Tag Archives: Free Racing Tips

Stat of the Day Update, 13th to 19th May

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 13/05/13 to 19/05/13

It was a hit or miss week last week for SotD, as the selections either won (which 3 did) or they failed to make even the places (as the other 4 did). Fortunately, the winners were priced at 4/1 twice and 7/2, ensuring that we more than doubled our money for the week and May as a whole is looking quite respectable so far.

Selections & Results: 13/05/13 to 19/05/13

13/05: 4.00 Wolverhampton: Moma Lee (advised 4/1 BOG) : won at 2/1
14/05: 5.00 Sedgefield: The Village (advised at 5/2BOG) : unplaced at 7/4
15/05: 4.50 Fontwell: Samarkand (advised 7/2 BOG) : unplaced at 3/1
16/05: 4.40 Perth: Al Qeddaaf (advised 3/1 BOG) : unplaced at 4/1
17/05: 4.50 Newbury: Semeen (advised 3/1 BOG) : won at 7/2
18/05: 8.20 Uttoxeter: Ballinahow Star (advised 4/1 BOG) : won at 11/4
19/05: 3.10 Ripon: Hoodna (advised 5/1 BOG) : unplaced at 7/2

13/05 to 19/05:
3 winning bets from 7
P/L: +7.50pts

May:
6 winners from 19 = 31.58% S.R
P/L: +8.33pts
POI = +43.84%

Overall:
150 winners from 510 = 29.41% S.R
P/L: +94.61pts
POI: +18.55%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +106.61pts from a 511pt outlay = +20.86% POI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day Update, 6th to 12th May

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 06/05/13 to 12/05/13

Other than picking an actual winner, last week had pretty much everything. We'd a couple of runners-up who could and should have won: the same could be said for Saturday's 3rd placed horse. We'd a couple that ran absolutely terribly too. We'd also highlighted a stat one day which didn't yield a winner for SotD, but found a success elsewhere that day! All of which, however, is largely irrelevant, since the bottom line shows a 100% loss of 7pts for the week.

Selections & Results: 06/05/13 to 12/05/13

06/05: 2.05 Warwick: Duke of Destiny (advised 11/2 BOG) : 4th at 6/1
07/05: 6.55 Exeter: Sew On Target (advised at 3/1 BOG) :2nd at 11/8
08/05: 2.55 Southwell: Plus Fours (advised 7/2 BOG) : unplaced at 3/1
09/05: 3.50 Chester: JiveĀ  (advised 4/1 BOG) : 5th at 5/1
10/05: 8.40 Downpatrick: Gaius Marius (advised 4/1 BOG) : 2nd at 7/2
11/05: 2.15 Nottingham: The Dark Wizard (advised 3/1 BOG) : 3rd at 100/30
12/05: 2.40 Worcester: Handsome Buddy (advised 100/30 BOG) : unplaced at 9/2

06/05 to 12/05:
0 winning bets from 7
P/L: -7.00pts

May:
3 winners from 12 = 25.00% S.R
P/L: +0.83pts
POI = +6.92%

Overall:
147 winners from 503 = 29.22% S.R
P/L: +87.11pts
POI: +17.32%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +99.11pts from a 504pt outlay = +19.66% POI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day Update 29th April to 5th May

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 29/04/13 to 05/05/13

Our new win only approach on horses priced around 6/1 or under paid almost instant dividends for us this week. Two further failure ended April pretty much as it had been all month, resulting in a final monthly loss of almost 7.5pts.

However, three wins in four days to end the week have already more than wiped out April's deficit and whilst we don't like losing months, the overall aim is a long-term strategy. The horse that lost in that 4-day spell was vindicated in the selection process by the fact that the alternate qualifier was a 12/1 winner and I just picked the wrong one of the two!

Selections & Results: 29/04/13 to 05/05/13

29/04: 2.30 Towcester: Thunder Sheik (advised 7/2 BOG) : PU at 11/2
30/04: 3.10 Yarmouth: George Cinq (advised at 3/1 BOG) : unplaced at 3/1
01/05: 5.30 Southwell: Brass Monkey (advised 7/2 BOG) : unplaced at 9/4
02/05: 5.05 Beverley: Chepstow: Hedge End (advised 3/1 BOG) : won at 7/2
03/05: 2.00 Musselburgh: Antonio Gramsci (advised 100/30 BOG) : won at 3/1
04/05: 2.20 Goodwood: Reckoning (advised 7/2 BOG) : unplaced at 9/4
05/05: 5.35 Newmarket: Soviet Rock (advised 3/1 BOG) : won at 15/8

29/04 to 05/05:
3 winning bets from 7
P/L: +5.83pts

April:
7 winners from 30 = 23.33% S.R
P/L: -7.47pts
POI = -24.9%

May:
3 winners from 5 = 60.00% S.R
P/L: +7.83pts
POI = +156.60%

Overall:
147 winners from 496 = 29.64% S.R
P/L: +94.11pts
POI: +18.97%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +106.11pts from a 497pt outlay = +21.35% POI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day, 2nd May 2013

Stat of the Day : 2/5/13

Stat of the Day : 2/5/13

Stat of the Day, 2nd May 2013

A neither here nor there run from Brass Monkey yesterday, as he neither went badly, nor did he go well. It was just nondescript, I suppose. He was held up, the pushed along for a while and then got outpaced and stayed one-paced to a 5th place finish. It goes down on our record as a -1 and we move on to Thursday.

A change of tack today, as we head west to Wales for another tea time encounter. This one is a Class 5 Maiden over 5 furlongs, where the going is expected to be good for the nine runners aiming to break their duck in the...

5.05 Chepstow:

It's all about Richard Hannon today and his placement of horses in selected races. It's already a well-known fact that his 2 yr olds tend to fly at this time of year, winning around 24% of their races in April & May and whilst that alone isn't enough for me, it's a good starting point.

Now, Chepstow isn't a place that Mr Hannon sends too many runners to, but his record of 15 winners from 54 in non-handicap races here is something to take note of and raises genuine interest whenever he's represented in such a race here. And that 27.8% strike rate is further enhanced to 30% when we look at his 2 yr olds in isolation, courtesy of 12 wins from 40 (5 of the last 15 have won too).

At this point, I felt that his record with 2 yr olds at this time of year allied to the record of his horses (especially 2yr olds) here at Chepstow was enough for me to base today selection on, but then I remember something Matt (the boss!) told me several months ago, when he mentioned that the trainer was particularly adept at getting horses to win second time out.

So, I dug through some stats last night and I discovered that since 2008, Mr Hannon's 2yr olds have won 21.67% of their second races and that figure is particularly high here at Chepstow with 7 winners from just 15: a strike rate of 46.67% yielding 11pts level stakes profit, a return of 76.9% over stakes.

All of which brings us to Hedge End, a filly who wasn't disgraced when finishing 6th of 8 on debut in early April on the A/W at Kempton and much more is expected of this one. She fits all the above requirements re: age, time of year, number of runs, type of race, track and as Mr Hannon's only runner here today, I'd hope she was coming here to more than cover the petrol money.

If things go to plan, I expect to see Hedge End in the winners' enclosure before 5.15 this evening, so I'll be putting my money on her at 3/1 (BOG, of course) with Bet365, but to see what your bookie is offering...

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.05 Chepstow.

Stat of the Day, 1st May 2013

Stat of the Day : 1/5/13

Stat of the Day : 1/5/13

Stat of the Day, 1st May 2013

No joy for the Turner/Bell combination yesterday as both Sunningdale Rose (3rd of 5) and our selection George Cinq were well beaten. Hayley seemed like she was producing George Cinq at just the right time. The 3/1 shot had been kept covered up and when she pulled him out two furlongs from home, I was just waiting for the burst to the line. Hayley pressed the button and there was little response to be honest and a 2.75 length defeat was the outcome, back in 4th place.

We're off to Nottinghamshire today for a Class 5 Handicap Hurdle over two miles, four and a half furlongs, where the going is expected to be good for the ten runners contesting the...

5.30 Southwell:

Today we turn to another familiar SotD name, Charlie Longsdon, as I noticed last night that he has a very good record in recent years with horses making their first run for his yard. Sometimes, a horse needs a change of scenery / tactics to get the best out of them and certain trainers are more adept than others at resurrecting a horse's form.

Mr Longsdon is one such trainer, having secured 32 winners from 140 yard debutants since the start of 2011. This 22.9% strike rate over the last 28 months has yielded a level stakes profit of 149.21pts, a return on investment of over 106.5%: a nice chunk of change indeed.

Our selection today, Brass Monkey, is a lightly-raced 6 yr old gelding whose previous form suggests that he'll enjoy the good ground underfoot, as he has really struggled in softer conditions. He won a bumper here at Southwell for Sarah Humphrey almost a year ago (15th May 2012) on his second attempt, but has struggled over hurdles in three races since then in conditions described as soft (twice) and heavy, where he clearly didn't get the ground, but did complete the races to gain today's handicap mark of 88.

Today is Brass Monkey's handicap debut and he'll also be assisted by the booking of the best jockey to have ridden him so far (Richard Johnson), this addition plus the switch to the new yard and their record with debutants allied to the horse's previous course victory make me confident of a good show today and I'm happy to place my shilling on Brass Monkey at 7/2 BOG.

That price is quite wildly available, so for your choice of bookmaker, simply...

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.30 Southwell.

Stat of the Day, 30th April 2013

Stat of the Day : 30th April

Stat of the Day : 30th April

Stat of the Day, 30th April 2013

A poor run from Thunder Sheik yesterday, as he was eventually pulled up before the penultimate fence. He'd started well enough and led in the opening stages of the contest, but soon slipped back through the field before having his run curtailed prematurely. The market had it spot on as he drifted from our advised 7/2 out to an SP of 11/2.

We're back on the flat today and we're off to the Norfolk seaside for a 7-runner, Class 4 handicap over a mile. The going is expected to be good to firm for the...

3.10 Yarmouth:

Stat of the Day exists because racing has a habit of repeating itself year after year and today's stat is no exception. Today is the last day of April: a notoriously difficult time of year to find winners, both as a punter and also as a "racing connection" ie it's tough for trainers and jockeys too.

April however represents a very good time of year for the jockey / trainer partnership of Hayley Turner and Michael Bell, who have an impressive record when teaming up together.

Since the start of April 2010, Ms Turner has ridden for Mr Bell some 47 times in the month of April, winning a dozen of those races (25.5% of the time) and producing level stakes profits of 40.25pts = an ROI of some 85.6%.

These figures are impressive enough, but if we consider just handicap contests like today's race, that record is improved upon to 8 wins from 22 (36.4%) for 46.5pts (+211.4%) profit, quite astounding. This isn't skewed by one freakish month: in years 2010, 2011 and so far this year the strike rate has been 33% in each of those years, whilst 2012 saw a 43% winning ratio, so it's a consistent stat at least.

There's just one horse that fits the criteria today: George Cinq, who makes only his fourth start today. He was 6th on debut in a Newmarket maiden, before breaking his duck on the A/W track at Kempton over 7f in his second contest. He continued his progression when stepping up top Class 2 company last time out for his final Nursery outing also over 7f at Kempton. He encountered plenty of trouble in running that day, but stayed on really well in the closing stages to chase home the highly regarded Godolphin horse Tamarkuz.

Any repeat of that type of form and/or a continuance of his progress shown last term should be enough to take this contest today and I'd expect this one to be quite popular today and he'll probably end up in the 9/4 to 5/2 region. I'd have thought.

Therefore, I was quite pleased to get a 1pt bet on George Cinq at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor, but as we know prices do fluctuate, so please...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.10 Yarmouth.

PS Sunningdale Rose will also be ridden by Hayley Turner for Michael Bell in the 2.10 race, but that's not a handicap event.

Stat of the Day Update 22nd to 28th April 2013

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 22/04/13 to 28/04/13

Last week's selections performed pretty well in the main, despite the bottom line showing a small 10% loss of stakes. We had a nice 13/2 winner on Tuesday and three horses in the frame and when coupled with a faller that looked well set on Sunday, the feeling is that we're getting closer to hitting a run of form.

However, we are going to adopt a slight change in strategy. Tuesday's winner at 13/2 yielded a 3.9pt profit on the day, as we'd gone E/W and the general consensus here is that we should really be focusing on the win only bets from now on, in a bid to maximise the profits available to us on horses we fancy. Chill Factor went off at 9/2 and if truth be told, I wouldn't have advised an E/W bet at that price, so I effectively gave away 0.7pts of profit, a figure equivalent to the week's losses!

We appreciate that we'll hit the bar more often with this approach, but the long-term profitability should benefit from the new approach. We will, still of course, be offering you a pair of E/W shots in the Daily Dabble.

Selections & Results: 22/04/13 to 28/04/13

22/04: 6.30 Gladiatrix (advised 6/1 E/W BOG) : unplaced at 7/1
23/04: 4.45 Ffos Las: Chill Factor (advised at 13/2 E/W BOG) : won at 9/2 (+3.90pts)
24/04: 2.35 Catterick: Bernardino (advised 6/1 E/W BOG) : unplaced at 7/1
25/04: 3.05 Beverley: Asgardella (advised 4/1 BOG) : 2nd at 2/1
26/04: 1.30 Doncaster: It's My Time (advised 5/1 E/W BOG) : 2nd at 7/1 (+0.38pts)
27/04: 2.30 Market Rasen: Cool Baranca (advised 10/3 BOG) : 3rd at 11/4
28/04: 3.35 Wetherby: Blazing Bull (advised 5/2 BOG) : fell at 9/4

22/04 to 28/04:
2 winning bets from 7
P/L: -0.72pts

April:
7 winners from 28 = 25.00% S.R
P/L: -5.47pts
POI = -19.54%

Overall:
144 winners from 489 = 29.45% S.R
P/L: +88.28pts
POI: +18.05%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +100.28pts from a 490pt outlay = +20.47% POI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day, 29th April 2013

Stat of the Day : 29th April

Stat of the Day : 29th April

Stat of the Day, 29th April 2013

A sad day for SotD yesterday as Blazing Bull was fatally injured in a fall three from home, when looking like he had every chance of winning. When such things happen, the final result of the race is an irrelevance and my thoughts turn to the horse's connections.

Today is the start of a new week and we're off chasing in Northamptonshire, where the going is good for the twelve runners tackling 2 miles and half a furlong in the...

2.30 Towcester:

Fergal O'Brien has a good record here at Towcester with a 21% strike rate from all his runners. However, when we consider his more fancied selections ie those running at 5/1 or shorter: five of the last eight have won in a record reading 13511511 with two of those wins coming from three chase events.

Thunder Sheik represents Mr O'Brien today and looks set to build on a promising introductions to fences at Uttoxeter last time out. He jumped well enough there and this race looks easier on paper at least!

He wears blinkers for the first time today, but I don't see that as a negative, as 38% of the trainer's horses win when wearing blinkers for the first time (3 wins and a place from 8 races for a profit of 24pts) including his last Towcester runner Doubletoilntrouble who won a chase here just 4 weeks ago at 2/1.

Thunder Sheik ticks all the above boxes today and looks a decent enough price at 7/2 BOG with several firms. I'm using BetVictor today, but you can see what your preferred bookie is offering if you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.30 Towcester.

Stat of the Day, 28th April 2013

Stat of the Day : 28th April

Stat of the Day : 28th April

Stat of the Day, 28th April 2013

Yesterday was another "close, but not close enough" days, as we once again made the frame without adding any money to the pot. We do seem to be banging on the door quite a bit at present: hopefully we'll burst it open today.

We're heading back up to Yorkshire today for a 3m 1f, Class3 handicap chase and the ground is set to be Good for the nine runners contesting the...

3.35 Wetherby:

There's not a lot going on today, but I've one that's becoming a course specialist here at Wetherby and comes into today's race in excellent form.

Blazing Bull has won three times from ten starts to date, but more relevant is the fact that those three victories have come in each of his last three outings. The last two of those wins have been here at Wetherby (the second over today's trip) whilst his only other run here resulted in him finishing 3rd on Boxing Day in the mud.

This horse seems to have improved for each of his three wins and despite a 9lbs rise up the weights of late, this shouldn't be enough to stop this lightly raced 9 yr old, plus the availability of a 7lb claim from jockey John Dawson will help.

Blazing Bull is sure to attract some support, so I'm taking the 5/2 of offer from William Hill, but please do take the opportunity to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.35 Wetherby.

Stat of the Day, 27th April 2013

Stat of the Day: 27/04/13

Stat of the Day: 27/04/13

Stat of the Day, 27th April 2013

It was the bridesmaid role for us again yesterday, It's My Time ran an excellent race, but just managed to find one other rival too good for her. Thankfully we'd gone E/W and the 7/1 Sp ensured that we at least made 38% profit on our total 1pt stake. Better than a poke in the eye, I say.

A change of scenery today as we head South to Lincolnshire for a Class 4 Mares' Handicap Hurdle over 2m 1f, better know as the...

2.30 Market Rasen:

I was talking to an old friend a few weeks back about racing and stats etc and he said that he looks for Course and Distance winners running after a win last time out, so when I got back from my holiday I delved into the databases to have a look.

What I saw was that horses in this category are successful in 22% of their races here at Market Rasen and last season saw three winners from eleven such qualifiers (27.3%) returning level stakes profits of 7.25pts (65.9% ROI) and there are actually three such horses running today: Keeverfield (3.05 race) and Be My Deputy (in the 3.40) both look to have good chances today, but their odds are likely to be a bit prohibitive for us at SotD, leaving us with the one that interests me the most: Cool Baranca.

Much of the premise around SotD is that trainers and horses are creatures of habit and this also applies in bringing us to select Cool Baranca today. She won this race last year, so she's got that C&D win under her belt and that victory came off the back off a win at Ayr. She comes here today to attempt to win this race again, also off the back of a victory in that corresponding race at Ayr.

When she took this race last year, she was running off a mark some 10lbs higher than today and despite a 4lb hike in the weights for that last win, she looks more than fairly well treated stepping back down to Class 4 racing after her recent Class 3 victory.

Bearing in mind that she took this race at an SP of 4/6 last year, we're not getting rich today and I'd expect her to be the justified favourite in this renewal. But having expected to see her at around 5/2 this morning, I was fairly happy to see BetVictor offering 10/3, so the play is a 1pt win bet onĀ Cool Baranca at 10/3 (BOG, of course!) with BetVictor. There were, however, only three firms with a price on the board at 8.00am, so once the market forms fully, please...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.30 Market Rasen