/113 (21.2% SR) for 46.5pts (+41.2% ROI) in the 6/4 to 12/1 broad odds range, with today's jockey, Geegeez-sponsored, David Probert riding 14 of those of 24 winners from just 41 attempts (34.2% SR) for profits of 45.4pts (+110.8% ROI).

Lucky pants?

Lucky pants?

So, if the "lucky Geegeez pants" work their magic again today...

...we're well set with... a 1pt win bet on Golden Salute @ 5/2 BOG, which was widely available at 8.30pm on Monday: the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with Sky again. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th June 2017

Thursday's Result :

3.30 Fontwell : Charlie Mon @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 11/2 Led until just after 4 out, no impression on winner, lost 2nd after 2 out.

Friday's pick goes in the...

7.40 Goodwood...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Road To Dubai @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 3yr old colt has finished 131 in his last three outings, the latest of which was a win here at Goodwood just 7 days ago, taking his course record to 2 from 2. He's also 1/2 on good to firm ground and has won on the only other occasion on which he's had less than a full week's rest.

His trainer, George Scott and jockey Silvestre de Sousa are both in excellent form with George recording 3 wins from 8 in the last fortnight whilst SdS has 11 winners from 38 in the past 7 days!

All that aside, I was initially drawn to the horse purely because George Scott was his trainer, as during his relatively short training career, he has proved profitable to follow blindly, since 26 of 151 (17.2% SR) runners to date have been winners and had you got on from the start with £20 bets on each of them, your profits would currently stand at a cool £2076, a return of some 68.8% on your outlay.

Those blind figures are, of course, excellent, but if you didn't want to back all his runners, you could apply any of the following six filters that all apply today...

  • males are 19/94 (20.2%) for 77.2pts (+82.1%)
  • on the Flat : 17/87 (19.5%) for 99.8pts (+114.7%)
  • in handicaps : 15/87 (17.2%) for 68.5pts (+78.7%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 9/44 (20.5%) for 76.2pts (+173.3%)
  • those ridden by Silvestre de Sousa : 5/11 (45.5%) for 15pts (+136.1%)
  • and here at Goodwood : 3/5 (60%) for 84.6pts (+1692%)

And before I wrap this up, it's also worth pointing out that over the last four months Mr Scott's LTO winners are 4/8 (50% SR) for 2.86pts (+35.7% ROI) when running in handicaps.

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Road To Dubai3/1 BOG offered by Bet365, Betfair , Paddy Power and SkyBet at 8.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th June 2017

Thursday's Result :

7.35 Sandown : Hold Sway @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 Tracked leader, ridden to lead over 2f out, soon headed, kept on but lost 2nd inside final furlong.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

8.50 Goodwood...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Zambesi Queen11/4 BOG

Why?

A very comfortable winner by some 5 lengths over this 6f trip when last seen five weeks ago. She was ridden by today's jockey, David Probert that day as she scored on her handicap debut despite being off the track for 5 months, so she could well have more to give.

Trainer Paul Cole's handicappers with less than 4 handicap runs under their belts are 16/95 (16.8% SR) for 41.8pts (+44% ROI) over the last two years, which is very impressive indeed and under today's conditions, they are...

  • 12/67 (17.9%) for 32.25pts (+48.1%), 6 to 60 days since their last run
  • 11/58 (19%) for 23.1pts (+39.8%) on Turf
  • 3 yr olds are 10/57 (17.5%) for 42.9pts (+75.2%)
  • 6/32 (18.75%) for 41.7pts (+130.5%) at Class 5
  • females are 4/22 (18.2%) for 29.7pts (+135%)
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 51.5pts (+343.2%) over 6f
  • those with 1 previous hcp win are 4/13 (30.8%) for 20pts (+153.9%)
  • and those ridden by David Probert  are 3/5 (60%) for 30.95pts (+618.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Zambesi Queen11/4 BOG which was offered by both Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.50 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 6th May 2017

Friday's Result :

5.00 Musselburgh : Cosmic Ray @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/4 Tracked leader, led over 2f out, hard driven, stayed on well to win by a length and a half.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.05 Goodwood...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dubka7/2 BOG

Why?

A 1m4f Listed contest for fillies on good to firm ground and our pick is a 4 yr old, who has 4 wins from 6 starts to date, including...

  • 4/4 at this trip
  • 4/4 in fields of 4-10 runners
  • 2/3 on good to firm
  • 2/3 going right handed

So, conditions are fine. Now to her trainer, Sir Michael Stoute. The yard is in good nick : 9/30 in the last fortnight and 6 from 17 in the past 7 days with a place strike rate of 71% : all good!

Sir Michael's runners are also 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 13.4pts (+74.5% ROI) in Listed races here at Gooodwood since 2009 and in all contests here in that same time, he has a 20.7% strike rate (40 winners from 193).

So, we also now know that the yard does well here, but what about the fact that Dubka hasn't run for 205 days? Well, you'll be pleased to learn that Sir Michael's runners returning from a break of 3 to 10 months are 41/181 (22.7% SR) for 59.9pts (+33.1% ROI) since the start of 2015, of which...

  • in non-hcps : 27/119 (22.7%) for 46.9pts (+39.4%)
  • females are 11/62 (+17.7%) for 36.5pts (+58.9%)
  • at Class 1 : 11/35 (31.4%) for 19.1pts (+54.5%)
  • 4 yr olds are 12/28 (42.9%) for 26.1pts (+93.1%)
  • and over this 1m4f trip : 6/15 (40%) for 25.8pts (+171.8%)

And finally (!), Dubka is one of the many offsprin of the renowned Dubawi, whose progeny love running at this trip with 91 winners from 388 (23.5% SR) for 174.7pts (+45% ROI) over 1m4f, from which non-handicappers are 32/125 (25.6%) for 94.7pts (+75.8%) with Class 1 races providing a record of 20/75 (26.7%) for 53.8pts (+71.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Dubka7/2 BOG which was on offer from Bet365, Betfred & Totesport at 8.45pm on Friday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2016

Tuesday's Result :

4.10 Beverley : Ralphy Boy @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Led, driven over 2f out, soon ridden, headed 1f out, kept on, no impression with winner inside final furlong and beaten by just over 2 lengths.)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Admiralty Arch at 11/2 BOG

Why?

Tom Marquand rides this 2 yr old colt for Richard Hannon today and the pair are 4 from 11 (36.4% SR) for 33.5pts (+304.5% ROI) together at this venue in 2016, with 7f runners winning three of four on their way to profits of some 32.65pts (+876.2%).

On top of that, the pair are 18/109 (16.5% SR) for 11.86pts (+10.9% ROI) in all non-handicap contests to date, of which...

  • those racing over 5f to 1m are 17/95 (17.9%) for 32.8pts (+34.5%)
  • males are 14/62 (22.6%) for 21.8pts (+35.2%)
  • on good/good to soft ground : 7/42 (16.7%) for 27.93pts (+66.5%)

Admiralty Arch is by Archipenko, whose offspring are 103/667 (15.4% SR) for 378.7pts (+56.8% ROI) profit so far, including...

  • 39/200 (19.5%) for 284.2pts (+142.1%) from 2 yr olds
  • 34/180 (18.9%) for 269.5pts (+149.7%) over 6/7f
  • 5/35 (14.3%) for 46.8pts (+133.6%) at Class 2

AND... 2 yr olds over 7 furlongs are 16/74 (21.6% SR) for 163pts (+220.3% ROI)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Admiralty Arch at 11/2 BOG, which was available from Hills and Bet365 at 6.40pm on Tuesday and to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Goodwood.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...