Tag Archives: Charlie Appleby

Stat of the Day, 8th September 2018

Friday's Pick was...

6.00 Musselburgh : Zeshov @ 11/4 BOG WON at 6/4 (Raced wide tracked leaders, led approaching 2f out, ridden and ran on)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ghostwatch @ 5/1 BOG  

In the 11-runner, Class 2 Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap) for 3yo over 1m4f on Good ground, worth £62250 to the winner...

Why?

Going to keep this one relatively simple with this in-form 3 yr old who has 3 wins and 2 places from 6 runs this year, including wins at both 1m4f and 1m6f, ensuring stamina shouldn't be an issue today.

He has also won at this grade (LTO 14 days ago) and he has 2 wins and 2 places from the four occasions that William Buick has been in the saddle.

His trainer Charlie Appleby is bang amongst the winners again with a 4 from 8 record over the last fortnight, from which Mr Buick is 4 from 7, whilst over the last three seasons, the Appleby string are 17 from 100 (17% SR) for 37.6pts (+37.6% ROI) profit here at Ascot, from which...

  • William Buick is 12/62 (19.4%) for 36.7pts (+59.2%)
  • at Class 2 : 5/38 (13.2%) for 40.8pts (+107.3%)
  • over 1m4f course and distance : 4/19 (21.1%) for 26.9pts (+141.8%)

And finally, I think it's worth noting that Charlie Appleby's LTO winners running at Class 1/2 over 8.5 to 13.5 furlongs are 24 from 94 (25.5% SR) for 49.2pts (+52.3% ROI), including...

  • 3 yr olds at 12/45 (26.7%) for 52.3pts (+116.2%)
  • under William Buick : 12/43 (27.9%) for 38.1pts (+88.6%)
  • at Class 2 : 12/38 (31.6%) for 19.4pts (+51.1%)
  • in 3 yo only races : 7/32 (21.9%) for 29.1pts (+90.9%)
  • after a break of less than 3 weeks : 10/25 (40%) for 27.7pts (+110.8%)
  • and here at Ascot : 3/12 (25%) for 12.4pts (+103.4%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Ghostwatch @ 5/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair, BetStars, BetVictor & Paddy Power as of 7.20pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th July 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.00 Newmarket : Wissahickon @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 2/1 (Keen, raced wide early, tracked leader, pushed along over 3f out, ridden and weakened over 1f out)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.15 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blue Point @ 10/3 BOG

In a 14-runner, Group 1 contest for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £283550 to the winner...

Why?

An impressive display last time out when landing the Kings Stand over 5f at Royal Ascot 25 days ago for his first win in a Group 1 contest. He semed to get stronger as the race progressed and certainly didn't look like he'd been off the track for almost 9 months!

I think he'll come on again for having had a run and the step back up to 6f looks a logical one to me and his career stats suggest he'll relish the challenge faced today, as so far his record includes...

  • 5 wins & 2 places from 9 over 6f
  • 5 wins & 2 places from 8 under jockey William Buick
  • 4 wins & 2 places from 7 on Good to Firm ground
  • 4 wins & 1 place from 6 as favourite
  • 2 wins from 3 in July/August
  • 2 from 2 running 16-30 days after his last effort
  • 1 win & 1 place in fields of 12 or more runners
  • 1 from 1 this season
  • has a Gr 1 success to his name

He is trained by Charlie Appleby, whose overall record is both excellent and well-documented, so I won't bore you by repeating it, but you might not know that his record at this July meeting here at Newmarket stands at 9/38 (23.7% SR) for 17.43 pts (+45.9% ROI) profit over the last three (inc this one) years. And I'll keep this simple, but of those 38 entries...

  • those sent off at Evens to 7/1 are 9/29 (31%) for 26.43pts (+91.1%)
  • over 6/7 furlongs : 7/24 (29.2%) for 21.11pts (+88%)
  • ridden by William Buick : 4/15 (26.7%) for 8.72pts (+58.1%)
  • in fields of 12-14 runners : 5/11 (45.5%) for 23.57pts (+214.3%)

...and Appleby / Buick / July Meeting / 2016-18 / 6 to 7 furlongs / Evens to 7-1 / 12-14 runners = 3/4 (75% SR) for 15.77pts (+394.2% ROI)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Blue Point @ 10/3 BOGa price available from Bet365 & SunBets at 5.05pm on Friday with plenty of 3/1 BOG available elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st June 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

7.10 Chelmsford : Tropics @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 3/1 (Unruly in stalls, fly leapt start and lost all chance, always in rear)

Next up is Thursday's...

3.40 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wild Illusion @ 11/4 BOG

A 10-runner, Group 2 Fillies Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Good To Firm ground worth £113420 to the winner...

Why?

With the obvious caveat about the ground maybe not suiting her (she'd probably be a fair shorter than 11/4 on softer), it's hard for me to look beyond this likeable, classy filly. She's already a Group 1 winner via last season's Prix Marcel Boussac and with two creditable runs in defeat at that level this season, she brings the best form to the table today.

That form was a decent fourth in the 1,000 Guineas before finishing as runner-up in the recent Oaks beating two of today's rivals in the process. William Buick is in the saddle and he's in great form right now, including winning twice at this festival already this week : one of which was for trainer Charlie Appleby and it's their relationship that I'm going to look at here.

I'm keeping it simple today, but the Appleby / Buick / Class 1 axis stands at 21 winners from 124 (16.9% SR) for 15.92pts (+12.8% ROI) profit since the start of 2016, so they're a fairly safe long-term bet. With respect to today's contest, those 124 runners are...

  • 19/100 (19%) for 31.9pts (+31.9%) after a top 4 finish LTO
  • 15/70 (21.4%) for 3.6pts (+5.1%) at odds of 5/4 to 6/1 (so they win plenty but get overbet)
  • 11/64 (17.2%) for 18.2pts (+28.4%) when tilting for prizes in excess of £40k
  • 10/60 (16.6%) for 12.8pts (+21.3%) when racing 11-30 days since their last run
  • 11/50 (22%) for 31.9pts (+63.8%) at the age of 3
  • 5/29 (17.2%) for 27.9pts (+96.2%) in June
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 15.4pts (+67.1%) here at Ascot
  • and 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.2pts (+107.4%) after running in a Group 1 race last time out.

And to be honest with you, those numbers allied to her form/ability is enough to convince me to part with my usual stake, but I can add another layer of data for reassurance via the fact that her "daddy" is the mighty Dubawi...

..and Dubawi offspring racing at Class 1 on the Flat over this 1m4f trip are 19/86 (22.1% SR) for 28.6pts (+33.3% ROI), from which...

  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 16/58 (27.6%) for 40.9pts (+70.5%)
  • competing for £50k+ : 10/53 (18.9%) for 14.1pts (+26.6%)
  • in June : 6/28 (21.4%) for 11.2pts (+40%)
  • at Ascot : 5/24 (20.8%) for 20.5pts (+85.5%)
  • at Group 2 : 6/18 (33.3%) for 27.3pts (+151.6%)
  • 11-20 days since last run : 5/18 (27.8%) for 20.04pts (+111.3%)
  • and here at Royal Ascot : 2/7 (28.6%) for 17.96pts (+256.6%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Wild Illusion @ 11/4 BOGwhich was widely available at 4.55pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

4.15 Kelso : Sudski Star @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 6/1 (Towards rear, reminder 4th, closed next, struggling before 3 out, stayed on approaching last, went 3rd towards finish)

We now continue with Thursday's...

4.35 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ghostwatch @ 4/1 BOG

An 8-runner, Class 3,  1m4½f  Flat Handicap (3yo) on good ground worth £11828 to the winner... 

Why?

Just three runs so far for this 3 yr old colt after finishing third in both starts as a two year old, both over 1m on good to soft ahead of a seasonal reappearance 19 days ago when winning a maiden over 1m4f despite coming off the back of a 226 day absence. He seemed to get the trip easily enough, but will, of course, need to find a bit more here on handicap debut.

The rest of the piece is centred around his trainer Charlie Appleby, about whom there are several threads of relevant data to suggest this horse should go well today, starting with...

...Charlie's record over the last 30 days...

...17 winners from 45 (37.8% SR) for 16.2pts (+35.9% ROI) suggests a yard in form and of these 45 runners :

  • on the Flat : 15/40 (37.5%) for 15.8pts (+39.6%)
  • handicappers : 6/17 (35.3%) for 6.58pts (+38.7%)
  • in Flat handicaps : 5/16 (31.25%) for 5.55pts (+34.7%)

...and now Charlie's handicappers having just a second run in a 90-day period...

...these are 35/153 (22.9% SR) for 62.9pts (+41.1% ROI), from which...

  • those ridden by today's jockey William Buick are 15/60 (25%) for 16.6pts (+27.7%)
  • those last seen 16-30 days earlier are 17/58 (29.3%) for 63.25pts (+109.1%)
  • LTO winners are 12/47 (25.5%) for 9.4pts (+20%)
  • Class 3 runners are 17/45 (37.8%) for 41.6pts (+92.5%)
  • in the month of May : 11/38 (29%) for 27pts (+71.1%)
  • and here at Chester : 1/1 (100%) for 1.22pts (+122%)

...then we'll look at Charlie's record on the Flat at trips of 1m3f to 1m5.5f over the last three seasons...

...where he is 30 from 110 (27.3% SR) for 92.1pts (+83.8% ROI), including...

  • in handicaps : 18/70 (25.7%) for 58.5pts (+83.5%)
  • in May : 9/24 (37.5%) for 17.9pts (+74.7%)
  • and at Class 3 : 6/19 (31.6%) for 10.03pts (+52.8%)

...next up is his record with handicap debutants at Classes 2 to 5 over trips of 1m2.5f to 1m6f...

..which shows 13 winners from 40 (32.5% SR) for 27.5pts (+68.8% ROI) with LTO winners scoring 10 times from 28 (35.7%) for 24.9pts (+88.8%).

...and I'll wrap up with his track record over the last seasons...

...with 5 of his 19 Chester runners (26.3% SR) winning to generate 2.19pts profit at an ROI of 11.5% (they clearly get backed!), from which handicappers fare best winning 4 of 11 (36.4%) for 7.15pts (+65%) profit.

...which all eventually steers us towards...a 1pt win bet on Ghostwatch @ 4/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor & Coral at 5.20pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th May 2018

Friday's Runner was...

7.30 Newcastle : Insurgence @ 13/2 BOG 8th at 5/1 (Led, headed over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

We end what has been a poor week with Saturday's...

6.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Night Castle @ 11/4 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 3,  1m Flat Handicap (3yo) on soft ground worth £7763 to the winner... 

Why?

We've got a 3 yr old who has made a good start to his career finishing 511 in his three outings to date and whilst he's never raced on turf before, he has shown versatility by running well on three different A/W tracks (Kempton, Newcastle & Lingfield).

He makes a handicap debut today for trainer Charlie Appleby, who is not only in good form of late, but has an excellent record here on Town Moor, making this venue probably the ideal pick for a turf/hcp debut for a 3 yr old.

Charlie's recent form stacks up like this...

  • 24/48 over the last 60 days
  • 13/28 over the last 30
  • and 2/5 in the past week

In addition/alongside the above, he's already 10/23 (43.5% SR) for 14.9pts (+64.7% ROI) for the "new" Flat (turf) season, including 1 from 2 here at Doncaster, a track where he is 25/122 (20.5% SR) for 20.4pts (+16.7% ROI) overall with his Doncaster handicappers winning 12 of 51 (23.5%) for 35.5pts at an ROI of some 69.5%.

Of these 51 Donny 'cappers...

  • males are 11/42 ( 26.2%) for 41.3pts (+98.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 6/32 (18.75%) for 9.9pts (+30.9%)
  • over 1m to 1m4f : 9/31 (29%) for 45.8pts (+147.7%)
  • running after a break of 30 days or more : 11/30 (36.7%) for 50.1pts (+167.1%)
  • in 3yo only races : 5/23 (21.7%) for 12.6pts (+54.7%)
  • those stepping up in class are 6/19 (31.6%) for 15.5pts (+81.6%)
  • LTO winners are 5/19 (26.3%) for 9.6pts (+50.4%)
  • handicap debutants are 6/17 (35.3%) for 16pts (+94.2%)
  • over a mile : 3/10 (30%) for 23.74pts (+237.4%)
  • and on soft ground : 2/9 (22.2%) for 15.6pts (+173.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Night Castle @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Betfair, BetVictor, Coral, Paddy Power & Skybet at 8.20pm on Friday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th September 2017

Tuesday's Result :

1.50 Redcar : Placebo Effect @ 9/2 non-BOG 3rd at 7/2 : Dwelt and slightly hampered start, held up and behind, headway under pressure over 1f out, slightly hampered and switched right inside final furlong, kept on but beaten by 1.5 lengths...

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.05 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

D'Bai @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

A 3yr old gelding with 3 wins and 3 places from his six runs to date, including of relevance here...

  • 3/4 after a break of less than 60 days
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 over a mile
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 2/2 as favourite
  • a win and a place from two runs in Listed company
  • 1/1 on good to soft
  • 1/1 in blinkers

Three year olds have won four of the last six runnings of this race and D'Bai is best in at the weights based on handicap marks.

Trainer Charlie Appleby is 13/41 (31.7% SR) over the last 30 days, not counting a 1 from 2 return at Newcastle on Tuesday evening after I'd already made the selection.

Here at Sandown, his strike rate is 18.5% (12 winners from 65), with non-handicap races providing 8 winners from 39 (20.5% SR) for profits of 7pts at an ROI of 17.9% and of these 39...

  • males are 8/31 (25.8%) for 15pts (+48.4%)
  • the last three seasons are 5/23 (21.7%) for 13pts (+56.4%)
  • and males over the last three seasons are 5/20 (25%) for 16pts (+80%)

Plus...since 2008, male Class 1 runners priced at 7/4 to 8/1 who have already won at this grade, but ran at Class 2 last time out in the past 60 days are 28/147 (19.1% SR) for 39.9pts (+27.2% ROI).

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on D'Bai @ 3/1 BOG, which was offered by Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor & Totesport at 6.10pm on Tuesday. For what it's worth, I'm on with Bet365, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th September 2017

Thursday's Result :

2.25 Doncaster : Nyaleti @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 4/1 : Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on, but beaten by 2 x head...

Friday's pick goes in the...

1.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Aqabah @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

Trainer Charlie Appleby is in fine form of late, clocking up 7 winners from 18 (38.9% SR) over the last fortnight, with another 5 of the losers making the frame for a place strike rate of 66.6%.

Jockey James Doyle is also in decent nick, with a 10 from 42 (23.8% SR) record during the same time and when the two have combined recently, they are 5 from 12 (41.7% SR).

More long-term than just the past two weeks, Charlie's runners here at Doncaster are 23/112 (20.5% SR) for 26.5pts (+23.7% ROI) profit and those numbers include...

  • males at 20/79 (25.3%) for 48.4pts (+61.3%)
  • over the last two seasons : 10/38 (26.3%) for 36.5pts (+96.1%)
  • males over the last two seasons are 9/32 (28.1%) for 40.2pts (+125.7%)
  • on soft ground : 3/16 (18.8%) for 10.8pts (+67.6%)
  • ridden by James Doyle : 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.7pts (+130.3%)
  • on soft ground over the last two seasons : 3/4 975%) for 22.8pts (+570%)
  • under James Doyle over the last two seasons : 2/2 (100%) for 6.8pts (+340%)

I wouldn't be too surprised if Aqabah shortens overnight and eventually goes off as favourite and that wouldn't entirely be a bad thing, for although it's a reckless policy to blindly back favourites, profit can be made from backing the right ones. This brings us back to jockey James Doyle, who is 51/110 (46.4% SR) for 22.5pts (+20.5% ROI) on favourites this year, including...

  • on 2yr olds : 20/38 (52.6%) for 5.37pts (+14.1%)
  • over the 7f trip : 18/31 (58.1%) for 12.4pts (+40%)
  • for Charlie Appleby : 11/23 (47.8%) for 4.44pts (+19.3%)
  • on soft ground : 6/8 (75%) for 5.4pts (+67.5%)
  • and here at Doncaster : 2/3 (66.6%) for 1.34pts (+44.6%)

...which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Aqabah @ 10/3 BOG, which was offered by Bet365 & BetVictor at 5.30pm on Thursday with plenty of acceptable 3/1 BOG offered elsewhere! For what it's worth, I'm on with Bet365, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2017

Wednesday's Result :

5.30 Catterick : Swansway @ 9/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 Close up, ridden 2f out, weakened final furlong.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.05 Newbury...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pilgrims Treasure @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

An unexposed three year old colt making only his fifth start having already landed one win and two places from his previous four runs. He was a decent second (only beaten by 0.75 lengths) behind a far more experienced rival last time out (4 weeks ago) and although the good to firm ground was probably far too quick for him, he still finished with clear daylight between himself and the chasing pack.

Having won on soft ground already, I'd suggest today's advised Good to Soft (might yet deteriorate) would be far more to his liking on a track where his stablemates have done well in the recent past, as...

...Trainer Charlie Appleby is 10/35 (28.6% SR) for 9.76pts (+27.9% ROI) here at Newbury over the last three seasons (including this one) and these runners include...

  • 3 yr olds @ 5/21 (23.8%) for 2.4pts (+11.3%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/16 (25%) for 1.3pts (+8%)
  • ridden by William Buick : 7/14 (50%) for 17.66pts (+126.2%)
  • over this 1m2f C&D : 3/8 (37.5%) for 0.92pts (+11.5%)
  • and those having their 2nd handicap run are 3/6 (50%) for 0.22pts (+3.68%)

The booking of William Buick is very pertinent in my opinion, as he has a 19.2% strike rate on this track since 2012 that has generated 50.8pts profit at an ROI of 26.3%, so it's fair to say he rides this course very well.

William is also in fine form, winning 17 of his 74 (23% SR) races over the past month, whilst Charlie Appleby's horses are 9/34 (26.5% SR) over the last fortnight and it's also worth noting that the pair work well together with 68 winners from 280 (24.3% SR) for 98.9pts (+35.3% ROI) profit since the start of 2016.

In addition to the excellent trainer/jockey stats above, one of my stored micro-systems tells me that since 2012, 3 yr olds who won two starts ago ahead of a runner-up finish LTO 21 to 60 days ago are 89/375 (23.7% SR) for 250.3pts (+66.8% ROI) profit when running over 5f to 1m2f on turf officially deemed as no faster than good to firm, nor any slower than good to soft.

In respect of today's contest, those 375 qualifiers contain the following profitable angles...

  • handicappers are 65/283 (23%) for 134.9pts (+47.7%)
  • males are 51/224 (22.8%) for 161.3pts (+72%)
  • at Class 4 : 26/91 (28.6%) for 50.6pts (+55.6%)
  • and those racing over the same C&D as LTO are 6/22 (27.3%) for 17.14pts (+77.9%)

...which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Pilgrims Treasure @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor & Totesport at 6.35pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.05 Newbury...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th June 2017

Wednesday's Result :

8.35 Ripon : Pumblechook @ 11/2 BOG 3rd at 6/5 Chased leaders, led over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra towards finish beaten by just over a length and a half.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.35 Sandown...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hold Sway3/1 BOG

Why?

Trainer Charlie Appleby is 15/48 (31.25% SR) for 23.15pts (+48.2% ROI) over the last 30 days and 5/17 (29.4%) for 11.9pts (+70%) in the last fortnight, whilst overall here at Sandown his runners are 10/58 (17.2%) for 5.94pts (+10.24%), of which...

  • males are 10/49 (20.4) for 14.9pts (+30.5%)
  • those priced at 7/1 and shorter are 9/39 (23.1%) for 3.58pts (+9.2%)
  • and at Class 3 : 4/16 (25%) for 5.3pts (+33.1%)

Jockey James Doyle is 7/33 (21.2% SR) over the last 30 days and 3/13 (23.1%) for 10.01pts (+77%) in the past week, whilst here at Sandown in Class 2 to 4 handicaps since the start of 2013, he has ridden 11 winners from 74 (14.9% SR) for 8.11pts (+11% ROI) profit.

Together, the Appleby/Doyle partnership is 10/49 (20.4% SR) for 3.18pts (+6.5% ROI) profit in handicaps since the start of the 2015 season, including...

  • males at 9/38 (23.7%) for 10.71pts (+28.2%)
  • those priced at 2/1 to 7/1 are 8/29 (27.6%) for 19.23pts (+66.3%)
  • 3 yr olds are 7/27 (25.9%) for 12.65pts (+46.9%)
  • over trips of 1m2f to 1m6f : 5/16 (31.25%) for 17.87pts (+111.7%)
  • at Class 3 : 2/8 (25%) for 8.39pts (+104.9%)
  • and here at Sandown : 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.39pts (+446.4%)

And the horse? Well, he's a 3 yr old colt who hasn't yet finished outside the frame (2321) in four starts. He won over this trip on similarly good to soft ground last time out wearing cheekpieces (worn again) in a 7-runner race (7 go here too).

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Hold Sway3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.35 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 20th August 2016

Friday's Result :

2.20 Sandown : Fabric @ 11/2 BOG non-runner (withdrawn at the start at 14.23 on Vet's advice, as the filly was found to have blood in the nostrils.)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

1.55 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Serengeti Sky at 11/4 BOG

Why?

A triple-pronged stat attack for you today regarding this two year old colt, who makes his third start and handicap debut after a decent staying-on third on debut over 6f at Newbury five weeks ago, before stepping up to this 7f trip to win at Epsom by three lengths eased down 12 days later.

1. He's trained by Charlie Appleby, who is having an excellent Flat season with 42 winners from 183 (23% SR) for 65.1pts (+35.6% ROI) profit so far, including...

  • 2 yr olds are 17/50 (34%) for 10.66pts (+21.32%)
  • LTO winners are 9/46 (19.6%) for 23.8pts (+51.7%)
  • at the 7f trip : 12/42 (28.6%) for 32.8pts (+78.2%)
  • in nurseries : 1/1 (100%) for 4.09pts (+409%)

2. And more long-term, Charlie's record here at Sandown reads : 9/50 (18% SR) for 11.22pts (+22.44% ROI), with the following of relevance / interest today...

  • males : 9/43 (20.9%) for 18.22pts (+42.4%)
  • at 7/1 and shorter : 8/33 (24.2%) for 6.86pts (+20.8%)
  • 11-45 dslr : 8/26 (30.8%) for 33.5pts (+128.7%)
  • on Good to Firm : 5/25 (20%) for 17.44pts (+69.8%)
  • LTO winners : 5/18 (27.8%) for 7.1pts (+39.5%)
  • 2 yr olds are 5/17 (29.4%) for 16.8pts (+98.9%)
  • over 7f : 4/12 (33.3%) for 19.2pts (+159.9%)
  • and those ridden by James Doyle are 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.39pts (+173.2%)

3. And Charlie's 2-4 yr old handicap debutants are 48/193 (24.9% SR) for 14.8pts (+7.67% ROI), with the following profitable angles at play today...

  • those priced at 8/1 and shorter : 48/170 (28.2%) for 37.8pts (+22.2%)
  • in fields of 5-10 runners : 36/131 (27.5%) for 20.7pts (+15.8%)
  • LTO winners : 33/108 (30.6%) for 21pts (+19.4%)
  • at Class 4 : 22/76 (29%) for 19.2pts (+25.3%)
  • in July/August : 19/58 (32.8%) for 33.48pts (+57.7%)
  • 21-45 dslr : 19/53 (35.8%) for 37.1pts (+70%)
  • under James Doyle : 4/11 (36.4%) for 16.4pts (+148.7%)
  • and here at Sandown : 2/7 (28.6%) for 5.31pts (+75.8%)

...pointing me to... a 1pt win bet on Serengeti Sky at 11/4 BOG, which was available in more than half a dozen places at 6.55pm (and still in 4 places 6 hours later) and to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Sandown.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...