Tag Archives: Franny Norton

Stat of the Day, 19th April 2019

Thursday's pick was...

4.35 Ripon : Alkaamel @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Tracked leaders, pushed along to chase winner over 1f out, stayed on towards finish, but couldn't reel in the winner who'd been given far too soft and far too big a lead early on.)

Good Friday's pick runs in the...

4.35 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bayshore Freeway @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3½f on Good to Firm ground worth £5322 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 4yr old filly who has never finished outside the first home in nine starts, winning three times and placing on four other occasions, including...

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 6 over 1m3.5f - 1m4f
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 at 5/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 under today's jockey Franny Norton
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 on Good to Firm ground
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 at 1m3.5f
  • 1 win from 2 at Class 4
  • 1 from 1 here at Bath
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance

She is trained by Mark Johnston, about whom the market tends to be right here at this venue, as since 2012 his runners sent off at 5/1 and shorter are 23/73 (31.5% SR) for 6.74pts (+9.24% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 20/55 (36.4%) for 14.02pts (+25.5%) on ground officially described using the word firm
  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 21pts (+63.7%) from his female runners
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 11.3pts (+35.3%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 3.47pts (+24.8%) from those beaten by 1-3 lengths LTO
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 2.36pts (+29.5%) in April

...whilst females on Good to Firm / Firm are 13/26 (50% SR) for 19.04pts (+73.2% ROI), including 6 from 8 (75%) for 8.61pts (+107.6%) last season...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Bayshore Freeway @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.35pm on Thursday (12.35pm here), but those of you with an unrestricted Bet365 account can get an extra quarter point right now. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 23rd March 2019

Friday's pick was...

6.00 Newcastle : Porrima @ 17/2 BOG 6th at 15/2 (Fly leapt at start again, held up in last pair, good headway near side of group over 1f out, no impression final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Executive Force 11/4 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5yr old gelding has been on an amazing run of form this year, winning five of six and finishing as a runner-up in the race he lost! Last seen 7 days ago at Wolverhampton, when winning yet again.

He is now 5 from 14 on the All-Weather and this includes of relevance today...

  • 5/10 in cheekpieces
  • 3/9 going left handed
  • 5/8 in Feb/March
  • 3/8 over 1m/1m0.5f
  • 4/7 under jockey Franny Norton
  • 5/6 this year
  • and 2/2 within a week of his last run

Afore-mentioned jockey Franny Norton has 7 winners from 27 in the last 30 days, including 4 from 12 (33.3% SR) in the past fortnight, whilst since 2015 in A/W handicaps over 5f to 1m2f here at Lingfield, he has 14 winners from 66 (21.2% SR) for 95.9pts (+145.3% ROI).

Trainer Michael Wigham has also been amongst the winners of late with a 9 from 30 (30% SR) record over the last 60 days, including 3 from 6 in the past fortnight, whilst since 2013 when using the services of Franny Norton, his horses are 17 from 84 (20.2% SR) for 21pts (+25% ROI), including...

  • 16/76 (21.1%) for 24.9pts (+32.7%) in handicaps
  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 21.8pts (+80.7%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 20.7pts (+98.7%) from 5 yr olds
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 9.14pts (+53.8%) with horses running within 10 days of their last outing
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 1.5pts (+9.3%) in March
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 3.41pts (+31%) from LTO winners...

...whilst more generally over the last two years...

  • Martin's runners turned out with 10 days of their last run are 16/42 (38.1% SR) for 35.44pts (84.4% ROI)
  • his LTO winners are 13/38 (34.2%) for 16.8pts (+44.3%)
  • whilst his LTO winners turned back out within 10 days are 9/14 (64.3%) for 20.2pts (+144.4%), of which Franny Norton has 4 winners from 4 for 5.25pts profit...

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Executive Force 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th January 2019

Friday's Pick was...

7.45 Newcastle : Hanakatoba @ 5/1 BOG N/R (Withdrawn at 7:56am Fri 25 Jan  Reason: Vets Cert - Temperature)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Aguerooo @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 6on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding who was a winner last time out when partnered by today's jockey for the first time. That was just 7 days ago over this course and distance in a Class 5 contest and although our boy is now rated 3lbs higher, he does take a drop in class today.

He has won 7 of 34 starts on the A/W so far and this decent 20.6% strike rate includes of relevance today...

  • 6/24 in cheekpieces
  • 5/24 over 6f
  • 6/20 on Polytrack
  • 4/15 off a mark of 61-70
  • 6/12 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 4/10 here at Lingfield
  • 3/10 within a week of his last run
  • 3/6 over course and distance
  • and 1/1 with Franny Norton in the saddle

His trainer, Charlie Wallis is 14 from 44 (31.8% SR) for 43.9pts (+99.7% ROI) with his 6f A/W sprinters to date, from which...

  • 12/37 (32.4%) for 37.9pts (+102.4%) on polytrack
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 34.06pts (+100.2%) from 4-6 yr olds
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 26.1pts (+100.3%) at Class 6
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 27.41pts (+144.3%) in December/January
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 11.8pts (+98.3%) from LTO winners
  • 3/10 (30%) for 12.02pts (+120.2%) over this track and trip

And, since the start of 2017, Charlie's runners reappearing just 4-10 days after their last run are 18/83 (21.7% SR) for 42pts (+50.6%), including...

  • handicappers at 18/78 (23.1%) for 47pts (+60.3%)
  • on the A/W : 16/57 (28.1%) for 42pts (+73.6%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 8/1 : 16/52 (30.8%) for 44.9pts (+86.3%)
  • at Class 6 : 12/43 (27.9%) for 30.1pts (+69.9%)
  • on Polytrack : 11/43 (25.6%) for 27.7pts (+64.3%)
  • over 6f : 8/33 (24.2%) for 29.5pts (+89.5%)
  • those dropping down a class : 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.71pts (+64.7%)
  • at Lingfield : 3/13 (23.1%) for 11.15pts (+85.6%)
  • and LTO winners are 6/12 (50%) for 21.82pts (+181.8%)

...and from the above... A/W handicappers at 6/4 to 8/1 are 15/35 (42.9% SR) for 54pts (+154.3%) including 11 from 24 (45.8%) for 41.23pts (+171.8%) at Class 6...

 ..giving us a 1pt win bet on Aguerooo @ 4/1 BOG as was available from SkyBet, Hills, SportPesa & SportNation at 5.20pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th November 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

12.40 Southwell : Fieldsman @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, ridden and every chance from over 1f out, kept on and held towards finish, beaten by a neck) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Summer Icon @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 6-runner, Class 2 Fillies Conditions Stakes for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £12291 to the winner... 

Why?

I'm going to keep this relatively (by my standards anyway) short and hopefully very sweet today with a 5 yr old mare who has knocked on the door of late finishing third in each of her last three starts. In her defence, I should add that they were all at Listed Class and today she takes both a drop in class and trip back to her preferred 7f.

All 3 career wins to date are over 7 furlongs within 12-24 days of her last outing (15 days this time) and she has 1 win and 2 places from 3 Class 2 efforts whilst she also has a win and a place from 3 over this very course and distance.

Franny Norton rides her for the first time today, but he's having a good year on Mick Channon's horses when called upon. The partnership is 10/46 (21.7% SR) for 47.1pts (+102.4% ROI) this year, including of relevance today...

  • 8 from 35 (22.9%) for 15.7pts (+44.9%) when sent off at 5/4 to 10/1
  • 7 from 29 (24.1%) for 34.7pts (+119.7%) on horses rested for 11-45 days
  • 7 from 23 (30.4%) for 52.5pts (+228.4%) over trips of 5.5 to 8.5 furlongs
  • 7 from 19 (36.8%) for 44.3pts (+233.1%) on female horses
  • 6 from 16 (37.5%) for 41.6pts (+259.9%) in non-handicap races
  • 5 from 9 (55.6%) for 31.8pts (+353.6%) on horses placed 3rd LTO
  • 2 from 5 (40%) for 8.45pts (+169%) on the A/W
  • and 1 from 2 950%) for 2.09pts (+104.5%) here at Wolverhampton...

...and from the above...Norton + Channon + 2018 + females + 5/4 to 10/1 + 5.5 to 8.5 furlongs + 11-45 dslr = 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 19.42pts (+388.4% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Summer Icon @ 11/4 BOG , a price offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th June 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

7.50 Lingfield : Fanfair @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (In rear, headway 2f out, not clear run [poorly positioned IMO] and switched right over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, ridden and ran on, couldn't reach winner, beaten by a head)

We continue with Wednesday's...

3.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Danzay @ 3/1 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 5 handicap for 3yo over 1m on polytrack worth £4399 to the winner...

Why?

here we have a 3 yr old gelding who was a winner over 1m2f at Goodwood just five days ago when making all. The truth however is that he was hanging on for the last 2f and the line couldn't come quick enough for him. The good news here is that (a) a drop back to a mile should therefore help him see this one out better, (b) he's unpenalised for that win, as it was an apprentice handicap and (b) the wily Franny Norton now takes over in the saddle : an excellent judge of race pace.

And although his trainer Mark Johnston has a 15.8% strike rate at this venue (47/298), he's not profitable to follow blindly, however...

...if you backed all his 2 to 4 yr olds here sent off at 7/2 & shorter, you'd have 33 winners from 89 (37.1% SR) and 15.2pts (+17.1% ROI) profit, from which...

  • at trips of 7 to 10 furlongs : 21/52 (40.4%) for 15.2pts (+29.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 13/30 (43.3%) for 11.2pts (+37.2%)
  • and at Class 5 over trips of 7 to 10 furlongs : 11/19 (57.9%) for 15.9pts (+83.8%)

More generally, since the start of 2013 at trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs on UK polytracks, horses who won or were beaten by less than lengths LTO and were turned back out just 2 to 5 days later, went on to win 141 of 562 (25.1% SR) quick follow-ups recording profits of 172.9pts at a healthy ROI of 30.8%. These are not trainer specific, just blindly backing quick returners who weren't well beaten LTO.

And finally, seeing as this one did win so recently, it's worth noting that Mark Johnston's Class 5 handicappers who won last time out are 35/95 (36.8% SR) for 26.3pts (+27.7% ROI) profit and these include of relevance today...

  • 27 winners from 69 (39.1%) for 23.8pts (+34.5%) for those last seen 4-25 days earlier
  • 31 from 64 (48.4%) for 21.8pts (+34%0 at odds of 9/2 and shorter
  • 24 from 55 (43.6%) for 32.7pts (+59.4%) from those running at the same class as LTO
  • 17 from 35 (48.6%) for 23.4pts (+66.8%) in the June-August quarter
  • and 9 from 24 (37.5%) for 3.93pts (+16.4%) on polytrack

...and derived from the above, you could back those priced at 6/1 and shorter at the same class as an LTO win 4-25 days earlier for 20 winners from 38 (52.6% SR) and 23,2pts profit at an ROI of 60.9%...

...which would prompt...a 1pt win bet on Danzay @ 3/1 BOGGENERALLY. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.25 Lingfield : Mamselle @ 7/2 BOG WON at 10/3 Tracked leaders, not much room 3f out, led over 2f out, clear inside final furlong, stayed on well to win by 4.5 lengths.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.35 Epsom...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Star of Lombardy @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

A fairly short and straightforward explanation for this one.

Epsom is quirky at best and although this is no Derby or Oaks, previous course experience is very handy to have here and our runner is one just two in the contest to have been here before and ours is the only course winner on display.

That win came over course and distance last time out, a fortnight ago and her career stats suggest she'll feel right at home again today, as she's currently...

  • 3 from 9 in this grade
  • 3 from 8 running 5 to 15 days after her last run
  • 3 from 7 in fields of 5 to 7 runners
  • 3 from 6 at odds of 5/2 to 4/1
  • and 2 from 6 under Franny Norton who also rode her here last time out.

Added to the above, we have a small dataset regarding the trainer/jockey/track combination as Mark Johnston's handicappers priced at 10/1 and shorter here at Epsom are 3 from 8 (37.5% SR) for 9.95pts (+124.4% ROI) profit when riden by Franny Norton, whose own record here at Epsom with horses priced at 12/1 and shorter stands at 4/10 (40%) for 26.17pts (+261.7%) since the start of last season alone.

...and so, it's...a 1pt win bet on Star of Lombardy @ 3/1 BOG which was available in several places at 6.30pm on Wednesday with some 7/2 BOG on offer at Bet365 for those able to do so!. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.35 Epsom...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2016

Tuesday's Result :

2.20 Yarmouth : Theydon Bois @ 9/4 BOG 4th at 15/8 (Led, took keen hold and hung badly right final circuit, ridden and headed over 3f out, virtually unrideable and no danger after)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.45 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The Last Lion at 100/30 BOG

Why?

This 2yr old colt's figures currently read 13221 ahead of this Group 3 contest, with a half length defeat in a Group 2 race and then a win in a Listed contest 26 days ago his last two outings, so he's in good nick.

Franny Norton was on board LTO taking the partnership's record to 2 wins from 3 (131) and that augurs well for today, as does his yard's record here at Goodwood in general.

But I want to focus on trainer Mark Johnston's recent record at this Festival meeting, where since 2008, he has had 27 winners from 234 runners (11.5% SR) producing level stakes profits of 112.4pts at an ROI of 48.1%, from which...

  • male runners are 23/185 (12.4%) for 107.6pts (+58.1%)
  • on good ground : 17/120 (14.2%) for 91.5pts (+76.2%)
  • those last seen 11-28 days ago are 16/117 (13.7%) for 98.3pts (+84%)
  • when he has had 2 runners in the same race : 12/72 (16.7%) for 71pts (+98.6%)
  • LTO winners are 8/58 (13.8%) for 32.8pts (+56.6%)

AND...since 2012, males on good ground 11 to 28 days after their last run are 5/10 (50% SR) for 69.4pts (+694% ROI).

Plus with Goodwood not being the easiest track to ride, we need a jockey well versed in the nuances of this venue, so step forward Franny Norton with his 14 winners from 92 rides (15.2% SR) here since 2011 that have generated level stakes profits of 82.7pts (+89.9% ROI), from which...

  • males are 11/63 (17.5%) for 88.5pts (+140.4%)
  • those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 10/41 (24.4%) for 25.9pts (+63.1%)
  • with males at 8/1 or shorter winning 7 of 29 (24.1%) for 14.7pts (+50.6%)

...which all means, it's a 1pt win bet on The Last Lion at 100/30 BOG from any one of the half dozen firms offering that price at 6.45pm, although to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 19th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th September 2015

Not too long ago, it seemed like I could do wrong and horses that looked beaten were rallying and just getting up late on to win for us.

I did warn (several times!) that such luck won't always be with us and now that I'm scratching about a little bit for form, our runners seem to be contriving to throw races away.

I'm very reluctant to criticise jockeys who do a brilliant job under difficult circumstances, so I'm going to diplomatically suggest that Pat Cosgrave thought he'd done enough on Satellite at Newbury yesterday and that the horse had enough left in case an extra effort was needed.

Unfortunately, neither was the case and hindsight (which is not only wonderful, but always correct!) now suggests Pat should have kicked on once clear and put the race to bed without giving the eventual winner any encouragement or hope of winning.

Bottom line is that we lost one that we should have won and these things happen, our 4/1 advised odds were reduced to 17/5 via a 15p Rule 4 deduction, but we still smashed the 15/8 SP, which is reassuring at least.

I, however, prefer pounds in the bank to a reassuring hug, so let's see if we can at least close the week out with the winner of the...

3.00 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Mark Johnston is the trainer in focus here and of his 13 runners set to race around the country today, just Powderhorn has been sent here to contest a race Mark won last year with Flash Fire and you can get 3/1 BOG about him repeating that success.

Powderhorn comes here off the back of a win on similarly good to soft ground over today's trip at Chester just eight days ago, when he accounted for three previous course and distance winners.

Since 2008, Mark's Catterick runners priced in the 6/4 to 6/1 region, where I do most of my betting nowadays, have won 31 of 127 (24.4% SR) for level stakes profits of 20.4pts at a respectable ROI of 16.1%. With today's runner/race conditions in mind, we can see that of those 127 runners...

  • those running within 6 to 30 days of their last outing are 25/86 (29.1% SR) for 31.7pts (+36.9% ROI)
  • handicappers are 16/74 (21.6% SR) for 15.2pts (+20.6% ROI)
  • those running over the 7f trip are 11/49 (22.5% SR) for 12.6pts (+25.8% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners are 9/40 (22.5% SR) for 6.1pts (+15.1% ROI)

That recent win for Powderhorn last time out was his first effort on Good to Soft ground, but the cut in the turf didn't prevent him from making all to win and with no other confirmed front runners here, he might well attempt to burn his rivals off quite early and if allowed a soft lead, could well be difficult to catch and then pass.

He has won two of his five runs at this trip and has been placed worse than third (33121) and has already won under today's jockey Franny Norton. He has finished 311 in fields of 7 to 11 runners, has a win and a runner-up berth from two runs after less than 10 days rest and has also finished 311 in his three races when asked to go left handed.

He's in good form on a track favoured by his trainer and the signs are that Powderhorn will give us a good run for our money at 3/1 BOG. At midnight, at least seven bookies were offering that price. I chose once again to use Coral for their beaten by a head insurance, but for a full view of the market, please...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 15th September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th September 2014

Lady Bingo ran pretty well on her big step up in trip and was only headed close to the two pole. She didn't have the finishing speed of the two horses to pass her and was a little one-paced on the run in.

She did, however, stick to the task in hand and stayed on to take third place and this represents her best run to date and there's likely to be more to come from her.

Today represents the mid-point of the month, so I'm going to try and close out a very profitable first half with one in today's...

3.40 Musselburgh:

Where on a difficult day for finding relevant stats, I've sided with the 3yr old Right of Appeal at 5/1 BOG with Betfair Sportsbook.

Right of Appeal is trained by Mark Johnston...

Whose record here at Musselburgh since 2008 is decent enough to attract attention with 57 winners from 298 runners at a strike rate of 19.1%, which in turn has generated level stakes profits of 55.4pts (+18.6% ROI).

Mark's three year olds have won 35 of 164 (21.3% SR) in that same time-frame and the corresponding 32.2pts profits are worth almost 20p in the pound to investors.

He's running in an open age handicap...

Which, of course, means he gets a hefty 9lbs allowance under the weight for age scheme. I've mentioned this a few times of late, as its something that crops up quite a bit at this stage of the season, but no other trainer seems to get it as right as Mark Johnston does, especially over the longer trips, where the allowances are greater.

Since 2008, in these open age handicaps over trips of 12 to 16 furlongs, his 3 yr olds have won 69 of 296 attempts (+23.3% SR) with profits accrued of 55.4pts, or 18.6% ROI. Despite this being fairly common knowledge, his runners don't seem to be overbet, as an odds restriction of 2/1 to 8/1 is still very profitable.

In that smaller odds window, Mark had 36 winners from 148 (24.3% SR) for 69.6pts (+47% ROI), so following the money isn't a bad call here.

Our horse was sired by Dubawi...

Whose offspring are generally profitable to follow. His progeny have a combined 2958 runs between them since Curtains was 3rd at Brighton in late April 2009 and the 493 winners gives a healthy strike rate of 16.7% to date with level stakes profits of 533.7pts providing an ROI of 18.1%.

Those figures are excellent over such a large sample size, but we can narrow down to good effect (of course!  😀 )

3 yr olds have a record of 230/1221 (18.8% SR) for 538.7pts (+44.1% ROI),
whilst those competing at 1m4f to 2 miles inclusive have won 102 of 464 (22% SR) races with a 56.2% ROI derived from the returned profits of 260.8pts.

Which brings us to Dubawi 3 yr olds running between 1m4f and 2m, where 41 of 169 (24.3% SR) were victorious, producing 188.6pts profits at an ROI of 111.6%.

Right of Appeal lost his way over the late summer after some good runs earlier in the year, but showed plenty of signs of a return to form over this trip last time out. He attempted to make all but was rather swamped late on, losing 4 places inside the final furlong for a 3-length defeat. The winner of that race stepped up in class and won again next time out and our runner gets to runs off the same mark again today.

In a race littered with claiming jockeys attempting to reduce the weight burden, the 9lb allowance we're getting means that experienced pro Franny Norton can take the ride and his know-how could make all the difference here today.

If he's allowed to dominate and dictate the pace, I feel he could be a tough nut to crack this time around and I'm happy to be backing Right of Appeal at 5/1 BOG with Betfair Sportsbook. Other bookies are, of course, available and those already "open" here are generally offering 4/1 to 9/2, as can be seen when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.40 Musselburgh

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

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Stat of the Day, 4th July 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 4th July 2014

Ferryview Place was, in hindsight, a fantastic E/W bet yesterday at 8/1. Hindsight, however, is a wonderful thing and we'd backed him win only at 4/1.

He ran better than a 4/1 shot and far better than an 8/1 shot, but the eventual winner and 15/8 favourite dictated the race from the front and when Joe Fanning adopts those tactics aboard the super-fit Mark Johnston horses, there's usually only one outcome.

The margin of our creditable defeat was 3.5 lengths and we'll aim for one better in this evening's...

8.30 Beverley

Where track specialist and yesterday's nemesis Mark Johnston is a man to follow.

1. If you'd put a tenner on each of his runners here at Beverley since 2009, you would now be some £1189.40 better off at Betfair SP, my closest approximation to BOG odds. This would represent a 42.3% return on your stake money courtesy of a 77 winners from 281 runners (27.4% SR) record.

In handicap races only, those figures are 53/193 (27.5% SR) for 111.8pts profit (=57.9% ROI) with a record of 8/27 (29.6% SR) at today's Class 6 level.

From the original 193 handicappers here at Beverley, 147 were sent off in the evens to 8/1 odds range with 44 (32.6%) of them going on to win generating 105.6pts (+73.6% ROI) profits in the process. Class 6 races provided 7 winners from just 19 (36.8%) runners for excellent returns of 28.9pts, or 152.1% of stakes.

2. There's also a string set of stats surrounding Mr Johnston's handicappers when ridden by Franny Norton. Since 2011, this combination has had 44 winners from 165 runners in the same odds bracket as above: a 26.7% strike rate producing profits of 40.8pts (+24.7% ROI).

Their record at Beverley in those conditions is 6 winners from 10 for 19.83pts profit, very good indeed.

Now, I'm well aware that Mark Johnston has five runners here tonight spread across four races and that Franny Norton rides in each of those races fort he trainer, so which to choose?

Well, there's one more set of stats leading me to his runner Enquiring, a 3yr old in decent form, running on an open age handicap.

3. A long time ago (or so it seems!), Matt told me to look out for 3 yr olds competing in these open age handicaps, as the sliding weight for age allowance especially in races on 12 furlongs or more gives the 3 yr olds a better chance than they would normally have.

Obviously with any angle like this, some trainers are better than others at exploiting this and one such trainer is Mark Johnston himself.

Over the last 6 seasons, Mark has had 260 runners in these contests at trips of between 1m4f and 2m. 61 of the 260 (23.5% SR) 3 yr olds have gone on to win, recording profits of 92.8pts (35.7% ROI) along the way.

At today's 1m4f trip he has had 32 winners from 133 (24.1% SR) for 59.6pts (+44.8% ROI) and the record in the evens to 8/1 odds range is 28/97 (28.9% SR) for 44.5pts (+45.9% ROI).

From those 97 runners under 8/1 over today's 1m4f trip...
5/11 for 13.7pts here at Beverley,
4/6 for 6.29pts ridden by Franny Norton (1/1 here at Beverley).

I've waited for the market to settle before going to post, as there were doubt about a few runners, but things seem pretty steady now, so the call is a 1pt win bet on Enquiring at 9/2 BOG with Totesport.

Other bookies are, of course, available and you can see their odds when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 8.30 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.