Tag Archives: Dan Skelton

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

2.55 Catterick : Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 10/3 (Led until slow 5th, soon ridden, led 8th, headed before 3 out, one pace)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2,05 Ludlow:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 2, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m on soft ground worth £16,458 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, we're with the Skeltons today and their 6 yr old gelding who was won 7 of his last 10 outings and is 9 from 20 in his entire career, including 3 from 5 over fences and...

  • 8 from 16 with Harry in the saddle
  • 8 from 10 in fields of 3-8 runners
  • 7 from 16 over trips shorter than 2m1f
  • and 7 from 13 at 11-35 days since last run.

He has won on soft ground and also over course and distance and in fact won on soft over C&D last time out, when comfortably clear by nine lengths! And referring back to the above numbers, he is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 3.62pts (+60.4% ROI) when Harry rides him in fields of 3-8 runners over trips shorter than 2m1f at 11-35 dslr.

Both Harry and trainer Dan have good records here at Ludlow, but (a) that's fairly common knowledge and (b) it's actually highlighted on your race card via the green C1 and C5 icons, so I won't go there today.

Instead I'm going to focus on the fact that since 2014, Dan's former C&D winners sent off within 45 days of an LTO win anywhere are 19 from 41 (46.3% SR) for 11.23pts (+27.4% ROI) at odds of 6/1 and shorter, from which, they are...

  • 19/38 (50%) for 14.23pts (+37.5%) with Harry in the saddle
  • 18/34 (52.9%) for 17.08pts (+50.2%) who won over C&D LTO
  • 16/28 (57.1%) for 10.75pts (+38.4%) since the start of 2017
  • 16/26 (61.5%) for 21.01pts (+80.8%) with 5-7 yr olds
  • 11/25 (44%) for 10.67pts (+42.7%) in handicaps
  • 9/14 (64.3%) for 7.9pts (+56.4%) over fences
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 2.46pts (+22.4%) stepping up a class
  • and 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.61pts (+108.7%) on soft ground...

...whilst when Harry has ridden the 5-7 yr old LTO C&D winners from above since the start of 2017, they are 13/16 (81.25% SR) for 17.53pts (+109.6% ROI) and these include 8 from 10 in handicaps, 8 from 8 over fences, 4 from 5 stepping up a class, 4 from 4 in handicap chases and 2 from 2 on soft ground...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Unibet at 5.25pm on Monday. Do use BOG if possible, as this one might drift a little, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th March 2019

Friday's pick was...

3.05 Lingfield : Warrior's Valley @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Pressed winner, outpaced 2f out, driven and stayed on inside final furlong, just held near finish, beaten by a neck)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.05 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Zamparelli 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on Good ground worth £4494 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding was a winner over 3m0.5f in another Class 4 contest when last seen at Market Rasen 16 days ago and is now 3 from 8 over fences, including 3 from 4 after a break of 16-30 days and 2 from 6 at this grade.

He became of further interest to me when popping up on my Dan Skelton chasers micro-system, where I look for Class 3-5 handicap chasers sent of at odds of 11/10 to 11/1, because such runners are 108 from 458 (23.6% SR) for 71.4pts (+15.6% ROI). Of course, I'm not suggesting you back all of them, but it's a good starting point.

To help narrow down the number of bets, the following logical angles are at play today...

  • males are 97/414 (23.4%) for 71.6pts (+17.3%)
  • in races worth less than £8,000 : 93/360 (25.8%) for 82.9pts (+23%)
  • those ridden by Harry Skelton are 85/355 (23.9%) for 45.6pts (+12.9%)
  • from March to November : 90/349 (25.8%) for 88.7pts (+25.4%)
  • since the start of 2017 : 62/239 (25.9%) for 77.7pts (+32.5%)
  • on Good ground : 65/232 (28%) for 85.4pts (+36.8%)
  • those returning from a short 16-30 day break are 46/168 (27.4%) for 74.4pts (+44.3%)
  • 7 yr olds are 29/90 (32.20%) for 65.6pts (+72.9%)
  • whilst those racing over trips of 2m7.5f to 3m1.5f are 22/78 (28.2%) for 46.5pts (+59.6%)

...and if you just wanted around 25 bets a year from an angle, then...

...2016-19 / March to August / males ridden by Harry Skelton / races worth £8k or less = 27/81 (33.3% SR) for 42.4pts (+52.4% ROI), including 22 from 60 (36.7%) for 40.2pts (+67%) on Good ground.

More generally, aside from the trainer's excellent numbers above...since the start of 2013 in UK Class 4 handicap chases, males sent off at 8/1 or shorter within 3 weeks of winning another Class 4 handicap chase LTO are 62 from 212 (29.3% SR) for 52.2pts (+24.6% ROI), including 14 from 40 (35%) for 36.8pts (+92%) since the start of 2018...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Zamparelli 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 5.05 Uttoxeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th November 2018

Monday's Pick was...

6.30 Kempton : Darksideoftarnside @ 3/1 BOG 6th at 11/4 (Tracked leader until 10f out, close up, pushed along over 2f out, soon weakened) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.00 Fakenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Too Much Too Soon @ 11/4 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, Selling Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m5f on Good To Firm ground worth £4159 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 9 yr old gelding who has been in decent form over fences this season and now takes a drop in class, as he reverts to the smaller obstacles at a venue his yard has fared well at in the past.

In fact, trainer Dan Skelton's runners sent off at odds of 6/1 and shorter are 17 from 53 (32.1% SR) for 12.36pts (+23.3% ROI) here at Fakenham and with today's contest in mind, those 53 runners are...

  • 16/46 (34.8%) for 15.84pts (+34.4%) in the October -April period
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 11.47pts (+33.7%) over trips of 2m to 2m5f
  • 9/30 (30%) for 4.37pts (+14.6%) over hurdles
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 11.02pts (+52.5%) since the start of 2017
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 2.31pts (+15.4%) from those who last raced 11-20 days earlier
  • and 2 from 3 (66.6% plus a runner-up) for 3.91pts (+130.4%) from hurdlers whose previous race was over fences.

...and from the above... Dan Skelton + Fakenham + 6/1 and shorter + 2016-18 + October-April + hurdles + 2m to 2m5f = 6/16 (37.5% SR) for 6.16pts (+38.5% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Too Much Too Soon @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Monday evening, whilst there was an extra quarter point available with Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Fakenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th October 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.00 Catterick : Chitra @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Tracked leader, ridden to challenge over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, just held near finish by a short head)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Excellent Team @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Good To Firm ground worth £6563 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding's record of 3 wins and a place from 22 starts in handicap hurdle contests isn't admittedly the best, but he did win this contest last year off the same mark (108) as this year under the same jockey, Bridget Andrews, who claims a 3lb allowance. And like last year he reappears 12 days after a defeat at Worcester on softer ground than this contest.

Whilst that 3+1/22 record isn't amazing, it does look better under today's conditions, where he is...

  • 3+1 from 12 off a mark of 101 to 110
  • 2+ 1 from 10 over this 2m trip
  • 2 from 5 on good to firm ground
  • 2 from 5 racing 8 to 12 days after his last run
  • 1 from 4 at Ludlow
  • 1 from 4 over course and distance

He's trainer Dan Skelton's only runner at this track today and since 2014, Dan's Class 4 hurdlers have won 16 of 54 (29.6% SR) for 13.7pts (+25.4% ROI) here at Ludlow and these include...

  • males at 12/41 (29.3%) for 13.66pts (+33.3%)
  • at 10/1 and shorter : 16/39 (41%) for 28.7pts (+73.6%)
  • over 1m7.5f/2m : 10/36 (27.8%) for 8.06pts (+22.4%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 13/34 (38.2%) for 23.61pts (+69.5%)
  • in handicaps : 5/15 (3.3%) for 8.34pts (+55.6%)
  • off a mark of 105-115 : 5/8 (62.5%) for 13.47pts (+168.4%)
  • runner-up LTO : 5/7 (71.4%) for 6.05pts (+86.4%)
  • in October : 2/6 (33.3%) for 6.29pts (+104.8%)
  • and his only runner at the track : 2/3 (66.6%) for 11.36pts (+378.7%)

And from the above...males racing over 1m7.5f/2m at odds of 10/1 and shorter some 11-45 days after their last run are 9 from 17 (52.9% SR) for 25.4pts (+149.4% ROI) including Excellent Team's win in this race last year.

I do like to look for in-form course and distance winners, because since the start of 2013 in handicap hurdles, horses with the little CD logo next to their name who either won or lost by no more than 2 lengths LTO are 254 from 1126 (22.6% SR) for 220.2pts (+19.6% ROI), from which of note today...

  • 11-60 days since last run : 184/840 (21.9%) for 178.2pts (+21.2%)
  • runner-up LTO : 39/152 (25.7%) for 85.3pts (+56.1%)
  • runners-up 11-25 days earlier are 17/63 (27%) for 44.4pts (+70.4%)
  • here at Ludlow : 10/27 (37%) for 37.1pts (+137.3%)
  • and at Ludlow 11-20 days after their last run : 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.05pts (+122.7%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Excellent Team @ 3/1 BOG, a price widely available from 6.30pm on Tuesday evening.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th October 2018

Friday's Pick was...

7.45 Wolverhampton : Barnaby Brook @ 10/3 BOG 8th at 20/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out) - something clearly amiss here, this was never a stone last 20/1 shot.

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Notnow Seamus @ 10/3 BOG  

In a 7-runner, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m3f on Good ground, worth £9495 to the winner... 

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has finished 11121 in his last 5 runs, all in handicap hurdle contests (1121 under today's jockey Harry Skelton) and whilst this is a tougher assignment, he's in imperious form as demonstrated by his win LTO at Uttoxeter 24 days ago, when he cruised home by 18 lengths, unchallenged and unextended.

The Dan/Harry Skelton angle is a well worn path that continues to bear fruit and I've mentioned it often enough that you're probably sick of seeing the numbers. So, I'll take it on trust that you're happy to proceed with my repeating the figures and we'll find some other angles to back up our selection.

Let's start with the sire, Notnowcato, as his offspring are 34/166 (20.5% SR) over hurdles since the start of 2015 and backed blindly to a £10 stake have generated £1081.10 profit at Betfair SP after an assumed 5% commission at an ROI of 65.1%. This alone is an excellent starting point, any blind approach that pays well is good!

Amongst those 166 runners of relevance today...

  • males are 31/154 (201.1%) for 103.1pts (+66.9%)
  • over trips of 2m5f and shorter : 31/126 (24.6%) for 122.7pts (+97.4%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 18/98 (18.4%) for 83.1pts (+84.8%)
  • on Good ground : 19/60 (31.7%) for 63.4pts (+105.6%)
  • during the final third of the year (Sept-Dec) : 17/58 (29.3%) for 105.8pts (+182.4%)
  • in 2018 so far : 11/34 (32.4%) for 35.2pts (+103.5%)
  • 7/8 yr olds are 6/26 (23.1%) for 8.85pts (+34%)
  • and those rated (OR) 140 to 149 are 8 from 9 (88.9%) for 23.24pts (+258.2%)

The horse is also of interest to me because I do like to back runners who won pretty comfortably last out and Notnow Seamus was flagged up as a qualifier for a microsystem of mine that looks far more complicated in print than it is in application! Basically it revolves around 5-11 yr olds who won a handicap hurdle LTO by more than 4 lengths.

Such runners are 192 from 597 (32.1% SR) for 181.3pts (+30.4% ROI) since the start of 2013 when the following (and here's where it gets a little more complex!) conditions have been met...UK hcp hurdle race / trip of 3m or shorter / Class 2 to 5 / an OR increased by 0 to 14lbs from LTO / same class or up by 1 from LTO / same trip or down by 0.5 to 2 furlongs from LTO... And with today's race in mind, those 597 qualifiers are...

  • Up by 1 class : 59/251 (23.5%) for 33.2pts (+13.2%)
  • Won by 10 to 20 lengths LTO : 48/130 (36.9%) for 62.8pts (+48.3%)
  • Those dropping back in trip by 1f are 28/86 (32.6%) for 25.9pts (+30.2%)
  • at Class 2 : 16/55 (29.1%) for 22.1pts (+40.2%)
  • at this 2m3f trip : 9/33 (27.3%) for 9.64pts (+29.2%)
  • and those with a mark (OR) raised 12lbs from LTO are 10/29 (34.5%) for 25.2pts (+87%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Notnow Seamus @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 5.55pm on Friday evening and still readily available at 10.00am on Saturday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

5.15 Doncaster : Muatadel @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Prominent, lost place when ridden 2f out, hampered 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, not reach leaders)

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.55 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Notnow Seamus 11/4 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has won three of his last six starts and comes here on a hat-trick after a course and distance success here at Uttoxeter under today's jockey in this grade 26 days ago, taking his hurdling record to include the following...

  • 3/6 on good ground, 3/6 going left handed, 3/5 in handicaps
  • 3/5 at Class 4, 3/5 without his hood, 3/4 within 30 days of his last run
  • 2/4 with a tongue tie, 2/3 in fields of 8-11 runners, 2/2 at 2m4f/2m4.5f
  • 1/1 here at Uttoxeter, 1/1 over C&D

Whilst over the last 30 days...

  • trainer Dan Skelton is 20/57 (35.1% SR)
  • jockey Harry Skelton is 20/54 (37.0% SR)
  • and together they are 20/54 (37.0% SR)

...and over the past fortnight...

  • trainer Dan is 9/29 (31% SR)
  • jockey Harry is 9/27 (33.3% SR)
  • and together they are 9/27 (33.3% SR)

...and here at Uttoxeter since the start of 2015...

  • Dan is 41/134 (30.6% SR) for 51.6pts (+38.5% ROI)
  • Harry is 43/107 (40.2% SR) for 111.9pts (+104.6% ROI)
  • and together they are 40/94 (42.6% SR) for 89.5pts (+95.2% ROI)

...and of these 94 runners...

  • from May to September : 35/80 (43.8%) for 77.1pts (+96.3%)
  • in handicaps : 27/67 (40.3%) for 80.42pts (+120%)
  • at Class 4/5 : 33/72 (45.8%) for 75.77pts (+105.2%)
  • on Good ground : 27/60 (45%) for 73.2pts (+122%)
  • over hurdles : 25/53 (47.2%) for 78.8pts (+148.7%)
  • 7-9 yr olds are 21/44 (47.7%) for 79.2pts (+180%)
  • and LTO winners are 17/30 (56.7%) for 24.6pts (+82.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Notnow Seamus 11/4 BOGa price available from BetVictor, Boylesports, Coral & Ladbrokes at 8.50pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Uttoxeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th June 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.15 Brighton : Strictly Carter @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Close up, ridden and headway over 1f out, soon every chance, one pace final furlong)

Next up is Wednesday's...

2.20 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Get Ready Freddy @ 4/1 BOG

An 11-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase  for 5yo+ over 2m½f  on Good ground worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?

Well, we have an 8 yr old gelding with 3 wins and a place from his seven previous attempts over the larger obstacles, including...

  • 3 wins & a place from 6 at trips of 2m to 2m1f
  • 3 wins & a place from 5 in handicaps
  • 2 wins & a place from 4 for trainer Dan Skelton
  • 2 wins & a place from 4 for jockey Harry Skelton
  • 2 wins & a place from 4 wearing a tongue tie
  • 1 from 2 here at Worcester
  • 1 from 2 over course and distance

The yard is in decent form too with 18 winners from 67 (26.9% SR) over the last 30 days returning level stakes profits of 9.42pts at an ROI of 14.1%, from which...

  • Harry has ridden 17 winners from 59 (28.8%) for 4.54pts (+7.7%)
  • handicappers are 14/52 (26.9%) for 14.8pts (+28.5%)
  • chasers are 8/23 (34.8%) for 4.63pts (+20.1%)
  • and Harry is 7/21 (33.3%) for 5.3pts (+25.2%) on handicap chasers

...whilst more long-term, since the start of 2015 Dan Skelton's chasers are 9 from 34 (26.5% SR) for 25.4pts (+74.8% ROI) here at Worcester and these include of relevance today...

  • 7 winners from 29 (24.1%) for 25pts (+86.2%) with Harry in the saddle
  • 4 from 17 (23.5%) for 18.7pts (+109.7%) at Class 4
  • and 5 from 12 (41.7%) for 11.5pts (+95.9%) over this course and distance...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Get Ready Freddy @ 4/1 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th January 2018

Tuesday's Result :

3.00 Ludlow: Tb Broke Her @ 7/2 BOG WON at 4/1 Held up towards rear, not fluent 9th, headway on outside 17th, ridden before 4 out, left in lead 2 out, stayed on, clear towards finish to win by five lengths....

Next up is Thursday's...

1.30 Catterick:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Workbench @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m on Soft ground worth £8,058 to the winner...

Why?

Well, he might be 10 yrs old now, but this well-related (brother to Class 1 winners Sprinter Sacre, Saint Are & Dame Rose) gelding is still running well and has won two of his last five starts, including a win last time out 34 days ago wearing today's blinkers for the first time.

His trainer Dan Skelton had an excellent year last year with his chasers and since the start of 2017, those runners are 56/208 (26.9% SR) for 53pts (+25.5% ROI), including...

  • those ridden by Harry Skelton : 45/156 (28.9%) for 65.5pts (+42%)
  • after a rest of 3 weeks or more : 40/140 (28.6%) for 75.2pts (+53.7%)
  • over trips shorter than 2m2f : 22/67 (32.8%) for 37.5pts (+56%)
  • at Class 3 : 17/55 (30.9) for 24.6pts (+44.8%)
  • on soft ground : 15/44 (34.1%) for 7pts (+15.8%)

AND...from the above : those ridden by Harry Skelton over trips shorter than 2m2f after a rest of 3 weeks or more = 14/38 (36.8% SR) for 41.8pts (+109.9% SR), of which Class 3 runners are 5/14 (35.7%) for 17.74pts (+126.7%).

PLUS...more long-term, based on today's race conditions, Dan Skelton has the following strike rates....

  • 30.4% here at Catterick over the last 3 years (7 from 23)
  • 23% from LTO winners over the last 5 years (99 from 431)
  • 18.9% from those racing over trips shorter than 2m2f (209 from 1104)

Dan's LTO winners racing over trips shorter than 2m2f have a 26.1% strike rate (49 from 188), whilst more generally, 10 yr old chasers from the sire Network are 5/15 (33.3% SR) for 15.7pts (+104.7% ROI)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Workbench @ 7/2 BOG which was widely on offer with BetVictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th December 2017

Friday's Result :

3.20 Doncaster : Midnight Glory @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 15/8  Tracked leaders on inside, effort to challenge 3 out, ridden before next, kept on and every chance until no extra approaching last

Next up is Saturday's...

3.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Virgilio @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m on Good ground worth £15,640 to the winner...

And an 8 yr old gelding with 9 top 3 finishes from 13 starts to date, including 6 wins and in those 13 races, he is...

  • 6/11 in fields of 1-11 runners (3/5 in chases)
  • 6/11 going left handed (3/6 in chases)
  • 6/9 at odds of 6/1 & shorter (3/5 in chases)
  • 3/8 over fences
  • 3/7 within 6 weeks of his last run (2/5 in chases)
  • 3/6 on Good ground (2/5 in chases)
  • 4/5 at Class 2 (2/3 in chases)
  • 3/5 in fields of 8 to 11 (1/2 in chases)
  • 3/3 in this grade (1/1 in chases)

And he's trained by Dan Skelton, whose handicap chasers priced at 7/2 to 12/1 over trips of 2m1.5f to 3m1f are 27/176 (15.3% SR) for 21.2pts (+12.1% ROI) including...

  • those last seen 11-60 days ago : 23/131 (17.6%) for 34.5pts (+26.4%)
  • on Good ground : 15/76 (19.7%) for 24.2pts (+31.8%)
  • in the October-December period : 13/76 (17.1%) for 30.8pts (+40.5%)
  • 8 yr olds are 8/41 (19.5%) for 14.4pts (+35.1%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Virgilio @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 8.15pm on Friday with plenty of acceptable 9/2 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th December 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.00 Lingfield : Attain @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, not quicken inside final furlong

Next up is Thursday's...

3.15 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Workbench @ 11/2 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m2.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £8,862 to the winner...

And a 9 yr old gelding in decent nick, having won two of his last five starts including a win last time out at Sandown 6 days ago in this grade.

Now he's trained by Dan Skelton and almost inevitably ridden by Harry Skelton and over the 6 years of SotD, I've lost track of the number of times I've advised you to keep an eye on this pair, so in the interests of brevity and/or sanity, I'll not bore you by repeating myself!

One angle about the Skelton "boys", I might not have mentioned previously (or recently anyway!) however, is this quite relevant one...

...Dan + Harry + Males + Top 4 finish LTO 4-15 days earlier + April to December = 36/102 (35.3% SR) for 12.34pts (+12.1% ROI) when sent off at odds of 7/1 and shorter. So, basically males turned back out fairly quickly after a decent run and not now considered a longshot.

Of these 102 qualifiers...

  • LTO winners are 20/50 (40%) for 1.79pts (+3.6%), tending to get well backed, so we need our early prices!
  • chasers are 15/40 (37.5%) for 10.13pts (+25.3%)
  • over trips of 2m1.5f to 2m4.5f : 16/37 (43.2%) for 21.48pts (+58.1%)
  • 8/9 yr olds are 10/25 (40%) for 8.41pts (+33.6%)
  • and on Good to Soft ground : 6/17 (35.3%) for 5.46pts (+32.1%)

Whilst more generally, in handicap chases, 9 & 10 yr olds priced at 15/8 to 13/2 within 7 days of their last run are 106/419 (25.3% SR) for 90.2pts (+21.5% ROI) since 2009, from which...

  • over trips of 2m to 2.75m : 81/225 (29.5%) for 101.6pts (+36.9%)
  • LTO winners are 35/120 (29.2%) for 42.6pts (+35.5%)
  • and LTO winners racing over 2m to 2.75m : 25/81 (30.9%) for 35.6pts (+44%)

..giving us... a 1pt win bet on Workbench @ 11/2 BOG which was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.30pm on Wednesday, with plenty of acceptable 5/1 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!