Tag Archives: DAVID LOUGHNANE

Stat of the Day, 27th November 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

2.50 Sedgefield : Tonto's Spirit @ 7/2 2nd at 6/1 (Prominent until 2nd, chased leaders, went 2nd before 2 out, no impression on winner, kept on)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.10 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stringybark Creek @ 15/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap Chase for 3yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3,752 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding was a course winner here LTO, 8 days ago when making all and staying on well to defeat our SotD pick, Kwela, by half a length over 7 furlongs at Class 4. The way he stayed on suggests an extra furlong should be fine and his quest is aided by a drop in class today.

He does however, carry a 5lb penalty for that win, but 3 of the extra 5 are accounted for by the booking of jockey Thomas Greatrex for the ride.

Trainer David Loughnane has been amongst the winners lately, landing 3 of 10 (30% SR) for 54.75pts (+547.5% ROI) over the last 10 days, including two winners from three here at Kempton, where his runners are 7 from 45 (15.6% SR) for 100.45pts (+223.2% ROI) in A/W handicaps since the start of 2017, with the following of note today...

  • 7/39 (17.9%) for 106.45pts (+272.9%) after 6-45 days off track
  • 7/38 (18.4%) for 107.45pts (+282.8%) over trips of 6f to 1m
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 104.3pts (+359.7%) from males
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 25.2pts (+193.9%) at odds of 9/2 to 10/1
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 47.78pts (+796.3%) in November...

...whilst males racing over 6f to 1m after 6 to 45 days rest are 6/21 (28.6% SR) for 112.3pts (+534.8% ROI), including 3/7 (42.9%) for 19.07pts (+272.4%) at 9/2 to 8/1, 2/5 (40%) for 48.78pts (+975.6%) in November and 1 from 1 with all the above in place.

Obviously Stringybark Creek ticks all those above boxes too and his suitability for today's task is also hopefully highlighted by looking at his career stats of 10 wins from 56 (5/19 on A/W) that include of relevance today...

  • 10/37 in fields of 9-14 runners (inc 5/17 on A/W)
  • 9/47 in handicaps (4/16 on A/W)
  • 8/31 at the age of 4 & 5 (3/12 on A/W)
  • 8/28 at 7 to 8.5 furlongs (3/12 on A/W)
  • 6/24 for David Loughnane (1/6 on A/W)
  • 6/14 at odds of 5/1 to 9/1 (2/5 on A/W)
  • 5/14 going right handed (2/5 on A/W)
  • 4/10 on Polytrack (obviously all on A/W)
  • 3/9 in Class 5 contests worth more than £3.5k (N/A on A/W)
  • 2/5 here at Kempton (all on A/W)
  • 2/3 during November/December (all on A/W)
  • and 1 from 1 in November (LTO on A/W)

...whilst based around those subsets above, Stringybark Creek is 5 from 12 (41.7% SR) for 26.5pts (+220.8% ROI) when sent off at 11/4 to 17/2 in 9-14 runner handicaps over 7 to 9.5 furlongs since the start of 2018...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Stringybark Creek @ 15/2 BOG as was offered by BetVictor & also Hills (although the latter was non-BOG until midnight) with plenty of 7/1 available elsewhere at 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.35 Haydock : Ontopoftheworld @ 7/1 BOG 7th at 9/1 (Led until 1st, led and not fluent next, headed 8th, mistake 3 out, weakened next)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.05 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £4787 to the winner... 

Why?

Our horse...

...is a 4yr old gelding who won over course and distance LTO at a higher grade 11 days ago and now comes here with a record that includes making the frame in 9 of 19 runs (47.4%) on this track, including winning four times (21% SR).

On the A/W in general, he has 5 wins and 6 places from 15 runs this year, he has 4 wins and 3 places from 11 races at this 7f trip, including 3 wins and a place from 7 efforts over course and distance and he has four wins and three places from the 8 contests that he was sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter.

Our trainer...

...is David Loughnane, whose 30-day record stands at 5 wins from 17 (29.4% SR) for 29.84pts (+175.9% ROI) profit and this includes...

  • on Tapeta : 5/11 (45.5%) for 35.84pts (+325.8%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 3/8 (37.5%) for 28.42pts (+355.3%)
  • and over 7f on Tapeta : 3/5 (60%) for 22.76pts (+455.1%)

Our jockey...

...Jason Watson has won 11 of 46 (23.9% SR) races here at Wolverhampton in the past nine months, generating level stakes profits of 37pts at an ROI of 80.4%, including...

  • at 5f to 8.5f : 11/38 (28.9%) for 45pts (+118.4%)
  • in hcps : 7/35 (20%) for 32.4pts (+92.4%)
  • at 7/1 and shorter : 10/27 (37%) for 16pts (+59.3%)
  • and at Class 5 : 6/17 (35.3%) for 8pts (+47%)

And our horse's sire...

...is Art Connoisseur, whose offspring are 6/23 (26.1% SR) for 42.9pts (+186.4% ROI) over 6/7 furlongs on Tapeta over the last two years, including...

  • in hcps : 6/22 (27.3%) for 43.9pts (+199.5%) - all males
  • at Wolves : 5/17 (29.4%) for 38.8pts (+228.1%) - all male handicappers
  • 4 yr olds are 3/7 (42.9%) for 20.7pts (+295%) - all males in Wolves hcps
  • and Class 5 male handicappers here at Wolves are 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 10.4pts (+173.2%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 4/1 BOG, as was available from pretty much everyone at 12.35am on Wednesday morning, but Bet365 were offering half a point more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out/away from my PC on Boxing Day afternoon, so Thursday's pick will appear later than usual on Wednesday night.

Stat of the Day, 15th May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

2.55 Wolverhampton : Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG 10th at 9/4 (Held up mid-division, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

We continue with Tuesday's...

4.10 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Alejandro @ 7/2 BOG

A 12-runner, Class 4,  1m½f  Flat Handicap (4yo+) on good ground worth £6553 to the winner... 

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding returned from a 12 week break to run well in third place staying on late over 7f at Chester 6 days ago and is taken to fare even better for (a) having had a run, (b) upped in trip and (c) returning to Beverley where his form reads 121 including a 1 from 1 record over course and distance.

His trainer David Loughnane is 9 from 34 (26.5% SR) for 86.7pts (+255% ROI) here at Beverley, including...

  • 8/25 (32%) for 60.1pts (+240.6%) in handicaps
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 22.6pts over this 8.5f course and distance
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 14.6pts (+243.4%) at Class 4
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 32.8pts (+1093.3%) with Ben Curtis in the saddle.

Ben, himself, seems to enjoy coming here as he's won 17 of his 80 (21.3% SR) rides here since the start of 2016 generating profits of 39.5pts (+49.3% ROI) for those backing him blindly with 3 winners from 6 950%) for 40pts (+666.6%) this year alone.

...and that's how I got to...a 1pt win bet on Alejandro @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair, Coral and Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!