Tag Archives: Catterick

Stat of the Day, 6th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 06/03/13

Stat of the Day: 06/03/13

Stat of the Day, 6th March 2013

No joy yesterday as Josh's Dreamaway failed to place. She was making some headway towards the end of the race, but it was already too late in my opinion, I think she needed to have been kept a little closer to make a charge. She eventually finished in 6th, which was no disgrace, but it was 3 lengths adrift of a payout for us.

We're off chasing in North Yorkshire today where we've a family affair in a 3m 1.5f, Class 4 Novices Handicap Chase on good ground (at last!). And we've eight runners lined up for the...

2.50 Catterick

Trainer Keith Reveley's record in chase events here at Catterick has been excellent over the last few years. In fact, since the start of 2010, he has managed to saddle up ten winners from thirty for a very impressive 78pts profit, a return of 260% on stakes invested.

Meanwhile, Keith's son, James has also been rattling up the winners over the Catterick chase course. James has ridden ten winners from thirty-six attempts over the same period. This strike rate of 27.8% has resulted in profits of 71pts at SP (+197.2%).

It goes without saying that many of the rides above are common to both trainer and rider, but their combined stats here are far better than they are generally. Since January 2010, they have a combined strike rate of 18.6%, which is very respectable, but in Catterick chases it becomes 39.1% (9/23). Their combined profits from all races in this period are 56pts, which gives a POI of 12%, whilst in today's type of race, they've made 80.4pts = 349.6% of stakes.

Today is the last NH meeting of the season at Catterick and the father/son combo will look to go out on a high with their only joint effort (and James' sole ride) of the day: D'Gigi

D'Gigi is a 7 yr old chestnut mare who probably isn't as straightforward as the Reveley clan would like, but has shown plenty of promise previously. She was placed here in a hurdle race last season, whilst in a run of decent form (finishes of 1st, 2nd and 3rd on the spin in increasingly more difficult races), before a fall at Aintree last May seemed to halt her progress.

It was expected that she would come on more for a switch to fences and she wasn't far short of  her winning hurdles form on just her second attempt at chasing when fifth at Doncaster over 3 miles on soft ground in November. She has had a couple of jumping issues, but I'd have expected the stable to have worked on that during her near-3 month break from the track and I'd also expect to see a better performance on this firmer surface.

This is a race that the Reveleys seem to target, having won it in both 2010 and 2011. And whilst Keith didn't have an entry last year, James went on to ride the runner-up Brokethegate who finished 1.5 lengths behind Salut Honore.

I'd expect the team to have D'Gigi as ready as she can be for this one and if the jumping remains sound, she has every chance. Thus, today's play is a 1pt win bet on D'Gigi at 7/2 BOG. This price is available pretty much everywhere, so for your favoured bookie simply...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 2.50 Catterick

Stat of the Day, 26th February 2013

Stat of the Day: 26/02/13

Stat of the Day: 26/02/13

Stat of the Day, 26th February 2013

Just enough wasn't enough yesterday, as M J Woodward failed to cling on to the lead he held around the home turn. He was eventually run out of the places too in a tight finish, as he went from 1st to 8th inside the final furlong.

Such was the competitiveness of the race, he was still less than 3 lengths off the winner at the post and less than 6 lengths covered the entire 11-runner field.

We're heading North to Yorkshire today for an interestingly open-looking Class 4 Handicap Hurdle. It's another 11-runner contest and the trip is 3 miles 1.5 furlongs on Good to Soft ground for the...

4.20 Catterick

It's a horses for courses SotD today, as we examine the merits of an 8 yr old bay mare who seems to be well suited (on paper at least!) by today's conditions.

Carmela Maria  has had a fairly modest NH career if we're totally honest: just 3 wins and 6 places from 29 races, where backing her blindly would have seen you break even at SP and make a small 1.65pts profit to E/W stakes. So we need something else to convince us to back her.

Today's race is a handicap event and all three previous wins have been on handicap company, where she has 3 wins and 4 places from 22 starts. Win and place strike rates of 13.6% and 31.8% have produced profits of 7pts (+31.8% POI) and 11.65pts (+26.5%) respectively, whilst all those wins and places have come in Class 4 contests like today's. At this level, her strike rates improve to 17.6% (for +12pts = +70.6% POI) and 41.2% (for 17.25pts = POI of 50.7%)

All three NH victories have come here at Catterick, where she is 3/8 for +21pts. All have been at today's trip where is she is 3/6 for +23pts over C&D.

All three wins have also come in fields of 10 to 13 runners and whilst wearing blinkers. The cut in the ground should be of too much an issue either, she has decent form in those conditions too.

So, today sees us considering a Catterick Class 4 Handicap race over the preferred trip of 3m 1.5f where our selection is in a field of 10-13 runners wearing blinkers. And whilst it look like I may have filtered this down a little too much, it does show that today represents her optimum conditions, as this will be the fifth time she has raced with all those parameters in place: winning three of the previous four.

I'm looking at a safety-first E/W bet today and the best price available (9.50am) is 7/1 BOG across the board.

It's unusual for all the firms to agree so early in the morning, so you shouldn't have any problems getting the same price as me. I've still some got a little bonus money left in my BetVictor account, so I'll be backing Carmela Maria with them, but to see what your favourite bookie is offering...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 4.20 Catterick

The full racecard for today's race is right here, too.

Stat of the Day, 1st February 2013

Stat of the Day: 01/02/13

Stat of the Day: 01/02/13

Stat of the Day, 1st February 2013

So, January has been and gone and despite an indifferent month, SotD returned with 6.33pts profit (22.6% POI). This could have been improved slightly with the benefit of hindsight, had we gone E/W on yesterday's selection. Flying Award drifted out from my 9/2 as far as 6/1 at one point before returning as a runner-up at 11/2.

I know many of you took the E/W option at 6/1, which was good news for you and had that been available at the time I want to press, I'd have done the same! Nevertheless, I was happy enough with the selection, I just felt that the jockey needed to have done a little bit more earlier on to pressurize the winner.

We're off to Yorkshire today, and just like yesterday we've testing ground (officially soft) and once again the trip is a sapping 3 miles 1.5 furlongs for a 12-runner, Class 3 Handicap Hurdle, shown on your racecards as the...

2.45 Catterick

I'm not often one to advise the blanket/blind backing of a trainer, but sometimes there's profitable angles in doing so. In recent times, Malcolm Jefferson has excelled in producing consistent returns from handicap races.

If we look at Mr. Jefferson's horses in NH handicap contests only: he has saddled 37 winners from 212 races since the start of 2011: this strike rate of 17.45% is profitable to the tune of 174pts at SP. That's a return of 82% on your money, which would be improved at either betfair SP or by taking early BOG odds.

In races of 5 runners of more: 79 successful E/W bets from 208 (38%) yielding 235pts profit at SP (56.5% return)

These figures are impressive enough to warrant attention, but as we all know, trainers are creatures of habit and tend to have their horses "ready" at certain specific times of the year and Malcolm seems to be no exception. During the two-year time frame mentioned above, 23 of those runners ran in the month of February, yielding five winners (21.7%) and a total of eleven placed finishes (47.8%). These results have meant profits of 33.5pts (145.7%) for the win backers, whilst a more cautious E/W approach has still netted 55pts (119.6%)

Mr Jefferson has two such runners today: Quite The Man would look to have a squeak of an E/W chance if the blinkers take effect in the 3.55 race (currently 12/1), but I think the stable's better chance lies with Sun Cloud.

Sun Cloud looked very much like an improving sort on the up when landing a 3m1f contest on soft ground at Wetherby back in November, but was admittedly disappointing next time out at Doncaster. He laboured home as a 5th placed 3/1 favourite that day, some 28 lengths off the winner. the general consensus was that the race had come too soon after his Wetherby exertions (just 14 days between the two) and he's had a good nine-week rest since then and is expected to fire again now fresh.

I'm happy to take another chance of him picking up where he left off at Wetherby and putting the Doncaster run down to being the wrong time for him and my play today is 0.5pts E/W on Sun Cloud at 10/1 BOG with Boylesports, but for the odds at your preferred bookmaker...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.45 Catterick

 

***It seems the price has changed whilst I was typing the post! Best price is now 8/1 (at 11.00 am), so we'll take 8/1 as our advised price.***

 

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Stat of the Day, 20th October 2012

Stat of the Day 20/10

Stat of the Day 20/10

Stat of the Day, 20th October 2012

In what now seems like Groundhog Day, I can tell you that yesterday's selection Chosen Character finished second, our sixth horse in the last week to make the frame. Unfortunately, we were on a 4/1 shot yesterday, so no E/W return to report this morning.

We're heading East over the Pennines today to check on an old battler tackling a mile and a half in a Class 6 Claimer. Our selection is due to face 10 rivals on soft/heavy ground in the...

4.00 Catterick

Trainer Geoffrey Harker has a decent enough record in non-handicap events at Catterick. He has a win strike rate of 26.2% and a place strike rate of 42.9% from 42 runners since April 2008. That's pretty good going to maintain that level of consistency over a sustained period of time. And in his yard, he has a horse who really loves Catterick and saves his best form for the course, but we'll come to him in a moment!

I don't want the outstanding performance of today's horse to detract from Mr Harker's record without him. Our selection aside: the trainer still boasts a 22.2% strike rate in these events, which is some achievement in itself.

It will now come as no surprise to SotD regulars that Geoffrey Harker only runs one horse today. This is, of course, our selection: Eijazz.

At the top of this piece, I mentioned an old battler and Eijazz certainly fits the profile! He's an 11 yr old veteran of some 92 races: winning 13 of them and making the frame a further 26 times. A win strike rate of 14.1% and a place strike of 42.4% wouldn't have made you rich backing him blindly. In fact the winning bets would have left you looking at a loss of 4.90pts at level stakes.

However, when it comes to Catterick, the story changes...
In all races: 8 wins from 33 (24.2%), 11.5pts profit (34.8% ROI), 22 placed finishes (66.67%) generating 31.2pts profit for E/W backers.
Non-handicaps: 7 from 16 (43.8%), 13.5pts profit (84.4% ROI), 15 placed finishes (93.8%) generating 27.9pts from E/W bets
Non-hcps over today's trip: 7 from 15 (46.7%), 14.5pts profit (96.7% ROI), 14 placed finishes (93.3%) generating 28.4pts from E/W bets

There'll be some cut in the ground today, of course, but that won't bother him, he has won here on soft ground and he won his only ever race on heavy ground (also here at Catterick).

In short, the trainer has a decent Catterick record without Eijazz, but Eijazz has won on the course 8 times: 7 of those over C&D, including this same race in 2010.

He has a little to find at the weights today and this is reflected in the price of 8/1 BOG (Bet365), so the play today is 0.5pts E/W on Eijazz at 8/1 BOG with bet365, but you really should take time to...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 4.00 Catterick.

Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2012

Stat of the Day 22/09

Stat of the Day 22/09

Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2012

It was one of those special days for SotD yesterday as our advised bet Emkanaat came home as a 7/1 winner, after we'd backed it E/W at 20/1. There was a 10p Rule 4 deduction from my bet, so my 1pt stake actually returned 11.8pts, so still better than 1pt win at SP!

Our day was rounded off nicely when I discovered Ingleby Angel (mentioned at 3/1) won at 15/8 and that Afraah (mentioned at 2/1) won at 7/4. I know some of you backed the three in a trixie and I know some of you did the doubles, so well done to you for sticking your necks out. I wish I could tell you about the 250/1 treble I had, but I didn't have it.  Wishful thinking and hindsight are wonderful things.

Yet for all that success, we have to go again today and it's not looking easy! There are no outstanding stats on offer today, the top trainers at the tracks today are all running 5 or 6 horses and there's no apparent plot/plan to them from our point of view, so it's my turn to hit Matt's randomiser button.

So, we're off to North Yorkshire for a tea time Class 6 Handicap over 7 furlongs. The going is set to be good to firm, as 14 runners contest a competitive-looking...

5.25 Catterick

Tracy Waggott's yard has had a bit of a lean time recently, but her string are showing signs of a return to form and she had a winner at Pontefract on Thursday to confirm this. She's actually got three runners at Catterick today: Miss Bossy Boots (33/1) seems to be making up the numbers in the 4.15 race and although Thrust Control looks to have a decent chance at 9/2 in the 5.55 race, our selection today is No Quarter.

No Quarter actually won this same race last year and as a result has to enter calculations. He is currently 2lb lower than when winning this event last year and his recent performances have been decent: he hasn't been out of the top four in any of his last six starts. He had a poor draw last year but still got up late to take the race, the draw seems to have been much kinder to him this time around and he's well weighted to strike again.

It's a difficult race to call, but our selection should hopefully just have the edge. The tightness of the race is reflected in the market with just one point separating the first three in the betting. No Quarter is actually the outsider of those three and we might grab ourselves some value with a 1pt win bet at the 5/1 BOG generally available, but you can always...

Click here for the latest odds for the 5.25 Catterick.

Stat of the Day, 7th August 2012

Stat of the Day 07/08

Stat of the Day 07/08

Stat of the Day, 7th August 2012

No excuses offered for yesterday's performance: I fully expected Rockweiller to at least grab a place, but he was disappointing, if the truth be told. I took 11/2 about him in the morning and he went off at 9/2. There didn't seem to be any lack of effort, but when the leaders pressed the button, he had nothing extra to give. Just looking at the fact he finished 4th doesn't tell the whole story, he was actually more than 13 lengths behind the winner.

So, today we're back on grass and heading up to North Yorkshire, where our selected jockey has developed a bit of a liking for this particular course. The race in question is a Class 5 Handicap over a trip just 8 yards shy of 6 furlongs. The ground is good to firm (firm in places) and eleven runners are due to be loaded up for the...

3.20 Catterick

Our jockey in question today is Silvestre de Souza and his record at Catterick is excellent. 50 winners from 245 rides represents a strike rate in excess of 20% and these winners have generated level stakes profits of almost 138pts at SP. That's a very healthy profit of over 56% on any stakes wagered. This career 20% strike rate has actually been at 21.3% for the last couple of years, so we're not relying on old data here to support our stats.

As it happens, Silvestre has a busy day ahead of him, the last race of the 7-race card is the only race he isn't scheduled to contest. You can make a good case for all his rides today, but the one I like the best is Ferdy in the 3.20. This horse is still unexposed in these sprint handicaps and won well here last time out (2 weeks ago) over course and distance, beating Ruth Carr's Chosen One quite comfortably in the end. Chosen One reappeared 4 days later and came home a winner!

High draws tend to fare best here over 6 furlongs and Ferdy is drawn 11 of 11 today, he was 11 of 12 last time out, so that should also count in his favour. The main challenge today is likely to come from Oakbrook, who won the second division of Ferdy's successful outing here, but that race didn't look as strong as the first division and our mount looked far more impressive.

The best price for Ferdy at the moment is 4/1 BOG with a variety of firms: you take your pick! But if you choose to leave it later, be sure to come back and...

Click here for the latest odds for the 3.20 Catterick.

PS If we look at Mr de Souza's record on horses priced 6/1 or under, we can then see his strike rate increase to an impressive 30%!