Tag Archives: Chepstow racecourse

Stat of the Day, 7th December 2019

Friday's pick was...

1.20 Sandown : Johnbb @ 10/3 BOG WON at 6/4 (Close up, tracked leaders 3 out, ridden to lead on landing last, ran on to win by a 3.25 lengths)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

12.20 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Native Robin @ 4/1

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on currently Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding is a consistent sort, finishing 123222 in his last six outings and despite not winning any of the last five, he still boasts an impressive 5 wins from 16 over fences, including...

  • 5/13 under today's jockey Nick Scholfield
  • 4/9 at Class 4
  • 4/6 in December/January
  • 3/7 going right handed
  • and 2/3 in December

Aside from the above, this horse's name kept cropping up when I was going through my list of possible qualifiers, so I'm going to keep the separate stats brief.

We'll start by saying that the yard is in good nick too, with 5 winners from 19 in the past fortnight, including 4/12 in the last week, whilst since the start of 2017, Jeremy Scott's handicap jumpers are 23 from 80 (28.75% SR) for 16.84pts (+21% ROI) when sent off shorter than 7/1 on soft/heavy ground.

Whilst since 2014, Jeremy's Class 4 handicap chasers are 40/197 (20.3% SR) for 77.5pts (+39.3% ROI), with Nick Scholfield riding 17 winners from 79 (21.5%), whilst clocking up 38.2pts (+48.4%) profit.

And in that same 2014-19 time frame, Jeremy's sub-12/1 handicap chasers dropping in class are 18/46 (39.1% SR) for 90.6pts (+196.9% ROI) with Nick Scholfield once again being the go-to guy with an 11/24 (45.8%) record producing profits of 69.4pts (+289.3%)

Also, since 2014, when a handicap chaser has been Jeremy Scott's only runner of the day, he's has 24 winners from 123 (19.5% SR) for 79.5pts (+65.2% ROI) profit with lower grade (ie C4/5) runners winning 20 of 86 (23.2%) for 81.3pts (+95.7%).

And finally, I'll wrap this one up with a quick nod to Native Robin's recent form, since in UK Class 3-5 handicap chases since 2012, horses sent off shorter than 5/1 after finishing 222 in their previous three outings are 38 from 110 (34.6% SR) for 35.9pts (+32.6% ROI) when they'd last ran 11-45 days earlier. This includes 10 winners from 18 (55.6%) for 17.42pts (+96.8%) over 2m3.5f/2m4f ...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1  as was offered by Hills at 4.50pm on Friday. Hills were the only price available as I went to press, but another 8 firms went on to match that price, including some BOG firms. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 12.20 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st March 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

4.20 Haydock : Dartford Warbler @ 15/2 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Mid-division, headway 5 out, chased leaders next, never able to challenge)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.35 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Treasure Dillon 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on Good to Soft worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?

A lightly raced 5 yr old gelding, making just his 7th start under Rules (was a winner in his only PTP contest), but has finished as a runner-up in three of his last four over hurdles, coming very close last time out, nine days ago and probably would have won but for a mistake late on.

Now he's at the same class, trip and OR as LTO, Mitchell Bastyan is in the saddle again and I'd suggest a slightly better jumping performance wins him this race. Mitchell again claims his 5lb allowance and he'll be buoyed by 2 wins and a place from 6 efforts over hurdles in the last fortnight.

Trainer Evan Williams is 11/52 (21.2% SR) for 139.2pts (+267.6% ROI) in Chepstow handicap hurdles since 2015 but it's clear that those figures are slightly skewed by one big-priced winner, so if we impose a sensible 14/1 odds cap on those runners, we then move to 10 from 42 (23.8% SR) and 58.9pts (+140.2% ROI) profit, which is still excellent and includes of relevance today...

  • 1 to 6 weeks since last run : 7/21 (33.3%) for 35.6pts (+169.7%)
  • Class 4 : 3/17 (17.7%) for 10.8pts (+63.6%)
  • in March : 3/8 (37.5%) for 14.7pts (+183.3%)
  • ridden by Mitchell Bastyan : 2/5 (40%) for 27pts (+539.8%)

This horse also became of interest via two of my microsystems, starting with the fact that since 2012, Evan Williams' handicappers running within a fortnight of a top 3 finish LTO went on to win 49 of 185 (26.5% SR) for 65.3pts (+35.3% ROI), from which...

  • 2-10 dslr : 39/119 (32.8%) for 48.2pts (+40.5%)
  • hurdlers are 24/74 (31.2%) for 56.6pts (+73.5%)
  • Class 4 : 25/76 (32.9%) for 46.3pts (+60.9%)
  • Same OR as LTO : 20/72 (27.8%) for 64.8pts (+89.9%)
  • Runner-up LTO : 19/65 (29.2%) for 49.2pts (+75.6%)
  • and in March : 11/27 (40.7%) for 19.8pts (+73.4%)

And secondly, since the Geegeez racecard pace tab says he likes to run mid-division with an average pace score of 2.25, I refer to one of my saved Query Tool angles which tells me that over the last 5 years in UK Class 4/5 NH handicaps, 5 to 9  yr olds with an average previous pace score of 2 to 3 who are down to carry 12-0o to 12-05 before claims over trips of 2m4f or shorter on non-heavy ground are 58/200 (29% SR) for 87.3pts (+43.65% ROI) at Industry SP (which we should better with BSP or BOG, of course), including...

  • Class 4 : 38/136 (27.9%) for 80.1pts (+58.9%)
  • hurdlers : 33/115 (28.7%) for 47.2pts (+41%)
  • and Class 4 hurdlers are 20/67 (29.9%) for 44.4pts (+66.2%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Treasure Dillon 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 12.30am this morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th December 2018

Friday's Pick was...

12.50 Sandown : Cap St Vincent @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Held up in touch, headway 8th, ridden to chase leaders before 3 out, went 3rd next, kept on same pace, no impression with front pair)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.55 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Steely Addition @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 3m on Heavy ground worth £7408 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 6 yr old gelding, the only previous winner at this trip in this field (has won over C&D) and is trained by Philip Hobbs, whose runners seem to have been in great form of late ie...

Last 30 days = 20 from 98 (20.4% SR) for 200.2pts (+204.3% ROI), including 8/31 (25.8%) for 102.5pts (+330.8%) in chases

Last 14 days = 10/32 (31.25%) for 93.3pts (+291.5%), inc 5/10 (50%) for 101.35pts (+1013.5%) over fences

And the past 7 days = 6/14 (42.9%) for 97.5pts (+696.2%) with 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 99.7pts (+1994%) over the larger obstacles.

Note : the P/L and resultant ROI figures are above are skewed by a 50/1 winner last Saturday that paid out at over 90/1 on the exchanges, but that doesn't detract from the strike rates.

In addition to very good recent form, Mr Hobbs' handicap chasers are 16 from 96 (16.6% SR) for 14.4pts (+15% ROI) since 2009, including...

  • at odds of 2/1 to 6/1 : 15/54 (27.8%) for 23pts (+42.7%)
  • at trips of 3m and beyond : 9/51 (17.6%) for 23.5pts (+46%)
  • on heavy ground : 4/28 (14.3%) for 18.8pts (+67.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 6/25 (24%) for 8.24pts (+33%)
  • and 6 yr olds are 5/14 (35.7%) for 12.3pts (+87.9%)

...whilst those sent off at 2/1 to 6.1 over today's course and distance are 8/26 (30.8%) for 15.09pts (+58%) including 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 5.45pts (+68.1%) on heavy ground.

Finally, as it's Saturday, it would be remiss of me not to mention Mr Hobbs' excellent record in Saturday handicaps. Saturday racing is ultra competitive and many people (owners, trainers and punters alike) find it hard to have a winner on these days, but if you were to follow Philip Hobbs in Saturday Class 1-3 handicap chases from October to January inclusive, you could do pretty well for yourself.

Since the start of 2013, such beasts (all male) are 32 from 151 (21.2% SR) for 93.5pts (+61.9%ROI), a remarkable record that includes of relevance today...

  • at odds of 2/1 to 10/1 : 29/114 (25.4%) for 88pts (+77.2%)
  • over trips of 3m/3m1f : 10/42 (23.8%) for 20.6pts (+49%)
  • at Class 3 : 9/38 (23.7%) for 18.95pts (+49.9%)
  • in December : 8/38 (21%) for 30.8pts (+81.1%)
  • on heavy  :6/27 (22.2%) for 13.27pts (+49.1%)
  • at Chepstow : 5/24 (20.8%) for 6.93pts (+28.9%)
  • 6 yr olds : 5/19 (26.3%) for 11.22pts (+59.1%)
  • and in 2018 alone : 4/12 (33.3%) for 16.45pts (+137.1%)

...and from the above, those sent off at 2/1 to 10/1 over trips of 3m/3m1f are 10/35 (28.6% SR) for 27.6pts (+78.8% ROI), including 7 from 14 (50%) for 17.74pts (+126.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 4/1...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Steely Addition @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.05pm on Friday evening, whilst an extra half a point was available from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st November 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

1.00 Fakenham : Too Much Too Soon @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Led, not fluent 5th, ridden and headed bend approaching last, soon weakened) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

12.40 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Solstice Star @ 10/3 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m on Good To Soft ground worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?

Firstly, apologies for the slightly tardy write-up, I do aim to have this online by around 9am, but I had some stuff to deal with at my daughter's school this morning. Anyway, on with the details!

This 8 yr old gelding was a class, course and distance winner here LTO 22 days ago despite coming off a break of almost 6 months. He benefited from an excellent tactical ride from Richard Johnson (who retains the ride), doing just enough to win with enough in hand whilst protecting his mark for next time out. The result is a mere 3lb rise in weight, but he should also strip fitter for having had the run.

He's the only previous course and distance winner in today's contest, he loves some cut in the ground and has an excellent 30% strike rate in handicap hurdles, after winning 6 of 20 so far, including of relevance today...

  • 6/16 (37.5%) with a tongue tie
  • 6/15 (40%) going left handed
  • 5/6 (83.3%) in the final third of the year
  • 3/4 (75%) at Class 4
  • 2/4 (50%) here at Chepstow
  • 3/3 (100%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 2/3 (66.6%) off a mark of 110-120
  • 2/2 (100%) in November

His trainer Martin Keighley is 22 from 83 (26.5% SR) for 71.4pts (+86% ROI) with LTO winners since the start of 2015 and these include...

  • in handicaps : 16/59 (27.1%) for 64.3pts (+109%)
  • over hurdles : 16/49 (32.7%) for 71.9pts (+146.7%)
  • in handicap hurdles : 12/33 (36.4%) for 66.9pts (+202.6%)
  • with hcp hurdlers who won a hcp hurdle LTO : 11/22 (50%) for 53.1pts (+241.4%)
  • and with hcp hurdlers who won a hcp hurdle LTO 6-25 days earlier : 9/15 (60%) for 49.8pts (+332.1%)

Martin also has a decent record record here at Chepstow, despite not actually having all that many runners come here. Since 2011, his handicap hurdlers have won 7 of 33 (21.2% SR) for 36.5pts (+110.6% ROI) profit, from which...

  • those last seen in the past 25 days are 5/18 (27.8%) for 40.44pts (+224.7%)
  • over this 3m C&D : 4/18 (22.2%) for 33.9pts (+188.4%)
  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 5/13 (38.5%) for 13.1pts (+101.1%)
  • and at Class 4 : 4/12 (33.3%) for 17.1pts (+142.2%)

And finally, I'll wrap this up by sharing one of my micro-systems that Solstice Star also qualifies from today...

...UK NH Hcp Hurdles + 2011-18 + LTO winner of a same class, course and distance hcp hurdle = 110/419 (26.3% SR) for 152.2pts (+36.3% ROI)...

In the interests of time, brevity etc, I'm not oing to drill down into that micro today, but it is worth noting that at trips of 3m to 3m2f, those 419 runners are 23/82 (28.1%) for 48pts (+58.5%) and those racing on Good to Soft are 17/68 (25%) for 49.5pts (+72.8%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Solstice Star @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by Hills & Sky at 5.45pm on Tuesday evening, whilst there was an extra sixth of a point available with Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.40 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th October 2018

Monday's Pick was...

2.30 Leicester : Lady Alavesa @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Behind, headway over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, led at post) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miles to Milan @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 10-runner, Class 4 Novices Limited Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 3m2½f on Good ground worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding was a winner on his only previous effort over fences and that was at Ayr back in May. He reappeared 11 days ago for a sharpener over hurdles, but was expectedly found out/outpaced over a much shorter trip, but the run will have done him good after 165-day absence. Back over fences and back up in trip, this should be more to his liking.

His yard is in great form of late with his stablemates winning 10 of 38 (26.3% SR) over the last 30 days, including 3 from 4 over fences, whilst in the last fortnight, they are 5 from 20 (25%) with a 2 from 3 record in chases.

In fact, it's less than 16 months since Olly Murphy had his first runner, but in that time he has quickly established a reputation as a decent trainer and although they do tend to attract market support, you can actually just about turn a small profit from blindly backing his chasers, as his 16 from 65 (24.6% SR) record has generated 1.16pts profit at Betfair SP at a modest ROI of 1.78%.

All 65 were males and whilst the returns are small, they're an excellent starting point and I'd never advocate blind backing anyway! Yet, of the Olly Murphy chasers so far...

  • handicappers are 14/58 (24.1%) for 2.44pts (+4.2%)
  • Class 4/5 runners are 15/51 (29.4%) for 10.22pts (+20%) you could actually stop here and do nicely!
  • after a break of 11-45 days : 12/47 (25.5%) for 8.71pts (+18.5%)
  • Class 4/5 handicappers : 13/45 (28.9%) for 10.49pts (+23.3%) another possible stopping point?
  • on Good ground : 9/34 (26.5%) for 9.1pts (+26.8%)
  • at odds of 6/5 to 7/2 : 13/30 (43.3%) for 11.5pts (+38.3%)
  • ridden by Richard Johnson : 7/25 (28%) for 4.41pts (+17.6%)
  • 8 yr olds are 4/14 (28.6%) for 0.32pts (+2.26%)
  • in October : 4/7 (57.1%) for 4.65pts (+66.4%)
  • and after a break of 11-15 days : 2/4 950%) for 1.47pts (+36.7%)

...and a handy composite micro from the above?

Well, it's probably a micro micro, but Olly Murphy's Class 4/5 handicap chasers priced at 10/3 and shorter just 11 to 45 days after their last run are 8 from 15 (53.3% SR) for 9.87pts at an ROI of 65.8% with Richard Johnson riding 5 winners from 8 (62.5%) for 9.64pts (+120.6%)...

...and Dicky himself is in good touch right now winning 17 of 49 (34.7% SR) in the last fortnight, including 7 from 14 (50%) over fences, whilst the last 7 days have seen him win 13 of 27 (48.2%) with a 5 from 7 record in chases.

And although the Murphy/Johnson/hcp chase angle hasn't seen much action in the last couple of months, it's still worth noting that it's good for 7 winners from 22 (31.8% SR) for 7.41pts (+33.7% ROI) and interestingly 5 of those 22 chasers ran in a hurdle race last time out. Two wins and a place from those five and a £100 outlay (5 x £20 straight win bets) on them would have made you £158.60 profit at an obvious ROI of 158.6%...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Miles to Milan @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.55pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th August 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

5.30 Kempton : Pot Luck @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Tracked leader, effort over 2f out, soon one pace, no extra closing stages)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.10 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kinglami 11/4 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a decent third over course and distance 8 days ago, only beaten by just over half a length on ground that was probably on the quick side for him. Back on his favoured soft ground off the same mark, I fancy to get himself (and me in the process!) back to winning ways.

His overall profile says this is exactly the kind of race he wants as from an already decent record on the Flat reading 9 from 46 (19.6% SR) for 21.9pts (+47.6% ROI) profit, he is...

  • 9/43 (20.9%) for 24.9pts (+57.9%) on a straight track
  • 9/38 (23.7%) for 29.9pts (+78.7%) in cheekpieces
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 35.9pts (+112.2%) at Class 4-6
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 25.1pts (+83.7%) over 6f
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 27.4pts (+105.3%) from June to August
  • 6/20 (30%) for 29.3pts (+146.5%) in 2017/18
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 23.6pts (+130.8%) at odds of 7/4 to 7/1
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 16.5pts (+149.7%) on Soft ground
  • 4/10 (40%) for 24.9pts (+249%) here at Chepstow
  • 3/5 (60%) for 22.8pts (+456%) over this course and distance
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 16.3pts (+326%) under jockey Ryan Rossa

He is trained by John O'Shea, whose Flat runners are 4/17 (23.5% SR) for 12.98pts (+76.4% ROI) over the last 30 days, with Ryan Rossa riding all four winners from just nine starts (44.4% SR) for 20.98pts profit at an ROI of 233.1%.

And overall when using Ryan to ride his Flat handicappers, Mr O'Shea's runners are 8/22 (36.4% SR) for 37.2pts (+169.1%), from which...

  • here at Chepstow : 4/10 (40%) for 16.94pts (+169.4%)
  • with Ryan claiming 3lbs : 3/9 (33.3%) for 17.28pts (+191.9%)
  • and with Ryan claiming 3lbs here at Chepstow : 2/5 (40%) for 14.1pts (+282%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Kinglami 11/4 BOGa price offered by over a dozen firms at 6.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.10 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th August 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

3.55 Newbury : Stay Classy @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (In touch in mid-division, switched left and headway 2f out, challenged over 1f out, led narrowly well inside final furlong, headed close home and beaten by a neck)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.30 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swendab 10/3 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 6 Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

This might be a low grade fixture-fulfilling type of affair, but trainers/owners don't keep 10 yr olds in training unless they think they can do themselves justice and Swendab is proving there's still plenty of life in his legs. After all, he's only had 130 races to date!

130 races or not, he's back in form and today's conditions look well suited for him, as I'll explain shortly. He was just touched off by a head here over course and distance two starts ago, before winning another Class 6, 5f affair at Ffos Las last time six days ago by 2 lengths after making all and could easily have won by further that day, so to be effectively just 4lbs worse off in what looks a slightly weaker race on paper might not be enough to anchor him, plus he has won off higher marks in the past, including over this C&D.

As many late developers do, Swendab failed to win as a 2 yr old, but since the age of 3, he has won his fair share : 17 from 125 (13.6% SR) to be precise and blindly backing him would have made a marginal profit of 2.92pts (+2.34% ROI), but backing him under the following dozen relevant angles (all of which are in play today) has been more than worthwhile...

  • in handicaps : 17/121 (14.1%) for 6.92pts (+5.72)
  • 4-20 days since last run : 14/80 (17.5%) for 23.76pts (+29.7%)
  • off a mark (OR) of 55-70 : 12/77 (15.6%) for 26.88pts (+34.9%)
  • over 5f : 13/71 (18.3%) for 22.35pts (+31.5%)
  • on a straight track : 10/59 (17%) for 12pts (+20.3%)
  • at Class 6 : 7/47 (14.9%) for 24.37pts (+51.9%)
  • at odds of 7/1 and shorter : 13/43 (30.2%) for 26.91pts (+62.6%)
  • in fields of 4-7 runners : 8/38 (21.1%) for 8.15pts (+21.5%)
  • 4-9 days since last run : 6/26 (23.1%) for 7.87pts (+30.3%)
  • at Chepstow : 3/19 (15.8%) for 9.18pts (+48.3%)
  • in August : 6/18 (33.3%) for 13.51pts (+75%)
  • and after a win LTO : 5/16 (31.25%) for 13.86pts (+86.6%)

...AND...in 5f handicaps off a mark of 50-70 with less than 3 weeks rest = 9/37 (24.3% SR) for 42.02pts (+113.6% ROI), from which since the start of last season ie as a 9/10 yr old : 6/23 (26.1%) for 37.11pts (+161.4%)!!

His trainer John O'Shea is also in good touch right with 3 winners from 5 over the last fortnight, whilst his record on the Flat with LTO winners since 2011 stands at 18/50 (36% SR) for 44.9pts (+89.8% ROI) and whilst that's not a massive sample size, it does throw up some interesting angles that are pertinent today...

  • in handicaps : 17/49 (34.7%) for 42.1pts (+85.9%)
  • less than 3 weeks since last run : 17/41 (41.5%) for 50pts (+121.9%)
  • at same distance as LTO win : 11/25 (44%) for 29.65pts (+118.6%)
  • at same class as LTO win : 11/24 (45.8%) for 30.5pts (+127%)
  • at Chepstow : 9/21 (42.9%) for 26.6pts (+126.6%)
  • using a jockey claiming 5lbs : 7/19 (36.8%) for 19.66pts (+103.5%)
  • in August : 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.3pts (+108%)
  • at Class 6 : 8/15 (53.3%) for 18.75pts (+125%)
  • and over 5f : 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.3pts (+111.8%)

...AND...from the above...Chepstow handicappers at the same class/distance as an LTO win in the previous three weeks = 4/4 (100% SR) for 19.55pts (+488.75% ROI), interestingly all ridden by claimers!

...which all points to...a 1pt win bet on Swendab 10/3 BOGa price Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Tuesday, whilst Bet365 were slightly better @ 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th April 2018

Friday's Runner was...

2.50 Aintree : Terrefort @ 7/2 BOG WON at 3/1 (Held up in touch, went 3rd at 12th, hit 3 out, challenged after next, ridden to lead before last, asserted clear final 110 yards to win by 3.75 lengths)

And now to Saturday's...

4.05 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kimberlite Candy @ 4/1 BOG

A 6-runner, Class 3,  2m7.5f Chase (Novices Limited Handicap 5yo+) on heavy ground worth £7343 to the winner...

Why?

I've had some connection issues overnight/this morning, so I'm (a) running a bit late and (b) going to keep this fairly concise.

This 6yr old gelding was third last time out 50 days ago a better looking/deeper race than this one and yet has been eased 2lbs in the ratings, which should help.

He has no previous run on heavy ground, admittedly, but has raced most of his 10-race career on soft ground, winning twice on soft and twice at Class 3.

He's trained by Tom Lacey who has been somewhat of a revelation these past couple of years with his handicappers winning 36 of 126 (28.% SR) for 103.5pts (+82.2% ROI) since the start of 2016 and with today's contest in mind, those 126 are...

  • 30/108 (27.8%) for 86.5pts (+80.1%) from male runners
  • 24/74 (32.4%) for 73.1pts (+98.8%) from those with a top 3 finish LTO
  • 8/38 (21.1%) for 34.4pts (+90.5%) at Class 3
  • 9/31 (29%) for 7.82pts (+25.2%) in chases
  • 5/20 (25%) for 3.27pts (+16.35%) on heavy ground
  • 4/10 (40%) for 12.4pts (+124%) in April
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 2.52pts (+84.1%) here at Chepstow

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Kimberlite Candy @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 8.50pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th January 2018

Friday's Result :

8.45 Kempton :Magic Mirror @ 7/2 BOG non-runner declared lame an hour before post time....

Next up is Saturday's...

3.20 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Play the Ace @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 2, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m3.5f on Heavy ground worth £18,990 to the winner...

Why?

A chaser at the top of his game with 6 wins, 3 places and a 4th (but that was in a Listed event) from his last 10 starts, plus he's won his last four taking his chasing record to 8 from 21, which based on today's conditions also includes...

  • 7/17 with a tongue tie and 6/16 in cheekpieces
  • 7/14 within 30 days of his last run and 6/13 going left handed
  • 4/10 in fields of 1-7 runners and 2/4 under today's jockey Jamie Bowen
  • 1 from 1 at today's trip and 1 from 1 heavy ground

He is trained by Peter Bowen, whose NH handicappers are 20/106 (18.9% SR) for 63.2pts (+59.7% ROI) on heavy ground over the last 5 years, from which...

  • at trips of 2m to 3m : 20/76 (26.3%) for 93.2pts (+122.7%)
  • at Chepstow : 6/21 (28.6%) for 35pts (+166.8%)
  • at Class 2 : 3/16 (18.75%) for 22.77pts (+142.3%)

Plus, his handicap chasers who won LTO 4-30 days earlier are 17/64 (26.6% SR) for 27.9pts (+43.6% ROI) over the same 5 year period, including...

  • those priced at 7/1 and shorter : 17/54 (31.5%) for 37.9pts (+70.2%)
  • at 2m1.5f to 3m : 17/47 (36.2%) for 44.9pts (+95.5%)
  • at 7/1 and shorter over 2m1.5f to 3m : 17/40 (42.5%) for 51.9pts (+129.7%)
  • at Class 2 : 3/6 (50%) for 16.51pts (+275.2%)
  • on heavy : 2/4 (50%) for 7.38pts (+184.5%)
  • and here at Chepstow : 2/2 (100%) for 11.84pts (+592%)

And finally, Play the Ace was sired by Scorpion, whose offspring are 12/103 (11.7% SR) for 98pts (+95.1% ROI) in NH handicaps on soft or worse ground over last 5 years, including 9 wins from 47 (19.2%) for 128.5pts (+273.5%) at trips of 2m to 2m4f.

...all of which points to...... a 1pt win bet on Play the Ace @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available in half a dozen places at 6.40pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th December 2017

Boxing Day's Result :

3.25 Market Rasen: Focaccia @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 9/2 Prominent on outside, driven to lead after 3 out, headed next, weakened before last, tailed off.

No joy on a busy day, next up is Wednesday's...

1.05 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Play The Ace @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m3.5f on Heavy ground worth £18,990 to the winner...

And an 8 yr old gelding who has already won 8 of his 21 (38.1% SR) starts over fences, including 6 wins and 3 places from 10 over the last six months and has won each of his last four!

His 8/21 chasing record includes...

  • 7/17 with a tongue tie, 6/16 in cheekpieces
  • 7/14 within a month of his last run, 6/13 going left handed
  • 6/12 this year, 2/4 under jockey Jamie Bowen
  • 1/1 on heavy and 1/1 at today's trip but stays (and has won) over further

His trainer Peter Bowen has a good record running horses in tough conditions, as his heavy ground handicappers are 21/106 (19.8% SR) for 65.6pts (+61.9% ROI) over the last five years and amongst those 106 mudlarks...

  • those racing over 2m to 3m are 21/76 (27.6%) for 95.6pts (+125.8%)
  • those running here at Chepstow are 6/21 (28.6%) for 35pts (+166.8%)
  • at Class 2 : 3/16 (18.75%) for 22.8pts (+142.3%)
  • and LTO winners are 7/11 (63.6%) for 27.2pts (+247.5%) : a small but astonishing sample!

More generally over the last couple of years, Peter's runners have also achieved the following of interest/relevance...

  • chasers are 51/233 (21.9%) for 116.5pts (+50%)
  • hcp chasers are 44/215 (20.5%) for 103.3pts (+48%)
  • LTO winners are 22/92 (23.9%) for 36pts (+39.1%)
  • chasers who won LTO are 14/49 (28.6%) for 30.2pts (+61.6%)
  • hcp chasers who won LTO are 14/47 (29.8%) for 32.2pts (+68.5%), of which those running on heavy ground are 3 from 3 for 12.08pts (+402.8%).

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Play The Ace @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Boylesports, Coral, Hills & Ladbrokes at 5.40pm on Boxing Day.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!