Tag Archives: denis o’regan

Stat of the Day, 17th December 2015

Stat of the Day, 17th December 2015

Wednesday's Result :

1.05 Lingfield : New Rich @ 11/2 BOG 5th at 4/1 (Towards rear, ridden halfway, stayed on final furlong, nearest at finish, beaten by 4 lengths)

Thursday's selection runs in the...

2.50 Exeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tolkeins Tango @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

Tolkeins Tango is 3 from 11 over fences to date and was a decent if tired 3rd at Chepstow last time out. He was beaten by less than three lengths that day and actually finished second before a stewards' room demotion bumped him down a place and halved his prize money! All things considered, it was a decent effort over 2m 3.5f  on heavy ground after no run in 271 days and she should strip fitter for the outing 289 days ago off the same 118 mark as today.

He's 2 from 6 here at Exeter and has finished 1st & 3rd in two chase outings here, including a win over 2m 3.5f, a trip where he is 2 from 4 with finishes of 3113. He's trained by Vic Dartnall, who was back amongst the winners on Wednesday and has a good recent record here at Exeter, with 25 winners from 147 (17% SR) runners here saince the start of 2009 that have produced level stakes profits of 31.2pts at an ROI of 21.2%.

With today's race firmly in mind, my top 10 stats about those 147 runners are as follows...

  1. Males are 22/125 (17.6% SR) for 35.5pts (+28.4% ROI)
  2. 6/7 yr olds are 18/81 (22.2% SR) for 57.1pts (+70.5% ROI)
  3. Class 4 runners are 15/79 (19% SR) for 11pts (+14% ROI)
  4. Handicappers are 17/75 (22.7% SR) for 29.4pts (+39.3% ROI)
  5. Those priced 7/4 to 7/1 are 19/60 (31.7% SR) for 46.4pts (+77.3% ROI)
  6. Those running at the same trip as LTO or dropping by up to 3f are 16/57 (28.1% SR) for 41.9pts (+73.4% ROI)
  7. Chasers are 9.46 (19.6% SR) for 12.1pts (+26.3% ROI)
  8. In fields of 8 runners or less : 13/45 (28.9% SR) for 41.6pts (+92.5% ROI)
  9. Ridden by Denis O'Regan : 5/22 (22.7% SR) for 17.6pts (+79.8% ROI)
  10. Racing 21 to 30 after their last run : 5/19 (26.3% SR) for 9.38pts (+49.4% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 7.45pm?

A 1pt win bet on Tolkeins Tango @ 5/2 BOG with any one of four firms, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Exeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 8th January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th January 2014

Advised at 4/1 and backed in to 5/2 favouritism, Renard Dirlande looked a good bet in the early stages of yesterday's encounter, but a mistake at the 6th fence caused him to unseat Aidan Coleman, denying us of the opportunity to continue our recent fine run.

Today, however, is a whole new day and I'm taking a crack at the...

12.10 Doncaster:

John Ferguson has had a pretty successful start to life as a trainer, with a near 23% strike rate already amassed from his 363 runners. Backing them blindly at SP results in a small loss, but this generally means that BOG backers would have made a modest profit throughout.

Of his 363 runners to date, just 17 have run here at Town Moor, but a return of 6 winners and 5 placers makes good reading. The 35.3% strike rate (64.7% placed) can be further improved by ignoring the runners we tend not to go for here at SotD.

To which end, his stats are five winners (35.7% SR) and 4 placers (64.3% placed) from 14 runners, when we discard the odds on / double-digit odds runners. And whilst the returned profits of 3.15pts (+22.50% ROI) aren't spectacular, they're a starting point that would no doubt be bettered by using the BOG bookmakers.

John has just the one runner today in the shape of Namibian, who was a decent runner on the Flat in 2011 for Mark Johnston, being placed in a couple of listed events, before tasting success in consecutive outings at Group 3 level over 2 miles (Good to Soft) and 1m4f, meaning that he should have enough stamina coupled with speed between the hurdles providing he gets round today.

He suffered from colic and was absent from the track for 16 months (he was also gelded during his layoff), before taking to hurdling on his return at Huntingdon four weeks ago. He clearly needed the run that day, but his jumping held up well for a hurdling debut. He tailed off fairly quickly late on and his jockey (Denis O'Regan who rides again today) eased him down once the race had gone.

He'll improve for having had a pipe-opener and the declared good to soft ground should suit him here today. It's actually soft in places and more rain likely, it could get boggier, which could help us with a horse who is 1/1 on soft ground and has a won and a place to his name from four races on Good to Soft.

Had this been a flat race, he'd have been pretty short and I was hoping/expecting we'd get around 5/1 today. I was therefore, pleasantly surprised to see Coral offering 8/1 BOG. That means it's now a safety-first approach for me with a 0.5pts E/W bet on Namibian at 8/1 BOG with Coral. To see what prices are available elsewhere...

Click here for the latest betting on the 12.10 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

Here is today's racecard!