Tag Archives: Cartmel racecourse

Stat of the Day, 26th August 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.50 Cartmel : River Icon @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Chased leaders, took keen hold, ridden and stayed on same pace)

Bank Holiday Monday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Cartmel :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Justatenner @ 5/1 or 9/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Good to Soft ground worth £15,640 to the winner...

Why?...

This 8 yr old gelding was a course and distance winner here LTO, five weeks ago, when partnered by today's jockey, Harry Reed, winning relatively comfortably despite Harry losing his whip on the run in. After that result and with today's race in mind, this horse's record in handicap hurdle contests now includes...

  • 4 wins, 6 places from 15 in a hood
  • 4 wins, 5 places from 14 with Harry in the saddle
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 10 from June to September
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 8 at 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 6 here at Cartmel
  • 1 from 1 over course and distance

His trainer, Tristan Davidson, isn't possibly the most well known, but he is interestingly/surprisingly profitable to follow blindly at odds shorter than 8/1 with 27 winners from 100 (27% SR) for 24.65pts (+24.65% ROI), whilst if you'd backed every single one of his hurdlers since the start of last year, you'd have had 13 winners from 44 (29.6% SR) and made yourself 43.1pts profit at an ROI of 98%, including...

  • 12/38 (31.6%) for 46.25pts (+121.7%) with Harry Reed in the saddle
  • 11/36 (30.6%) for 38.7pts (+107.5%) from male runners
  • 11/27 (40.7%) for 37.1pts (+137.3%) at odds of 7/4 to 9/1
  • 11/21 (52.4%) for 55pts (+261.9%) from March to September
  • 8/18 (44.4%) for 49.5pts (+274.7%) after 26-75 days since their last run
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 33.6pts (+480.3%) here at Cartmel
  • and 2 from 2 (100%) for 10.43pts (+521.5%) over this trip...

...whilst Harry Reed + males at 7/4 to 9/1 from March to September = 8 wins and 3 places from 12 with the 66.6% win strike rate generating 28.56pts profit at an ROI of some 238%!

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Justatenner @ 5/1 or 9/2 BOG as was available from Bet365 & BetVictor respectively at 6.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Cartmel

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th August 2019

Friday's pick was...

2.50 Ffos Las : Royal Residence @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Chased leaders, effort over 1f out, led inside final furlong, headed towards finish)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Cartmel :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

River Icon @ 9/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6f on Good to Soft/Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare comes here off the back of a win at Perth last time out, 24 days ago and is a former course and distance winner, having won this very race back in 2017.

Her trainer Iain Jardine is 4 from 15 over the last fortnight, which is useful and since the start of 2017 in UK handicap hurdle contests, his runners sent off at 6/4 to 10/1 after winning another hcp hurdle LTO are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 21.4pts (+237.9% ROI), including...

  • 3/5 (60%) for 9.865pts (+197%) at Class 4
  • 3/4 (75%) for 20.3pts (+507.5%) from females
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.82pts (+127.3%) from 7 yr olds

Moreover, Iain's handicap hurdlers priced at 7/4 to 12/1 on Good to Soft/Soft ground are 13/66 (19.7% SR) for 27.1pts (+41.1% ROI) since 2015, from which the following are relevant today...

  • 12/55 (21.8%) for 34.64pts (+63%) from 4-7 yr olds
  • 12/54 (22.2%) for 26.26pts (+48.6%) at 25-140 miles from home
  • 11/40 (27.5%) for 46.55pts (+116.4%) at 11-60 dslr
  • 8/39 (20.5%) for 11.66pts (+29.9%) at Class 4
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 42.37pts (+141.2%) at 2m1f to 2m6f
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 18.05pts (+62.3%) in fields of 4-8 runners
  • 7/27 (25.9%) for 28.67pts (+106.2%) from females
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 31.46pts (+174.8%) after a top 2 finish LTO
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 27.5pts (+183.3%) in female only races
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 3.95pts (+65.8%) from previous C&D winners..

...whilst 4-7 yr olds racing on tracks 25-140 miles from home, 11-60 days after their last run are 10/33 (30.3% SR) for 40.82pts at an ROI of 123.7%...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on River Icon @ 9/2 BOG as was available from Bet365 & Coral at 5.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Cartmel

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th August 2017

Saturday's Result :

5.10 Cartmel : Beeno @ 7/2 BOG - WON at 2/1 Took keen hold, tracked leader, led after 2 out, clear from last, easily won by seven lengths...

Thanks again to Matt for stepping in at late notice on Friday evening and now after completing my father of the bride duties yesterday, I'm back with...

Bank Holiday Monday's pick which goes in the...

4.05 Cartmel :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Morning Royalty @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

He might well be 10 yes old now, but over the last two years, he has been as consistent as ever before in his career, making the frame 14 times from his last 18 runs over both hurdles and fences, picking up 5 wins in the process. His last three contests have seen him finish 112 and today's conditions should suit him, as he's...

  • 5/23 under jockey Brian Hughes
  • 5/17 after a break of 1 to 2 months
  • 3/7 here at Cartmel
  • 2/2 over today's trip
  • 2/2 over course and distance

His handler, James Moffat, is based just three quarters of a mile away from this track and unsurprisingly has a good record here, landing 24 winners from 169 (14.2% SR) for 115.3pts (+68.2% ROI) profits since 2012, of which...

  • chasers are 7/46 (15.2%) for 26.2pts (+56.9%)
  • those racing over trips of 2m6.5f to 3m2f are 6/33 (18.2%) for 25.9pts (+8.5%)
  • and those rested for 46-60 days are 5/17 (29.4%) for 14.8pts (+86.8%)

And more generally over the last couple of years, James' longer distance runners (ie that same 2m6.5f to 3m2f spread as above) are 8 from 41  (19.5% SR) for 54.4pts at an ROI of 132.8% and these 41 runners include...

  • handicappers @ 7/38 (18.4%) for 52pts (+136.9%)
  • and chasers (all handicappers) are 4/9 (44.4%) for 61.2pts (+680.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Morning Royalty @ 7/2 BOG which was available with Bet365, Ladbrokes, Sunbets and Victor at 8.55pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Cartmel

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th August 2016

Friday's Result :

2.55 Thirsk : Ginger Jack @ 7/2 BOG (2.45/1 after R4) 2nd at 15/8 (In rear, headway over 2f out, ridden and edged left and every chance inside final furlong, kept on and held near finish, beaten by a neck)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

5.45 Cartmel :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Noble Call at 11/2 BOG

Why?

Joanne Foster's 8 yr old gelding had a poor record for a number of handlers over in Ireland, but impressed when winning by 5 lengths on his yard debut on similarly good to soft ground at Bangor 8 days ago and his team are looking to strike again whilst the iron is hot.

Joanne doesn't have the biggest / most famous / prolific etc etc string of horses at her disposal, but she's good at what she know best, low grade handicap hurdles and I don't mean that disrespectfully : these are the bread and butter races in my opinion.

Since 2010, her record in handicap hurdles stands at 10 winners from 90 (11.1% SR) for 161.7pts (+179.7% ROI), a decent enough starting point for discovering where her strengths lie and this race tells us that her runners are...

  • 10/83 (12.1%) for 168.7pts (+203.3%) from her males
  • 9/69 (13%) for 155pts within 8 weeks of their last run
  • 10/60 (16.7%) for 191.7pts (+319.5%) at trips of 2m to 2m 5.5f
  • 9/58 (15.5%) for 186pts (+320.7%) from her 6 to 8 yr olds
  • 5/46 (10.9%) for 141.1pts (+306.7%) at Class 5
  • 6/39 (15.4%) for 11.74pts (+30.1%) from those priced at 7/2 to 12/1

all very creditable, but start putting those together in combos and the magic really starts to unfold...

...as 6-8 yo males running over 2m to 2m 5.5f within 8 weeks of their last run are 8 from 32 (25% SR) for 184.3pts (+575.8% ROI), from which those priced at 5/2 to 16/1 are 7/18 (38.9%) for 46.2pts (+256.8%) and Class 5 runners are 5 from 15 (33.3%) for 172.1pts (+1147.3%).

AND...Joanne Foster's 6-8 yo male Class 5 handicap hurdlers priced at 5/2 to 16/1 running over 2m to 2m 5.5f within 8 weeks of their last run are 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 26.05pts (+289.4% ROI).

Not bad, eh? But wait, there's more (as a famous Irish "comedian" used to say), because since 2012, male handicap hurdlers who won a handicap hurdle last time out by 4 lengths or more in the last 60 days, went on to "double up" on no less than 312 of 1227 (25.4% SR) occasions for level stakes profits of some 209.5pts (+17.1% ROI).

And of those 1227 runners...

  • 5 to 10 yr olds are 299/1151 (26%) for 213pts (+18.5%)
  • 4-25 dslr = 252/878 (28.7%) for 190.7pts (+21.7%)
  • at Class 5  : 65/173 (37.6%) for 72.1pts (+41.7%)

AND...5-10 yr olds in Class 5 races, 4-25 days since their last run are 57/138 (41.3% SR) for 73pts (+52.9% ROI)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Noble Call at 11/2 BOG, from any of Bet365, BetVictor and/or SkyBet all quoting that price at midnight (I've been out!), but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Cartmel.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

SotD : Monday 25/05/15

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th May 2015

Copper Birch lost 2nd place 3 from home on Saturday and went backwards from there.

He eventually finished 5th, beaten by 13 lengths at 4/1, considerably shorter than our advised odds of 7/1. But moral victories don't pay the bills, so it would be nice to start the week with the winner of Monday's...

4.10 Cartmel:

Where a recent history of 7 wins and 3 places from 11 handicap chases over the past 13 months makes Presenting Junior a fairly obvious member of my daily SotD shortlist, but there are other reasons behind his selection for Bank Holiday Monday.

  • Since 2009, when using a 3lb claimer jockey in an NH handicap on a horse priced in ther 15/8 to 8/1 bracket, trainer Martin Todhunter's record is 8 wins from 38 (21.1% SR) for profits of 17.1pts at an ROI of 44.9%
  • Since 2010 in Class 3 to 5 handicap chases, 3lb claimer jockeys have won 68 times from 382 occasions (17.8% SR) that they've ridden the top weighted horses in the race. This has produced 71pts (+18.6% ROI) profit, whilst in Class 3 races, those numbers are 15/78 (19.2% SR) for 31.3pts (+40.1% ROI).
  • Former C&D winners returning to Cartmel on the back of a win anywhere last time out are 7/20 (35% SR) for 12.85pts (+64.2% ROI) when sent off at odds of 7/4 to 6/1 on that Cartmel reappearance.

And as for the horse himself, his career record of 9 wins from 25 (36% SR) for 44.1pts (+176.4% ROI) is good enough, but in handicap chases, he's actually 9/17 (52.9% SR) for 52.1pts (+289.4% ROI) profit.

And with today's race in mind, it's worth knowing that in handicap chases...

...he has 1 win and 1 place from three starts here at Cartmel and is 1/1 over course and distance
...he has won 3 of 7 outings on good to soft ground (1211 in his last 4 runs on G to S)
...he is 4 from 4 at 2m 4.5f to 2m 5.5f
...he is 1 from 2 with today's jockey and lastly, but not least (ly?)...
...he is 3 from 5 at Class 3 level and the only time he has stepped up from this grade was when he won a Listed contest at Ayr last time out, so this represents a significant drop back in class.

I was quite surprised to see 7/2 BOG being offered about Presenting Junior here, so I took some of that from SkyBet, whilst Paddy Power offer the same. It's a case of 3/1 BOG at present with Bet365 and Betfair, so there's plenty to aim at by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 4.10 Cartmel

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 21st July 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2014

Saturday's contest in the gloom and rain at Ripon provided a great end to a fantastic week for us all here at SotD. Robert Winston gave a near perfect ride to enable Border Bandit to win for the 4th time on 6 starts this year. Our 11/4 shot attracted plenty of money before returning home victorious as a 6/4 favourite.

He was patiently ridden and then asked for an effort inside the final furlong, which saw him sweep into the lead and he still had enough in reserve to repel a resurgent Shouranour (who was 9lbs better off) late on, eventually getting home by half a length.

Picture postcard time today, as we head off to Cumbria for the...

4.45 Cartmel: 

And a set of stats revolving around a female trainer, a female jockey and a male horse with Pink in his name who hasn't won any of his last 13 starts across three codes of racing. It might not sound so promising at first, so let me tell you more...

The lady trainer in question...

...is none other than SotD stalwart Dianne Sayer, who I like to keep an eye on in NH handicap contests, purely because it's profitable to do so, even if strike rates aren't always the best, but I talked a little about that last Wednesday in my review roundup.

Since 2009, her horses have won 92 of 838 races and whilst an 11% strike rate is a touch lower than normal SotD stats, it's actually very healthy from such a large sample size and is also an excellent starting point to work from. 80.3pts is the profit from those runners, a respectable ROI of 9.6%.

And it is the handicappers that are most successful, with a record of 89 from 704 (12.6% SR) for 19.7pts (+27.1% ROI) : a far more palatable set of figures indeed. Those figures obviously include all her handicappers from short priced favourites to longshot no-hopers, neither of which interest us here at SotD, so we can just apply some simple price bands and come up with the following:

2/1 to 20/1 : 80 winners from 552 races at a strike rate of 14.5% for 154pts (+27.9% ROI) profit and
2/1 to 6/1 : 50/203 (24.6% SR) for 61.3pts (+30.2% ROI). Since 2012, this lower price bracket has given up 32 winners from 125 (25.6% SR) for an excellent return of 51.3pts, or 41% of all stakes.

Dianne's success is repeated here at Cartmel...

In the same 2009-14 time period we started with above, she has saddled up 14 winners from just 67 runners at a rate of 20.9% with the 26.7pts level stakes profits equating to a 39.9% return on investment. As with her general figures, she has done better in handicap competition with a 12/56 (21.4% SR) record generating 16.7pts (+29.8% ROI) profit and we can, once again, filter those results by price as follows...

2/1 to 10/1 : 12/45 (26.7% SR) for 27.7pts (+61.6% ROI) and
2/1 to 7/1 : 11/33 (33.33% SR) for 26.8pts (+81.3% ROI) which has since 2012 become 6/20(30% SR) for 18pts (+90% ROI) profit.

So, who is the jockey?

Today's jockey is Lucy Alexander, who has ridden well in the past here at Cartmel with an 8/45 record over the last couple of years. This 17.8% strike is more than respectable, whilst the profits from her winners is astronomical at 131.9pts or 293% of stakes invested.

Lucy had only ridden for Dianne Sayer on 21 previous occasions, but her 5 winners equates to 23.8% of those rides and the 15.5pts profit gives an ROI of 73.6%. The combination has two winners from three here at Cartmel for a tidy 9.26pts profit.

The Alexander/Sayer combination is also very effective when them money down with a 4/11 (36.4% SR) record with horses priced 2/1 to 6/1 producing 10.8pts (+98.1% ROI) profit to date.

Dianne has five runners here today, whilst Lucy is booked for two rides, but they only come together with one horse.

And that horse...

...is Sergeant Pink, who currently trades at around the 4/1 BOG mark. He's a horse of undoubted ability, having won 8 of his previous 38 NH races (6/30 over fences), but hasn't won a race of any description in his last thirteen attempts (7 chases, 2 A/W outings and four on the flat). He does, however, have a record of 112 here at Cartmel, all over today';s course and distance, including victory in this very event last year under today's jockey Lucy Alexander, who has ridden him to victory three times in seven starts to date.

He had an excellent summer last year, winning five times in nine efforts, but has struggled at the weights since then. He looked like he was coming back to his best last time out over fences, when beaten late on over today's course and distance back in May. He has since finished third on the flat over 1m4f to keep him sharp and now that he has dropped down to a mark of 118, looks dangerous here today.

He's now rated 3lbs lower than when winning at Uttoxeter last September and when Dianne Sayer's horses have dropped to below their last winning mark and haven't won for at least 10 races, they tend to pick up form again. When horses fitting that criteria have been sent off in the 9/4 to 11/1 odds range over the last four seasons, 6 of 35 (17.1% SR) have been winners with the 17.7pts profit equating to 50.7% of stakes invested. Interestingly, the record of these horses here at Cartmel is 2/6 for 11.8pts profit!

Lots to go at there and plenty of compelling reasons as to why Sergeant Pink should haul himself off the cold list today. Due to his apparent lack of form, we're getting a decent price about him and I'm placing my 1pt win bet on Sergeant Pink with Hills, who are offering 4/1 BOG. That same price is currently available with Paddy Power, but for all the other firms' prices, you should...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.45 Cartmel

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2014

Parlour Games won a shade cosily at Huntingdon on Tuesday evening and the only blot on the landscape was a 35% reduction in our advised 11/4 BOG odds, which took us down to around the 9/5 mark.

In fairness, his caused was probably helped on paper by the three withdrawals, but the way he put the race to bed was very impressive. AP was motionless and no drive needed and I was very surprised to see our runner returned at 15/8, a figure equivalent to just over our original 11/4, but for the deductions.

Two from two this week and the hat-trick is a possibility, despite me picking a much trickier looking contest up in Cumbria, where I'm hopeful of some tropical fire in the...

5.00 Cartmel

Dianne Sayer is another of those trainers I just love to back blindly. In NH handicap races over the last four years, you could have made a tidy profit from backing all her runners priced between 13/8 and 20/1.

You'd have placed 416 bets, found 67 (16.1% SR) winners and made yourself a tidy 173.3pts (+41.7% ROI) profit in the process. Her hurdlers contributed 45 winners from 258 runners (17.4% SR) for 126.8pts (49.1% ROI) profit.

If we impose a 12/1 odds cap, our original 416 runners become 323, of which 59 (18.3% SR) were victorious, resulting in level stakes profits of 100.8pts, or 31.2% of all stakes. The hurdlers shone yet again with a record reading 41/192 (21.4% SR) for 106.2pts (+55.3% ROI).

And if finally drill down to an upper limit of 6/1, we see Dianne saddle up 40 winners from 150 (26.7% SR) for excellent profits of 67.25pts (+44.8% ROI), with the hurdlers stealing the show once more with their 27/82 (32.9% SR) record generating 62.9pts (+76.7% ROI) profit.

Thise are Mrs Sayers' general stats, but we can also see that Cartmel has been particularly good to her over the years, as she has saddled up 13 winners from the 48 runners she has seen sent off at below 12/1 at this beautiful location. The 39pts profit from that 27.1% strike rate equates to a massive 81.2% of stakes invested.

And from those 48 runners, the record over hurdles is 8 winners from 30 (26.7% SR) for 23.4pts (+78% ROI) profit with her hurdlers priced at 6/1 or shorter contributing six winners from fourteen (42.9% SR) for 17.14pts (+122.4% ROI) to date.

All of which leads us to the Wednesday card at Cartmel, where Dianne has two entrants. Sendiym has a decent chance of at least a place at 6/1 BOG in the 3.20 race, a 17.5f chase, but it's the hurdler we're concentrating on today.

Mrs Sayer has just the one hurdler out here, in the shape of Tropenfeuer, who was an easy winner last time out. She coasted home by a good 16 lengths at Sedgefield a fortnight ago and that was not only her debut for the yard after an 11-race career without a victory, but it came some 320 days after her last outing and 349 days after her last effort over hurdles.

She is, almost inevitably, hit quite hard in the weights, rising 13lbs for that last run, but I'm not convinced that the handicapper has her just yet. Such was the ease of her last win and we can be justified in expecting some improvement for having had that run, it's difficult to assess what rating she should be given.

If she runs and jumps like she did last time out, then we're in for a decent performance at a reasonable price. We're obviously not getting the 12/1 she was sent off at last time, but doubts about the weight are probably contributing to her current 5/1 BOG price tag.

At those kind of odds in a fairly competitive looking 14-runner contest, it's very tempting to hang fire to see if she drifts in the market, and then stick a cheeky E/W bet on her. However, as we said the other day, fortune favours the brave, so it's a 1pt win bet for me on Tropenfeuer at 5/1 BOG with BetVictor. She's already a little shorter with the other firms already active in this market, as can be seen if you just...

...click here for the latest betting on the 5.00 Cartmel

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2012

Stat of the Day 23/7

Stat of the Day 23/7

Stat of the Day: 23rd July 2012

We could only record a 4th place finish from yesterday's old warrior Lidjo de Rouge, who was sent off at 4/1. He seemed to look disinterested in the midsection of the race before rallying again and staying on towards the end, but by then, the race was lost and even our place backers didn't see a return. Sunday and Monday racing have proved to be generally poor fayre of late and today looks to be following that same path!

But...every race must a winner and hopefully we can steer you towards one today as SotD clocks up the miles by heading back to Cumbria to look at a Northern specialist in a Class 5 Handicap Chase over 2m 1.5f. The going is set to be Good (but softer in places) and we're expecting to see 9 runners compete in the...

3.55 Cartmel

Trainer Harriet Graham doesn't have the largest yard in the North, with just 35 runners this year. She does, however have a decent record at Cartmel with a career win strike rate of 27% (7/26). This record is further improved to 6/11 in the last two years at the course, mainly due to the form displayed by today's selection, who had helped Mrs Graham towards a record of 5/12 in Cartmel chases (4/6 in the last 2 yrs!)

Our selection today is another old warrior: Soul Magic, whose record in Cartmel chases reads: 61111 and his record in chases over course & distance reads 1111. He notched up 4 consecutive C&D victories last "summer" and will hope to extend that run on his reappearance today. He wasn't on the top of his game at Hexham last time out, coming back from a two-month break, but he is expected to come on for that outing.

He is reunited with Gary Rutherford today, who was on board for 3 of the 4 C&D wins and also takes a useful 5lbs off today, which should help. it's not the best looking contest in the world, but as I said earlier, it needs a winner (and so do we!) and at 4/1 BOG generally, Soul Magic looks a decent proposition.

I'm taking the 4/1 BOG, but you can always pop back later to...

Click here for the latest odds for the 3.55 Cartmel.

Stat of the Day, 21st July 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 21st July 2012

Yet another abandoned meeting yesterday meant my 33/1 poke was never to be, and we're back to familiar hunting grounds today, and old friends, in the…

3.35 Cartmel

It's Cartmel, so the first man I look to is SotD's old mate, Richard Ford. A local chap, and a course specialist, Ford has figures in recent years of seven winners from 28 runners (25% strike rate).

His chase figures are even more eye-catching, with five of those winners coming over the larger impediments, from just a dozen starters, and yielding 25.5 point profit.

Today's sole runner is Colditz, a course specialist, at least since Ford acquired him. In those two years, Colditz has run nine times, four of them here. His record elsewhere is 45212, and his record at Cartmel is 1331.

That last 1 was over course and distance, and on soft ground, in this class.

He has gone up a fair whack in the handicap for those consistent performances, but is still racing off a lowly mark of 88, bad enough to ensure he remains in Class 5 company. It's my view that the class of opposition is always more important than the weight carried, so the 11-06 here ought not to be a worry.

Actually, when Tony McCoy rode him to victory on Colditz' last start here, he lugged eleven stone, and today's burden is reduced to 11-01 by Harry Challoner's five pound allowance.

It's a competitive race for the grade, but with conditions all in our favour, 4/1 BOG looks fair enough.

Click here for the latest odds for the 3.35 Cartmel.