Tag Archives: Geegeez

Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.30 Musselburgh : Dear Sire @ 11/2 BOG WON at 4/1 Tracked leaders, went 2nd 4 out, led approaching next, mistake 2 out, 2 lengths clear when blundered and good recovery by rider last, rider continued without irons flat, ridden out, kept on well to win by 5 lengths

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.25 Newcastle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dark Side Dream 4/1 BOG

Why?

A very consistent 5yr old gelding who is trained by Chris Dwyer, a trainer with a good record in A/W handicaps in recent years, winning 77 of 454 (17% SR) for 202.5pts (+44.6% ROI) since the start of 2013, including...

  • those returning from a break of 4 to 30 days = 71/354 (20.1%) for 239pts (+67.5%)
  • over 5f to 1m : 64/353 (18.1%) for 236.8pts (+67.1%)
  • those finishing 2nd/3rd LTO are 28/115 (24.4%) for 112.4pts (+97.8%)
  • on tapeta : 14/93 (15.1%) for 35.8pts (+38.5%)
  • and those ridden by Silvestre de Sousa are 24/83 (28.9%) for 66.2pts (+79.8%)

And from the above, we can ascertain that those racing over 5f to 1m, 4 to 30 days after their last run are 59/279 (21.2% SR) for 261.1pts (+93.6% ROI), of which those who finished 2nd or 3rd LTO are 24/82 (29.3%) for 124.1pts (+151.3%)

...providing a...a 1pt win bet on Dark Side Dream 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.05pm on Wednesday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.25 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 1st March 2017

Tuesday's Result :

2.00 Lingfield : Picansort @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 Held up in rear, not clear run on inside over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on well inside final furlong, went 2nd close home, beaten by a length

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.30 Musselburgh...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dear Sire 11/2 BOG

Why?

Short and hopefully sweet today...

Donald McCain's record here at Musselburgh since the start of 2012 stands at 33 winners from 149 (22.2% SR) for 28.5pts (+19.2% ROI) profit and with regards to today's race, those runners are...

  • 26/86 (30.2%) for 45.5pts (+50.6%) at Classes 4 to 6
  • 24/63 (38.1%) for 22.2pts (+35.2%) in non-handicaps
  • 24/59 (40.7%) for 76.2pts (+129.9%) over trips of 2m to 2m3.5f
  • 14/56 (25%) for 29.4pts (+52.5%) after a break of 11 to 30 days
  • and 16/43 (37.2%) for 57.6pts (+133.8%) carrying 11st to 11st4lbs

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Dear Sire 11/2 BOG which was available with Bet365 and Hills at 6.05pm on Tuesday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 28th February 2017

Monday's Result :

4.45 Ayr : Shades of Midnight @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 Tracked leaders, led before 3 out, headed last, kept on and lost 2nd place close home, beaten by little more than half a length

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Lingfield...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Picansort 4/1 BOG

Why?

Trainer Peter Crate's A/W handicappers priced at 14/1 and shorter, backed blindly have 21 wins from 116 (18.1% SR) for level stakes profits of 42.7pts at an ROI of some 36.8%, which is more than decent and in respect of this contest, those runners are...

  • 21/112 (18.75%) for 46.7pts (+41.7%) on Polytrack
  • 15/77 (19.5%) here at Lingfield fpr 37.8pts (+49.1%)
  • 12/74 (16.2%) for 17.6pts (+23.8%) ridden by Shane Kelly
  • 16/65 (24.6%) for 48.8pts (+75.1%) over the 5f minimum trip
  • and 12 from 50 (24%) for 21.9pts (+43.8%) in the February to April period

Peter couldn't be better represented today than by the 10 yr old gelding, Picansort, a 7 times (yes, seven!) course and distance winner, who not only also has an excellent overall A/W record, but does appear to have his favoured conditions here to boot!

In fact, this horse has 10 wins from 58 (17.2% SR) on the A/W, rewarding followers with profits of 14.5pts at an ROI of 25%, and under today's conditions, those 58 races have produced the following...

  • 8/50 (16%) for 13.3pts (+26.7%) going left handed
  • 8/48 (16.7%) for 16.6pts (+34.6%) whilst at Peter Crate's yard
  • 8/47 (17%) for 16.3pts (+34.8%) here at Lingfield
  • 8/41 (19.5%) for 23.6pts (+57.5%) with Shane Kelly in the saddle
  • 9/37 (24.3%) for 31.4pts (+84.9%) in 5f sprints
  • 7/28 (25%) for 31.3pts (+111.7%) over this Lingfield 5f course and distance
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 14/1pts (+61.1%) when priced at 5/1 and shorter
  • and 6 from 19 (31.6%) for 24.3pts (+127.7%) when wearing blinkers.

And if that's not quite enough to persuade/tempt you, a glance at our racecard for this race shows that he's top of the Speed Ratings and if you back our top-rated blindly in 5f races, you make a profit, as explained better/in more detail here in the Gold Forum.

...and that's why I've placed...a 1pt win bet on Picansort @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.00pm on Monday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 17th January 2017

Monday's Result :

2.35 Plumpton : Kid Kalanisi @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/2 Never fluent, mistakes 6th and next, held up well off the pace in rear, gained a place 10th, smooth headway tracking leaders next, 2nd going well before 2 out, upsides and hit 2 out, led between last 2, hit last, driven out to score by almost 3 lengths

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.30 Ayr

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Plus Jamais @ 11/2 BOG

Why?

This 10 yr old might well have only won 3 times in his career, but generally races against younger horses, whereas the average age of this contest at just over 9 fits his profile better.

It's also worth taking a quick look at his three previous wins, because...

  • all 3 came here at Ayr (2 on heavy ground, 1 on soft) in Class 4 handicap contests at odds of 6/1 and shorter. All came in the Jan-March period after a break of 10-40 days and when he was ridden by today's jockey Brian Hughes in fields of less than 10 runners!

On top of that is the fact that since the start of 2011, horses competing in heavy ground handicap chases with at least 2 previous heavy ground wins from less than 10 attempts are 115 from 664 (17.3% SR) for 173.7pts (+26.2% ROI) with Class 4 contests supplying 40 winners from 173 (23.1%) for 87pts (+50.3%)

His trainer Iain Jardine doesn't have that many NH runners here, but they are 5/22 (22.7% SR) for 10.37pts (+47.1% ROI) here since the start of 2015.

And the final piece of the puzzle is jockey Brian Hughes, who aside from his 3 wins on Plus Jamais here at Ayr, has 24 wins from 126 (19.1% SR) for 10.2pts (+8.1% ROI) profit at this venue over the last three years, of which...

  • chasers are 13/50 (26%) for 16.5pts (+33%)
  • Class 4 runners are 14/45 (31.1%) for 39.4pts (+87.5%)
  • and Class 4 chasers are 8/22 (36.4%) for 27.6pts (+125.3%)

...providing us with...a 1pt win bet on Plus Jamais @ 11/2 BOG which was offered by Betway, Coral, Ladbrokes, Marathon and Sky amongst others at 5.50pm on Monday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 16th January 2017

Saturday's Result :

12.55 Kempton : Ericht @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 Jumped left at times, tracked leaders, left in 2nd place 6th, lost 2nd 8th, outpaced and never going from next, tailed off

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Plumpton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kid Kalanisi @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old was a winner last time out three weeks ago under today's jockey Nick Scholfield, who is 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 8.43pts (+30.1% ROI) here at Plumpton since the start of 2015.

And since the start of 2008. trainer Jeremy Scott's handicap hurdlers who were LTO winners within the previous 30 days, "doubled up" on 17 of 70 occasions (24.3% SR) for profits of 37.4pts (+53.4%), including...

  • those priced at 11/8 to 9/1 are 16/50 (32%) for 40.6pts (+81.2%)
  • those last seen 6-21 days ago are 11/36 (30.6%) for 16pts (+44.4%)
  • those that were Jeremy's only runner of the day are 6/29 (20.7%) for 8.33pts (+28.7%)
  • those ridden by Nick Scholfield are 8/27 (29.6%) for 6.97pts (+25.8%)
  • and on Soft ground expected today : 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.02pts (+50.2%)

I mentioned just there about This being Jeremy's only runner of the day and I had a closer look and found that he does pretty well when only having the one out. Since the start of 2011, 58 of his 342 (17% SR) "solo flyers" have been winners, returning level stakes profits of 244pts at a verey healthy ROI of 71.4%, of which Nock has ridden 24 winners from 162 (14.8%) for 155.9pts (+96.2%), whilst Class 4 races have seen 28 winners from 153 (18.3%) and 142.9pts (+93.4%) profits.

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Kid Kalanisi @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Bet365 and about 17 others at 8.35pm on Sunday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 14th January 2017

Friday's Result :

2.30 Lingfield : Speed Freak @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 Tracked leader, pushed along 2f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, soon joined, headed final strides

Saturday's pick goes in the...

12.55 Kempton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ericht @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

He comes here boasting excellent credentials for the task ahead, having won 3 of his 6 runs here at Kempton, as well having 6 wins on Good to Soft / Soft ground, 5 wins under Barry Geraghty, 5 wins going right handed and 4 wins at 2m4f/2m5f.

On top of all that, he has the benefit of being trained by Nicky Henderson, who has certainly started the new year in fine style, with 11 winners from 27 (40.7%), whilst here at Kempton he is 129/437 (29.5% SR) for 167.8pts (+38.4% ROI) since 2008.

That's consistent long-term profit year on year and in respect of today's race, those 437 runners are...

  • males : 116/388 (29.9%) for 138.6pts (+35.7%)
  • during the December to April months : 102/343 (29.7%) for 188.2pts (+54.9%)
  • ridden by Barry Geraghty : 70/202 (34.7%) for 53.5pts (+26.5%)
  • in handicaps : 30/158 (19%) for 128.3pts (+81.2%)
  • in chases : 44/131 (33.6%) for 39.1pts (+29.9%)
  • on good to soft : 35/112 (31.3%) for 50.2pts (+44.9%)
  • and at Class 3 : 26/95 (27.4%) for 96.2pts (+101.3%)

AND...Barry Geraghty riding a male runner in the December - April period = 29/80 (36.25% SR) for 44.7pts (+55.9% ROI)

...hence...a 1pt win bet on Ericht @ 7/2 BOG which was offered by Bet365 and at least 9 others at 7.30pm on Friday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.55 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 13th January 2017

Thursday's Result :

3.10 Leicester : Midnight Jade @ 5/2 BOG WON at 4/1 Tracked leaders, led before 4 out, held on run-in, all out to win by 1.25 lengths

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.30 Lingfield

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Speed Freak @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Trainer Ralph Beckett has his string in fine order at the moment, despite not sending too many out to track! 4 winners and 5 placers from 12 over the last 4 weeks represents quality over quantity and of those dozen that have braved the elements, there has been two winners and a runner-up from four sent here to Lingfield.

More longer-term, Ralph's record here on the all-weather track at Lingfield is also excellent, as you'd expect, with 48 winners from 218 (22% SR) since 2010, generating level stakes profits of 106.8pts at an ROI of 48.9%. With today's race in mind, here are a handful of profitable angles we could follow from those 218 runners...

  • those who last ran 6-60 days ago are 35/145 (24.1%) for 114.1pts (+78.7%)
  • in non-handicap races : 24/134 (17.9%) for 64.6pts (+48.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 25/128 (19.5%) for 84.3pts (+65.9%)
  • in maidens : 19/106 (17.9%) for 68pts (+64.2%)
  • and females are 19/99 (19.2%) for 127.6pts (+128.9%)

AND...females returning from a break of 6 to 60 days to run in a Lingfield Class 5 A/W maiden are 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 73.2pts (+385% ROI)

In addition to the above there are another couple of positives regarding this selection...

  1. Last year's Champion Apprentice Josephine Gordon will be in the saddle and not only is she very talented, but she's also in great form, having won 5 of 23 (21.7% SR) over the last week.
  2. This 3 yr old filly is by Fastnet Rock, whose offspring are 48/252 (19.1% SR) for 153.3pts (+60.8% ROI) on the A?W since the start of 2016, with Class 5 runners winning 21 of 96 (21.9%) for 106.5pts (+110.9%).

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Speed Freak @ 7/2 BOG which was offered by Bet365, Betbright, BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.05pm on Thursday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 12th January 2017

Wednesday's Result :

1.05 Taunton : Stay Out Of Court @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 Chased leaders, went 2nd 5th until 3 out, chased leaders, battling for modest 2nd place from 2 out, no chance with winner

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.10 Leicester

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Jade @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

Relatively short and sweet for a change!

An 8yr old mare who has taken to chasing like a duck to water, 5 runs over the last 45 weeks or so have resulted in finishes of 12421, ending in a win LTO at Southwell a month ago.

Of her five chase starts to date, relevant facts include...

  • 2 wins and 2 places 10-40 days since her last run
  • 2 wins and a runner-up finish under today's jockey Lee Edwards
  • 1 win and a runner-up from two efforts at this Class 5 grade (although she's the same record at Class 4!)
  • 2 wins from 2 runs in the December to February period.

She's trained by John Groucott, who might not be the most prolific or well known trainer, but he does well with his handicappers with the market usually a good barometer of his chances, as since 2009, his NH handicappers at odds of 7/1 and shorter (ie SotD territory!) are 15/44 (34.1% SR) for 36.9pts (+83.9% ROI) profit, with the following of note today...

  • chasers are 13/36 (36.1%) for 34.2pts (+95%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.33pts (+62.2%)
  • LTO winners are 4/14 (28.6%) for 1.7pts (+12.1%)
  • females are 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.57pts (+139.7%)
  • over 2m4f : 3/5 (60%) for 10.46pts (+209.3%)
  • here at Leicester : 2/4 (50%) for 6.66pts (+166.7%)
  • and those ridden by Lee Edwards are 2/3 (66.7%) for 10.92pts (+364.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Midnight Jade @ 5/2 BOG which was offered by a dozen firms at 6.45pm on Wednesday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 11th January 2017

Tuesday's Result :

1.15 Southwell : L'Inganno Felice @ 5/1 BOG WON at 11/4 Keen, raced wide, close up, tracked leader 7f out, led over 4f out, ran on for a comfortable win by 7 lengths ahead of a well strung out field.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

1.05 Taunton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Out Of Court @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has acquitted himself well enough in two starts so far, finishing 3rd on debut in a bumper at Worcester back in June 2016, before becoming a runner-up at Ffos Las on heavy ground when making his hurdling debut three weeks ago.

That last run was on heavy ground,l so his stamina seems fine and it was also at a higher grade (C4) than today.  And to put that race into context, he was only beaten by 0.75 lengths behind the more experienced and 132-rated Robinshill, who last weekend suffered a defeat by a similar margin off 135 in a Class 2 contest at Sandown.

So, if the form pans out as I hope it will, trainer David Pipe will have another winner at Taunton, where since 2008, his 6 to 10 yr olds are 28/164 (17.1% SR) for 36.2pts (+22.1% ROI), including of note today...

  • males are 28/149 (18.8%) for 51.2pts (+34.4%)
  • hurdlers are 19/123 (15.5%) for 36.3pts (+29.5%)
  • those stepping in trip by more than 1f are 11/59 (18.6%) for 52.4pts (+88.8%)
  • and those racing over this 3m 0.5f trip are 7/26 (26.9%) for 64.1pts (+246.7%)

That stat about the step up in trip is no surprise really, as a quick look at the Trainer Snippets report tells us that over the last two years, the David Pipe runners stepping up in trip by more than 25% of the distance they last ran are 19/88 (21.6% SR) for 46.83pts (+53.2% ROI) at SP, figures which can easily be beaten by Betfair SP or BOG odds, which got me digging again!

And what I discovered what that David Pipe hurdlers stepping up in trip by 3.5f to 9f are 67/393 (17.1% SR) for 121.7pts (+31% ROI) since 2011, of which...

  • 6/7 yr olds are 30/152 (19.7%) for 168.8pts (+111.1%)
  • those racing at 2m6.5f to 3m2.5f are 30/143 (21%) for 155.7pts (+108.9%)
  • and like Stay Out Of Court, 6/7 yr olds racing at 2m6.5f to 3m2.5f are 18/67 (26.9% SR) for 154.9pts (+231.1% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Stay Out Of Court @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Paddy Power and a half dozen others at 6.30pm on Tuesday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 10th January 2017

Monday's Result :

5.05 Wolverhampton : Palenville @ 9/4 BOG 3rd at 5/2 Raced prominently just off the leader until the last furlong, when fading tamely to be beaten by almost 4 lengths.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

1.15 Southwell

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

L'Inganno Felice @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a winner 7 days ago under today's jockey and come s here aiming to add to the successes his yard has had over the last couple of years, as trainer Iain Jardine's runners are 7/546 (14.3% SR) for 260.7pts (+47.7% ROI) since the start of 2015, from which...

  • handicappers are 62/422 (14.7%) for 263.6pts (+62.5%)
  • males are 51/355 (14.4%) for 284pts (+80%)
  • those who last ran 6-25 days ago : 51/316 (16.1%) for 214.5pts (+67.9%)
  • Class 5 : 26/171 (15.2%) for 73.7pts (+43.1%)
  • 1m3f to 2m : 35/149 (23.5%) for 179.8pts (+120.7%)
  • on the A/W : 14/108 (13%) for 56.2pts (+52.1%)
  • LTO winners : 21/65 (32.3%) for 44.5pts (+68.5%)

And if you just backed his non-NH male handicappers running within 25 days of their last outing, you'd have 30 winners from 173 (17.3%) over the two years and profits of 218.3pts at an ROI of 126.2%, including...

  • Class 5 : 12.53 (22.6%) for 94.1pts (+177.5%)
  • over 1m3f to 2m : 13/51 (25.5%) for 118.3pts (+232%)
  • on the A/W : 7/41 (17.1%) for 79.7pts (+194.3%)
  • and LTO winners are 7/26 (26.9%) for 18.3pts (+70.5%)

You could, of course, then continue to combine the above into smaller micros, but I feel it dilutes the sample size down too much to a point where 1 result (good or bad) could badly skew the figures, so I'll leave it there...

...and place...a 1pt win bet on L'Inganno Felice @ 5/1 BOG which was widely available (10 places) at 5.30pm on Monday, so we should all be able to get on at that price. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard