Tag Archives: Chelmsford racecourse

Stat of the Day, 12th December 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

1.10 Lingfield : Highland Acclaim @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Keen tracked leader, led over 4f out, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

7.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Muraaqeb @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, it's a simple "horses for courses" approach today, as we have an in-form 5 yr old gelding running in what look to be favoured conditions. His last four races have ended 1213, culminating in a very decent effort at Wolverhampton five days ago. This was despite setting out from the widest draw on a lesser preferred surface over a slightly shorter than optimal trip after being off track 113 days.

Now back on the Polytrack turned out quickly, things look more well suited for him today, as I'll hopefully highlight now...

I'll start with his overall All-Weather record, which is very good. He has made the frame in 10 of 19 starts (52.6%), going on to win 6 times (31.6% SR) with those wins generating 55.66pts profit at a very healthy ROI of 292.9% and with today's conditions in mind, his A/W record includes...

  • 6 wins, 4 places from 17 in fields of 9-15 runners : a 35.3% SR producing 57.66pts @ 339.2% ROI
  • 6 + 4 / 16 at Class 6 = 37.5% SR and 58.66pts @ 366.6%
  • 6 + 4 / 16 in cheekpieces = 37.5% SR and 58.66pts @ 366.6%
  • 5 + 3 / 16 going left handed = 31.25% SR and 44.22pts @ 276.4%
  • 4 + 3 /13 in handicaps = 30.8% SR and 29.8pts @ 229.2%
  • 5 + 2 / 9 on Polytrack = 55.6% SR and 41.86pts  @ 465.1%
  • 5 + 2 / 8 over 1m2f/1m3f = 62.5% SR and 42.85pts @ 535.6%
  • 4 +1 / 6 here at Chelmsford = 66.6% SR and 30.42pts @ 507.1%
  • 4 +1 / 6 over 1m2f = 66.6% SR and 30.42pts @ 507.1%
  • 4 +1 / 6 over this course and distance = 66.6% SR and 30.42pts @ 507.1%
  • and 3 + 1 /5 when sent off at 6/1 or shorter = 60% SR and 16.17pts @ 323.4%

...and when wearing cheekpieces, going left handed on Polytrack over 1m2f in a Class 6 field of 11-15 runners within 10 days of his last run, he is 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 32.42pts (+810.6% ROI) profit, all over today's course and distance and all within the last eight months...

...backing up...a 1pt win bet on Muraaqeb @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday as was offered by Hills at 5.40pm on Wednesday, whilst SkyBet were next best at a half point shorter for those of you still able to get BOG from them. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 7.20 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

5.05 Wetherby : Theflyingportrait @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Chased leader, led before 3 out, headed next, weakened flat, lost 3rd towards finish)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.30 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Souter Johnnie @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Nursery for 2yo over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £5,175 to the winner...

Why?...

This 2 yr old gelding was a winner last time out when scoring over a mile on the Polytrack at Kempton a week ago. They way he stayed on strongly over the final half furlong suggests there's more to come and that today's step up in trip might paint him in an even better light.

He is trained by Richard Hughes and the yard looks to be in good nick right now, with 9 placers from 17 over the past fortnight including 4 winners, whilst the A/W runners have won 3 of 10 with 4 of the 7 losers making the frame.

More long-term, Richard's runners are 25/92 (27.2% SR) for 40pts (+43.5% ROI) when sent off shorter than 12/1 here at Chelmsford, with the following of relevance today...

  • 19/73 (26%) for 30.9pts (+42.3%) after a break of 6-60 days
  • 19/71 (26.8%) for 41.7pts (+58.8%) in 7-14 runner races
  • 13/42 (31%) for 38.15pts (+90.8%) during August-October
  • 10/27 (37%) for 31.3pts (+115.9%) with 2 yr olds
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 27pts (+90.1%) at trips of 1m/1m2f
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 16.8pts (+139.7%) in Nurseries
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.92pts (+99.1pts) stepping up in trip by 2-3 furlongs

Now, I know many of you like to see my data subsets combined into a composite angle, so you could take the top three from above ie horses who last ran 6-60 days earlier running in 7-14 runner contests during August to October and that would give you 11 winners from 29 (37.9% SR) for 34.8pts (+120.1% ROI), with the other 4 datasets producing...

  • 8/14 (57.1%) for 29.6pts (+211.3%) at 2 yrs old
  • 4/8 (50%) for 16.82pts (+210.3%) in Nurseries
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 11.16pts (+372%) over this 1m2f C&D
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 12.17pts (+608.5%) stepped up by 2-3 furlongs.

And finally for today, a quick look at the jockey booking, which seems positive to me as James Doyle fares really well on these young horses at the sharp end of the market, Numerically, he is 17 from 34 (50% SR) for 14.42pts (+42.4% ROI) on 2 yr olds sent off shorter than 5/1 here at Chelmsford and this record includes...

  • 15/27 (55.6%) for 16.81pts (+62.3%) at Classes 4/5
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 2.44pts (+34.9%) on LTO winners
  • 3/5 (60%) for 2.86pts (+57.2%) at Classes 4/5 on LTO winners
  • 3/3 (100%) for 4.7pts (+156.7%) on those last seen 1-10 days earlier
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 4.7pts (+156.7%) at Classes 4/5 on those last seen 1-10 days prior...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Souter Johnnie @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & Hills at 5.50pm on Wednesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd October 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

1.45 Bangor : Day of Roses @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 8/1 (In touch, headway 6 out, effort after 3 out, no extra approaching last)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ventura Royal @ 9/2 BOG 

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £5,111 to the winner...  

Why?...

Well, we've an in-form 4 yr old filly making a Polytrack (and A/W for that matter) debut off the back of two wins from her last three runs. Those wins came on Good to Firm ground and then on Soft/Heavy, so she's clearly very adaptable to going conditions.

She has three career wins to date, from which...

  • all 3 were in fields of 8-11 runners
  • all 3 were at Class 4/5 (1 x C4 & 2 x C5)
  • 2 were over trips beyond a mile
  • 2 were after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 2 were whilst wearing a hood
  • and 2 were at odds of 5/1 and shorter

Her jockey today, Jamie Spencer aka Mr Marmite, is also in sparkling form right now, with 20 placed finishes (44.4%) from 45 rides over the last 30 days, winning on 10 occasions (22.2% SR) generating 16.5pts profit from the winners at an ROI of 36.7%.

Jamie has also been pretty successful at this venue, both as Great Leighs and now under the Chelmsford City name, including 13 wins from 36 (36.1% SR) for 8.76pts (+24.3% ROI) profit when racing over 7 to 14 furlongs on horses sent off at 5/1 and shorter since the start of 2017, from which...

  • 9/19 (47.4%) for 13.3pts (+70.2%) on horses last seen 6-25 days earlier
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 15.4pts (+118.5%) at Class 5
  • and 6 from 7 (85.7%) for 13.3pts (+189.4%) on Class 5 runners returning from a 6-25 day break.

Our trainer today, David O'Meara, has a decent record of late when switching turf runners to the A/W for the first time with 15 winners from 81 such runners (18.5% SR) for 99.4pts (+122.7% ROI) profit since the start of 2017 and these include...

  • 14/66 (21.2%) for 75pts (+113.6%) at Classes 4-6
  • 11/62 (17.7%) for 48.5pts (+78.2%) at 6-45 days since last run
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 24.4pts (+93.8%) at odds of 7/1 and shorter
  • 8/39 (20.5%) for 52.3pts (+134.2%) during August-October
  • 7/36 (19.4%) for 50pts (+138.8%) at Class 5
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 36pts (+720%) from LTO winners...

...whilst those racing at Classes 4-6 at odds of 7/1 and shorter after a break of 6-45 days are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 26.7pts (+166.6% ROI) including 4 from 8 (50%) for 12.66pts (+158.3%) during August to October...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Ventura Royal @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & BetVictor at 6.45pm on Wednesday, although the first two won't actually be BOG until midnight. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2019

Friday's pick was...

5.10 Haydock : Young Fire @ 5/1 BOG non-runner (meeting abandoned)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

8.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Red Stripes @ 9/1 non-BOG until morning

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a very consistent (although not entirely prolific) 7 yr old gelding who arrives here having made the frame in 8 of his last 10 starts.

He was 3rd last time out, when beaten by 2 lengths in a Class 5 handicap on Good to Soft at Chepstow 16 days ago, a head in front of the 4th placed Pettochside, who his since anded another Class 5 Flat handicap, so I'm hoping the form pans out for our boy who now takes a drop in class on his return to the All-Weather, where he has won 9 of 81 contests.

His 9/81 A/W record includes of relevance today...

  • 9/75 in handicaps
  • 7/65 over 5f
  • 7/64 going left handed
  • 7/63 in blinkers
  • 6/35 on Polytrack
  • 6/25 at Chelmsford
  • 5/20 over course and distance
  • and 3/6 under today's jockey Seamus Cronin

His trainer, Lisa Williamson is also far from prolific if truth be told, but like pretty much most trainers, there is a niche where she does far better than her overall record would suggest. In Lisa's case, I look for the following filters to be in place...

...4-7 yr olds / Chelmsford / Class 3-6 handicaps / 5-7 furlongs / odds of 8-1 and shorter...

And such runners are 8/27 (29.6% SR) for 23.2pts (+85.9% ROI) since the start of 2017 and all of them are males, whilst...

  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 27.2pts (+118.3%) were running at 4-20 dslr
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 21.3pts (+88.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.78pts (+139.7%) with class droppers
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 3.07pts (+27.9%) from Red Stripes
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for11.57pts (+128.6%) were beaten by 1-3 lengths LTO
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 8.7pts (+174%) ran on the Flat LTO

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Red Stripes @ 9/1 non-BOG until morning as was available from SkyBet, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Friday with plenty of 17/2 elsewhere, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.20 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

3.15 Perth : Carrolls Milan @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Chased leaders, pushed along after 3 out, went 2nd before 2 out until 2 out, kept on same pace in 3rd)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Excellent George @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £5,531 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding well suited to the task ahead who is to be ridden for an in-form jockey riding for an in-form yard that has a good record at this venue. What could possibly go wrong?

Let me briefly add some numbers to the above opening gambit...

  • Jockey Marco Ghiani has 5 winners from 11 in the past week
  • Trainer Stuart Williams is 7 from 28 in the same period
  • and together, they are 11 from 61 (18% SR) for 117.1pts (+191.9% ROI) this year with a 4 from 7 return over the last seven days.

And the yard's record here at Chelmsford? 45 from 209 (21.5% SR) for 64.3pts (+30.7%ROI) wit runners sent off in the 5/4 to 9/1 price range, including...

  • 39/172 (22.7%) for 74.2pts (+43.1%) over trips of a mile and shorter
  • 37/160 (23.1%) for 56.5pts (+35.3%) with male runners
  • 25/101 (24.8%) for 140.1pts (+138.8%) in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 24/94 (25.5%) for 47.1pts (+50.1%) with 5-8 yr olds
  • 19/68 (27.9%) for 64.6pts (+95%) during September to December
  • 14/47 (29.8%) for 23.8pts (+50.8%) at Class 4
  • 9/34 (26.5%) for 17.6pts (+51.8%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 13pts (+433.3%) with Marco Ghiani in the saddle...

...from which, 3-8 yr olds males in 5-8 runners contests of a mile or shorter are 15/50 (30% SR) for 36.8pts (+73.6% ROI) including 5 from 12 (41.7%) for 7.47pts (+62.2%) at Class 4...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Excellent George @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 5.55pm on Wednesday and to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2019

Friday's pick was...

6.00 Doncaster : Benadalid @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Broke well, soon steadied and held up, pushed along and progress 2f out, ridden and weakened inside final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Intuitive @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 3,  A/W handicap for 3yo over 6f on Polytrack worth £9,704 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding has finishes 1132 in his four A/W runs to date and was only beaten by a length in a higher grade over this course and distance when last seen seven and a half weeks ago.

His trainer, James Tate has already had a couple of winners this week (wish I had!) and he is 48 from 116 (41.4% SR) for 72.7pts (+62.7% ROI) since the start of 2016 with horses sent off at 5/1 or shorter in A/W handicaps over trips shorter than 1m2f, including...

  • 28/62 (45.2%) for 49.6pts (+79.9%) since the start of 2018
  • 16/37 (43.2%) for 24.9pts (+67.3%) during August to October
  • 12/30 (40%) for 23.1pts (+77%) here at Chelmsford
  • and 8/18 (44.4%) for 20.8pts (+115.5%) from those dropping down a class

...with 5 winners from 7 (71.4% SR) producing 10pts (+143.1% ROI) here at Chelmsford during August to October in 2018/19...

...whilst more generally here at Chelmsford, James' handicappers sent off at 6/1 and shorter are 19/53 (35.9% SR) for 39.1pts (+73.7% ROI) including...

  • 16/40 (40%) for44.4pts (+111%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 21.7pts (+103.5%) this year
  • 9/18 (50%) for 19pts (+105.6%) during August to October
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 11.2pts (+159.8%) over this 6f course and distance...

...and in 2019 in fields of 6-11 runners, those horses above are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 25.2pts (+157.7% ROI).

The sharper-eyed amongst you (not sure if many of you actually read my waffle) might notice that both of the above sets of data also apply to James Tate's runner (Attainment) in the 4.30 race here at Chelmsford, too, but of the two for this column...

...I'm going with... a 1pt win bet on Intuitive @ 3/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.25pm on Friday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th September 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

4.30 Carlisle : Redarna @ 3/1 BOG 7th at 4/1 (Chased leader, ridden over 1f out, no extra)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Invincible Larne @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Polytrack worth £5,111 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3yo colt got off the mark last time out 36 days ago at Yarmouth, when pulling clear by some four lengths over 5 furlongs, suggesting that today's extra furlong should be within his capability. Winning jockey Pat Cosgrave keeps the ride today after that effort last time.

It's been pretty quiet at trainer Mick Quinn's yard of late with just 11 runners over the last seven weeks, but a return of 3 winners (27.3% SR) and 6.47pts (+58.8% ROI) suggests there are few (if any) problems there. Of that 3/11 return, those runners are 2/8 in handicaps, 2/6 over 6f and 2/4 from his 3 yr olds.

He also doesn't send many out to run on the All-Weather, but since the start of 2017, his Class 5 A/W handicappers are 5 from 32 (15.6% SR) for 56.75pts profit at an ROI of 177.4%. Now that's not a large sample size, of course, but if you consider how he got those five winners, you might think that our pick is well suited/placed to run here today, as from that 5/32 record, they are...

  • 5/25 (20%) for 63.75pts (+255%) on Polytrack
  • 5/22 (22.7%) for 66.75pts (+303.4%) in fields of 9 or more runners
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 36pts (+300%) from male runners
  • 3/16 (18.75%) for 48.4pts (+302.7%) from his 3 yr olds
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 23.6pts (+214.5%) here at Chelmsford
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 11.4pts (+557%) with Pat Cosgrave in the saddle...

...and males in 9+ runner fields on poly are 4/10 (40% SR) for 37.95pts (+379.5% ROI), including 3/6 (50%) here at Chelmsford, 2/4 (50%) from 3yrs olds and 1/1 (100%) using Pat Cosgrave...

...who himself is in decent touch right now, having ridden 5 winners from 18 (27.8% SR) over the last dozen days, including 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 6.1pts (+55.5% ROI) on fancied (ie 4/1 and shorter) runners, from which...

  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 8.7pts (+124.3%) in fields of 7-12 runners
  • 2/5 (40%) for 4.17pts (+83.4%) on the A/W (all on Poly)
  • 2/5 (40%) for 1.53pts (+30.6%) at Class 5
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 7.94pts (+397%) over a 6f trip...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Invincible Larne @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365 at 6.30pm on Wednesday. If you can't get on, there's plenty of 11/4 knocking about and to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th August 2019

Thursday's pick was...

5.10 Brighton : Wiley Post @ 4/1 BOG  3rd at 10/11 (Held up in 4th, ridden to chase leaders 2f out, soon one pace, stayed on to take 3rd towards finish, not quite reach front pair)

Friday's pick runs in the...

9.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fitzwilly @ 13/2 non-BOG until morning

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m on Polytrack worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding has been around the block a few times already and probably found 2m4f too demanding when finishing fourth LTO 23 days ago. In his defence, he had won his previous race a week earlier over a more suitable 2m0.5f which took his career tally to 7 wins at Class 5/6, 6 wins at 2m/2m0.5f and 6 wins in the July-September period of the year, suggesting he should at least be familiar with today's task.

His jockey Scott McCullagh is in good nick winning 7 of 31 (22.6% SR) for 6.8pts (+21.9% ROI) over the last four weeks, including 3 wins from 13 for today's trainer, Mick Channon, who himself is 8/45 (17.8% SR) for 45.3pts (+100.6% ROI) in handicaps here at Chelmsford over the last five years.

But it's neither of those stats I'm primarily concerned with today (although they do back up the selection, of course) : I'm more interested in Mr Channon's success with A/W handicap stayers, particularly those racing over trips of 1m6f and beyond at what I'd call suitable odds for a public selection ie 5/2 to 9/1 (my usual range for SotD picks), as such runners are 11 from 43 (25.6% SR) for 32.9pts (+76.5% ROI) since 2011 and these include of relevance today...

  • 9/36 (25%) for 21.67pts (+60.2%) over 2m/2m0.5f
  • 8/32 (25%) for 26.8pts (+83.6%) after 6-30 days rest
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 21.5pts (+74.3%) on Polytrack
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 22pts (+100%) since 2016
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 29.4pts (+172.9%) in fields of 10 or more runners
  • 5/20 (25%) for 21pts (+105%) from runners unplaced LTO
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 20.6pts (+137.5%) at Class 6
  • and 4 from 10 (40%) for 25.96pts (+259.6%) during August to October...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fitzwilly @ 13/2 non-BOG until morning as was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Thursday with plenty of 11/2 BOG available elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 9.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2019

Monday's pick was...

2.30 Ayr : Hard Solution @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Held up, effort when no room from over 2f out to inside final furlong, kept on last 100yds, nearest finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.50 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cantiniere @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Standard ground worth £5693 to the winner...

Why?...

Cantiniere is a Godolphin runner having her second start in a UK handicap. She's trained by Saeed bin Suroor, who is in excellent form at the moment. Indeed his form reads:

Last 14 days: 5 wins, 3 more places from 18 runners (28% win, +0.76, A/E 1.21, IV 2.49 - 2.5 times as likely to have a winner than the norm)
Last 30 days: 14 wins, 6 more places from 44 runners (32% win, +18.18, A/E 1.3, IV 2.94)

bin Suroor also has a 30.57% five year win record at the track.

With second time handicap starters (this filly strictly isn't, but she had an abortive effort in Meydan), he is 14/56 (25%)

Hayley Turner gets the ride and the pairing have an excellent record together. In the last year, they've won 7 from 21 (33%, 6 more placed) when teaming up (+7.87, A/E 1.06, IV 3.2).

Cantiniere's sire, War Front, is a bit of an all weather, erm, stud. He's got a 20% win record in the last two years on the artificial surfaces (40 from 200).

Positive stats for trainer, jockey and sire...

...give us... a 1pt win bet on Cantiniere @ 5/1 BOG as was available at 6.00pm on Monday with Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.50 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th July 2019

Thursday's pick was...

3.30 Haydock : Tukhoom @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Went left and bumped start, chased leaders, 2nd entering final 5f, ridden and every chance 2f out, hung left soon after, lost 2nd inside final furlong, weakened towards finish)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tarseekh @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £3493 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, it's sign of how tough stat-based punting is right now, when I'm drawn into a third consecutive biggish-field, low-grade 7f handicap, but hopefully the numbers will be in our favour this evening with a 6 yr old gelding who has been running consistently well of late, which is about as much as you expect/hope for at this level, with a 1442 record in his last four efforts over course and distance.

That run of form suggests he both "gets" and likes the track here at Chelmsford, which has been a happy hunting ground for trainer Charlie Wallis. This is starkly highlighted by looking at the performance of all Jack's handicappers since the start of 2016, where 54 winners from 535 (10.1% SR) for a loss of 91.2pts (17.1% of all stakes) at betfair SP (even worse at ISP, obviously) isn't anything to shout from the rooftops about...

...yet 42.6% of all those winners have come from 28.4% of the runners when looking solely at his record here at Chelmsford, which currently stands at a more than acceptable 23/152 (15.1% SR) for 50.5pts (+33.4% ROI), from which...

  • 22/127 (17.3%) for 63.5pts (+50.4%) at 3-45 dslr
  • 19/74 (25.7%) for 39.3pts (+53.1%) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1 - actually not a bad angle to pick, if you only wanted one.
  • 18/104 (17.3%) for 52.4pts (+50.4%) at 5-7yo
  • 15/86 (17.4%) for 31.2pts (+36.2%) at Class 6/7
  • 12/73 (16.4%) for 17.7pts (+24.2%) at Class 6
  • 8/45 (17.8%) for 28.7pts (+65.3%) in 2019
  • 6/37 (16.2%) for 6.8pts (+18.4%) at 6yo
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 4pts (+400%) with Jack Mitchell in the saddle

...and a micro based around the above categories? Well, those aged 4 or older sent off at 6/4 to 12/1 in a Class 6/7 handicap after a break of just 3-16 days are 11/26 (42.3%) for 48.7pts (+187.4% ROI), which might be a little too specific for some of you...

...but it does give us... a 1pt win bet on Tarseekh @ 4/1 BOG as offered by Bet365 & SkyBet at 6.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!