Tag Archives: ffos las racecourse

Stat of the Day, 16th December 2019

Saturday's pick was...

7.20 Wolverhampton : Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on final furlong, beaten by 2 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.30 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Out The Glen @ 10/3

...in an 11-runner (was 12!), Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m4½f on heavy ground worth £2,794 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced 6 yr old gelding got off the mark last time out on handicap debut just over 6 weeks ago and seemed to have plenty in hand despite a stamina test coming off a 162-day lay off and I'm not convinced a 4lb rise in weight would be the reason for a failure to follow up today if he comes here in the same frame of mind and his cause is aided by a drop in class.

Aside from that win LTO, I was also interested in him as his name cropped up quite a few times in my list of daily micro-system qualifiers, but in the interests of brevity, we'll just explore 3 angles today..

1. Trainer Debra Hamer is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 46.62pts (+186.5% ROI) on heavy ground since the start of 2016, including...

  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 48.62pts (+211.4%) with male runners
  • 6/27 (27.3%) for 25.33pts (+93.8%) in handicaps
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 9.28pts (+103.1%) here at Ffos Las
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.65pts (+185%) at Class 5
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.65pts (+220.6%) with Class 5 male handicappers
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.28pts (+161.1%) with male handicappers at Ffos Las
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 12.45pts (+622.5%) with males in Class 5 handicaps here at Ffos Las

2. Since the start of 2015, Debra's LTO winners of handicap hurdle races are 12 from 20 (60% SR) for 65.22pts (+326.1% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle contests, from which...

  • males are 12/19 (63.2%) for 66.22pts (+348.5%)
  • Class 5 runners are 5/8 (62.5%) for 18.17pts (+227.1%)
  • and Class 5 males are 5/7 (71.4%) for 19.17pts (+273.8%)

...and finally for today...

3. Since 2014 in NH handicaps, Debra Hamer's runners with just one earlier run in the previous 90 days are 15 from 72 (20.8% SR) for 47.72pts (+66.3% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 15/68 (22.1%) for 51.72pts (+76.1%) from males
  • 13/42 (31%) for 61.28pts (+145.9%) with 5-8 yr olds
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 49.9pts (+118.8%) at 11-45 days since last run
  • 11/20 (55%) for 33.42pts (+167.4%) at odds of 6/4 to 11/2
  • 9/37 (24.3%) for 28.36pts (+76.7%) at Class 5
  • 9/36 (25%) for 23.8pts (+66.1%) over hurdles
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 32.8pts (+193%) at Ffos Las
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.16pts (+135.1%) from LTO winners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 19.58pts (+195.8%) in December
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 10.72pts (+82.5%) with those dropping down a class
  • 2/5 (40%) for 9.45pts (+189%) on heavy ground
  • 2/4 (50%) for 12.44pts (+311%) with today's jockey, Tom Bellamy

...whilst 5-8 yr old male Class 5 handicap hurdlers sent off shorter then 5/1 within 45 days of their last run are 6/7 (85.7% SR) for 16.64pts (+237.7% ROI) including 3 from 3 for 7.29pts (+243%) from LTO winners...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Out The Glen @ 10/3 as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 12.30 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd August 2019

Thursday's pick was...

1.00 Stratford : Blue N Yellow @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Chased leaders, not fluent 3 out or 2 out, soon weakened)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Royal Residence @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good ground worth £7,246 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old colt won last time out when landing a similar Class 3, 6 furlong handicap when ridden by today's jockey for the first time 24 days ago.

That was Callum's third win in ten rides (30% SR) for trainer James Tate over the last couple of years and anybody backing this partnership would now be 8.74pts (+87.4% ROI) ahead of the layers, including..

  • 3 wins from 4 (75%) for 14.74pts (+368.5%) at odds of 9/4 to 8/1
  • 2 from 5 (40%) for 9.42pts (+188.4%) from male runners
  • and a perfect 2/2 (100%) for 6.65pts (+332.5%) in handicaps.

James Tate has had a pretty decent year so far, clocking up winners at a decent rate : 45/185 (24.3% SR) over the past six months, 17/78 (21.8%) over the past two months and even 4/19 (21.1%) in the past fortnight, whilst his record with LTO winners since the start of 2016 is excellent at 31 from 108 (28.7% SR) for 20.2pts (+18.7% ROI) in handicaps.

Of those 108 LTO winners, I'm only really interested in those that I'd consider "SotD territory" ie those sent off shorter than 6/1 and these are very much worth backing at 30 from 78 (38.5% SR) for 32.1pts (+41.2% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • 24/59 (40.7%) for 34.8pts (+59.1%) at trips shorter than 1m2f
  • 21/50 (42%) for 32.34pts (+64.7%) in fields of 7-12 runners
  • 19/49 (38.8%) for 34.2pts (+69.8%) at three weeks or longer since their LTO win
  • 19/46 (41.35) for 13.8pts (+30%) from male runners
  • 15/37 (40.5%) for 12.2pts (+33%) at the same class as LTO
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 16.7pts (+49.1%) on the Flat
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 8.76pts (+39.8%) this year
  • 7/12 (58.3%) for 17pts (+142%) over 200 miles from home
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 10.7pts (+133.5%) on Good ground
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 3.48pts (+34.8%) at Class 3

...and I know some of you like to see how runners fitting more than one subset of data get on, so if you wanted a composite from the above...those running in fields of 7-12 runners over trips shorter than 1m2f at same class or up one level as LTO after at least 3 weeks rest are 14 from 27 (51.9%) for 34.6pts (+128% ROI) and these include 3/6 (50%) for 11.35pts (+189.2%) so far this year...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Royal Residence @ 3/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Coral at 6.25pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th July 2019

Thursday's pick was...

2.25 Newmarket : Guildsman @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Mid-division, ridden over 1f out, kept on and no impression

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.10 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pink Eyed Pedro @ 7/2

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good To Firm worth £6758 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 8 yr old gelding has 2 wins and a place from his last four outings and was a comfortable 10-lengths winner last time out when scoring over hurdles on Monday.

He now reverts to chasing, but I've no fears about that, as he's already won over fences this year and he actually had 10 wins and 6 places from 20 runs in point to point contests.

Jockey Connor Brace once again takes the ride and claims his usual 5lbs allowance and he comes here in good nick, having won 3 of his 7 outings over the past week and finishing as a runner-up in two of them, whilst trainer David Brace has also fared well, with three winners from four over the past month.

With just four runners over the past month, it's clear that David hasn't got the largest string of horses at his disposal. In fact, since the start of 2018, he has been represented by just eight different runners (all male), but between them they have won 5 of 28 (17.9% SR) races for level stakes profits of 14.34pts (+51.2% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 26.34pts (+164.6%) at odds of 12/1 and shorter
  • 4/21 (19.1%) for 17.39pts (+82.8%) under Connor Brace
  • 4/10 (40%) for 28.39pts (+283.9%) in June/July
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 6.78pts (+96.9%) from 8 yr olds
  • 3/6 (50%) for 7.78pts (+129.7%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 2/10 (20%) for 7.24pts (+72.4%) at Class 4
  • 2/8 (25%) for 9.24pts (+115.5%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 2/2 (100%) for 17.91pts (+895.5%) in July
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 9.94pts (+331.4%) here at Ffos Las...

...and when Connor has ridden one sent off at 12/1 or shorter in June/July : 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 32.39pts (+539.8%) including 2 from 3 on 8 yr olds...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Pink Eyed Pedro @ 7/2 as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th June 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

2.15 Brighton : Shamshon @ 11/2 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Led chasing group in 3rd, closer and hung left over 1f out, kept on in 3rd towards finish, no chance with winner, probably unsuited by the going change from Good To Firm down to Good to Soft!)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gone Platinum @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Good ground worth £6238 to the winner...  

Why?...

Well, I'm going to keep it really simple today, employing the old "horses for courses" adage with a 10 yr old gelding who not only won very comfortably off today's mark at Market Rasen five days ago, but has run consistently well all year and should be suited by the conditions faced today.

Five wins and three runner-up finishes from ten efforts this year has been a superb run of form and this includes 2 wins and 2 places (2121) over hurdles, all here at Ffos Las under today's jockey Lorcan Williams and his suitability for today's task is demonstrated by the fact that his 5+3/10 record this year includes...

  • 5+3/8 after less than 4 weeks rest (inc 2+2/4 over hrds)
  • 4+3/9 under Lorcan Williams (2+2/4 over hrds)
  • 4+2/6 since April (2+1/3 over hrds)
  • 4+2/8 going left handed (2+2/4 over hrds)
  • 4+2/8 as non-fav (2+1/3 over hrds)
  • 3+2/6 on Good ground (1+1/2 over hrds)
  • 3+1/4 over 2m4.5f/2m5f (1+1/2 over hrds)
  • 3/4 in fields of 7-10 runners (1/1 over hrds)
  • 2+2/5 here at Ffos Las (2+2/4 over hrds)
  • 2+1/3 at odds of 4/1 and shorter (1+1/2 over hrds)
  • 2/2 at Class 3 (1/1 over hrds)
  • and 2/2 off a mark (OR) higher than 120 (1/1 over hrds)

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Gone Platinum @ 3/1 BOG from as offered by Bet365, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.50pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th June 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

7.10 Chelmsford : Indeed @ 7/2 BOG WON at 6/1 (Chased leader, led over 1f out, edged left, stayed on well)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Grania O'Malley @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4 Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m on Good To Soft ground worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old mare is one of only two runners in this race to have actually won a race in the past and is the only winner at this 2m trip. She was a decent second last time out (13 days ago at Uttoxeter) with the final 6 lengths margin of defeat only happening in the closing stages as she struggled to see out 2m4f. That said, she was conceding 21lbs to the winner and yet still finished 7, 36 and 43 lengths respectively clear of the next three home.

She runs off the same mark again today and the drop back in trip should also help, as should the booking of experienced rider Adam Wedge. Adam has a good record here at this venue and since 2015, he's 19 from 84 (22.6% SR) for 48.7pts (+58% ROI) when riding in handicaps for trainer Evan Williams here and these include of note/relevance today...

  • 15/53 (28.3%) for 45.5pts (+85.6%) at odds of 7/4 to 8/1
  • 15/60 (25%) for 53.5pts (+89.1%) at 6-45 dslr
  • 12/35 (34.3%) for 39.6pts (+113%) top 3 finishers LTO
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 64.3pts (+189.1%) on 5/6 yo's
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 5.1pts (+32%) over this 2m trip
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 3.8pts (+42.1%) on good to soft

...whilst Wedge/Williams + 5-7 yo's + 7/4 to 8/1 + top 3 LTO + 6-30 dslr = 6/11 (54.6% SR) for 37.1pts (+337.3% ROI)...

More generally, Evan has had success with turning horses back out fairly quickly after a decent run. Numerically/specifically, I'm saying that since the start of 2016 his runners in UK NH handicaps who had a top 3 finish LTO in the previous fortnight are 17 from 55 (30.9% SR) for 32.8pts (+60.8% ROI) and whilst 15 runners a year isn't a large dataset to look at, there are some angles that (a) keep cropping up and (b) are valid today, such as...

  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 22.5pts (+93.6%) from LTO runners-up
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 24.5pts (+111.2%) at Class 4
  • 7/28 (25%) for 21.6pts (+77%) off the same mark as LTO
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 15.3pts (+80.5%) ridden by Adam Wedge
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 24.6pts (+223.7%) from May to July
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 17.9pts (+137.5%) in Novice handicaps
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.54pts (+94.9%) here at Ffos Las
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 1.97pts (+21.9%) from female runners

...and LTO runners-up racing at Class 4 off the same mark as LTO are 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 22.57pts (+282.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Grania O'Malley @ 3/1 BOG as offered by Bet365, SkyBet, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th May 2019

Friday's pick was...

8.40 Worcester : Forget Me Knot @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, outpaced after 3 out, never able to challenge, weakened last)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

7.35 Ffos Las:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Atomic Rumble @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3½f on Good ground worth £4614 to the winner... 

Why?...

Trainer Peter Bowen's chasers are 31/101 (30.7% SR) for 38.7pts (+38.3% ROI) when sent off at odds of evens to 13/2 here at Ffos Las since 2o12 and these include...

  • at trips of 2m to 3m : 29/89 (32.6%) for 41pts (+46%)
  • at 4 to 60 days since last run : 27/78 (34.6%) for 47.5pts (+60.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 20/65 (30.8%) for 29.6pts (+45.5%)
  • ridden by Sean Bowen : 16/44 (36.4%) for 25.6pts (+58.2%)
  • in May : 7/16 (43.75%) for 11.2pts (+69.9%)
  • 6 yr olds are 6/13 (46.2%) for 6.85pts (+52.7%)

...and when Sean Bowen has ridden a Class 4 runner over 2m to 3m, 4 to 60 after the horse last ran = 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) for 15pts at an ROI of 83.2%.

More generally in "Summer Jumps" ie handicap chases during May to September, Peter Bowen has 33 winners from 148 (22.3% SR) for profits of 96.6pts (+65.3% ROI) since the start of May 2017, from which...

  • Sean Bowen is 26/99 (26.3%) for 54.5pts (+55%)
  • those turned out 11-45 days after their last run are 23/91 (25.3%) for 51.2pts (+56.2%)
  • and Class 4 runners are 18/64 (28.1%) for 94.4pts (+147.6%)

...whilst Sean Bowen on Class 4 runners, 11-45 days after their last run = 8 from 25 (32% SR) for 23.5pts (+94% ROI) profit...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Atomic Rumble @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.20pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.35 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th September 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

5.05 Uttoxeter : Strong Team @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Mid-division, not fluent 3 out or 2 out, headway before last, kept on flat)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sylvias Mother @ 4/1 & 7/2 BOG  

In a 14-runner, Class 6 Nursery for 2yo over 5f on Good ground, worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

These 14 runners are collectively 1 win from 69 in their admittedly relatively short careers to date, yet our "girl" is 1 from 5, having scored in another 5f Nursery last time out when making all 20 days ago and I wouldn't be too surprised if she doesn't attempt the same thing from stall 1 today.

Her yard is in good form, as Joseph Tuite's runners have won 3 from 7 in the past 10 days, but then again he does tend to do well in September. His overall career record (ie since 2011) in the month of September shows 17 winners from 102 handicap races with the decent 16.7% strike rate producing profits of 62pts at a very healthy ROI of 60.8%, from which...

  • over trips no further than a mile : 16/79 (20.3%) for 81.2pts (+102.8%)
  • in Nursery contests : 4/16 (25%) for 19.83pts (+123.6%)
  • and at this minimum trip : 3/15 (20%) for 17.4pts (+116.1%)

Joseph doesn't actually send very many horses on the 150 mile trip West from Lambourn to Trimsaran, but he has still managed to land a couple of wins from seven handicap attempts over the last couple of years, so he's not a complete stranger to the winners' enclosure here in South Wales.

Also, since the start of 2015, he has done pretty well at getting his horses to land back to back successes, as his LTO winners are 14 from 65 (21.5% SR) for 25.1pts (+38.6% ROI) in handicap contests during that time with his 2 year olds winning 2 of 2 for 5.67pts (+283.5%).

Jason Watson will be in the saddle today and he's generally very good value for his 3lb claim, which negates the rise in weight for Sylvias Mother's win last time out and Jason has been averaging a strike rate of almost 20% for some time now, whilst this year alone when riding the favourite he has 28 wins from 68 (41.2% SR) for 6.46pts (+9.5% ROI), bucking the general trend of favourites.

Of those 68 rides...

  • over 5/6 furlongs : 9/20 (45%) for 6.83pts (+34.1%)
  • on 2yr olds : 3/4 (75%) for 3.53pts (+88.3%)
  • and on 2yr olds over 5/6 furlongs : 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 2.88pts (+95.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sylvias Mother @ 4/1 & 7/2 BOG, prices offered by Betfair & Paddy Power respectively as of 5.50pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th August 2018

Monday's Pick was...

2.40 Ayr : Acadian Angel @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leaders, challenged over 2f out, ridden and every chance over 1f out, one pace inside final furlong)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

5.15 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Air of York 3/1 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Soft ground worth £3817 to the winner...

Why?

I'm going to keep this relatively short, sweet and hopefully simple....

Here we have a 6yr old with 3 wins and 2 runner-up finishes from his last eight starts, so he's certainly in decent nick and he's got a previous soft ground win to his name.

His trainer John Flint isn't the most well known on the circuit, doesn't have the largest string of horses and CANNOT be followed religiously in the hope of making a profit, but like so many of his profession, he has found himself a niche where he is (a) successful and (b) profitable to follow and in John's case, we're going to look at his record in lower grade shorter distance Flat handicaps as a way in to this race, because...

...2012-18 / John Flint / Class 5+6 / Flat handicaps / 5 to 10 furlongs = 16 from 104 (15.4% SR) for 63.4pts (+60.9% ROI) : compare this to his overall record on the Flat in that period of those not fitting the above which stands at 12/147 (8.16% SR) for a loss of 52.6pts (-35.8% ROI), showing how much better he does in this area.

And of those 104 runners...

  • those last seen 1 to 7 weeks earlier : 16/81 (19.8% SR) for 86.4pts (+106.6%) this should probably have been the cut-off for the angle above
  • July-October : 14/63 (22.2%) for 72.7pts (+115.4%)
  • using a 3lb claimer in the saddle  :5/20 (25%) for 22.1pts (+110.7%)
  • on Soft ground : 4/17 (23.5%) for 3.5pts (+20.5%)
  • 6 yr olds : 5/22 (22.7%) for 31.3pts (+142.2%)

...AND...in July to October after 1 to 7 weeks rest = 14/57 (24.6% SR) for 78.7pts (+138% ROI), which if I'm honest is a more than acceptable stat to hang a bet on, but if you wanted that breaking down, here's how it looks under today's conditions...

  • 6 yr olds  :4/15 (26.7%) for 14.5pts (+96.6%)
  • 3lb claimer : 5/13 (38.5%) for 29.1pts (+224.1%)
  • Soft ground : 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.6pts (+57.4%)
  • 6yo + 3lb claimer : 2/5 (40%) for 5.2pts (+104%)
  • 6yo on Soft : 1/2 (50%) for 1.66pts (+83%)
  • 3lb claimer on Soft : 1/1 (100%) for 2.66pts (+266%)
  • 6yo + 3lb claimer on Soft : 1/1 (100%) for 2.66pts (+266%)

And today's jockey claiming the 3lb allowance is the very talented Nicola Currie who is riding really well right now having clocked up 5 winners and 5 placers from her 20 rides over the last week...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Air of York 3/1 BOGa price offered by more than half a dozen firms at 5.45pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th May 2017

Friday's Result :

6.40 Musselburgh : Sebastians Wish @ 10/3 BOG WON at 5/2 Made most, shaken up 2f out, clear inside final furlong, eased towards finish, comfortable win by 7 lengths.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

8.00 Ffos Las...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heist9/2 BOG

Why?

I'm going to keep this short and simple (well, by own standards at least!)....

So we have a consistently good 7 yr old gelding whose run of form over the last 12 months reads 1311313, and amongst his career stats we find that he has 3 wins on good ground, he has won twice under today's jockey, he has three wins from eight starts in fields of 1-7 runners, he's also won in a better standard Class 3 race than this.

He has also won four times from seven outings in cheekpieces and two wins from three races at 3 miles and beyond.

And in addition to the above, his trainer Patrick Griffin's handicappers racing over 3m to 3m 1.5f over the last two years are 4 from 10 (40% SR) for level stakes of profits of 126.52pts (+1265.2% ROI) and of those 10 runners, Class 3 competitors are 2 from 4 (50%) for 19.37pts (+484.1%)...

...leading to...a 1pt win bet on Heist9/2 BOG which was available with Betway, Bet365 & Betfair at 7.40pm on Friday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 30th November 2016

Tuesday's Result :

1.25 Southwell : Toviere @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Led, ridden and headed after 2 out, 3rd and weakening before last)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.20 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Copper Birch @ 3/1 non-BOG until morning or 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding comes here on a hat-tirck, having won here at Ffos Las over 3 miles 24 days ago, before going on to score again by 7 lengths over 2m3f at relatively nearby Hereford a week ago, showing versatility regarding trip and going acros the two runs.

He went up 2lbs for the first win, but the booking of a 10lb claimer more than took care of that and with that second win coming in a conditional jockey's race, there's no penalty today, but the 10lb claimer keeps the ride, effectively making the horse well in.

And the stats?

Since the start of 2011, handicap chasers aged 7 to 11 who were winners last time out within the previous 7 days and had also ran at least one other time in the past three months are 112 from 354 (31.6% SR) for 77pts (+21.7% ROI), of which...

  • males are 104/321 (32.4%) for 80.2pts (+25%)
  • those who won by more than a lengthy LTO are 105/313 (33.6%) for 93.4pts (+29.8%)
  • those racing on good or good to soft ground are 63/194 (32.5%) for 84.2pts (+43.4%)
  • and at trips of 2m5f/2m6f : 15/29 (51.7%) for 63.6pts (+219.2%)

AND...from the above : males racing on good / good to soft ground and who won by more than a length LTO are 57/158 (36.1% SR) for 79.8pts (+50.5% ROI) with those racing over 2m5f/2m6f winning 11 of 15 (73.3%) for 58.8pts (+392%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Copper Birch at 3/1 with either Betfred or Totesport, but they don't go BOG until morning or you can take 11/4 BOG from Bet365 and about 8 others, as of 6.40pm on Tuesday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard