Tag Archives: David Probert

Stat of the Day, 19th December 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

2.05 Ludlow : Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 2/1 (Chased winner, led briefly 5th, lost 2nd before 4 out, soon weakened and last home, 33 lengths off the pace!)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Elzaam's Dream @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly was a runner-up over course and distance when last seen 17 days ago. She was partnered by today's jockey, David Probert, for the first time that day and was only beaten by a neck. She was, however, a little more than two lengths clear of Seraphim back in fourth place, who herself has since reappeared here last Saturday as a winner.

After making a mess of the original post last night, I'm going to keep the stats pretty simple today with a look at he trainer's record at this venue in recent years, as...

...Ron Harris' runners are 19 from 149 (12.75% SR) for 132.04pts (+88.6% ROI) backed blindly in Class 4-6 handicaps here since the start of 2016. These are good numbers for non-top level yard, but I should point out that the profit and ROI are both skewed by a couple of 16/1 winners and a 33/1 success that paid out at 101/1 on the Betfair SP.

I rarely back horses at double digit odds and I certainly don't advocate backing 33/1 shots at Wolverhampton too often, so let's focus on those of the original 149 runners who were sent off shorter than 10/1, shall we?

Yes, Chris, let's do that, I almost hear you shout and you'd be right to, because those runners are a more realistic 14 from 59 (23.7% SR) for 44.4pts (+75.3% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 8/39 (20.5%) for 13.79pts (+35.4%) at Class 6
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 30.88pts (+128.7%) with jockey David Probert
  • 6/15 (40%) for 39.76pts (+265.1%) during December to February
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 16.71pts (+104.5%) with female runners
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 13.98pts (+87.4%) with David Probert at Class 6
  • 4/19 (21.05%) for 3.35pts (+17.65%) from 3 yr olds
  • and 4/16 (25%) for 7.06pts (+44.1%) this year alone...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Elzaam's Dream @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday as was offered by the first to show, Hills at 4.45pm on Wednesday. They were still best priced of all at 6.55pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th December 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

6.45 Wolverhampton : Grey Mist @ 10/3 BOG 9th at 11/2 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd over 13f out until over 5f out, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.1o Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Highland Acclaim @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £2.782 to the winner...

Why?...

In a race where none of the runners are in any real kind of decent form, I'm siding with an 8 yr old gelding who has 10 wins to his name and races off a mark 10lbs and 2 classes lower than when winning back to back Class 4 handicaps here on this track earlier in the year, including one over course and distance.

His overall career stats are modest at 10/103 (9.7% SR) for a loss of 11.63pts (-11.3% ROI), but he does go much better when faced with the conditions on offer today, as he is 8 from 17 (47.1% SR) for 42.82pts (+251.9% ROI) in 6/7f handicaps at odds of 12/1 and shorter when wearing a hood in a field of 7-10 runners after three weeks rest, running for trainer David O'Meara...

...who himself is 15/70 (21.4% SR) for 47.43pts (+67.8% ROI) in A/W handicaps here at Lingfield since the start of 2016 with horses sent off at 10/1 and shorter, including...

  • 12/41 (29.3%) for 50.29pts (+122.7%) over 5-7 furlongs
  • 8/37 (21.6%) for 26.3pts (+71.1%) during December/January
  • 8/25 (32%) for 39.6pts (+158.4%) in 2019
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 23.2pts (+145%) from 8/9 yr olds
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 7.16pts (+102.3%) with jockey David Probert
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 18pts (+300%) at Class 6...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Highland Acclaim @ 3/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th August 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.00 Newbury : Charlemaine @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (Reason: Going)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dazzling Dan @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good ground worth £28,012 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding has had 8 runs to date, all over today's 6f trip and he he has made the frame 6 times, winning twice. He went down by just a length last time out, when beaten into third place over this course and distance in a much more valuable Class 2 handicap 37 days ago.

He has been placed on both previous runs over course and distance and was a winner on his only run on the Rowley Mile and has a win and a place from 3 rides under today's jockey David Probert. He also has a win and a place from 3 efforts at Class 2 and a win and a place from two starts on Good ground.

His trainer Pam Sly is another who doesn't break too many pots, but is very good in certain conditions and her speciality seems to be over shorter distances, as over the last three Flat seasons, her runners are 12 from 52 (23.1% SR) for 49.9pts (+95.9% ROI) over trips of 6 to 7.5 furlongs, including of relevance today...

  • 10/37 (27%) for 48.5pts (+131.1%) from May to August
  • 9/38 (23.7%) for 30pts (+79%) at 10-40 days since last run
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 23.4pts (+123.4%) at 2/1 to 5/1
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 20pts (+105.1%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 47.7pts (+340.9%) over a 6f trip
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 33.1pts (+254.7%) from 3 yr olds
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 9.3pts (+155%) in August

...from which...those sent off at 2/1 to 5/1 during May to August some 10 to 40 days after a top 3 finish LTO are 6 from 7 (85.7% SR) for 28.5pts (+407.1% ROI) including 3/4 from 3 yr olds, 2/2 over 6f and 2/2 in August...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dazzling Dan @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365 & BetVictor respectively at 11.00pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th August 2019

Thursday's pick was...

2.10 Lingfield : Visionara @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Pressed leader, led 2f out, ridden over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, driven out to win by a length and three quarters)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Charlemaine @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Nursery for 2yo over 5f on Good To Soft ground worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

This 2 yr old colt has won two (his first & his last) of his four starts to date, with his two defeats coming in far better (C2 & listed) big-field contests. He did, however win LTO when making his handicap/nursery debut at Sandown 16 days ago, when he also wore the blinkers for the first time in public.

His trainer Paul Cole has got his horses going well enough without ripping up any trees, but 2 winners and 2 placers from 7 over the last week is a decent enough return and whilst he doesn't send many here to Newbury, once again he does well enough without reaching superstar status.

In fact over the last four seasons, Paul has only had 38 runners at this track, but 6 winners (15.8% SR) and 49.5pts (+130.2% ROI) is a good return for both him and his followers. Of those 38 runners and of relevance today...

  • 4/21 (19.1%) for 35.8pts (+170.6%) at Class 4
  • 4/16 (25%) for 25.8pts (+161.1%) at 12/1 and shorter
  • 4/10 (40%) for 50.8pts (+508%) in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 3/15 (20%) for 37pts (+246.9%) with 2 yr olds
  • 2/8 (25%) for 22.7pts (+283.3%) on Good to Soft
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 18.9pts (+630%) with David Probert in the saddle

...and a composite from the above? OK, 2/3 yr olds  + Classes 3-5 + 16/1 max SP = 5/10 (50% SR) for 55.58pts (+555.8% ROI) including 2 yr olds at 2/3 (66.6%) for 27.15pts (+905%).

Meanwhile, during that same last four seasons time frame, Paul Cole's LTO winners are 12 from 55 (21.8% SR) for 36.1pts (+65.6% ROI) when sent off at 2/1 or bigger in handicaps, including of note today...

  • 11/46 (23.9%) for 35.5pts (+77.2%) from male runners
  • 10/37 (27%) for 46.7pts (+126.3%) at trips of 5-8 furlongs
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 38.6pts (+183.9%) from August to November
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 28pts (+127.3%) at Class 4
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 15.05pts (+125.4%) in fields of 7-8 runners
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 11.35pts (+567.5%) with 2 yr olds

...from which, you could consider males at 5-8 furlongs during August to November for 6 from 12 (50% SR) and 34.3pts (+285.5% ROI) profit...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Charlemaine @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365 & SkyBet at 6.00pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th July 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

4.40 Worcester : Three Colours Red @ 5/2 BOG WON at 9/4 (Chased leaders, closed after 4 out, 2nd before next, led flat, driven out for a relatively comfortable win by 2.5 lengths)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.00 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Baron Bolt @ 11/4 BOG

In a 5-runner, Class 3 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £8715 to the winner... 

Why?

It's fair to say that this 5 yr old gelding was disappointing last time when when well beaten at Newmarket. it's quite possible that a third run inside five weeks was a step too far after nearly 7 months off the track, so I'm prepared to overlook that run, especially as he's finished as a runner-up in his previous four contests, all at a better standard than today's race.

He's now had nearly four weeks to recuperate from his latest effort and I'd expect a return to past form, especially as in Flat handicaps he has...

  • 3 wins from 10 (30%) for 0.23pts (+2.3%) plus four placed finishes in cheekpieces
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.03pts (+179%) at odds of 2/1 to 4/1
  • 4/7 (57.1) for 7.03pts (+100.4%) in fields of 8 runners or less, plus 2 places.
  • 3 from 3 (100%) for 7.23pts (+241%) in July/August
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 2.82pts (+94%) going left handed.

Today's jockey, David Probert, is red hot right now having won 7 of 19 rides (36.8% SR) over the past 5 days, whilst here at Epsom, he has an overall strike rate of 17% over 10 seasons (22/129).

And finally, to the trainer Paul Cole. Admittedly quiet so far this season, but the record books show that July-September are his better months for winning Flat handicaps, whilst since the start of the 2015 season, his 6/7 furlong runners are 26/162 (16.1% SR) for 168pts (+103.7% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 17/92 (18.5%) for 60.6pts (+65.9%)
  • within 30 days of their last run : 14/90 (15.6%) for 81.6pts (+90.7%)
  • in July : 9/32 (28.1%) for 102.3pts (+319.8%)
  • ridden by David Probert : 3/8 (37.5%) for 24.4pts (+305%)
  • and here at Epsom @ 2/4 950%) for 19.3pts (+481.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Baron Bolt @ 11/4 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Wednesday evening, whilst Bet365 ( (the first to break cover) were going at 7/2 BOG for those able to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th September 2017

Monday's Result :

5.00 Brighton : Black Caesar @ 11/2 BOG (3.85/1 after 30p R4)- WON at 7/2 : Led early, chased leader, switched right 2f out, led entering final furlong, soon clear, comfortably home by 6 lengths...

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.15 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Golden Salute @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

A fourth start for this progressive-looking filly, who is 2 from 2 after finishing 7th on debut earlier in "the summer" (as some people still like to call the middle part of the year!), more is needed on handicap/nursery debut of course, but the signs are good, for...

...trainer Andrew Balding's late season 2 yr olds are something I look out for. Well, more specifically, I look for runners to fulfil the following criteria...

...2009-17 / Flat / Class 1 to 4 / 5 to 7 furlongs / July to October / just 0-3 career runs to date - this sounds quite restrictive, but it's a nice little micro good for around 35 bets a season and to date stands at 39/303 (12.9% SR) for 38.2pts (+126.1% ROI) profit.

Those numbers are then backed up by Mr Balding's record since 2010 with 2 to 4 yr olds making a handicap debut after at least one career win and such beasts are 24/113 (21.2% SR) for 46.5pts (+41.2% ROI) in the 6/4 to 12/1 broad odds range, with today's jockey, Geegeez-sponsored, David Probert riding 14 of those of 24 winners from just 41 attempts (34.2% SR) for profits of 45.4pts (+110.8% ROI).

Lucky pants?

Lucky pants?

So, if the "lucky Geegeez pants" work their magic again today...

...we're well set with... a 1pt win bet on Golden Salute @ 5/2 BOG, which was widely available at 8.30pm on Monday: the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with Sky again. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th June 2017

Thursday's Result :

7.35 Sandown : Hold Sway @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 Tracked leader, ridden to lead over 2f out, soon headed, kept on but lost 2nd inside final furlong.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

8.50 Goodwood...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Zambesi Queen11/4 BOG

Why?

A very comfortable winner by some 5 lengths over this 6f trip when last seen five weeks ago. She was ridden by today's jockey, David Probert that day as she scored on her handicap debut despite being off the track for 5 months, so she could well have more to give.

Trainer Paul Cole's handicappers with less than 4 handicap runs under their belts are 16/95 (16.8% SR) for 41.8pts (+44% ROI) over the last two years, which is very impressive indeed and under today's conditions, they are...

  • 12/67 (17.9%) for 32.25pts (+48.1%), 6 to 60 days since their last run
  • 11/58 (19%) for 23.1pts (+39.8%) on Turf
  • 3 yr olds are 10/57 (17.5%) for 42.9pts (+75.2%)
  • 6/32 (18.75%) for 41.7pts (+130.5%) at Class 5
  • females are 4/22 (18.2%) for 29.7pts (+135%)
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 51.5pts (+343.2%) over 6f
  • those with 1 previous hcp win are 4/13 (30.8%) for 20pts (+153.9%)
  • and those ridden by David Probert  are 3/5 (60%) for 30.95pts (+618.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Zambesi Queen11/4 BOG which was offered by both Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.50 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 8th March 2017

Tuesday's Result :

2.00 Southwell : Crosse Fire @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 9/4 Prominent, ridden over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, stayed on, beaten by just over half a length.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

4.30 Lingfield...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Make Music13/2 BOG

Why?

Well, on another day that's hardly brimming with decent statistical options, I'm going to keep it fairly simple with a 4yr old who has 3 wins and a place from just 5 visits to Lingfield (2 wins from 3 on the A/W) and has a 2 from 6 record under today's jockey David Probert.

She's trained by Andrew Balding whose runners have won 48 of their 280 A/W races here at Lingfield since the start of 2013 and that 17.1% strike rate is good for level stakes profits of 76.1pts at an ROI of 27.2%. These are decent enough figures to base a bet on, especially when I feel the horse is overpriced at as high as 7/1 (she was actually 12's at one point!).

More confidence is gained from breaking the trainer's record down into components of today's race, because those 280 Andrew Balding Lingfield runners have achieved the following under today's conditions...

  • over 6f to 1m : 27/170 (15.9%) for 115.6pts (+68%)
  • running 16-30 days after last run : 18/97 (18.6%) for 123pts (+126.8%)
  • ridden by David Probert : 19/96 (19.8%) for 73.3pts (+76.4%)
  • 4 yr olds are 14/50 (28%) for 35.5pts (+71%)
  • and at Class 4 : 8/26 (30.8%) for 28.8pts (+110.6%)

...providing...a 1pt win bet on Make Music 13/2 BOG which was available with Hills, Betbright, BetVictor and/or Coral at 6.35pm on Tuesday, but if you can, DO take the 7/1 BOG-plus on offer from Betway. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 4th February 2017

Friday's Result :

3.20 Catterick : Actinpieces @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/1 Held up in touch in last pair, steady headway tracking leaders 4 out, 3rd next, ridden and went 2nd last, stayed on to lead final 110 yards to win by 3.25 lengths.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Verne Castle @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 4yr old gelding has won three of his last four, over over this 5f trip on the A/W and was 5th last time out 30 days ago, when probably needing the run after 15 weeks off the track.

To date, he's 3/5 on standard, 3/5 @ 5f, 3/5 going left handed, 3/4 in a hood and 3/3 within 30 days of his last run, so he's certainly got optimum conditions here.

The Andrew Balding / David Probert / Lingfield AW handicap angle is a good one, as since 2009 with runners priced at 14/1 or shorter, they are 12/60 (20% SR) for 14.2pts (+23.6% ROI) profit, including...

  • 3-5 yr olds : 12/53 (22.6%) for 21.2pts (+40%)
  • 6-30 days since last run : 8/39 (20.5%) for 12.2pts (+31.3%)
  • and at Class 4 : 4/13 (30.8%) for 22.9pts (+175.8%)

In addition to the above, there's another angle suggesting a good run today, as since 2008, Andrew Balding / Class 4&5 handicappers / only 1 previous run in the past 90 days = 52/290 (17.9% SR) for 118.7pts (+40.9% ROI), with the following of interest/relevance...

  • 6-30 dslr : 42/206 (20.4%) for 140.7pts (+68.3%)
  • on the A/W : 21/109 (19.3%) for 31.5pts (+28.9%)
  • 4 yr olds are 16/70 (22.9%) for 46.1pts (+65.8%)
  • at Lingfield : 10/39 (25.6%) for 24.1pts (+61.9%)
  • and over the minimum 5f trip : 3/10 (30%) for 2.23pts (+22.3%)

...so for Saturday...a 1pt win bet on Verne Castle @ 9/2 BOG which was pretty widely available at 7.00pm on Friday To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

SotD, Monday 31st August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 31st August 2015

Jockey Joe Doyle and horse Tom Sawyer did absolutely nothing wrong at Beverley and looked to have timed their run to the line to perfection, but we were all undone by a flying finisher who pipped us in the shadow of the post.

There's something reassuring about backing a 4/1 runner-up at 7/1 BOG and coming within a neck of pulling off a bit of a gamble, but near misses don't pay cash! August (and Mondays in particular) has been good to us and whatever happens today, we'll finish with a handsome profit from the month.

I would, however, like to bow out with one more winner via the...

4.45 Epsom :

But before I give you the selection, a quick update on my schedule that you might find useful. As you know I'm away on holiday at present, but I've now a daily routine established.

If SotD isn't now posted between 6.30pm & 7.00pm in the evening, it will appear between 8.30am & 9.00am on the day of the race. There are also instant notifications on our Facebook page / Twitter feed.

And a 5/2 BOG bet on Passover in this 8-runner, Class 3 handicap over 1m2f on soft ground with a horse in great form of late.

In the last 7 seasons, trainer Andrew Balding is 30/163 (18.4% SR) for 107pts (+65.7% ROI) profit here at Epsom. From that record, jockey David Probert is 13/64 (20.3% SR) for 33.7pts (+52.6% ROI)

Passover is 3/5 on the Flat, but 3 from 3 since stepping up to today's 1m2f trip and was a course and distance winner by 7 lengths here two starts ago and won by the same margin at Sandown last time out, 25 days ago.

In the last 3 seasons, Andrew Balding's runners returning to the scene of a course and distance win off the back of a win (anywhere) last time out are 12/28 (42.9% SR) for 25.4pts (+90.7% ROI).

Those runners running at the same trip as last time are 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 24.6pts (+91.2% ROI) with those priced below 7/2 winning 9 of 17 (52.9% SR) for 8.4pts (+49.4% ROI).

All 3 wins for Passover to date share many of the factors that will be at play today, namely...

  • all over 1m2f
  • all in races of 7 to 11 runners
  • all within 30 days of his last run
  • all wearing a hood
  • all wearing a tongue tie
  • and all below 7/2

I've taken my 5/2 BOG about Passover from Coral, as they'll refund a defeat by a head, but with several other firms offering the same price, you should...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Epsom

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.