Tag Archives: Cheltenham racecourse

Stat of the Day, 1st January 2020

New Year's Eve's pick was...

3.20 Lingfield : Knockout Blow @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Mid-division, headway over 1f out, never nearer)

New Year's Day's pick runs in the...

12.15 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Redford Road @ 3/1 and Betfair SP

...in the 6-runner, Listed, Ballymore Novices Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £14,238 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding was a Grade 2 winner here at Cheltenham on his last start 18 days ago and although he now takes a drop in trip, he has won at 2m4f over hurdles in the past. In fact he's never been out of the first two home in five starts, winning three times and never beaten by more than a length, including...

  • 3 from 3 going left handed
  • 2 wins and a second from 3 over hurdles (all Novice events)
  • 2 from 2 under jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
  • a win and a second from 2 on Soft ground
  • and 1 from 1 here at Cheltenham

Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies' hurdlers who won last time out are 31 from 99 (31.3% SR) for 17.1pts (+17.3% ROI) when sent off at odds of Evens to 13/2 over the past four years, including of relevance today...

  • 31/97 (32%) for 19.1pts (+19.7%) with males
  • 25/67 (37.3%) for 30.2pts (+45.1%) with 5/6 yr olds
  • 11/19 (57.9%) for 22.4pts (+117.7%) over trips of 2m3½f to 2m4½f
  • 9/30 (30%) for 1.5pts (+5%) on soft ground
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 2.4pts (+12.4%) here at HQ
  • 5/10 (50%) for 8.26pts (+82.6%) in January
  • and 4/4 (100%) for 10.6pts (+265%) from those dropping in trip by 4-5 furlongs

...whilst from the above...5-6 yr old males racing over 2m3½f to 2m4½f are 9/15 (60% SR) for 21.53pts (+143.5% ROI) including 4/7 on soft, 2/2 in Jan, 2/2 dropping 4-5f and 1/1 at Chelts...

...giving us...0.5pts at Betfair SP and a 0.5pt win bet on Redford Road @ 3/1 as was available from Paddy Power & Betfair at 6.40pm on New Year's Eve. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.15 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th December 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.15 Taunton : Capeland @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Mid-division, headway before 3 out, blundered 3 out, kept on and held towards finish, going down by half a length)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rock The Kasbah @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Grade 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good ground worth £33762 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding was a winner of a similar quality Grade 3 handicap chase here at Cheltenham over 3m3.5f when last seen 27 days ago, so stamina shouldn't be an issue today, which isn't surprising considering that offspring of Shirocco are 14 from 115 (12.2% SR) for 21.5pts (+18.7% ROI) backed blindly at trips of 2m6f to 3m3.5f since 2015, from which...

  • those competing for prizes below £35k are 14/108 (13%) for 28.5pts (+26.4%)
  • males are 11/98 (11.2%) for 22.2pts (+22.6%)
  • 11-45 days since last run = 10/75 (13.3%) for 14.1pts (+18.8%)
  • 6-8 yr olds are 11/71 (15.5%) for 36.4pts (+51.2%)
  • on Good / Good to Soft : 11/71 (15.5%) for 33.8pts (+47.6%)
  • in fields of 5-11 runners : 11/69 (15.9%) for 32.1pts (+46.5%)
  • in 2018 alone : 7/42 (16.7%) for 26pts (+62%)
  • and at 3m1.5f to 3m3.5f : 4/21 919%) for 25.4pts (+120.9%)

Our trainer is Philip Hobbs (so you won't be surprised to see Richard Johnson in the saddle, but I won't bore you by repeating the well known/worn trainer jockey stats!) and Mr Hobbs is in good form again right now, with 13 winners from 44 already this month and that 29.6% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of some 109.4pts (+248.6% ROI) to betfair SP, including...

  • at odds of 9/1 and shorter : 12/35 (34.3%) for 31.7pts (+90.5%)
  • chasers are 7/18 (38.9%) for 117.5pts (+625.8%)
  • Sub 10/1 chasers are 6/14 (42.9%) for 34.8pts (+248.6%)
  • at trips of 3m and beyond : 5/8 (62.5%) for 24.7pts (+309%) (all were chasers)
  • and sub-10/1 runners at 3m and beyond = 5/7 (71.4%) for 25.7pts (+367.4%)  (all were chasers)

And finally, a quick look at Philip Hobbs excellent record here over fences at NH HQ, particularly with those with a bit (but not too much!) of market support behind them. What I look for is a Philip Hobbs Cheltenham handicap chaser sent off longer than 3/1 but still at single digit odds and in numerical terms, we have...

...Hobbs + Chelts HC Chasers @ 10/3 to 9/1 = 14/55 (25.5% SR) for 61.7pts (+112.2% ROI) since the start of 2012 and these include of relevance today...

  • ridden by Richard Johnson : 12/39 (30.8%) for 59.2pts (+151.7%)
  • previous Chelts winners are 7/26 (26.9%) for 26pts (+100%)
  • Class 1 = 5/24 (20.8%) for 23.5pts (+97.9%)
  • aiming at prizes of £25k to £35k : 9/23 (39.1%) for 54.8pts (+238.2%)
  • Grade 3 = 5/18 (27.8%) for 29.5pts (+163.9%)
  • 8 yr olds are 5/17 (29.4%) for 28.2pts (+166.1%)
  • and LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 24.2pts (+268.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rock The Kasbah @ 11/2 BOG, as offered by Hills, Ladbrokes & Coral at 5.25pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th October 2018

Friday's Pick was...

1.20 Doncaster : Lola's Theme @ 13/2 BOG non-runner (withdrawn early on race day, citing the going) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Foxtail Hill @ 4/1 BOG  

...in a 7-runner, Class 2, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £37140 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding won this race last year off a mark 2lbs higher than today and although he hasn't raced in the last 189 days...(a) neither have most of his rivals and (b) when winning this last year, he was coming off a break of 192 days, so we know he can go well fresh.

He has 4 wins and 2 places from 17 efforts over fences and these include of relevance today...

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 13 in handicaps
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 8 on Good ground
  • 2 wins from 8 at 2m/2m0.5f
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 7 here at Cheltenham
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 7 with jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
  • 1 from 2 at Class 2 (but has won at Gr 3!)
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance (last year's race)

His trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies' handicap chasers are going well right now winning 6 of 22 (27.3% SR) for 4.59pts (+20.9% ROI) over the last 30 days, but that's no real surprise to me, because since 2013 during the May to October period, his 5 to 10 yr old male handicap chasers have won 56 of 243 (23.1% SR) for 166.9pts (+68.7% ROI) when rested for at least 16 days.

Of these 243 runners and of note today...

  • those ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies are 40/163 (24.5%) for 135.7pts (+83.3%)
  • on Good ground : 31/160 (19.4%) for 51.5pts (+32.2%)
  • at odds of 5/2 to 5/1 : 36/112 (32.1%) for 63pts (+56.2%)
  • in October : 27/93 (29%) for 70.6pts (+185.7%)
  • those returning from a break of 5 to 8 months are 12/53 (22.6%) for 23.3pts (+43.9%)
  • at Class 2 : 6/40 (15%) for 5.93pts (+14.8%)
  • 9 yr olds are 11/38 (29%) for 70.6pts (+185.7%)
  • those competing for a prize worth £25k to £40k are 3/16 (18.75%) for 14.46pts (+90.4%)
  • previous course and distance winners are 5/15 (33.3%) for 25.88pts (+172.5%)
  • and here at HQ : 3/10 (30%) for 15.32pts (+153.2%)

...AND...if you wanted just a handful of bets each year with a high strike rate and high yield, then Sam Twiston-Davies on those priced at 5/2 to 5/1 on Good ground or softer in September/October is 16 from 40 (40% SR) for 37.17pts (+92.9% ROI) with those coming off a break of 5 to 8 months winning 4 of 12 933.3%) for 9.64pts (+72%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Foxtail Hill @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by half a dozen firms at 5.25pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st January 2018

Saturday's Result :

11.30 Lingfield : Joegogo @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 11/4 Led ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra closing stages.

Our first pick for 2018 runs in New Year's Day's...

2.35 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arthurs Gift @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 3m on Heavy ground worth £15,640 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has won each of his last three starts, all under today's jockey Tom Humphries (claiming a useful 7lbs) including a course and distance success here in this grade last time out, 17 days ago, taking the horse's record under today's conditions to...

  • 3/5 in fields of 8-11 runners & 3/4 after a break of just 8-30 days
  • No run on heavy, but 2/4 on soft & 3/3 with today's jockey
  • 2/3 at Class 2 & 1/1 here at Cheltenham
  • 1/1 at this trip, leading to 1/1 over C&D (that win LTO!)

His trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record on heavy ground with his handicappers winning 36 of 228 (15.8% SR) for 57.6pts (+25.3% ROI) over the last 5 years, including...

  • males : 35/209 (16.75%) for 71.3pts (+34.1%)
  • December to March : 31/187 (16.6%) for 72.8pts (+38.9%)
  • at trips of 3m to 3m2f : 13/82 (15.9%) for 24.8pts (+30.3%)

AND...males running 3m to 3m2f in December to March are 12/60 (20% SR) for 42.3pts (+70.6% ROI)

Also, since 2010, Nigel's LTO-winning handicap hurdlers are 27/118 (22.9% SR) for 23.7pts (+20.1% ROI) when sent off at odds ranging from 13/8 to 8/1 (we should be safe there!), from which...

  • those who ran in the last 45 days are 24/101 (23.8%) for 22.4pts (+22.1%)
  • males are 25/100 (25%) for 27.9pts (+27.9%)
  • at 3m/3m0.5f : 6/25 924%) for 18.8pts (+75.2%)
  • at Class 2 : 8/24 (33.3%) for 20.8pts (+86.8%)
  • and on heavy ground : 5/20 (25%) for 6.8pts (+34%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Arthurs Gift @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available from Betfair & Boylesports at 7.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st January 2016

Stat of the Day, 1st January 2016

Thursday's Result :

1.10 Warwick : Battle Dust @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (With leader, led narrowly after 1st, headed narrowly 4 out (usual 5 out), ridden after 3 out, regained lead before next, joined last, headed flat, kept on, just held)

Friday's runner goes in the...

1.55 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Village Vic @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Village Vic comes here off the back of a hat trick of handicap chase victories, the latest of which was a 4.5 length success over this course and distance in a similar Grade 3 contest on soft ground 20 days ago.

His trainer, Philip Hobbs is in good form with 7 winners from 19 in the last fortnight, whilst today's jockey Richard Johnson is 8 from 32 in the same time period, whilst together Hobbs & Johnson have 5 winners and 3 placers from just 10 runners over the fortnight.

Over the last four years, Cheltenham has been a happy hunting ground for the Hobbs' runners, especially under today's conditions. Over the 4 years, his runners here priced at 6/4 to 9/1 are 30/124 (24.2% SR) for 66.4pts (+53.6% ROI) and more specifically, they are...

  • 29/120 (24.2% SR) for 67.5pts (+56.3% ROI) from male runners
  • 26/93 (28% SR) for 66.7pts (+71.7% ROI) under Richard Johnson
  • 24/91 (26.4% SR) for 70.6pts (+77.6% ROI) beyond 2m4f
  • 21/83 (25.3% SR) for 70.9pts (+85.4% ROI) in handicaps
  • 20/67 (29.9% SR) for 71.9pts (+107.3% ROI) in chases
  • 10/43 (23.3% SR) for 23.7pts (+55.2% ROI) at Class 1
  • 13/39 (33.3% SR) for 36.3pts (+93.1% ROI) won last time out

In addition to the above, it should also be worth mentioning that over the last seven seasons, Philip Hobbs LTO winners returning to the scene of a past Course & Distance success are 12 from 51 (23.5% SR) for 19.5pts (+38.3% ROI) in handicaps, of which...

  • chasers are 7/35 (20% SR) for 15.2pts (+43.4% ROI)
  • Richard Johnson is 6/24 (25% SR) for 5pts (+20.8% ROI)
  • and runners here at Cheltenham are 2/5 (40% SR) for 13.12pts (+262.4%)

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 2.00 am is...

A 1pt win bet on Village Vic and that's at 7/2 BOG with Hills, whilst Ladbrokes are offering the same price, but don't go BOG until the morning of the race, so I advise you to...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 11th December 2015

Stat of the Day, 11th December 2015

Thursday's Result :

4.05 Chelmsford : Fable of Arachne @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 3/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 3f out, effort over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, held when not much room close home, beaten by a length)

Friday's selection runs in the...

2.55 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Monbeg Gold @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

1. Monbeg Gold is a lightly raced 5 yr old gelding who is clearly on the rise and comes here seeking a 38-day hat-trick after back to back wins over 2m7f on soft ground at Exeter, suggesting he'll handle conditions well enough here today.

He was a winner by 5 lengths 38 days ago beating a couple of subsequent winners and followed that up with an 18 lengths rout 8 days later, despite being eased right down in the closing stages.

Today's jockey Richard Johnson was on board both times (2/2 together) and the only slight negative from those last two runs was a tendency to jump to the left on occasions, so a left handed track might help cut out some wasted yardage.

2. Richard Johnson has, of course, been a major beneficiary of the retirement of AP McCoy, picking up rides from Jonjo O'Neill this year that he'd never have been offered and he has repaid that faith by winning 23 times from just 70 rides (32.9% SR) for level stakes profits of 35.7pts at an ROI of 51%.

3. Since 2009, Jonjo's handicap hurdlers who were winners last time out in the past 30 days are 49 from 146 (33.6% SR) for 58.5pts (+40% ROI) profit, of which...

  • those who last ran 16 to 30 days ago are 27/87 (31% SR) for 63.4pts (+72.9% ROI)
  • those competing at trips of 2m7.5f to 3m2f are 17/51 (33.33% SR) for 45.5pts (+89.3% ROI)
  • and those running at 2m7.5f to 3m2f, 16 to 30 days after their last run are 13/33 (39.4% SR) for 52.8pts (+160.1% ROI)

4. Since the start of 2012, male handicap hurdlers who won a handicap hurdle by 4 lengths or more last time out in the previous 3 to 60 days have won again on 263 of 1015 (25.9% SR) occasions producing level stakes profits of 232.3pts (+22.9% ROI), of which...

  • those running at trips beyond 2m6f are 66/267 (24.7% SR) for 75.7pts (+28.4% ROI)
  • Class 2 runners are 20/99 (20.2% SR) for 50.6pts (+51.1% ROI)
  • runners at Cheltenham are 8 from 52 (15.4% SR) for 62pts (+119.3% ROI)

5. And following on from the general stat above, we can be more specific by looking those male handicap hurdlers who were LTO winners 3 to 60 days ago who fit a more strict set of rules, ie those aged 4 to 8, carrying 9-13 to 10-13 and rated (OR) 81 to 130.

These pop up as winners very often and since the start of 2012 they are 180/860 (20.9% SR) for 136.2pts (+15.8% ROI) profit and as you'd expect from 860 qualifiers, there are plenty of different angles to explore, but with the clock ticking, I'm just going to give you the following five...

  • those priced at 10/1 or shorter are 173/712 (24.3% SR) for 148.3pts (+20.8% ROI)
  • those who last ran 16 to 30 days ago are 78/404 (19.3% SR) for 120pts (+29.7% ROI)
  • those carrying 10-11 to 10-13 are 62/288 (21.5% SR) for 59.3pts (+20.6% ROI)
  • on good to soft ground they are 30/151 (19.9% SR) for 47.3pts (31.3% ROI)
  • those trained by Jonjo O'Neill are 9/26 (34.6% SR) for 19.4pts (+74.7% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 10.10pm?

A 1pt win bet on Monbeg Gold @ 9/2 BOG with Hills BetVictor and/or Paddy Power, whilst Ladbrokes are matching that price, but won't go BOG until morning. However,  to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 14th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 14th November 2015

Friday's Result :

5.45 Wolverhampton : Sign of the Kodiac @ 3/1 BOG : 2nd at 3/1 (Tracked leading pair, effort over 1f out, soon ridden, led inside final furlong, kept on, headed and no extra towards finish, beaten by a length)

Saturday's selection runs in the...

3.35 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Herbert Park @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

This horse is both progressive and unexposed after five starts in which he has been in the first two home on each occasion, winning three times in a sequence reading 21121. He is 121 over hurdles, having won over 2m1f (soft) on his hurdling debut when beating the subsequent Fred Winter winner Qualando.

He then proved his versatility by winning over 3m 0.5f on good ground last time out when landing a novice hurdle at Kempton at the end of March. He has won twice from four races under today's jockey Tom Scudamore and looks potentially well treated off a mark of 132 for his handicap debut.

In addition to his own proven ability, he has the benefit of being trained by David Pipe, who has a decent record at this track (particularly at this meeting) and since the start of 2010, 39 of David's 347 runners (11.2% SR) to have run at NH HQ have been winners, producing level stakes profits of 70pts at an ROI of 20.2%.

David's horses do so well here that there is a myriad of angles you could choose to follow to back up the selection, but I'm "only" going to give you a dozen! After all, I wouldn't want to overload you with numbers! So, the following stats derived from the original 347 runners all apply to Herbert Park today...

  1. Males are 39/333 (11.7% SR) for 84pts (+25.2% ROI)
  2. Handicappers are 22/246 (8.9% SR) for 64.7pts (+26.3% ROI)
  3. Those carrying over 11st are 24/193 (12.4% SR) for 59.9pts (+31% ROI)
  4. Hurdlers are 16/167 (9.6% SR) for 32.2pts (+19.3% ROI)
  5. Those rated (OR) 120 to 138 are 20/158 (12.7% SR) for 147.2pts (+93.1% ROI)
  6. Those without a run in the previous 2 months are 24/122 (19.7% SR) for 142pts (+116.4% ROI)
  7. Those who won last time out are 12/85 (14.1% SR) for 4.5pts (+5.3% ROI)
  8. The November meeting runners are 16/73 (21.9% SR) for 85pts (+116.4% ROI)
  9. Those running over the 2m5f trip are 8/70 (11.4% SR) for 37.5pts (+53.6% ROI)
  10. 5yr olds are 8/60 (13.3% SR) for 24.2pts (40.3% ROI)
  11. Class 3 runners are 7/43 (16.3% SR) for 65.6pts (+152.6% ROI)
  12. Those dropping down in trip by 2 to 3.5 furlongs are 8/24 (33.33% SR) for 108.5pts (+452% ROI)

And breathe!

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Herbert Park at 5/1 BOG with Hills, as they're currently the best on offer, whilst 9/2 BOG is generally available. But to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 16th April 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th April 2015

Team Skelton were at it again at Cheltenham on Wednesday afternoon as Long House Hall absolutely hosed up to win by 16 lengths without even having to be ridden. He'd been turned out quickly ahead of a hike in the weights, which is now likely to be massive, so don't be surprised if he doesn't run again within the next few days.

He was even a bit keen early on and had to be restrained, so might still have more to come over a longer trip, but that's not for me to call. All I can say is that it's another 3.5pts in the bag as this purple patch continues with the added satisfaction of beating SP by half a point.

Same location for Thursday's pick, but a longer trip over bigger obstacles in the...

5.00 Cheltenham:

Where I'm backing A Good Skin at 9/2 with Stan James (please note, SJ are non-BOG until 10.00am, but I think this will shorten & 4/1 BOG is widely available), as the horse bids to win back to back chases in the space of a fortnight.

He's trained by Tom George, whose record in handicap chases since the start of 2011 with horses priced in the 2/1 to 8/1 range reads 70 winners from 354 runners with the 19.8% strike rate giving rise to level stakes profits of 69pts at an ROI of 19.5%.

When today's jockey Paddy Brennan is in the saddle, however, the results are even better. 56 winners from 247 represents a 22.7% strike rate and the 83.2pts profits are 33.7% return on your money, which is hardly surprising as the team are profitable to back blindly over fences.

Since 2010 the George/Brennan/Handicap Chase equation looks like this at all odds  : 84/442 (19.9% SR) for 47.33pts (+11.22% ROI), which is nice little thing to keep an eye out for. They excel at Classes 3 & 4, they do really well around this type of trip, but more importantly, they just make money!

I said at the top of the piece that A Good Skin was a winner a fortnight ago: that was at Ludlow, when he beat Loose Chips by three parts of a length, but don't be fooled into thinking that was a hard race to win for him. He hit the last fence quite hard when 4 to 5 lengths clear, lost his momentum and idled on the run in and was still able to repel the challenger.

A step up in trip and something to challenger him should bring more out of him today.

And then there's the knowledge that since 2008, Tom George's handicap chasers who won their last race in the previous 30 days went on to win again on 18 of 79 (22.8% SR) occasions for level stakes profits of 13.4pts (+16.9% ROI), so there's another tactic to look out for.

Those such runners who ran at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 won 15 of 58 (25.9% SR) for 17.3pts (+29.8% ROI), while Paddy Brennan rode 15 winners from 51 (29.4% SR) for 21pts (+41.2% SR) and when Paddy was riding a 6/4 to 7/1 shot, he was successful 14 times from just 40 efforts, a fantastic 35% strike rate yielding 29.8pts profit at an ROI of 74.4%.

The George/Brennan alliance is in good nick, landing a couple of winners last week before a narrow defeat with Saint Are finishing runner-up in the Grand National and they had a 6/1 success here at Cheltenham on Wednesday with their only runner of the day, Whats Happening.

Stan James are currently best priced at 9/2, but that won't go BOG until 10.00am, but I'm taking that now, because I think A Good Skin will contract in the market, but if you want/need the BOG security, 4/1 BOG is readily available and I'll be using that for official results.

But as always, do check that's still available by...

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Stat of the Day, 15th April 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th April 2015

Purple Harry ran an OK sort of race at Carlisle on Tuesday, but was a bit flat in the middle section before staying on from 2 out to close the gap that had opened up between himself and the leading pair.

The problem was that he'd already lost the race by that point, but dug deep to finish the 3m1f quite strongly in third place, having made up plenty of ground to get within a couple of lengths off the runner-up.

OK runs don't put points on the board, though, so we'll need a little more from Wednesday's runner, who goes in the...

3.15 Cheltenham:

And a 7/2 BOG wager on Team Skelton with Long House Hall, who made a winning UK/yard debut, when landing a 2m 3f handicap hurdle by 8 lengths at Market Rasen nine days ago,all of which will become relevant shortly.

Firstly, both Dan & Harry Skelton are in good touch of late, Dan has saddled up 12 winners from 51 in the past month, whilst Harry has ridden 8 winners from 39 in that same period. Together they are 7/34, to continue their excellent record together, details of which you're probably already aware, so I'll spare you those figures at least!

Dan Skelton only had his first runner nineteen and a half months ago, but his record in NH handicaps has been excellent with 55 winners from 277 runners (19.9% SR) yielding level stakes profits of 13.6pts at an ROI of 4.9%. The profit margins might be low, but they are from blind backing every runner and we always look for a better angle! 😀

We can immediately focus on Dan's hurdlers and this improves the figures to 23/121 (19% SR) for 18.6pts (+15.3% ROI) and if we then only considered those in my usual starting price range of evens to 12/1, we have 23 winners from 97 runners (23.7% SR) for 42.6pts (+43.9% ROI) from a very manageable average of 5 bets per month. Incidentally Harry's contribution to that 23/97 record is 16 winners from 70 (22.9% SR) for 46.4pts (+66.3% SR).

Another positive from his win last time out is that male handicap hurdlers who won by four lengths or more last time out in the previous 3 to 60 days have gone on to double up on 221 on 867 occasions (25.5% SR) for profits of 178pts (+20.5% ROI) since the start of 2012, Dan Skelton is 3/7 with such horses.

Also, it's worth noting that when Dan turns a horse back out within 4 to 15 days of a top four finish, he has been successful 23 times from 67 attempts (34.3% SR) for 31.4pts (+46.8% ROI) profit with those sent off between evens and 7/1 winning 19 of 48 (39.6% SR) for 32.5pts (+67.7% ROI). Those in that price bracket who won last time out are 8/18 (44.4% ROI) for 11.3pts (+62.9% ROI) profit.

As I said earlier, Long House Hall is 1/1 in the UK and 1/1 for Dan Skelton. He's also 2/6 over hurdles, 2/5 on good ground, 2/3 in a hood and 2/3 when tongue tied. This is a slight step up in trip and class, but he was so comfortable last time out, that I fancy him to take this at 7/2 BOG, a price available with Betfred, BetVictor, Coral & Totesport, but as always...

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Stat of the Day, 1st January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 1st January 2015

Happy New Year everyone!

Last Shadow was denied the "honour" of being our last runner of 2014, as the Uttoxeter card fell foul of the weather. He now goes in today's 2.55 Exeter, where he has a decent chance of at least a place, but I'm not going there with him today: competitive 18-runner handicaps are not the way I like to play SotD.

Plus I did actually like Thundering Home for a place at a decent price (14/1 BOG) in that race, so I'm leaving that one for SotD purposes and aiming a little higher with a tilt at the...

2.30 Cheltenham:

Which is also a very competitive affair, but only ten runners are expected to tackle 3 miles in this Class 2 handicap hurdle and with stamina doubts about several of the competitors here, I'm siding with the 100/30 BOG shot Southfield Vic, who is trained by Paul Nicholls and will be ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies today, just as he was when winning by 13 lengths at Taunton over 3m 0.5f on soft ground three weeks ago.

Trainer and jockey are both in good form...

Paul Nicholls' horses have won 8 of their 37 races (21.6% SR) in the last fortnight, whilst Sam has ridden 7 winners from 31 (22.6% SR) in that same time. Together they have teamed up on 21 horses, winning 5 times (23.8% SR)

In fact, 2014 was a very good year for the partnership...

As Sam rode to victory fourteen times on Paul's handicappers from a total of 84 rides. This 1-in-6 strike rate accumulated reasonable level stakes profits of 11.04pts at Betfair SP (our closest approximation to BOG prices, although BOG results are invariably better!), representing a return of 13.14% on stakes invested.

That's not a bad return from a "big-name" trainer, but if you only considered those sent off in the 2/1 to 11/1 bracket, the 10 winners from 68 is a slightly lower strike rate of 14.7%, but the profits of 19.4pts equate to an ROI of 28.5% and more profit from fewer bets is always the way forward!

Mr. Nicholls fares very well here at Cheltenham...

...especially in handicap hurdle races, where his record since 2008 reads 20 winners from 148 runners (13.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 15.31pts (+10.34% ROI). As above, these aren't massive returns, but are still decent for a trainer whose runners are often overbet.

His Class 1 runners let the stats down slightly, probably due to the intensely competitive nature of those races, so if we exclude the Class 1 events, we are left with a far more palatable 16 winners from 89 (18% SR) and increased profits of 22.7pts (+25.5% ROI). Once again, if we impose a simple odds filter, we can restrict our betting to the runners priced 2/1 to 9/1 and still have 14 winners from 55 (25.5% SR) for 33.9pts (+61.6% ROI) profit.

Southfield Vic makes his handicap bow today...

Since 2008, Paul Nicholls' has tasted success with 57 of his 274 (20.8% SR) handicap debutants, recording profits of 78.2pts along the way at an ROI of 28.6%. Here at Cheltenham, that record is 10/52 (19.2% SR) for 16pts (+30.7% ROI) profit. His Class 2 handicap debutants are 13/47 (27.7% SR) for 44.6pts (+94.8% ROI), whilst those priced up at odds of evens to 11/1 have won 54 of 232 (23.3% SR) races for 87.5pts (+37.7% ROI) profit.

I could, of course, make several profitable permutations from those handicap debut stats, but I won't bore you with the detials, but I will end this section with this...Paul Nicholls' handicap debutants running here at Cheltenham priced from 2/1 to 8/1 are 10/37 (27% SR) for 31pts (+83.7% ROI) profit.

Southfield Vic was a winner over a similar trip three weeks ago...

And since 2008, Paul Nicholls' handicap hurdlers running over a trip within 1 furlong (above or below!) of a win 11 to 60 days ago, have gone on to record a successive win on 20 of 70 (28.6% SR) occasions, producing level stakes profits of 58.6pts (+83.7% ROI) in the process, whilst those sent here to Cheltenham under the same circumstances are 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 52.9pts (+352.7% ROI) profit.

Southfield Vic proved last time out that he has the stamina required to deal with this trip today, and conditions should be slightly easier for him here. he was a comfortable 13 lengths winner that day, proving he gets the trip, but he's still unexposed as a stayer. He was a good second on his hurdles debut on my wedding anniversary back in March, when beaten by just a length at Wincanton over 2m6f on good to soft ground.

He was headed late on that day by the winner, Saddlers Encore who went on to win again next time out. Our runner then had an 8 month break before reappearing at Ludlow and although he needed the run, was still good enough to fill the runner-up berth once more. He had Brownville a neck behind him and Summer Hawk 24 lengths back that day and those two both went on to win next time out, as did, our runner, of course.

He's now got a record of 221 over hurdles, likes a bit of cut in the ground (1221 on good to soft or soft), he's also 1221 in races of 10 or fewer runners and has won under the steering of Sam Twiston-Davies already.

Readers of our other excellent form tools will instantly spot that I'm taking on the shortlist horse, Ulzana's Raid here and whilst I'm not decrying that horse's chances, I just feel that Southfield Vic has been leniently treated off an opening mark of just 127 and that the Shortlist horse might just struggle to concede 20lbs to our runner and he's also up another 4lbs for winning over course and distance by just a nose last time out.

I might have got it wrong, but I think the shortlist horse is now in the assessor's grip and that Southfield Vic is the one to beat here. So, for me (and you, hopefully!), it's a 1pt win bet on Southfield Vic at 100/30 BOG. That price is available with both Paddy Power and Coral, so why not...

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