Tag Archives: David O’Meara

Stat of the Day, 11th December 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

6.45 Wolverhampton : Grey Mist @ 10/3 BOG 9th at 11/2 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd over 13f out until over 5f out, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.1o Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Highland Acclaim @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £2.782 to the winner...

Why?...

In a race where none of the runners are in any real kind of decent form, I'm siding with an 8 yr old gelding who has 10 wins to his name and races off a mark 10lbs and 2 classes lower than when winning back to back Class 4 handicaps here on this track earlier in the year, including one over course and distance.

His overall career stats are modest at 10/103 (9.7% SR) for a loss of 11.63pts (-11.3% ROI), but he does go much better when faced with the conditions on offer today, as he is 8 from 17 (47.1% SR) for 42.82pts (+251.9% ROI) in 6/7f handicaps at odds of 12/1 and shorter when wearing a hood in a field of 7-10 runners after three weeks rest, running for trainer David O'Meara...

...who himself is 15/70 (21.4% SR) for 47.43pts (+67.8% ROI) in A/W handicaps here at Lingfield since the start of 2016 with horses sent off at 10/1 and shorter, including...

  • 12/41 (29.3%) for 50.29pts (+122.7%) over 5-7 furlongs
  • 8/37 (21.6%) for 26.3pts (+71.1%) during December/January
  • 8/25 (32%) for 39.6pts (+158.4%) in 2019
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 23.2pts (+145%) from 8/9 yr olds
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 7.16pts (+102.3%) with jockey David Probert
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 18pts (+300%) at Class 6...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Highland Acclaim @ 3/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th October 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

5.45 Southwell : Cold Harbour @ 6/1 3rd at 5/1 (Led 1f, tracked leaders, driven to lead again over 2f out, soon ridden, headed over 1f out, modest 3rd inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mischief Star @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Tapeta worth £4464 to the winner...

Why?...

This improving 2 yr old colt is the form horse here, winning two of his last four and also making the frame on one other occasion. He won more comfortably than a one length margin would suggest last time out, when landing a similar Class 4, 7f Nursery over this course and distance 12 days ago and I'm not convinced a 5lb rise elevating him to top weight will be enough to stop him improving upon a record that also show 2 wins and a place from 4 over this 7f trip and 2 wins and a place from three runs going left handed.

Jockey David Nolan is 5 from 14 (35.7% SR) for 14.16pts (+101.2% ROI) over the last three years here at Wolverhampton on horses trained by David O'Meara, including...

  • 5/10 (50%) for 18.16pts (+181.6%) on those with a race in the previous 25 days
  • 5/10 (50%) for 18.16pts (+181.6%) on those sent off shorter than 8/1
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 12.07pts (+120.7%) on handicappers

And I mentioned he was top weight here today, conceding 3lbs or more to all his 10 rivals, but that might not necessarily be a cause for concern, as over the last three years here at Wolverhampton, the top (or joint top) weighted horses in Nurseries are 19 from 54 (35.2% SR) for 47.9pts (+88.7%) when sent off at 7/1 or shorter and these include of note/relevance today...

  • 15/43 (34.9%) for 48.5pts (+112.8%) conceding 0-3lbs to the next horse in the weights
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 28.6pts (+168.2%) in October
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 25.8pts (+135.7%) over this 7f C&D
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 1.79pts (+12.8%) from LTO winners
  • and 4/11 (36.4%) for 10.93pts (+99.3%) at Class 4...

...with those carrying 0-3lbs more than the next horse over 7f in October winning 3 of 6 (50% SR) for 18.8pts (+313.2% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Mischief Star @ 10/3 BOG as was offered by Bet365 at 5.40pm on Tuesday, whilst Hills were slightly shorter at 3/1. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd October 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

1.45 Bangor : Day of Roses @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 8/1 (In touch, headway 6 out, effort after 3 out, no extra approaching last)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ventura Royal @ 9/2 BOG 

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £5,111 to the winner...  

Why?...

Well, we've an in-form 4 yr old filly making a Polytrack (and A/W for that matter) debut off the back of two wins from her last three runs. Those wins came on Good to Firm ground and then on Soft/Heavy, so she's clearly very adaptable to going conditions.

She has three career wins to date, from which...

  • all 3 were in fields of 8-11 runners
  • all 3 were at Class 4/5 (1 x C4 & 2 x C5)
  • 2 were over trips beyond a mile
  • 2 were after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 2 were whilst wearing a hood
  • and 2 were at odds of 5/1 and shorter

Her jockey today, Jamie Spencer aka Mr Marmite, is also in sparkling form right now, with 20 placed finishes (44.4%) from 45 rides over the last 30 days, winning on 10 occasions (22.2% SR) generating 16.5pts profit from the winners at an ROI of 36.7%.

Jamie has also been pretty successful at this venue, both as Great Leighs and now under the Chelmsford City name, including 13 wins from 36 (36.1% SR) for 8.76pts (+24.3% ROI) profit when racing over 7 to 14 furlongs on horses sent off at 5/1 and shorter since the start of 2017, from which...

  • 9/19 (47.4%) for 13.3pts (+70.2%) on horses last seen 6-25 days earlier
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 15.4pts (+118.5%) at Class 5
  • and 6 from 7 (85.7%) for 13.3pts (+189.4%) on Class 5 runners returning from a 6-25 day break.

Our trainer today, David O'Meara, has a decent record of late when switching turf runners to the A/W for the first time with 15 winners from 81 such runners (18.5% SR) for 99.4pts (+122.7% ROI) profit since the start of 2017 and these include...

  • 14/66 (21.2%) for 75pts (+113.6%) at Classes 4-6
  • 11/62 (17.7%) for 48.5pts (+78.2%) at 6-45 days since last run
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 24.4pts (+93.8%) at odds of 7/1 and shorter
  • 8/39 (20.5%) for 52.3pts (+134.2%) during August-October
  • 7/36 (19.4%) for 50pts (+138.8%) at Class 5
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 36pts (+720%) from LTO winners...

...whilst those racing at Classes 4-6 at odds of 7/1 and shorter after a break of 6-45 days are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 26.7pts (+166.6% ROI) including 4 from 8 (50%) for 12.66pts (+158.3%) during August to October...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Ventura Royal @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & BetVictor at 6.45pm on Wednesday, although the first two won't actually be BOG until midnight. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th September 2019

Thursday's pick was...

7.00 Chelmsford : Excellent George @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Raced wide in touch, ridden and headway entering final furlong, soon edged left, stayed on but beaten by a length)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.10 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Young Fire @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Heavy ground worth £9,338 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner here last time out, landing the odds on what seems to be default soft (or often worse like today) ground here at Haydock (the NW of the country is pretty wet right now yet again!). He was a length clear of the 4th placed and consistent Alemaratalyoum, who has, as recently as Wednesday of this week, since landed a Class 2 contest on heavy ground off a mark 1lb higher than ours today .

Just 3 UK starts today for this French-raised horse, but he does bring some decent (and winning) form on soft/very soft ground and has also proven that the trip is within him.

Stat-wise, we're going back to the trusted, reliable Tudhope/O'Meara partnership who yet again are having a good year and still continue to produce their winners at prices big enough to beat the bookies, which isn't often the case with well known angles.

That said the duo are 53 from 274 (19.3% SR) for 85.7pts (+31.3% ROI) for 2019, with the bulk of the runners running on the Flat, where they are 49/247 (19.8%) for 83.1pts (+33.7%). I'll admit that I knew they had close to a 1 in 5 record this year on the Flat, but I'm amazed that they're not overbet yet, so it's still an angle to follow.

If you wanted to be more specific, then of the 247 Flat runners this year...

  • 23/114 (20.2%) for 81.1pts (+71.1%) over 7 to 10 furlongs
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 83.1pts (+32.4%) this month alone
  • 8/38 (21%) for 21.1pts (+55.6%) at Class 3
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 36pts (+277.1%) over 7-10f this month
  • 5/20 (25%) for 20.4pts (+102%) in Class 3, 7-10f contests

Whilst slightly more generally, David O'Meara continues to enjoy success here at Haydock, where he is still profitable to back blindly, but with today's race in mind, I just wanted to highlight that over the past four seasons in 6-10.5f handicaps at odds of 5/2 to 9/1 (where we should be today, allowing for some movement), his runners are 9 from 51 (17.7% SR) for 14.4pts (+28.2% ROI), including...

  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 13.8pts (+51.1%) with Danny Tudhope in the saddle
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 13.2pts (+77.4%) at Class 3
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 14.37pts (+95.8%) on Soft/Heavy
  • 2/9 (22.2%) for 12.3pts (+136.5%) in September
  • and 1/4 (25%) for 0.38pts (+9.5%) on Heavy...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Young Fire @ 5/1 BOG as was available from SkyBet, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Thursday with plenty of 9/2 elsewhere, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th September 2019

Monday's pick was...

7.30 Kempton : Celtic Classis @ 10/3 BOG WON at 3/1 (Tracked leader, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to win by 1.25 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Star Shield @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4,  Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good to firm ground worth £5,693 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding has made the frame in five of his last six starts, winning twice and was only beaten by three quarters of a length over this course and distance last time out, 24 days ago : that was in a higher grade than today, so hopefully the drop in class will be to his (and our) advantage.

He has a win and two places from four starts at Class 4, a win and two runner-up finishes from his last three runs on good to firm, he has a win and a runner-up place from two previous visits to Redcar and was a runner-up on the only other occasion that David Nolan rode him.

His trainer David O'Meara is 38 from 151 (25.2% SR) for 70.8pts (+46.9% ROI) in Redcar handicaps at odds of 2/1 to 15/2 (where I do most of my betting), from which the following are relevant today...

  • 36/139 (28.1%) for 70.1pts (+50.4%) in races worth less than £8,000 to the winner
  • 29/92 (31.5%) for 72.7pts (+79%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 22/87 (25.3%) for 43.8pts (+50.3%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 16/45 (35.6%) for 42.5pts (+94.4%) with class droppers
  • 14/45 (31.1%) for 37.2pts (+82.7%) with 4 yr olds
  • 13/38 (34.2%) for 34.4pts (+90.4%) over trips of 8 to 9 furlongs
  • 11/41 (26.8%) for 20.6pts (+50.2%) at Class 4
  • and 10/46 (21.7%) for 16.6pts (+36.2%) over the last three seasons...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Star Shield @ 11/4 BOG as was available in half a dozen places at 5.45pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.45 Market Rasen : Global Tour @ 3/1 BOG non-runner

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hard Solution @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 5f on Good ground worth £2782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding has finished 2113 in his last four starts, with both wins coming at Class 6 and the two defeats at Class 5 and he now drops back in class again.

His trainer David O'Meara has enjoyed consistent success at this venue, notching up 43 winners from 239 (18% SR) handicappers here over the past 8 seasons, generating level stakes profits of 45.2pts at an ROI of 18.9% and these 239 runners include of relevance today...

  • 37/131 (28.2%) for 55.6pts (+42.5%) at odds of 7/4 to 15/2
  • 36/187 (19.25%) for 61.8pts (+33%) after a break of 4-30 days
  • 17/60 (28.3%) for 67.7pts (+112.8%) dropping down a class
  • 16/59 (27.1%) for 17.9pts (+30.3%) finished 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • 10/51 (19.6%) for 27.3pts (+53.5%) over the last two seasons
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 22.3pts (+76.9%) ridden by David Nolan
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 36.9pts (+123%) over this 5f C&D
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 14.75pts (+54.6%) at Class 6

...whilst simply backing class droppers reappearing 4-45 days after their last run and sent off at 7/4 to 15/2 over the last five seasons would give you 11 winners from 26 (42.3% SR) for 35.6pts (+136.8% ROI), including 3 from 6 under David Nolan...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hard Solution @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.25pm on Sunday, although Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th July 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Sandown : Magical Wish @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Tracked leading pair on inside, pushed along over 2f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, hard ridden and stayed on towards finish, not quite pace to challenge, beaten by a neck)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.40 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fairy Fast @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good To Firm worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

Yes, another David O'Meara trained horse ridden by Danny Tudhope, but from a different perspective today. Danny is still riding really well clocking up the winners and both he and David have good records here at Ripon individually and also as a partnership (31/145 = 21.4% SR) for 71.8pts @ 49.5% ROI in handicaps here), but I said enough about the partnership last week, so I'm not delving into that stat today, although it does remain a very valid starting point!

Instead I'm going to focus on the form of this 3 yr old filly and share a saved micro-system based on a quirk of results. Let me explain : this filly won here over course and distance four starts ago and her form since then reads 222, culminating in a two length-defeat at Thirsk five weeks ago when staying on strongest over 5f.

She's now back up in trip to her last winning distance and that run also qualifies her for a micro of mine, simply labelled "2-2-2" which basically highlights horses who finished as runner-up in each of their last three runs. The only restrictions imposed are that they need to be running in a UK Class 2 to 5 contest, 6-45 days after a defeat by a neck to 10 lengths.

Since the start of 2016, I've had 461 qualifiers yielding 116 winners (25.2% SR) and 91.8pts profit at an ROI of 19.9%. I appreciate you might not want 10-12 qualifiers per month from one angle, so the following filters are applicable today...

  • 84/316 (26.6%) for 139.1pts (+44%) in fields of 7-14 runners
  • 72/326 (22.1%) for 65.5pts (+20.1%) in handicaps
  • 71/330 (21.5%) for 98.3pts (+29.8%) at odds of 15/8 to 11/1
  • 50/170 (29.4%) for 35.1pts (+20.6%) on the Flat
  • 46/153 (30.1%) for 33.7pts (+22%) at Class 5
  • 33/112 (29.5%) for 36.3pts (+32.4%) from female runners
  • 21/66 (31.8%) for 28pts (+42.4%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 20/73 (27.4%) for 55.9pts (+76.6%) at 31-45 dslr
  • 20/90 (22.2%) for 36.2pts (+40.2%) stepping up in trip by 0.5 to 1 furlong
  • and 18/41 (43.9%) for 44.7pts (+109.1%) in July

...and from the above and relevant today... at odds of 15/8 to 11/1 in 7-14 runner Flat handicaps = 24 from 75 (32% SR) for 64.5pts (+86% ROI) and these include...

  • 11/28 (39.3%) for 27.5pts (+98.3%) at Class 5
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 36.5pts (+166%) from females
  • and 5/12 941.7%) for 17.8pts (+148.4%) from Class 5 females...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fairy Fast @ 5/1 BOG as offered by BetVictor & Hills at 5.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th July 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

5.40 Thirsk : Atletico @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Mid-division, driven over 2f out, ridden and stayed on to chase leaders inside final furlong, no impression)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tukhoom @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Firm ground worth £4852 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding has finished 2331 in his last four outings, all at this Class 5 grade and over trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs. He was a comfortable 4 lengths winner in 16-runner field last time out, 13 days ago and now makes his yard debut for David O'Meara.

You wouldn't need to be too clued up about racing to guess/assume that Danny Tudhope will be in the saddle today and the trainer/jockey partnership continues to churn out winners. This is a tried and tested partnership and their success has been well documented by myself and many others, so I won't delve too deeply there today (I hear a collective sigh of relief from the readers).

Both rider and handler come here in great form, Danny of course had a great Royal Ascot and whilst his 30-day stats are impressive at 28 from 107 (26.2% SR), his form has improved further more recently with 15 winners from 49 (30.6%) over the past fortnight rising to 12/28 (42.9%) in the past week : here is a man at the top of his game.

Mr O'Meara, unsurprisingly, also continues to clock up the winners and whilst not quite as spectacular as his jockey, an 8 from 35 (22.9% SR) record over the past week isn't to be sniffed at. This invariably means that they've partnered up well of late and over the last three weeks alone the combo is 5 from 16 (31.25% SR) for 5.17pts (+32.3% ROI) with horses sent off at Evens to 9/2, which is where we should be today.

The only surprise to me about the partnership is that it's still profitable to follow. I expect this won't last for too much longer and we'll need to look for niche angles to exploit the market (thankfully, that's how I work!).

Now, it's worth knowing (if not concentrating on) the fact that David O'Meara's runners who won LTO are 36 from 202 (17.8%) on the Flat over the last 3 (inc. this one) seasons, but as he's only had this horse for less than a fortnight, it's probably more relevant to look at how he fares with new arrivals to the yard and they are 24 from 220 (10.9% SR) for 175.9pts (+79.9% ROI) since the start of 2017.

That strike rate might not look the best, but as a starting point for blind backing, 1 in 10 isn't bad at all for new recruits to a yard. Obviously we want to see better numbers than that, so the following logical angles can be applied today, as from those 220 newbies...

  • 20/154 (13%) for 182.5pts (+118.5%) from male runners
  • 18/129 (14%) for 233.9pts (+181.3%) from April to July
  • 13/79 (16.9%) for 139.4pts (+176.4%) with Danny Tudhope aboard
  • 12/113 (10.6%) for 125.3pts (+110.9%) at Class 5
  • 8/72 (11.1%) for 89pts (+123.6%) in handicaps
  • and 4/31 (12.9%) for 15.4pts (+49.7%) from horses in David's care for less than two months

...from which, here's one of those niche angles we're likely to need going forward...

...David O'Meara's new male recruits ridden by Danny Tudhope in April-July (simple enough, isn't it?) are 10/39 (25.6% SR) for 164.4pts (+421.4% ROI) over the last three years, including 7/27 (25.9%) for 86.1pts (+318.8%) at Classes 4-6.

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Tukhoom @ 7/2 BOG as offered by pretty much everyone at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st June 2019

Thursday's pick was...

6.00 Ffos Las : Grania O'Malley @ 3/1 BOG WON at 2/1 (2nd until led before 10th, soon 4 lengths clear, maintained advantage until last, driven and held on gamely close home)

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.50 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Agincourt @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3 Fillies Flat Handicap  for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £9704 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old filly has three wins and two runner-up finishes in her last six starts (form = 181212), winning alternate races and making herself of instant appeal to those who like numerical sequences 😉

She was less than a length behind Victory Wave last time out (15 days ago) in a Class 2 contest at Chelmsford over a mile, so she's dropping in class and trip today for her reappearance, whilst her victor from that race has since stepped up to Listed class.

She has 3 wins from 9 overall, from which the following increase her appeal today...

  • 3/4 in fields of 9 or more runners
  • 3/6 over 7f/1m
  • 2/5 in handicaps
  • 1/1 at Class 3
  • 1/1 on Good to Soft
  • and 1/2 over 7f

Danny Tudhope rode her to victory two starts ago (he wasn't on board LTO) and he has a win and a place from three starts on this filly and he arrives here in excellent form, maintaining a consistent 20%+ strike rate over the last couple months, including 6 winners from 18 over the last five days, amongst which he has 3 wins and a place from just five rides at Royal Ascot!

Regarding Mr Tudhope, much has been written (including by me!) about his record/relationship with David O'Meara, so I'm not going to plough that well-worn furrow and bore you with those figures today, but I do want to touch on one aspect of their partnership that I do keep an eye out for, as some of you might not be aware that the combo are 14 from 51 (27.5% SR) for 47.5pts (+93.1% ROI) with runners sent off at 10/1 and shorter in Fillies' handicaps on the Flat.

And of this 14/51 record, the partnership is...

  • 13/38 (34.2%) for 47.1pts (+124.1%) with runners last seen 6-30 days earlier
  • 12/38 (31.6%) for 48.5pts (+127.7%) in 3yo+ races
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 23.4pts (+129.9%) at Class 3
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 19.2pts (+213.4%) over 7f
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 17.1pts (+190.2%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 15pts (+250%) from those dropping down a class

...and if you wanted 95% of the original profits from just 55% of the bets, then those racing in 3yo+ contests after a break of 6-30 days are 11 from 28 (39.3%) for 45.2pts (+161.4% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Agincourt @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG as offered by Bet365 & Ladbrokes at 6.10pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd June 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.30 Epsom : Telecaster @ 5/1 BOG 13th at 3/1 (With leader, keen, led over 5f out, hung right and headed over 1f out, kept on under pressure)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.15 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ingleby Hollow @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f  on Good to Firm ground worth £5715 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding comes here after running without much success at Class 4 (although he did win a couple of hurdle contests over the summer, suggesting stamina wouldn't be his downfall here) and now drops back to Class 5 company for the first time since winning over 1m5f at Hamilton 11 months ago. That was off a mark of 76 under today's jockey Danny Tudhope and the drop back in class allied to a mark now 4lbs lower than that run suggests he well be weighted to score here.

He's currently 6 from 25 (24%) at Class 5, 5 from 22 (22.7%) under Danny Tudhope, 5 from 23 (21.7%) wearing a tongue tie and has a win and a place from two previous visits to this track : decent figures for an essentially Class 5 horse.

His trainer, David O'Meara, does well with this type of runner at this venue : more specifically, his Class 4/5 handicappers are 27 from 156 (17.3% SR) for 54.5pts (+34.9% ROI) backed blindly here at Thirsk since 2011. As usual, I'm not suggesting you follow the angle doggedly, so here are some ways of reducing the outlay whilst increasing both the SR and the ROI, as of the 27 winners...

  • 26 were from 137 (19%) running off marks of 67-85 giving 65.7pts at an ROI of 48%
  • 23/111 (20.7%) for 68.7pts (+61.9%) from 4-8 yr olds
  • 22/105 (20.9%) for 52.7% (+50.2%) on Good/Good to Firm ground
  • 20/91 (22%) for 60.1pts (+66.1%) from April to July
  • 18/61 (29.5%) for 64.5pts (+105.8%) ridden by Danny Tudhope
  • 17/44 (38.6%) for 25.2pts (+57.3%) sent off at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 19.8pts (+68.4%) ran 6-10 days earlier
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 30pts with one previous Thirsk win
  • and 6/22 (27.3%) for 17.4pts (+78.9%) over this 1m4f course and distance

Now, I know that some of you like me to combine some of the filters to produce a composite angle/micro-system to take forward, so I'd suggest...

...Danny Tudhope on David O'Meara's 4-8yr olds running off marks of 67-85 on Good/Good to Firm ground in Class 4/5 handicaps at Thirsk, which would give you 13 winners from 34 (38.2% SR) for 55.5pts (+163.3% ROI) : essentially reducing the original stat by 122 bets, but giving an extra point of profit! And from this 13/34 result, there are 5 winners from 7 (71.4% SR) for 27.8pts (+396.5% ROI) over the 1m4f course and distance...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Ingleby Hollow @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365, BetVictor, Black Type, SkyBet & Unibet at 6.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!