Tag Archives: geegeez racing tips

Stat of the Day, 3rd May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

5.35 Brighton : Rastacap @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 6/1 (Led until halfway, soon lost place, eased over 1f out)

We continue now with Thursday's...

4.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG

An 8-runner, Class 4,  7f A/W Handicap (3yo) on polytrack worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

He's a 3 yr old gelding who has won both his handicap starts to date, both here at Lingfield over course and distance and both under today's jockey Dan Muscutt.

His trainer James Fanshawe is well known for being successful on the polytrack at not-too-distant Kempton Park, but he has fared well here too in recent years, despite not sending many to this venue!

In fact, since the start of 2015, he has been represented just 31 times in A/W handicaps here, but with 9 winners (29% SR) generating profits of 11.44pts (+36.9% ROI), it has certainly been worth his (and his followers) time.

And with today's contest in mind, those 31 handicappers are...

  • 9/26 (34.6%) for 16.44pts (+63.2%) when sent off at 7/1 or shorter
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 18.44pts (+76.8%) when running off a mark of 60 to 85
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 17.1pts (+95%) from male runners
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 11.88pts (+84.9%) as 3 yr olds
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 9.76pts (+75%) when ridden by Dan Muscutt
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 10.3pts (+128.7%) over this 7f course and distance
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.17pts (+52.1%) in 3yo only races
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 3.7pts (+46.3%) as LTO winners
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 6.79pts (+113.1%) at Class 4...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG which was available from half a dozen firms at 5.50pm on Wednesday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd May 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

4.15 Yarmouth : Ramblow @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 4/1 (Close up, ridden over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

We continue now with Wednesday's...

5.35 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rastacap @ 5/1 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 5,  7f Flat Handicap (3yo) on Good To Soft worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Firstly, I started with the racecard (usually a good place to start!) and the Geegeez pace/draw tabs give a good indication of how similar races to this one have played out in the past. I quickly saw that horses who like to lead were most successful and that horses drawn low fared best from that perspective.

So, back to the card itself and I see that not only is our girl drawn in stall 1, but she's the only one who likes to get on with it leading to the Pace Forecast to suggest that Probable Lone Speed would be the outcome today ie she might well get out fast and hope to hold on. Brighton is a tricky place to win from behind in such contests and there's every chance we could nick it from the front and with Luke Morris on board, I'm confident that he'll judge it best.

And now the numbers!

This 3 yr old filly is trained by Mark Johnston and is one of seven runners representing the yard today, but the only one to be sent on the long trip to Brighton, but that's not a worry to me, because Mark's runners here are 31/140 (22.1% SR) for 47.1pts (+33.6% ROI) since 2008. To show, I'm not leaning on old data, they were 7/19 (36.8%) for 4.6pts (+24.2%) last season.

Of those 140 Brighton runners, handicappers are 21/90 (23.3% SR) for 62.2pts (+69.1% ROI), from which...

  • 3 yr olds are 17/64 (26.6%) for 37.5pts (+58.5%)
  • those who last raced 1 to 4 weeks earlier : 17/62 (27.4%) for 70.6pts (+113.8%)
  • over the last 5 seasons : 13/53 (24.5%) for 15.7pts (+29.6%)
  • at SP odds of 6/4 to 11/2 : 14/51 (27.5%) for 10.24pts (+20.1%)
  • at Class 5 : 6/31 (19.4%) for 4.4pts (+14.1%)
  • yard's only runner at the track that day : 9/25 (36%) for 13.9pts (+55.6%)
  • and Luke Morris is 1/1 (100%) for 2.5pts (+250%)

Based on the above, you could concentrate on the following...last 5 seasons / 3 yr olds / Class 4+5 / SP odds of 6/4 to 8/1 and who last ran 1 to 4 weeks ago. Backing such runners stands at 10/22 (45.5% SR) for 29.8pts (+135.3% ROI)...

...whilst more generally over the last two years, Mark Johnston's runners on the Flat over trips of 6 to 7.5 furlongs on ground no worse than soft are 116/679 (17.1% SR) for 162pts (+23.9% ROI) profit, including...

  • those last seen 11-30 days earlier : 62/363 (17.1%) for 82.4pts (+22.7%)
  • females are 46/285 (16.1%) for 161.8pts (+56.8%)
  • Class 5 : 44/189 (23.3%) for 48pts (+25.4%)

AND... Class 5 females returning from a short 11-30 day break are 8/39 (20.5% SR) for 53.5pts (+137.2% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Rastacap @ 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Tuesday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

4.55 Wolverhampton : Star Ascending @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (in touch, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace)

We kick off the new month via Tuesday's...

4.15 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ramblow @ 9/2 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 5,  7f Fillies Handicap (4yo+) on Good To Soft worth£3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old mare is in decent form right now, having finished 112 in her last three outings and was only beaten by three quarters of a length when last seen 33 days ago. That was over 8.5 furlongs at Wolverhampton off a mark of 62.

She now drops back in trip and jockey Nicola Currie is back in the saddle (she didn't ride LTO, but did ride the two recent wins) and she takes 5lbs off a mark already 3lbs lower for the switch back to turf, so we're effectively 8lbs better off and a shorter trip! So, providing she handles the conditions today, she could potentially be very well treated at the weights.

She's only won twice in her career so far, but she's 2 from 6 at 7/8 furlongs and 2/2 under Nicola Currie. Both wins have come this year, in fields of 8-11 runners whilst wearing cheekpieces and one win was at this Class 5 level.

And the class of the race is quite pertinent, as her trainer Mick Appleby is a dab hand at winning such contests and is profitable to follow in Class 5 Flat handicaps with 55 winners from 443 (12.4% SR) providing followers with 420.9pts profit at a 95% ROI since 2010 and with today's race in mind, the following dozen angles are also profitable for those not wanting to back all 443 qualifiers...

  • in races worth less than £4,000 : 52/418 (12.4%) for 422.65pts (+101.1%)
  • those beaten by further than a neck LTO are 52/381 (13.7%) for 462.45pts (+121.4%)
  • those rated (OR) 56 to 70 are 43/353 (12.2%) for 446pts (+126.4%)
  • those who last ran 11 to 90 days earlier are 43/307 (14%) for 453.75pts (+147.8%)
  • those racing in midweek (Tues-Thurs) are 34/222 (15.3%) for 448.6pts (+202.1%)
  • those racing over trips of 6 to 9 furlongs are 27/202 (13.4%) for 386.8pts (+191.5%)
  • those now rated (OR) 2 to 6lbs lower than LTO are 17/120 (14.2%) for 388.8pts (+324%)
  • those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 19/100 (19%) for 69.12pts (+69.1%)
  • those dropping in trip by 1 to 2 furlongs are 14/78 (17.9%) for 73.48pts (+94.2%)
  • those racing at this 7f trip are 8/51 (15.7%) for 53.25pts (+104.4%)
  • those ridden by a jockey claiming 5lbs are 6/44 (13.6%) for 25.47pts (+57.9%)
  • and those sent here to Yarmouth are 5 from 38 (13.2%) for 20.66pts (+54.4%)

You can, of course, then combine some of the above to make micros for yourself, but I'll leave it here for now...

...by placing...a 1pt win bet on Ramblow @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Monday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th April 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.00 Wolverhampton : Leoro @ 5/1 BOG WON at 6/4 (Held up, headway after 2f, went 2nd over 11f out, led 3f out, clear 2f out, eased towards finish, but still won by 3.25 lengths)

Our last pick of the month goes in Monday's...

4.55 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Star Ascending @ 7/2 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 4,  1m4f A/W Handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £5757 to the winner... 

Why?

This was actually my second best selection for Saturday behind Leoro, our 5/1 winner, but this was a non-runner and quickly reappears. Here's why I was (and still am) keen to back it...

He's a 6 yr old gelding in the form of his life right now, having won seven of his last eleven, finishing as a runner-up in two of the four defeats. All 11 were in A/W handicaps, including a course and distance win here last time out, 23 days ago, which took his A/W handicap tally to 9 wins from 31, including of relevance today...

  • 7 from 26 over 1m3f/1m4f and 8 from 23 with less than 26 days rest
  • 6 from 19 over 1m4f and 6 from 12 under jockey Joe Fanning
  • 6 from 12 at odds of 4/1 & shorter and 3 from 11 here at Wolverhampton
  • 5 from 9 in blinkers and 3 from 9 over course and distance
  • 6 from 8 as a 6 yr old and 4 from 8 in fields of 9/10 runners

So, he's comfortable with the task ahead, what about his trainer?

Well, Jennie Candlish's horses are 20 from 80 (25% SR) for 46.25pts profit at an ROI of 57.8% in A/W races since the start of 2016 and with today's contest firmly in mind, those 80 are...

  • 19/71 (26.8%) for 49.6pts (+69.9%) in handicaps
  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 26.83pts (+63.9%) at Wolverhampton
  • 10/37 (27%) for 31.83pts (+86%) in handicaps here at Wolves
  • 10/24 (41.7%) for 29.76pts (+124%) with Joe Fanning in the saddle
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 26.1pts (+118.7%) in hcps with Mr Fanning riding
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 26pts (+236.5%) in April
  • 4/10 (40%) for 18.05pts (+180.5%) with Joe Fanning in Wolves hcps
  • 4/8 (50%) for 29pts (+362.7%) in April handicaps
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 15.52pts (+776%) in Wolverhampton April handicaps with Joe Fanning in the saddle!

Phew, but wait, there's more!

Since the start of 2015, Jennie's LTO winners have won again 29 times from 103 (28.2% SR) generating profits of 65.24pts (+63.3% ROI), from which...

  • handicappers are 27/92 (29.4%) for 67.58pts (+73.5%)
  • those who last raced in the previous 45 days are 27/90 (30%) for 55.21pts (+61.3%)
  • handicappers within 45 days of last run are 25/81 (30.9%) for 55.55pts (+68.6%)
  • on the A/W : 7/17 (41.2%) for 30.05pts (+176.8%)
  • over 1m4f to 1m6f : 6/12 950%) for 36.58pts (+304.8%)
  • with Joe Fanning  : 6/9 (66.6%) for 27.19pts (+302.1%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 4/8 (50%) for 28.76pts (+359.5%)

And I think I'll stop there before I lose you!

...final advice is...a 1pt win bet on Star Ascending @ 7/2 BOG which was available from at least half a dozen firms at 7.35pm on Sunday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.55 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th April 2018

Friday's Runner was...

2.15 Doncaster : Call Out Loud @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on, held towards finish)

Our next runner goes in Saturday's...

6.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Leoro @ 5/1 BOG

A 13-runner, Class 6,  1m6f A/W Handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

A lightly raced (just 2 hurdle outings followed by 3 on A/W so far) 4 yr old who was a course and distance winner on his only previous visit to Wolverhampton. That was two starts ago and he narrowly failed to follow that up when beaten by half a length stepped up by 2f last time out four weeks ago at Chelmsford.

Back down in trip and back on tapeta, he stands a really good chance at a decent price today representing trainer Charlie Mann, who doesn't actually send many to run on the A/W at all, just 37 since 2008 in fact!

Of those 37, 8 (21.6% SR) have been winners and have produced 62.5pts profit at an ROI of some 168.9% and with today's race in mind, those 37 are...

  • 7/33 (21.2%) for 57.8pts (+175.2%) in handicaps
  • 8/32 (25%) for 67.5pts (+210.9%) in the October to May period
  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 38.48pts (+167.3%) after a break of 11-45 days
  • 4/21 (19.1%) for 9.2pts (+43.8%) at Class 6
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 49.77pts (+261.9%) since 2013
  • 6/15 (40%) for 70.27pts (+468.5%) at 1m3f to 1m6f
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 28.6pts (+190.5%) from 4 yr olds
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.21pts (+77.6%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.67pts (+189%) on tapeta here at Wolverhampton
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 1.44pts (+48%) ridden by Shane Kelly.

More recently (ie over the last two years), Charlie's Flat/AW runners at 1m3f to 1m6f are 6 from 12 (50% SR) for 57.7pts (+480.7% ROI) profit with a record of 2/4 (50%) for 8.85pts (+221.2%) at 1m6f.

It's also worth noting that as Leoro is Charlie's only runner anywhere today that since 2013, his "solo entries" are 48/258 (18.6% SR) for 173.1pts (+67.1% ROI) in handicaps, from which...

  • those rested for 11-30 days are 36/162 (22.2%) for 176.7pts (+109.1%)
  • LTO runners-up are 11/37 (29.7%) for 37.3pts (+100.9%)
  • in April : 7/35 (20%) for 31.4pts (+89.7%)
  • those who lost by 0.25 to 4 lengths LTO are 12/30 (40%) for 59.8pts (+199.3%)
  • 4 yr olds are 4/15 (26.7%) for 62.7pts (+417.8%)
  • on the Flat/AW : 4/13 (30.8%) for 19.21pts (+147.8%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.75pts (+221.9%)
  • and here at Wolverhampton : 2/5 (40%) for 4.77pts (+95.4%)

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Leoro @ 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfred, Paddy Power, Totesport & Unibet at 6.20pm on Friday with Betfair offering a half point more at 11/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th April 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

8.35 Chelmsford : Ode To Autumn @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Keen tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to go 2nd towards finish, no threat to winner)

Our next runner goes in Friday's...

2.15 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Call Out Loud @ 4/1 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 5,  7f Flat Handicap (34yo+) on soft ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 69-rated 6 yr old gelding was a runner-up last time out 6 days ago, when heading the "wrong" group in a big field (19 ran!) at relatively nearby Thirsk off the same mark as today.

To date, he's a former Doncaster winner, a winner on both good to soft and heavy (I'm not sure which way the weather will go nowadays!), a winner after just five days rest and has the following of relevance today...

  • 7 wins from 29 with a tongue tie
  • 5 from 20 under jockey Ali Rawlinson
  • 5 from 19 at this trip
  • 5 from 18 in a visor
  • 5 from 16 at Class 5
  • 1 from 2 over course and distance

His trainer Mick Appleby has his horses in decent enough form, with 6 winners from 32 (18.75% SR) generating profits of 17.082pts at an ROI of 55.7% over ther last month, including...

  • Class 5 : 3/12 (25%) for 9.49pts (+79.1%)
  • Ali Rawlinson : 2/6 (33.3%) for 2.76pts (+46.1%)

The Class 5 angle is key here, much of SotD's output is done at or around this level and I have a small group of trainers to keep an eye on at this grade, especially in UK Flat (turf) handicaps and Mr Appleby is one of them, for since 2010, his record in UK Class 5 Flat handicaps stands at 55/440 (12.5% SR) for 423.94pts (+96.35% ROI) and these 440 runners include the following of relevance today...

  • Sub-£4k prize money : 52/416 (12.5%) for 424.7pts (+102.1%)
  • beaten by 0.25 lengths or more LTO : 52/378 (13.8%) for 465.5pts (+123.1%)
  • OR of 61 to 70 : 39/284 (13.7%) for 463.7pts (+163.3%)
  • males : 35/269 (13%) for 387.3pts (+144%)
  • over 6 to 9 furlongs : 27/199 (13.6^) for 389.8pts (+195.9%)
  • in Yorkshire : 21/172 (12.2%) for 279.7pts (+162.6%)
  • 2nd or 3rd LTO : 19/99 (19.2%) for 70.12pts (+70.8%)
  • 6 to 9 yr olds  :15/94 (16%) for 119.5pts (+127.1%)
  • over 7f : 8/50 (16%) for 54.25pts (+108.5%)
  • Doncaster : 5/47 (10.6%) for 11.9pts (+25.3%)
  • and former course and distance winners are 8/27 (29.6%) for 95.4pts (+353.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Call Out Loud @ 4/1 BOG which was available from 10 Bet, Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, SkyBet & SportPesa at 4.55pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th April 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

6.55 Lingfield : My Target @ 6/1 BOG 5th at 9/2 (Mid-division on inside, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, weakened well inside final furlong)

Our next runner goes in Thursday's...

8.35 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ode To Autumn @ 3/1 BOG

A 5-runner, Class 4,  1m A/W Handicap (3yo) on polytrack worth £7310 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has won twice and made the fame a further three times from his six starts so far with finishes of 211 on the All-Weather, including 2 wins from 2 over the 1m trip, the most recent being an LTO success 69 days ago.

His trainer, John Gosden, is bang in form, as typified by...

  • 18 winners from 50 (36% SR) in the last 30 days
  • 13 from 37 (35.1%) over the last fortnight
  • and 8 from 20 (40%) over the last week.

On top of this, Johnny's LTO winners are 147/488 (30.1% SR) for 137pts (+28.1% ROI) since 2014, from which...

  • April runners are 35/85 (41.2%) for 50pts (+58.8%)
  • and Class 4 runners are 27/77 (35.1%) for 18.5pts (+24.1%)

Whilst in the same 2014-18 time frame, his runners returning from a break of more than 60 days are 134/487 (27.5% SR) for 87.9pts (+18.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • LTO winners : 56/163 (34.4%) for 45.8pts (+28.1%)
  • in April : 54/153 (35.3%) for 33pts (+21.6%)
  • on Polytrack : 37/107 (34.6%) for 16.8pts (+15.7%)
  • over a 1m trip : 32/104 (30.8%) for 75.7pts (+72.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 32/104 (30.8%) for 45.8pts (+44%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 12/22 (54.6%) for 20.5pts (+93.1%)

And finally for now (!), it's worth noting that this is Mr Gosden's only runner here today and in fact his only runner anywhere all day, and when sending just one handicapper out to a meeting since 2013, he has come home with the prize money on 52 of 199 (26.1% SR) occasions rewarding followers with 47.4pts [profit at an ROI of 23.8%, from which...

  • his only runner all day : 20/89 (22.5%) for 20.7pts (+23.3%)
  • at Chelmsford : 4/12 933.3%) for 8pts (+66.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ode To Autumn @ 3/1 BOG which was available from 10Bet, BetVictor, Betway, Coral & SportPesa at 5.50pm on Wednesday, whilst Bet365 were a shade better at 10/3 BOG. In fact 11/4 BOG was still widely available at 8.15am on Thursday, so we should all manage to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.35 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th April 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

7.40 Brighton : Pour La Victoire @ 9/2 BOG WON at 10/3 (Dwelt towards rear, headway over 1f out, ridden and stayed on to lead towards finish)

Our next runner goes in Wednesday's...

6.55 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Target @ 6/1 BOG

A 11-runner, Class 3,  1m A/W Handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £7246 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a runner up last time out when only beaten by a length in a similar contest over course and distance 32 days ago. Since then the 4th placed horse (1.25 lengths back) Poet's Society has turned back out here and won.

Hope fully our boy can do the same as he's admittedly on a run that reads 0 win from 11 over the last 13 months, but with 3 top three finishes in his last five starts, a victory today would be a massive surprise, nor would it be out of turn, especially as he is 7 from 26 (26.9% SR) on the All-Weather, including...

  • 7 from 21 (33.3%) going left handed
  • 6 from 20 (30%) on Polytrack
  • 5 from 17 (29.4%) over a mile
  • 6 from 14 (42.9%) here at Lingfield
  • and 5 from 12 (41.7%) over course and distance

His trainer Michael Wigham's own stats here at Lingfield are obviously aided by the above data, but he doesn't entirely rely on the one horse here, as since 2009, his Lingfield A/W handicappers are 18/113 (15.9% SR) for 58.6pts (+51.8% ROI), which include..

  • over 1m to 1m2f : 13/61 (21.3%) for 74.95pts (+122.9%)
  • at Classes 2 to 4 : 7/32 (21.9%) for 87.96pts (+274.9%)
  • and over 1m to 1m2f at Classes 2 to 4 : 7/20 (35%) for 99.96pts (+499.8%)

Now the above profit and respective ROI figures are a little skewed by a 33/1 winner that paid 80.3pts at betfair SP, but even if you took 47pts off the bottom line, the numbers still stack up well.

And finally, going back the run of 11 losses in a row for this horse, this can be offputting for many, but it's worth noting that since 2014, Michael Wigham's handicappers running off a mark lower than their last winning level which was more than 5 nut less than 15 races ago are 7/43 (16.3% SR) for 10.96pts at an ROI of 25.5%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Target @ 6/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betbright, Betfair, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.55 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th April 2018

Monday's Runner was...

2.20 Hexham : Sky Full Of Stars @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, jumped right 5th, went 2nd after 2 out, kept on under pressure, no impression on winner)

Our next runner goes in Tuesday's...

7.40 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pour La Victoire @ 9/2 BOG

A 13-runner, Class 6,  1m Flat Handicap (4yo+) on good to firm ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

Well, he's an 8 yr old gelding in decent form, having made the frame in 4 of his last five starts. They were all on the All-Weather and he gets to run here some 11lbs lower on turf, which could prove significant considering he's coming here to Brighton, where he already has 5 wins and 6 further places from 17 efforts including...

  • 2 wins, 2 places from 7 over this course and distance
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 6 at Class 6
  • 2 wins, 2 places at Class 6 over this course and distance
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 on good to firm ground

In addition to his own suitability, trainer Tony Carroll is 7/24 (29.2% SR) for 45.16pts (+188.2% ROI) over the last four weeks with a record of 5/11 (45.5%) for 49.24pts (+447.7%) over the last fortnight.

But it's not just recent trainer form that sways opinion, as since 2010 here at Brighton, Tony's horses are 30/190 (15.8% SR) for 42.73pts (+22.5% ROI) with handicappers winning 29 of 182 (15.9%) for 48.68pts (+26.75%) and of these 182 'cappers...

  • those tilting at prizes worth less than £8k are 28/172 (16.3%) for 51.55pts (+30%)
  • 4-9 yr olds are 26/147 (17.7%) for 64.46pts (+43.9%)
  • 4-9 yr olds competing for less than £8k are 26/138 (18.8%) for 73.5pts (+53.2%)
  • those ridden by George Downing are 8/53 (15.1%) for 45.23pts (+85.3%)
  •  and 4-9 yr olds competing for less than £8k, ridden by George Downing are 8/40 (20%) for 58.23pts (+145.6%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Pour La Victoire @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Bet365 at 5.30pm on Monday, although SkyBet were half a point better at 5/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd April 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

2.45 Bangor : Red Devil Star @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (In touch, hampered 1st, chased leaders 5 out, pushed along next, stayed on same pace from 2 out)

We seek an upturn in fortunes via Monday's...

2.20 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sky Full Of Stars @ 3/1 BOG

A 11-runner, Class 5,  1m7.5f Handicap Chase (5yo+) on soft ground worth £4549 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding has one win and one place from three runs over fences this year, all over 2m 0.5f on heavy ground and he was only narrowly beaten (0.75 lengths) when 21 lengths clear of the 3rd place horse at relatively nearby Newcastle last time out nine days.

He jumped much better than the winner and the omission of the last fence that day possibly made a difference to the end result, but who knows?

He also has one win and one place from three efforts over fences at this trip and this slight drop in distance allied to better racing ground might just swing it for him/us.

His trainer James Ewart has actually been profitable to back blindly in NH handicaps over recent years, as his 79 winners from 523 (15.1% SR) since the start of 2013 have been worth 81.1pts at an ROI of 15.5%, but rather than blanket betting, let's just take a quick look at the chasers from that dataset...

  • on soft ground : 10/56 (17.9%) for 16.46pts (+29.4%)
  • 4-15 days since last run : 12/34 (35.3%) for 14.48pts (+42.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 10/33 (30.3%) for 27.32pts (+82.8%)
  • and here at Hexham : 6/17 (35.3%) for 19.67pts (+115.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Sky Full Of Stars @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!