Tag Archives: David Elsworth

Stat of the Day, 14th June 2019

Thursday's pick was...

4.20 Nottingham : Cent Flying @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Held up, headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, no extra well inside final furlong)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.05 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sir Dancealot @ 3/1 BOG

...in the 5-runner, Listed Ganton Stakes for 3yo+ over 1m on Good To Soft ground worth £28355 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 5 yr old gelding who, when presented with similar conditions to today, has achieved the following...

  • 7 wins from 21 (33.3% SR) in non-handicaps
  • 4 from 13 (30.8%) in non-Gr1 races at Class 1
  • 6 from 9 (66.6%) when sent off shorter than 9/2
  • 3 from 7 (42.9%) under today's jockey Gerald Mosse
  • and he has won one of his two starts here at York.

The afore-mentioned jockey Gerald Mosse is 4 from 17 (23.5% SR) here in the UK so far this month and since the start of 2011 has ridden 23 winners in UK Class 1 contests from 138 attempts. That 1 in 6 strike rate has yielded 58.2pts profit at an ROI of 42.2%, including 4 wins from 18 (22.2%) for 9.93pts (+55.2%) on horses trained by David Elsworth.

In fact, this is only the second year that the pair have teamed up, but the fledgling partnership is already worth 8 winners from 34 (23.5% SR) and 11.47pts (+33.7% ROI) profit, from which the following are relevant today...

  • 8 from 27 (29.6%) for 18.47pts (+68.4%) at 6f to 1m
  • 7 from 9 (77.8%) for 25.87pts (+287.5%) at odds of 6/4 to 5/1
  • 7 from 26 (26.9%) for 15.82pts (+60.8%) on 3-5 yr olds
  • 4 from 8 (50%) for 12.16pts (+152%) during June to August

...whilst 3-5 yr olds racing over 7f to 1m at odds of 6/4 to 5/1 during June to August are 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 16.16pts (+404% ROI), including a hat-trick of wins with Sir Dancealot last summer...

...providing us with... a 1pt win bet on Sir Dancealot @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 & BetVictor at 5.25pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th November 2016

Wednesday's Result :

1.40 Ayr : Viva Steve @ 11/4 BOG - WON at 11/8 (Made most, clear 4 out to 2 out, soon ridden, kept on well from last to win by almost 3 lengths

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.55 Chelmsford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ninety Years Young @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Fairly simple and straightforward with this one (I hope!), as this 2 yr old colt comes here off the back of a win at this venue under today's jockey a week ago. He scored by three parts of a length ridden out over 6f and he should be suited by the drop back in trip this time.

He's one of only two past winners in a field of 12 whose combined record is a paltry 3/64 and he's the only one to have won on this track prior to this contest. Since the venue re-opened, David Elsworth's runners are 4/15 (26.7% SR) for 2.75pts (+18.3% ROI) with 10 male runners providing all the winners and those priced at 9/2 and shorter are 4/6 (66.7% SR) for 11.75pts (+195.8% ROI)

In addition to the above, David Elsworth's LTO winners are 16/54 (29.6% SR) for 18.8pts (+34.8% ROI) since the start of 2015 and these 54 runners themselves are...

  • 14/39 (35.9%) for 26.56pts (+68.1%) in handicaps
  • 12/36 (33.3%) for 21.45pts (+59.6%) from males
  • 11/30 (36.7%) for 11.47pts (+38.2%) 6-20 days after their last outing
  • and 7 from 13 (53.9%) for 11.73pts (+90.2%) on the All-Weather

More generally, male handicappers who won LTO in the previous 45 days are 9/22 (40.9% SR) for 24.8pts (+112.7% ROI), with those priced shorter than 7/1 winning 8 of 14 (57.1%) for 20.87pts (+149%)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Ninety Years Young at 3/1 BOG, from Bet365 (preferred) and BetVictor, whilst there was plenty of 11/4 BOG elsewhere at 6.10pm on Wednesday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.55 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2016

Friday's Result :

4.15 Thirsk : Courier @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Raced wide, prominent, ridden to chase winner over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, not quicken towards finish)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

4.50 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bastille Day at 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 4yr old gelding is really thriving/progressing at the moment, winning four of his last seven starts and unbeaten in his last three. He has 4 wins and 2 places from 9 efforts over 8/8.5 furlongs, he's 3 from 6 in handicap company, 4 from 8 when priced at 6/1 and shorter and 3 from 5 after a break of 11 to 20 days : all of which are at play today.

In addition to that, his trainer David Elsworth is 26/189 (13.8% SR) for 83.7pts (+44.3% ROI) profit on the July course since 2009, of which the following are of relevant interest today...

  • those with less than 25 career runs are 24/169 (14.2%) for 89.5pts (+52.9%)
  • handicappers are 15/100 (15%) for 38.3pts (+38.3%)
  • those last seen 6 to 20 days ago are 15/54 (17.9%) for 47.1pts (+56.1%)
  • in fields of 8-10 runners : 11/57 (19.3%) for 63.3pts (+111.1%)
  • 4/5 yr olds are 6/27 (22.2%) for 32pts (+118.5%)
  • and those running at Class 3 are 5/25 (20%) for 4.5pts (+18%)

...and so, the call is a 1pt win bet on Bastille Day at 9/2 BOG which was pretty universally available at 1.40am (I know! Don't ask!), but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2016

Tuesday's Result :

4.15 Brighton : Dltripleseven @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Keen, tracked leader, joined leader over 4f out, ridden and every chance 2f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

6.50 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bastille Day at 3/1 BOG

Why?

Despite running three weeks ahead of the official Bastille Day, I'm hoping that David Elsworth's charge can give me something to celebrate on my first day back in the SotD hotseat.

This 4yr old gelding comes here with a 2 from 3 record on this track, with all three runs coming over this 1m trip with his latest run being a course and distance win at Class 3 some 20 days ago. His two previous C&D wins have come after 20 and 26 days rest, so today seems the ideal time for him to go again, especially dropping down in class.

This drop in class is a ploy that has proved successful for Mr Elsworth in recent years, especially if there's any sniff of money around for his horses, as since the start of 2011, his handicap class droppers priced at 13/8 to 11/2 have won 13 of 40 (32.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 23.8pts at an ROI of 59.5%.

Of those 40 runners, the following are of interest today...

  • those dropping 1 class are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 12.8pts (+40% ROI)
  • 4yr olds are 4/10 (40% SR) for 6.97pts (+69.7% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners are 5/9 (55.6% SR) for 15.56pts (+172.9% ROI)
  • those running at Kempton are 3/6 (50% SR) for 8pts (+133.3% ROI)
  • and those who ran at Class 3 LTO are 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 12.4pts (+310% ROI)

...so today's play is a 1pt win bet on Bastille Day at 3/1 BOG with either of Coral or BetVictor, who were the market leaders at 7.20pm. For the other firms' prices, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.50 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 15th July 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th July 2014

Dinneratmidnight gave us a great start to the week with a win at Lingfield on Monday evening. Despite being scrubbed along from a fair way out, the penny suddenly dropped and a nice rhythm was found. He hit the front with a furlong to run and eased himself home by a length.

The icing on the cake came as we grabbed an extra half point above the 3/1 SP, thanks to taking 7/2 overnight. I know, from your emails/messages, that some of you got on at 4/1 in the afternoon, which was brilliant news. If you can constantly beat SP, you really can't fail to make profits as long as you're disciplined and patient.

I now look to keep the ball rolling with a trip to the seaside for Tuesday's...

8.20 Yarmouth: 

And by my usual verbose standards, a fairly short and sweet piece about David Elsworth and his 3 yr old filly Swiss Lait, who might look a bit of a punt at 10/1 BOG with Paddy Power, but I feel she's overpriced and is worth an E/W bet.

David Elsworth is one of the trainers to consistently churn out profits over the last few years in flat handicap races. Since the start of the 2011 season, he has saddled up 32 winners from 226 runners (14.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 63.6pts at an ROI of 28.1%.

If we disregarded the 33 losing runners priced above 16/1 we are left with a record reading 32 from 193 (16.6% SR) for 96.6pts (+50.1% ROI), which are very healthy figures indeed. More reassurance for E/W punters comes via a 38.4% place strike rate.

It's also interesting to note that from the 32/193 record above, those horses that were running at an OR ranging from 6lbs lower than last time out to no more than 1lb higher, won 22 of 123 (17.9% SR) races with the resultant 98.7pts profit equating to a whopping 80.2% of stakes.

Swiss Lait is one of the lesser exposed runners in this field, with only four previous starts to her name, the best run of which came last time out on her handicap debut. She was beaten by 6.5 lengths that day and finished 4th of 8 runners, but in her defence she did miss the break and conceded at least much ground at the start. She recovered well and made steady progress, staying on well and doing her best work in the latter stages.

She should come on for that run three weeks ago and if she gets away cleaner this time, has more than a reasonable chance at a big price here. She is also eased a couple of pounds in the ratings which is sure to help, as is a drop in class. Basically, the overall race conditions should be much more to her liking and she wouldn't have to improve too much to make the frame.

The drop in class is also of note/interest here. When David Elsworth has dropped horses in lass over the last four years, he has a 25% strike rate (10 from 40) with those sent off at 12/1 or shorter and these winners have produced level stakes profits of 33.3pts or 83.4% of stakes.

All told, here's enough there to grab my attention to the extent that I'm happy to stake 0.5pts E/W on Swiss Lait at 10/1 BOG with Paddy Power. I fully expect that price to contract, so please...

...click here for the latest betting on the 8.20 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

 

Stat of the Day, 5th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th May 2014

A nice winner on Saturday was the perfect way to round off an excellent week, as Silk Sari came home in some style/comfort easing clear in the final furlong to win by over two lengths without being too troubled.

She ran like the 15/8 SP favourite that she was sent off at and despite a Rule 4 deduction taking a whole 25% of our winnings, we were still paid out at 15/4 BOG, exactly double the SP!

It's Bank Holiday Monday and the sun is shining (where I am, at least!) and there's lots of racing on offer. Unfortunately it looks like a case of quantity over quality and has the hallmarks of a typical Monday, but more of it! There's not a lot jumping out at me on the stats front, but I do have one with a chance if things go right in the...

5.20 Windsor:

Which is a Class 4 handicap over 11.5f on good to soft ground and David Elsworth drops the consistent Flemish School down in class in a bid to get her back into the winners' enclosure.

1. David Elsworth has a good recent record in handicap contests on the Flat and has a record of 27 winners from the 152 runners priced at 12/1 or shorter in the last three seasons. This 17.8% strike rate is more than respectable and has generated level stakes profits of 68.3pts or 44.93% of stakes invested.

2. He also has a decent record at Windsor too and if you'd backed every one of his 185 runners to have appeared here in the past, the 25 winners would not only have given you a 13.5% strike rate, but you would also have profited to the tune of 38.25pts, a return of 20.7% oof your stake money.

And whilst the strike rate in handicaps here at Windsor is pretty similar at 13.6% (14 winners from 103), the profits and subsequent ROI are greater at 38.76pts and 37.6% respectively. From this, the best results come in the 6/1 or under region, where we normally play, where you could have had 11 winners from 42 (26.2% SR) for 23pts (+54.8% ROI) profit.

3. Over the last three seasons, David has enjoyed some success when dropping horses in class and of those class droppers priced at 12/1 or under, the record reads 9 winners from 38 (23.7% SR) for 30.4pts (+79.9% ROI) profit, whilst at 6/1 or under, the figures are 6/22 (27.3% SR) for 10.1pts (+46% ROI) profit.

Flemish School may have only won one race to date, but has only failed to finish outside the first three home in one of her last nine races and whilst she has never competed over today's fairly unusual 11.5f trip, her record at 12 furlongs reads 222 with all three defeats coming by less than a length and a half and all three looking like she had nothing left to give late on. It's only a 100 yards or so shorter than those races here today, but that could well make all the difference late on for her.

Her sole victory to date was three runs ago, when wearing cheekpieces for the first (and only) time and they are being reapplied today in a bid to just get a little bit more from her in the closing stages, whilst the booking of William Buick is a positive sign for me here. William was one of the more successful jockeys at this track last season, winning on seven of his twenty-four starts at 8/1 or shorter, with that 29.2% strike rate yielding 21.15pts (+88.1% ROI) profit.

I've been more confident about other picks of late, but I think there could still be some value in a 1pt win bet on Flemish School at 7/2 BOG. That price is pretty widely available and I'm going with BetVictor today, but I strongly advise you to...

...click here for the latest betting on the 5.20 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 16th August 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th August 2012

It was like taking candy from a baby yesterday, as SdS did all I hoped he would: stalked the pace and quickened two out. After that, they were never getting Aliante and she won by three lengths going away. 4/1 was a surprise and a nice bonus too! 🙂

Less straightforward today, but another wagering friend of mine over at HQ in the…

2.40 Newmarket

David Elsworth has long been a man to follow at Newmarket, especially on the July course. And that's hardly surprising given that he has his own all weather gallop right next door to the July strip in Newmarket!

His handicappers on the July course have recorded figures of eight from 33 in the last two seasons for an SP profit of fifty points!

Tonight he runs one in a handicap, and Odin looks to have a very good each way chance.

It's a ten furlong contest, Class 4, on good to firm ground.

Last time out, Odin ran second in a Class 3 course and distance handicap on good ground. He was beaten a length and, two runs previously, he'd won a ten furlong handicap on good to firm (albeit in lower class).

So our 'man' goes on the ground, at the track, over the trip, and is dropped in class.

There have been non-runners already, reducing the field to nine, and the price is dropping on Odin. I backed him at 9/1 BOG with bet365 just now, and that is still available. Alternatively, you can get 10/1 (not best odds guaranteed) with Stan James.

Each way, Odin.

Click here for the latest odds for the 2.40 Newmarket.

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2012

Stat of the Day 09/07

Stat of the Day 09/07

Stat of the Day: 9th July 2012

No play yesterday for SotD as Kirkhammerton was just one of a large number of withdrawals across the programme. So, we've kept our powder dry and we'll use yesterday's stake on what might seem a speculative punt today!

Monday evenings mean Windsor, so we we're heading to Royal Berkshire this evening for a Class 4 Handicap for 3 yr olds. Nine runners are set to go to post as we tackle the...

7.10 Windsor

Monday's racing on the whole is largely uninspiring stuff and today is no exception, but a closer inspection of trainers' place strike rates gives us an opportunity today.

David Elsworth's record in handicap races in July from 2010 to today reads: 13 wins from 40 with 6 other horses placed: a win strike rate of  32.5% and a place strike rate of 47.5%, which shows us that he generally has his string in good nick at this time of year. If we look at his record at Windsor specifically over the same period, we see that he has managed to get 13 of 25 runners into the frame for a place strike rate of 52%.

With these figures in mind, we set about finding a likely placer for today and we discover, in true SotD form that mr Elsworth only has the one runner at the track this evening: Monymusk.

Monymusk isn't the world's greatest by any stretch of the imagination, but this contest looks wide open and carrying the bottom weight of 8-11 might just tip things in our favour. He did show some signs of ability in a couple of maidens earlier, before running well last time out here at Windsor, before he was badly hampered, ending any chances he might have had that day.

Monymusk is a speculative one today and this is reflected in the current best price of 20/1 BOG with Paddy Power and/or Betfred. I've taken 0.5pts E/W at that price, but feel free to wait, come back and...

Click here for the latest odds for the 7.10 Windsor.