Tag Archives: Chester racecourse

Stat of the Day, 31st August 2019

Friday's pick was...

5.15 Thirsk : My Ukulele @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 3/1 (Held up, pushed along 3f out, ridden over 1f out, not trouble leaders)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oh This Is Us @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good ground worth £28,012 to the winner...

Why?...

Top weight drawn wide (stall 6) over 7.5f at Chester just a week after finishing down the field at Goodwood? Surely not, I hear some cry.

Yes, he was 9th of 12 a week ago, but was unlucky in not getting a run and was still only beaten by two lengths in a bit of a scrambled finish. And if we look at this very race last year, Oh This Is Us was drawn out in stall 9 conceding weight all round, a week after finishing 6th of 8, beaten by 2.5 lengths at Goodwood, yet managed to win quite cosily in the end off a mark 3lbs higher than today.

His career record stands at 11/45 (24.4% SR) for 34.14pts (+75.9% ROI), from which the following are relevant today...

  • 11 wins, 7 places from 39 over 7-8 furlongs
  • 8 wins, 5 places from 20 at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 8 wins, 3 places from 18 in handicaps
  • 7 wins, 6 places from 18 going left handed
  • 7 wins, 4 places from 18 at Class 2
  • 6 wins, 5 places from 23 off a mark of 101-110
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 15 on Good ground
  • 2 wins and a place from three here at Chester
  • 2 wins from within a week of his last run
  • and 1 from 1 over 7.5f (C&D in this race last year)

His trainer Richard Hannon is 7 from 22 (31.8% SR) for 12.91pts (+58.7% ROI) here on the Roodee over the past two seasons, including of note/relevance today...

  • 7/11 (63.6%) for 23.91pts (+217.4%) within a fortnight of their last run
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 6.51pts (+40.7%) at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 8.51pts (+60.8%) with horses unplaced last time out
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 13.33pts (+78.4%) on Good ground
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 14.14pts (+201.9%) at Class 2
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) for 6.18pts (+157%) for prizes worth £20-30k

...from which those sent off shorter than 6/1 within a fortnight of being unplaced LTO are 6 from 8 (75% SR) for 14.51pts (+181.4% ROI), including Oh This Is Us' two wins and a place from three visits here...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Oh This Is Us @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 6.20pm on Friday.. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2019

Friday's pick was...

7.10 Newmarket : Baba Ghanouj @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Held up in touch in last trio, not clear run and switched right 2f out, headway under pressure to press leading pair 1f out, kept on well)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gabrial The Saint @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on good ground worth £11828 to the winner...

Why?...

Horses for courses this time, as well as a well known owner for this particular course. Marwan Koukash notoriously loves a Roodee winner, and he's doubly represented in this five furlong sprint. *Watch your bets alert*

While Gabrial The Devil may be marginally preferred in the early betting skirmishes, it is the course form of Gabrial The SAINT that appeals on a fiendish Saturday.

A winner of three of his 15 turf starts, two of them have come at this tight bullring track, from just seven runs.

Looking specifically at handicap course form, he's a string of 1241.

Interestingly, for a son of crack sprinter Society Rock out of a mare by Compton Place (another fine sprinter), he's only had three tries at the minimum. The sole spin over five at Chester resulted in victory in similar Class 3 company.

Let's underpin the horse for course form with a draw stat: inside stalls have a famous advantage over the Chester minimum. Gabrial The SAINT has trap three and, while not the quickest starter, the good - possibly good to soft - ground should enable him to stalk and pounce after the cutaway in the straight.

Interestingly, Richard Fahey runs him back within a week, an approach he deploys with a good amount of success for such a volume trainer. In the last two years, he's run 96 horses within a week of their prior start, 22 of them winning (23%, +14.62, A/E 1.29, IV 1.59).

It's a very competitive race, with 'the Good Doctor' (and his trainer) cheering three of the 13 runners, but in spite of that there are reasons to believe this lad is somewhat over-priced...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gabrial The SAINT @ 7/1 BOG as was available at 5,.30pm on Friday with bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th June 2019

Friday's pick was...

2.00 Yarmouth : Scale Force @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Led, ridden and headed over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Super Kid @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4½f on Good ground worth £6404 to the winner... 

Why?...

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding who was a course and distance winner last time out a fortnight ago taking his career tally to 4 wins from 34. This, admittedly, isn't a great record, but his four wins do include...

  • all 4 in fields of 6-12 runners
  • all 4 going left handed
  • 3 in June/July
  • 2 at 1m4f/1m4.5f
  • 2 at Class 4
  • 2 wearing a tongue tie
  • 1 here at Chester (that LTO C&D win)

His trainer Tim Easterby is no stranger to this track and its winners enclosure either, saddling up 12 winners from 69 handicaps (17.4% SR) here over the last three (inc. the one) seasons that have rewarded punters with 34.7pts (+50.3% ROI) profit backed blindly, which isn't a bad starting point.

Refinements to the above available today include...

  • 12/62 (19.4%) for 41.68pts (+67.2%) in fields of 7-13 runners
  • 10/62 (16.1%) for 32.7pts (+52.8%) from male runners
  • 9/25 (36%) for 34.18pts (+136.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 7/1
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 42.98pts (+126.4%) at 6-15 days since last run
  • 8/42 (19.1%) for 19.3pts (+46%) from 4-7 yr olds
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 31.24pts (+107.7%) at Class 4
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 20.98pts (+99.9%) in June/July
  • 5/27 (18.5%) for 20.76pts (+76.9%) off a mark (OR) of 70-80
  • 3/10 (30%) for 16.84pts (+168.4%) in June
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 7.11pts (+88.9%) from those with 1 previous C&D success

...whilst males sent off at 2/1 to 7/1 in 7-13 runner handicaps after a break of 10 to 40 days are 6/10 (60% SR) for 34.49pts (+344.9% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Super Kid @ 3/1 BOG as offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th May 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

8.35 Southwell : Jazz Legend @ 3/1 BOG 7th at 7/2 (Led over 4f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, lost 2nd and weakened inside final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

1.50 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Copper Knight @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner (was originally 13!), Class 2, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good To Soft worth £21165 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding has won 2 of his last 5 contests and most probably needed the run when not disgraced in finishing fourth up at Musselburgh in this grade last time out, just under three weeks ago despite coming back from a layoff of 164 days.

Providing there's no ill feeling from that run, I'd expect him to be challenging for honours today and improving an already decent career record that currently stands at 6 wins from 28 (21.4% SR) for 27.9pts (+99.6% ROI) and these include of relevance today...

  • 6 from 26 (23.1%) over 5f
  • 5/22 (22.7%) for trainer Tim Easterby (more on him shortly)
  • 5/19 (26.3%) at Class 2
  • 4/17 (23.5%) off a mark (OR) of 91-100
  • 6/14 (42.9%) when rested more than 1 but less than 3 weeks
  • 3/11 (27.3%) under jockey David Allan
  • 3/5 (60%) in May
  • 2/3 (66.6%) going left handed
  • 2/3 (66.6%) here at Chester
  • and 2/2 (100%) over course and distance

He does like to race prominently or even lead and getting drawn in stall 1 without too much apparent pace too close to him, he could well grab a soft uncontested lead and prove difficult to overhaul, giving him a great chance to also improve his trainer's record at this venue, as...

...Tim Easterby + Chester handicaps + last 3 seasons = 14/78 (18% SR) for 39.3pts (+50.4% ROI), including of note today...

  • at 6-20 dslr : 12/54 (22.2%) for 51.5pts (+95.3%)
  • 10-13 runners : 9/47 (19.2%) for 42.7pts (+90.8%)
  • sub-9/1 runners : 12/37 (32.4%) for 46pts (+124.3%)
  • over 5-6 furlongs : 8/37 (21.6%) for 45.7pts (+123.6%)
  • finished 2nd to 4th LTO : 10/34 (29.4%) for 48.9pts (+143.9%)
  • previous track winners : 7/33 (21.2%) for 31.6pts (+95.7%)
  • 1-6 previous distance wins : 8/29 (27.6%) for 47.3pts (+163.2%)
  • under jockey David Allan : 4/19 (21.1%) for 8.28pts (+43.6%)
  • and previous C&D winners : 4/16 (25%) for 11.11pts (+69.4%)

...whilst based upon the above...Sub-9/1 runners running in fields of 6-12 runners, 6-20 days after a top 5 finish LTO are 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 34.6pts (+182.3% ROI), including 4 wins from 9 (44.4%) for 21.92pts (+243.6%) over 5/5.5 furlongs...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Copper Knight @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday, although Betfred/Totesport were offering 3/1 (non-BOG until the morning). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th September 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.00 Newmarket : Main Edition @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Overall leader far side, ridden and headed entering final furlong, no extra and lost 2nd towards finish) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.35 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Intransigent @ 11/4 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good to Soft ground, worth £6081 to the winner... 

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner last time out 15 days ago when comfortably landing the spoils over this very course and distance in a better race (Class 3) than this one, despite being poorly drawn in stall 8 of 10.

His trainer Andrew Balding has got his runners firing of late, as his Flat handicappers are 19 from 86 (22.1% SR) for 8.27pts (+9.61% ROI) over the last 30 days, whilst more long-term (ie since 2010) his record here on the Roodee stands at 61 from 265 (23% SR) for 157.4pts (+59.4% ROI).

These are excellent track records and include of relevance/note today...

  • handicappers at 42/166 (25.3%) for 116.8pts (+70.4%)
  • over the last three seasons : 29/116 (25%) for 96.8pts (+83.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 30/107 (28%) for 92.9pts (+86.8%)
  • in September : 18/67 (26.9%) for 33.5pts (+50%)
  • LTO winners are 12/54 (22.2%) for 33.7pts (+62.5%)

And that LTO winners stat isn't restricted to Chester as since 2012, Mr Balding's LTO winners are 137/664 (20.6% SR) for 142.9pts (+21.5% ROI), including 72 winners from 337 (21.4%) for 126.5pts (+37.5%) over trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs.

Our jockey today is Joshua Bryan, who didn't have a ride yesterday, but did win both his contests on Thursday over at Pontefract, firstly landing an SotD win on Francis Xavier, before winning for Andrew Balding later on the card.

Joshua has already won three races here at Chester this season from just 12 (25% SR) handicap contests for profits of 14.72pts (+122.7% ROI) and these include...

  • over 6 to 7.5 furlongs : 3/6 (50%) for 20.72pts (+345.4%)
  • for Andrew Balding : 2/7 (28.6%) for 1.52pts (+21.7%)
  • and over 6 to 7.5f for Mr Balding : 2/4 (50%) for 4.52pts (+113%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Intransigent @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by ten different firms at 6.00pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

4.15 Kelso : Sudski Star @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 6/1 (Towards rear, reminder 4th, closed next, struggling before 3 out, stayed on approaching last, went 3rd towards finish)

We now continue with Thursday's...

4.35 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ghostwatch @ 4/1 BOG

An 8-runner, Class 3,  1m4½f  Flat Handicap (3yo) on good ground worth £11828 to the winner... 

Why?

Just three runs so far for this 3 yr old colt after finishing third in both starts as a two year old, both over 1m on good to soft ahead of a seasonal reappearance 19 days ago when winning a maiden over 1m4f despite coming off the back of a 226 day absence. He seemed to get the trip easily enough, but will, of course, need to find a bit more here on handicap debut.

The rest of the piece is centred around his trainer Charlie Appleby, about whom there are several threads of relevant data to suggest this horse should go well today, starting with...

...Charlie's record over the last 30 days...

...17 winners from 45 (37.8% SR) for 16.2pts (+35.9% ROI) suggests a yard in form and of these 45 runners :

  • on the Flat : 15/40 (37.5%) for 15.8pts (+39.6%)
  • handicappers : 6/17 (35.3%) for 6.58pts (+38.7%)
  • in Flat handicaps : 5/16 (31.25%) for 5.55pts (+34.7%)

...and now Charlie's handicappers having just a second run in a 90-day period...

...these are 35/153 (22.9% SR) for 62.9pts (+41.1% ROI), from which...

  • those ridden by today's jockey William Buick are 15/60 (25%) for 16.6pts (+27.7%)
  • those last seen 16-30 days earlier are 17/58 (29.3%) for 63.25pts (+109.1%)
  • LTO winners are 12/47 (25.5%) for 9.4pts (+20%)
  • Class 3 runners are 17/45 (37.8%) for 41.6pts (+92.5%)
  • in the month of May : 11/38 (29%) for 27pts (+71.1%)
  • and here at Chester : 1/1 (100%) for 1.22pts (+122%)

...then we'll look at Charlie's record on the Flat at trips of 1m3f to 1m5.5f over the last three seasons...

...where he is 30 from 110 (27.3% SR) for 92.1pts (+83.8% ROI), including...

  • in handicaps : 18/70 (25.7%) for 58.5pts (+83.5%)
  • in May : 9/24 (37.5%) for 17.9pts (+74.7%)
  • and at Class 3 : 6/19 (31.6%) for 10.03pts (+52.8%)

...next up is his record with handicap debutants at Classes 2 to 5 over trips of 1m2.5f to 1m6f...

..which shows 13 winners from 40 (32.5% SR) for 27.5pts (+68.8% ROI) with LTO winners scoring 10 times from 28 (35.7%) for 24.9pts (+88.8%).

...and I'll wrap up with his track record over the last seasons...

...with 5 of his 19 Chester runners (26.3% SR) winning to generate 2.19pts profit at an ROI of 11.5% (they clearly get backed!), from which handicappers fare best winning 4 of 11 (36.4%) for 7.15pts (+65%) profit.

...which all eventually steers us towards...a 1pt win bet on Ghostwatch @ 4/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor & Coral at 5.20pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2017

Friday's Result :

1.20 Doncaster : Aqabah @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 7/2 : With leader, effort 2f out, ridden and one pace over 1f out, no impression with winner when lost 2nd inside final furlong...

Saturday's pick goes in the...

3.15 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dan Troop @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3yr old gelding gets a handy 4lb weight for age allowance here and arrives at the Roodee in great form, having finished 1121 in his last four outings, including a win over course and distance last time out.

The jockey from that day, Connor Murtagh, now rides him for a second time and was able to take 3lbs off a mark of 77 for that win seven weeks ago. Today he takes 7lbs off 90 and with 4lb allowance (W4A), they should still be competitive.

Dan Troop is currently 3 from 6 on the Flat, including...

  • 3/5 at 7/7.5 furlongs , 3/4 this year, 3/4 after a rest of three weeks or longer
  • 3/3 at odds of 9/4 to 9/2, 2/3 in handicaps, 2/3 going left handed
  • 1/1 at Class 3, 1/1 here at Chester, 1/1 over course and distance
  • 1/1 on Soft ground and 1/1 under Connor Murtagh.

Also...trainer Richard Fahey's handicappers at 7/1 and shorter with CD next to their name who also won LTO (anywhere) are 19/77 (24.7% SR) for 10.4pts (+13.5% ROI) over the last 5 seasons, of which...

  • those running over the same course and distance as LTO : 16/65 (24.6%) for 13.12pts (+20.2%)
  • males are 13/52 (25%) for 16.6pts (+31.9%)
  • those racing over trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs are 10/32 (31.25%) for 9.73pts (+30.4%)

AND...males racing at trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs over the same course and distance as LTO = 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 7pts (+39% ROI)

Finally, Connor Murtagh is 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 16.85pts (+187.2% ROI) when sent off at 10/1 or shorter on the back of a Richard Fahey handicapper here at Chester.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dan Troop @ 7/2 BOG, which was offered by Bet365 , Betfred, SkyBet & Totesport at 7.25pm on Friday. For what it's worth, I'm on with Bet365, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th July 2017

Friday's Result :

3.55 Ascot : Appeared @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 2/1 Tracked leaders, took keen hold, steadied 10f out, headway from 5f out, driven 2f out, disputing 2nd when bumped over 1f out, soon short off room and squeezed out, beaten after, no extra final 150 yards.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Chester...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shaaqaaf @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

In a bid to return to some semblance of form (the last couple of weeks have been tough going), I'm stripping SotD back to basics today and keeping it relatively simple/straightforward.

I like the horse's chances here, and she's acquitted herself in her five starts to date, finishing 34212 so far. She was a runner-up when last seen at Newmarket four weeks ago, but now drops in class to run in this open age handicap amongst just her own sex where she'll receive a healthy/useful 8lbs weight for age allowance.

On top of the form/weight issues, there's the Johnny G factor ie trainer John Gosden and his decent record here on the Roodee which has seen him land 18 winners from 67 (26.9% SR) for 11.4pts (+17% ROI) here since 2010. 26.9% is a decent strike rate indeed, but in respect of today's contest, his 67 runners here have the following strike rates...

  • 66.6% were runners-up LTO (2 winners from 3)
  • 34% when sent off at 5/1 and shorter (17/50)
  • 33.3% racing over 7 to 11.5 furlongs (16/48)
  • 30.4% racing at class 4 (7/23)
  • 29.4% in fillies' races (5/17)
  • 29.2% as 3yr olds (14/48)
  • 27.3% from his female runners (6/22)
  • and 26.4% from those racing after a break of 11 to 45 days (14/53)

She's also quite likely to go off as favourite and jockey Kieren Fox is 17/44 (38.6% SR) for 12.3pts (+27.9% ROI) on handicap favourites since the start of 2013, with those racing over trips of 5 to 8 furlongs winning 13 of 25 (52%) for 19.08pts profit at an ROI of some 76.3%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Shaaqaaf @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair Sports & Paddy Power at 7.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Chester...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th May 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.00 Ayr : Logi @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 Held up behind, headway over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on towards finish

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

1.50 Chester...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Requinto Dawn3/1 BOG

Why?

A 2 yr old colt, just 40 days into a racing career that saw him win over this trip at Doncaster before narrowly failing to back it up a fortnight later last time out, beaten by three quarters of a length.

We have some excellent writers here at Geegeez and it's rare that any of the races I choose overlap with those writers and I always prefer to avoid reading any other content before making my picks, so I'm not swayed either way. So, after putting up Requinto Dawn at 6.45pm, I then spotted the Andy Newton's TV Trends piece (which is right here) and for those who haven't seen it, you really should as it's very good indeed.

Anyway, as usual , I digress! My point was that I took a look at Andy's piece and I found that of the last 15 winners of this particular race...

  • 15 had had a recent run (ours ran 25 days ago)
  • 14 had a top 3 finish LTO (2nd)
  • 12 were favs finishing 1st or 2nd LTO (11/8 fav)
  • 11 had already won at this 5f trip (won on debut)
  • 4 of the last 11 were also drawn in stall 5.

And to be honest, I felt like Andy had done my job for me! But, as an Irish comedian once said, there's more!

Further reinforcement comes from the fact that trainer Richard Fahey's 2 yr olds are 21/102 (20.6% SR) for 60.25pts (+59.1% ROI) here at Chester over the last seasons, which in respect of today's contest look like this...

  • in non-handicaps : 19/72 (26.4%) for 71.6pts (+99.4%)
  • making a debut today or 2nd,3rd or 4th LTO : 17/63 927%) for 80.5pts (+127.8%)
  • those last seen 11-30 days ago are 14/61 (23%) for 10.4pts (+17%)
  • those carrying 9st 2lbs to 9st 5lbs are 12/44 (27.3%) for 40.5pts (+92.1%)
  • and in May : 6/18 (33.3%) for 27.2pts (+150.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Requinto Dawn3/1 BOG which was on offer in over a dozen places at 6.45pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 24th September 2016

Friday's Result :

5.15 Worcester : Miss Crick @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/1 (Chased leaders, led 2 out, clear flat, comfortable win by 8 lengths)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

3.40 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miracle of Medinah at 9/2 BOG

Why?

It might well be a whole year on Monday since this 5yr old gelding last won a race, but it's worth remembering that the win came in a Group 3 contest and he's been asked to carry too much weight ever since.

He was paired up with the promisingly talented Lulu Stamford for the very first time when last seen 15 days ago and that resulted in his best run since that big win a year ago. Lulu is very good value for her 7lb claim and this allowance allied to a falling handicap mark has made this horse very competitive again.

Lulu is riding well, as seen by her 4 wins and 4 placed finished from 14 rides in the last 4 weeks (she just needs more rides!), including that runner-up finish on Miracle of Medinah for trainer Mark Usher, whose horses are 2 from 8 since that race.

This horse now takes a further drop in class after being headed very late on last time out and Mark Usher's Flat handicappers dropping down a grade are 10/73 (13.7% SR) for 39.9pts (+54.7% ROI), from which...

  • those last seen 11-25 days ago are 9/47 (19.1%) for 50.3pts (+107.1%)
  • those finishing 2nd to 5th LTO are 6/28 (21.4%) for 21.5pts (+76.6%)
  • and on good to soft ground : 3/9 (33.3%) for 38.9pts (+432%)

AND...those who finished 2nd to 5th, 11 to 25 days ago are 6/20 (30% SR) for 29.5pts (+147.5% ROI).

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Miracle of Medinah at 9/2 BOG, which was available in at least 10 places at 9.20pm on Friday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Chester.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...