Tag Archives: free racing tips

Stat of the Day, 2nd November 2015

Stat of the Day, 2nd November 2015

Saturday's Result :

1.35 Newmarket : Banksea @ 11/4 BOG : 3rd at 3/1 (Took keen hold tracking leaders, driven to challenge over 1f out, every chance approaching final furlong, no extra closing stages)

Monday's selection runs in the...

2.40 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ascendant @ 6/1 BOG

Why?

Since the start of 2014, relatively new trainer Johnny Farrelly has had some decent success since the switch from battered and bruised jumps jockey, particularly in handicap hurdles, where he has already had 17 winners from 116 runners (14.7% SR) for level stakes profits of 34pts at an ROI of 29.3%. And whilst that alone is a stat worth following, we do like to see if there are any strong angles to be found.

And with today's race in mind, those 116 runners are (in descending sample size)...

  • 15/97 (15.5% SR) for 39.2pts (+40.4% ROI) from male runners
  • 16/94 (17% SR) for 42.2pts (+44.9% ROI) with 7 to 11 yr olds
  • 12/40 (30% SR) for 28pts (+70% ROI) at odds below 7/1
  • 5/20 (25% SR) for 36.7pts (+183.4% ROI) at Class 3
  • 2/4 (50% SR) for 17.74pts (+443.5% ROI) here at Ludlow

The optimum Farrelly handicap hurdler is a male aged 7 to 10 at odds below 7/1, because they are 10 fom 30 (33.33% SR) for 24.3pts at an ROI of 81%, with Class 3 runners winning 3 of 5 (60% SR) for 15pts (+300% ROI) and Ludlow runners are 1/2 for 5.67pts, both in C3 contests and both were today's pick...

...Ascendant who was pretty useful on the Flat which I always like to see in a hurdler, and he won 3 from 6 on the level, including 2 wins at 1m6f.

He has since won 6 of 21 over hurdles, which is a decent 28.6% strike rate and those 21 runs look a little like this...

  • 5/14 right handed
  • 3/4 on Flat/NH when running 4 to 11 months after his last run (2/3 over hurdles)
  • 2/3 (112) here at Ludlow
  • 2 wins at this grade
  • 1/1 at 2m5.5f, but hasn't actually competed at 2m5f.
  • 1/3 in the tongue tie.
  • has already won off today's mark of 130 and was second off the same figure LTO.

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Ascendant at 6/1 BOG with any one of around eight firms. I'm using Bet365 today, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 28th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 28th October 2015

Tuesday's Result :

2.05 Lingfield : Starlight Symphony @ 4/1 BOG : 5th at 6/1 (Raced wide in touch, ridden 2f out, not trouble leaders) and Houghton/Fahy teamed up for a 6/1 winner an hour later!

Wednesday's selection runs in the...

3.40 Fakenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Road To Freedom @ 100/30 BOG

Why?

Trainer Lucy Wadham has a 25% strike rate at this venue since 2008 and that alone sparked my initial interest. The numbers behind that strike rate are 22 winners from 88 runners and level stakes profits of 35.3pts at a healthy lick of 40.1%.

Here's my "magnificent seven" race-relevant stats that I've taken from those 88 runners...

  1. those priced at 11/10 to 12/1 are 20/76 (26.3% SR) for 43.5pts (+57.3% ROI)
  2. at trips longer than 2 miles : 22/71 (31% SR) for 52.3pts (+73.6% ROI)
  3. those with at least 8 runs under their belts : 20/60 (33.3% SR) for 51.5pts (+85.9% ROI)
  4. handicappers : 16/53 (30.2% SR) for 43.7pts (+82.4% ROI)
  5. 6 to 8 yr olds : 10/38 (26.3% SR) for 25.2pts (+66.3% ROI)
  6. ridden by Leighton Aspell : 11/37 (29.7% SR) for 23.7pts (+64.1% ROI)
  7. chasers are 15/35 (42.9% ROI) for 32.2pts (+92% ROI)

And let's chuck everything in together and make a 10-step micro, shall we? Lucy Wadham / Fakenham / 2009-15 (no qualifiers in 2008) / SP of 2.75 to 10.0 / trips of 2m4f and beyond / 8+ career runs / aged 6 to 11 / ridden by Leighton Aspell / handicap / chase : 5/10 = 50% SR for 23.74pts (+237.4% ROI) with three of the last four all winning.

That last micro was just a bit of fun (for us stattos anyway!), but mixing and matching from that list will make you some very usable angles for the coming season.

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Road To Freedom at 100/30 BOG with either of Bet365 or BetVictor.

I've gone with Bet365, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Fakenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 26th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 26th October 2015

Saturday's Result :

3.00 Newbury : What About Carlo @ 8/1 E/W BOG : 9th at 7/1 (Slowly into stride, always towards rear)

Monday's selection runs in the...

2.45 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Derryfadda @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

Trainer Richard Ford's record with horses priced at 6/4 to 12/1 in NH handicaps since the start of 2008 stands at 26 winners from 148 (17.6% SR) for level stakes profits of 38.9pts at an ROI of 26.5%, and with today's race in mind, those runners are...

  • aged 5 to 8 : 21/106 (19.8% SR) for 44.3pts (+41.8% ROI)
  • Class 5 : 15/87 (17.2% SR) for 24.4pts (+28.4% ROI)
  • ridden by Harry Challoner : 11/66 (16.7% SR) for 34.4pts (+52.9% ROI)
  • hurdlers : 11/60 (18.3% SR) for 42.1pts (+70.1% ROI)

And... Richard Ford's 5 to 8 yr old, Class 3 to 5 handicap hurdlers priced at 5/2 to 12/1 ridden by Harry Challoner are 6 from 22 (27.3% SR) for 39.5pts (+179.5% ROI).

I should also throw in the fact that since 2008, Class 3 to 5 handicap hurdlers, aged 5 to 9, sent out 2 to 5 days after their run, have won 176/895 (19.7% SR) contests for profits of 808.4pts at an ROI of 90.3%, provided that recent run wasn't their first in the last three months.

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Derryfadda at 5/1 BOG with either of Coral, BetVictor, Betfair and/or Hills, whilst Betway are the same price, but don't go BOG until 10.00am and have a minimum £10 stake to get BOG whilst Ladbrokes will go BOG at 9.00am

I've gone with Coral, as they'll refunds a defeat by up to a head, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

SotD : Monday 23/02/15

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2015

Mister Rockandroll did nothing wrong on Saturday and virtually made all until basically running out of steam inside the final furlong.

He was weakening and wandering off a true line when the eventual winner cam up his inside and although Joe Fanning did his level best to get our runner back up again, we had to settle for second best.

The final margin of defeat was three parts of a length and Mister Rockandroll was sent off at 7/2, half a point shorter than advised.

Monday kicks off a new week with a crack at the...

2.35 Plumpton:

And a 9/4 BOG wager on Tom Scudamore's ride, in this Class 4 handicap chase over 2m 1f on heavy ground, Nomadic Storm, a fairly lightly raced 9 yr old...

...who is trained by David Bridgwater...

...whose record over the last few years is excellent here at Plumpton. Since the start of 2011, 10 of his 43 runners (23.3% SR) at this track have been winners, generating level stakes profits of 6.9pts at a reasonable ROI of 16.1%. His runners priced at 6/1 or shorter are 9/23 (39.1% SR) for 10.7pts (+46.6% ROI), whilst his handicappers are 8.25 (32% SR) for 145pts (+58.2% ROI).

His runners in handicap chases have won an impressive 8 of 19 (42.1% SR) producing 20.5pts (+108.1% ROI) profit with those chasers priced at 9/2 or shorter winning 7 of 13 (53.8% SR) for 10.4pts (+80.% ROI) with a 2/4 for 1.72pts record on heavy ground.

...and David's horses seem to like the mud...

Since the start of 2014, David's heavy ground runners are 10/37 (27% SR) for 15.1pts (+40.8% ROI) profit, with his chasers accounting for most of the success, winning 8 of 20 races (40% SR) and making 16.5pts (+82.5% ROI) profit in the process.

Of the chasers on heavy ground, David's go-to jockey of late has been Tom Scudamore, who had ridden 5 winners from 7 Bridgwater heavy ground chasers for an impressive strike rate of 71.4% with commensurate profits of 20.8pts at an ROI of 297.1%!

Tom does tend to do well on David's horses, though...

...riding 39 winners from 188 attempts (20.7% SR) for 93.9pts (+49.9% ROI) profit. In handicap chases, those figures become 24/92 (26.1% SR) for 50.5pts (+54.9% ROI) with those priced at 6/1 or shorter winning 19 of 60 (31.7% SR) for 21.5pts (+35.8% ROI)

..and he has a good record here at Plumpton...

with 26 wins from 95 (27.4% SR) since the start of 2010 producing profits of 35.7pts at an ROI of 37.6%. Handicap chasers account for 10 wins from 26 (38.5% SR) and 11.7pts of the profit (+45.1% ROI).

13 of those chasers have, of course, been trained by David Bridgwater and Tom has 6 winners (46.2% SR) from them and 7.3pts (+56.1% ROI) profit and on those priced at 9/2 or shorter, the record is 6/11 (54.5% SR) for 9.3pts (+84.5% ROI).

For his part, Nomadic Storm was unplaced in 2 bumpers and five hurdle races for Graeme McPherson, before switching to the Bridgwater yard 10 months ago. David immediately decided he'd be a chaser and all five starts for his new yard have been over fences with finishes of 31213 revitalising this horse.

So, he's now 2/5 over fences (all ridden by Mr Scudamore) and that includes a 1/1 record on heavy ground. He has won over 2m and 2m 0.5f and was third on his only effort over today's 2m1f, but that was his chasing debut here over course and distance, so I'm not expecting track trip or conditions to be unsuitable today.

There might be doubts about him returning from a break of 259 days, though, and this is probably why he's not even shorter than 9/4 BOG. There is some comfort though, to those of you who might have some reservations about an 8.5 month absence, as it's not unusual for this yard to win with returners.

In fact, since 2010, David Bridgwater's record with chasers coming off the back of a break of 6 months or more is 9/40 (22.5% SR) for 49.2pts (+123% ROI) profit with an 8/24 (33.3% SR) record from those priced 10/1 or shorter, generating 25.3pts profit at an ROI of 105.4%.

Nomadic Storm is by no mean a shoo-in, but the deluge of stats supporting his case suggests that there could well be some value in a 1pt win bet at 9/4 BOG. This price is widely available and I've placed mine with Bet365, but you can see all the various odds when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 2.35 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 16th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th May 2014

Intense Feeling was an 11/4 success on Thursday to get us back amongst the winners.

She hit the front with over a furlong to go and jockey Noel Garbutt kept her up to her work to ensure she got home relatively comfortably by three parts of a length.

South Lanarkshire is the next port of call on the SotD tour, as we head back into Scotland to tackle the...

8.40 Hamilton:

A Class 6 handicap over six furlongs, where I'm siding with Ruth Carr's Hab Reeh for this competitive-looking contest.

Hab Reeh is a former course and distance winner and comes here on the back of a win at Newcastle over today's trip seventeen days ago and now seeks to add to Mrs Carr's long list of handicap winners.

Over the last five years, Ruth Carr has seen 948 of her horses sent off at SPs of between 5/2 & 12/1 in handicap contests: a very large sample size for me to work with! A more than reasonable 140 of these runners (14.8% SR) have gone on to win and if you'd wagered £10 on each of them, you'd currently be £1143.70 to the good, a return of just over 12% above stakes.

Mrs Carr has a slightly better record on lower grade handicaps under the same restrictions as above with 123 winners from 784 runners representing a strike rate of 15.7% and the resultant 145.63pts profit is the equivalent of 18.6% of stakes.

Over the last four years, Ruth has sent out 26 former C&D winners in the 5/2 to 9/1 odds range on the back of a win (anywhere over any trip!) last time out and seven of the twenty-six (26.9% SR) were victorious, netting profits of 16.5pts (+63.4% ROI).

Hamilton is also one of those courses where former course and distance winners do well especially when returning to the track in decent form. In fact, horses who won their last race prior to a return to Hamilton and who were already former course and distance winners, have won 22 of 87 races over the last four years with that 25.3% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 39.9pts or 45.9% of stakes.

From those 87 runners, 66 were sent off in the 5/2 to 12/1 price range and 17 of the 66 (25.8% SR) went on to win, resulting in 46.5pts profit, an ROI of 70.4%.

Hab Reeh roared back to form last time out at Newcastle winning by more than two lengths after controlling the race from more than a furlong from home. He could probably have won by further if desired and although a 6lb rise is probably fair, I'm not sure it will be enough to stop him going in again.

He does seem to be something of a "confidence" horse who goes through phases of not looking like winning, but when he does win, he tends to run well again next time out and even if he doesn't win today, I expect him to be there or thereabouts, opening the gate for a possible E/W saver bet.

A quick look at the racecard show that 16 runners are set to go to post for this one, so we can get on board with a bookie paying out 4 places at a reasonable price and to that end I'm placing a 0.5pts E/W bet on Hab Reeh at 6/1 BOG with PP (Paddy Power), but as always I urge you to seek out the best deal for yourself. To do this, simply...

...click here for the latest betting on the 8.40 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 9th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th May 2014

We absolutely smashed the SP on yesterday's runner, Teajaybe who was steadily backed in from our 3/1 advised price to be sent off as the 11/10 favourite, meaning we'd certainly got the best value we could.

Them the stalls opened and that's where the good news ends, I'm afraid. He was well beaten (10 lengths) into sixth place with just two behind him. The commentators were being kind/diplomatic when they suggested the 3lb weight rise did for him. I just think he ran poorly, as horses sometimes do.

No point dwelling on a defeat, when there's racing every day, so let's look for a winner in the...

5.20 Lingfield:

Where I've backed Jeremy Noseda's 3-year-old yard debutant Mia San Triple at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor, on the back of her decent form shown in three starts for Peter Chapple-Hyam last season.

1. In the last few years, Jeremy Noseda's horses have performed well here at Lingfield with 26 of his 88 runners priced between Evens and 14/1 going on to win. This 29.6% strike rate has yielded 44.33pts profit at level stakes, a return of 50.4% on investment. I admit, that we don't often bet at 14/1 for SotD, but i wanted to give you an overview.

If we look at those priced at 7/1 or under, which is more our usual "zone", then he has still had a decent amount of success with 24 winners from 72 representing a 1-in-3 strike rate and the resultant 25.9pts profits are the equivalent of almost 36 pence from each pound wagered.

Interestingly, from the 72 above, his three-year olds have contributed 16 winners from 39 runs (41% SR) for 29.1pts (+74.6% ROI)

2. His record since 2011 in these 3yo+ maidens is also very encouraging with 26 winners from 97 runners for a 26.8% strike rate, which has to date produced 51.4pts profit at Betfair SP, an ROI of 53%. From those 97, he is 6/20 for 21.3pts here at Lingfield.

3. And since the turn of 2011, his 3yr olds have won 16 of 43 maidens on the all-weather when sent off below 7/1. It is a relatively small sample size, but it would be foolish to disregard at 37.2% strike rate that has already yielded 19.7pts at a return of 45.8%.

4. Mia San Triple will today become just the 38th 3yr old to be sent off at single-digit odds on debut for the Noseda yard, but 9 of the previous 37 have won (24.3% SR) producing 16.2pts profit (+43.7% ROI) and this is also encouraging.

The money is likely to come for newcomer Winter Thunder, whose pedigree suggests he'll be much better than this level in time, but I think he'll possibly need further than this trip and he might just need the run on debut for a yard that just isn't quite firing at present. Add to that the fact he's currently as short as 5/4, which offers no real value at all.

Mia San Triple, however, has the best form of those here, who have run previously, finishing 323 with some promise before switching yard. She was only narrowly beaten late on in her last Polytrack effort at Kempton two starts ago and she was third at Warwick last time out, 3.5 lengths behind Artistic Charm who was then rated at 85 for a group 3 contest at Newmarket three weeks ago.

Mia San Triple is rated 78, 3lbs lower than the other horse with any reasonable form, Inkerman, but we are carrying 17lbs than that one today. All of which makes me happy/confident enough of a 1pt win bet on Mia San Triple at 3/1 BOG, that's with BetVictor, but we realise other bookies are a available and you can see their prices, if you just...

...click here for the latest betting on the 5.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 24th April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 24th April 2014

Our winning run came to an end yesterday, but our selection On The Move was far from disgraced finishing third as he seemed to run out of steam late on.

We were the victims of a drift in price as went out from our advised 7/2 to a fairly big SP of 8/1, which I suppose technically would have made him an E/W bet by my "rules", but we did land a 7/1 winning drifter earlier in the week, so these things tend to even themselves out.

No time for what ifs and maybes, though, we need to go again and this time it's a Class 5, 6 furlong maiden in the...

2.10 Warwick:

Where I'm backing Ralph Beckett's 3yr old debutant Dinneratmidnight. The yard is in top form at present (6 wins and 3 places from 17 runners in the last 2 weeks) and consistently produces profits year in, year out.

1. Since the start of 2010 Mr Beckett has saddled up 240 winners from his 1337 runners priced at 16/1 or under (obvious outsiders all excluded!) and this 17.95% strike rate has yielded 244.4pts profit to date, a return of 18.3% above all stakes.

2. He tends to do better in non-handicap races with 123 winners of 641 races making a strike rate of 19.2% and the resultant profits of 170.4pts are the equivalent of 26.6% of stakes. This year alone, these runners are 7/28 for 46.53pts.

3. His three-year olds have a good record on debut with nine wins from 33 (27.3% SR) for 67.3pts (+203.9% ROI) profit in the last four years and the results this year have been brilliant so far, with four winners from six producing 42.35pts profit.

4. With the same 16/1 proviso as earlier, the yard's record with 3yr olds in maiden races is 28/91, a 30.8% strike rate generating 46.9pts (+51.5% ROI) profits and there have been two winners from seven this year already, resulting in 16pts profits.

There's not a great deal I can tell you about the horse himself, but he's by Kyllachy who offspring are 10/44 for 26.5pts when running at 7 furlongs or shorter here at Warwick and priced at 8/1 or shorter, with his three-year olds performing best (6/12 for 32.8pts). He's related to plenty of winner at 5/6 furlongs including Group 3 winner Dutch Masterpiece, so shouldn't lack for speed and should give a good account of himself first time out.

So, it's a 1pt win bet on Dinneratmidnight and I'm taking the 4/1 BOG on offer from Bet365, but I strongly recommend that you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 2.10 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 23rd April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd April 2014

Happy St. George's Day, everyone.

The last week has been nothing short of amazing here at SotD and after both Matt and myself had found winners hard to come by in March and early April, we're now on a run of five winning days in a row, but yesterday was truly special.

I had two runners that I struggled to choose between and in the end I went with One Track Mind at 11/4 BOG and when he got home by 6 lengths, I was delighted, even more so when I saw the payout was at 7/2 after a drift in the market.

The stats were too strong to ignore the following runner Ma De Fou, so like many of you, I was on that one too at 5/2 BOG and also on the double. Ma De Fou attracted support all day and went off at a very stingy 4/5. If anything, he was even more impressive than our main selection and ran out a winner by 10 lengths.

The upshot of all this was a win for SotD at 7/2, a supplementary win at 5/2 with the added bonus of a double at almost 15/1. And all that's before some of you linked my runners in with Matt's 25/1 double!

5 wins on the bounce for SotD and the site was awash with victories yesterday, so there's a little more pressure to find another winner today and I reckon that a friend of Geegeez is the man to turn to in the...

5.25 Taunton:

Where "the man" is Anthony Honeyball, trainer of several Geegeez-syndicated runners and one soon to appear (the aptly named The Geegeez Geegee). Anthony, somewhat unusually, has a total of four runners here for this meeting, but the one I'm most interested in is On The Move, who aims to repeat her C&D win from last time out a month ago.

The horse was stepping up considerably in trip for her handicap debut that day and was a 25/1 winner. We're not getting anywhere near that price this time, a mere 7/2 BOG is the best currently on offer.

Much of SotD's recent success has been built upon selecting trainers who are consistently profitable in handicap races and this is also the case here as...

1. Anthony Honeyball's record in NH Handicap contests since the start of 2010 shows that he has saddled up 40 winners from his 163 entries. That's a decent 24.5% strike rate which has produced level stakes profits of 111pts or 68.1% of stakes to date. From those 163 handicap runners, the record over hurdles is 25/96 (26% SR) for 86.2pts (+89.8% ROI)

If we imposed our nominal 6/1 odds cap, the handicappers' strike rate increases to a very healthy 36.1% ( 31 winners from 86) for 42.2pts profit (+40.8% ROI) with the hurdlers contributing 18 of the winners from 46 of the runners (39.1% SR) and 23.8pts of the profit, a yield of 39.3%.

2. Horses that won last time out at odds of 25/1 or higher and running within 60 days of that win at the same class (or up 1 grade) have won 105 of 467 races when priced at odds of under 10/1 since the start of 2010. This 22.5% strike rate has resulted in profits of 171.85pts, equivalent to 36.8% of stakes invested. Whilst with our 6/1 odds cap, the figures become 67/236 (28.4% SR) for 101.2pts (+42.9% ROI)

3. Former Taunton course and distance winners returning to Taunton on the back of a win (anywhere, not necessarily Taunton) have won 14 of 38 races (36.8% SR) in the last four years for profits of 12.6pts (+33% ROI). If that last run/win was here at this track, those figures are 12/31 (38.7% SR) for 15pts (40.2% ROI).

If we once again restrict ourselves to those runners priced at 6/1 or under, we get 14/30 (46.7% SR) for 20.6pts (+60% ROI) with those running here last time out winning 12 of 24 races (50% SR) for 22pts (+91.7% ROI) profit.

On The Move may have only beaten the re-opposing Frontier Vic by a head and a neck last time out, but I'm sure she'll come on for the benefit of that handicap debut and the same jockey is on board today for some familiarity, whereas there's a change of pilot for Frontier Vic.

4. I should also quickly mention that Mr Honeyball doesn't send many runners here, hence my surprise at seeing four declared, but those that come here do well. Over the last four years four of his fourteen hurdlers have been successful, generating some 45.8pts profit, but those figures are obviously skewed by On The Move's 25/1 win LTO. However, with those runners below 10/1, he has won three from eight for almost 21pts.

I'll be having a small flutter on Anthony's other handicappers here today, of course, but the official play is a 1pt win bet on On The Move at 7/2 BOG. I've gone with BetVictor for this one, but she's the same price at Bet365, but you could (and should!) always...

...click here for the latest betting on the 5.25 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 22nd April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd April 2014

Jockey Mark Quinlan retired from racing after the meeting at Towcester two months ago, but he returned to action with a bang yesterday as he steered our selection Roc de Guye home to win cosily by six lengths.

He kept the horse handy throughout, until hitting the front going over the last fence before pulling away on the run-in. It was a great return to action for mark and it completed our four-timer, with the added bonus of a drift out to 100/30 from our advised 5/2 BOG.

I've found Tuesday pretty difficult and I've ended up with a judgment call between two runners with the same stats behind them, but the race I've eventually settled on is the...

5.20 Wetherby:

And Warren Greatrex's 4yr old debutant runner One Track Mind, who can currently be backed at a generally available 11/4 BOG in the first division of the bumper today.

1. In the period from 2010 to 2014, Warren's record in bumpers is excellent as figures of 27 winners from 124 runners will testify. This 21.8% strike rate at all odds has so far generated 85.3pts profits from level stakes, a return of 68.8% on your money.

If we were to do our usual 6/1 odds cap, the figures then become 18 winners from 59, a very healthy 30.5% SR for 28.6pts profit, with this year's figures being excellent at 6/10 for 15.7pts.

The yard is in great form with seven wins and five placers from eighteen runners in the last fortnight (5 wins, 3 places from 12 in the last seven days) and over the last month, his horses have won six of nine bumpers.

2. Mr Greatrex also has an excellent record of getting his horses to win at the first time of asking, especially his 4 and 5 yr olds. Over the last four years, that record stands at 15 winners from 52 debutants (28.8% SR) for 58.5pts profit (+112.5% ROI) and in bumpers those stats are improved to 15/42 (35.7% SR) for 68.5pts (+163% ROI)

With a 6/1 odds cap imposed again, these debutants are 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 20.5pts (+76% ROI) with bumpers showing a 50% strike rate (11/22) and a 116% return on stakes via 25.5pts profit.

Warren has two such debutants today in the shape of our selection One Track Mind and also Ma De Fou who is a 5/2 shot in the 5.50 race. Both of them are aged just 4yrs old and as such they both fit the above stats.

3. In fact, I should add that the yard's 4 yr old debutants do better than the 5yr olds, but the sample size becomes considerably smaller, but for the record, here are the numbers...

On debut, all odds and races: 10/25 (40% SR) for 45.5pts (+182% ROI)
On debut in a bumper, all odds: 10/22 (45.5% SR) for 48.5pts (+220.5% ROI)
On debut, all races but 6/1 max SP: 7/14 (50% SR) for 13pts (+92.9% ROI)
On debut, bumpers and 6/1 cap: 7/13 (53.8% SR) for 14pts (+107.7% ROI)

Of his two runners today, I think Ma De Fou has more on his plate today, up against a McCoy-piloted LTO winner and although our selection One Track Mind is also up against a winner from last time out, I think this race is the weaker one and his main rival might have more of a struggle to carry on a penalty on faster ground than his victory.

I'll be backing both Greatrex runners today, but the official line is a 1pt win bet on One Track Mind at 11/4 BOG with Hills. Other bookies are, of course, available and you can see their prices when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 5.20 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 21st April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st April 2014

Baileys Concerto was a pretty comfortable winner on Saturday to help us to a hat-trick of wins to close out the week before Easter. Our 5/2 BOG was quickly eroded by 10% down to 9/4 BOG, just a few minutes after I'd published the piece,but that still proved a decent price after he was returned at 7/4.

He tracked the leaders patiently whilst travelling best of the four runners, before taking the lead over the last fence. No stick or driving finish was required as he just eased himself into a six lengths lead on the run-in to maintain his trainer's excellent record in NH handicaps.

Easter Monday is tricky, due to the sheer number of runners/races, but I think we might have something in the...

2.55 Market Rasen:

As with Saturday, just four runners here, but a similarly priced 5/2 BOG shot looks to represent value, as I'm backing James Evans' 9 yr old chaser Roc de Guye, who comes here looking to extend a decent run of form (3111421 in the last 10 months!) and a rise in the weights will hopefully be partially negated by the presence of jockey Mark Quinlan and his 3lb claim.

1. Also, like Saturday, James Evans is another one of those trainers who consistently produces profits in NH handicap races and since 2010 he has a 19.7% strike rate in these contests.

That strike rate comes via a 26/132 record, which in turn has generated 85.6pts (+64.8% ROI) profits at level stakes and of which his chasers are 18/81 (22.22% SR) for 43.4pts (+53.6% ROI).

If we filter out some of the longer priced runners and impose an 8/1 odds cap, his handicappers as a whole have won 19 of 91 (20.9%) contests for profits of 31.6pts, a return of 34.7% of stakes, but at these lower odds, his chasers have excelled with 16 winners from 59. This 27.1% strike rate has been responsible for 43pts profit, or 72.9% of stakes.

2. Mr Evans doesn't use claiming jockeys very often, but seems to do pretty well with them on the few occasions that he calls upon them. In the last two years, the record is 4/21 for 12.32pts with runners below 12/1.

3. Roc de Guye is a useful performer at this level and is one to back when running on the back of a decent run last time out. Backing him after a top 3 finish last time out would have netted you 5 winners from 16 and 24.2pts profits from level stakes and all those five wins came from the thirteen races where that top three finish was preceded by a top five finish. He has finished 421 in his last three outings, so this stat was proved right last time out too!

He's clearly no mug and at 5/2 BOG, there seems to be some value in the selection. I know he's up in the weights, but so are his rivals. To that end, I'm backing Roc de Guye at 5/2 BOG with BetVictor, but the price is widely available. The easiest way to see what your preferred bookie is offering is to simply...

...click here for the latest betting on the 2.55 Market Rasen

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.