Tag Archives: Carlisle Racecourse

Stat of the Day, 11th September 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.00 Catterick : B Fifty Two @ 4/1 3rd at 11/2 (Tracked leaders, effort well over 1f out, kept on same pace)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Redarna @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good/Good to Soft ground worth £9,704 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding has won six of his last ten outings and comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins over 7f at Ascot in July and then over this very course and distance last month.

Those last two runs/wins have moved his record in Flat handicaps on to a very impressive 8/21 (38.1% SR) for 62.1pts (+295.8% ROI) profit, with the following conditions of relevance today...

  • 8/17 after 1-6 weeks rest
  • 7/14 in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 6/14 at odds shorter than 7/1
  • 6/13 on Good/Good to Soft
  • 5/10 over trips of 7.5/8 furlongs
  • 4/8 in 2019
  • 4/6 wearing cheekpieces
  • 3/12 here at Carlisle
  • 3/9 going right handed
  • 3/6 under jockey James Sullivan
  • 2/5 over course and distance
  • and 1/1 at Class 3 (two starts ago)

...and at sub-7/1 odds in 8-14 runner races on Good/Good to Soft after 1-6 weeks rest, he is 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 25.9pts (+323.9% ROI)...

He is trained by Dianne Sayer, who seems to be on a good run here at Carlisle of late, especially with her handicappers racing over 7-9 furlongs at odds of 7/1 and shorter, as these beasts are 5/7 (71.4% SR) for 20.76pts (+296.6% ROI) this year alone including 3/4 (75%) for 12.02pts (+300.5%) from LTO winners.

That LTO winners stat isn't too surprising, though, when you consider that since 2014 at odds of Evens to 7/1, Dianne's handicappers who won LTO are 20 from 65 (30.8% SR) for 15.1pts (+23.2% ROI) profit, from which there are a myriad of profitable/relevant angles at play today : here's just a baker's dozen of them!

  • 17/47 (36.2%) for 24.1pts (+51.3%) from male runners
  • 16/42 (38.1%) for 26.8pts (+63.9%) on Good/Good to Soft ground
  • 15/42 (35.7%) for 15.9pts (+37.9%) from 5-8 yr olds
  • 9/20 (45%) for 15.16pts (+75.8%) during August to October
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 9.4pts (+40.9%) since the start of 2018
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 6.72pts (+39.5%) with 1 previous C&D win
  • 7/16 (43.8%) for 6.2pts (+38.8%) won over C&D LTO
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 4.02pts (+33.5%) at Class 3
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 9.34pts (+66.8%) on the Flat
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 12.64pts (+180.6%) over 7.5 to 9 furlongs
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 9.92pts (+110.2%) here at Carlisle
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 6.73pts (+56%) this year
  • and 3 from 6 (50%) for 5.43pts (+90.4%) in September

To form a composite from the above would dilute the dataset too much, but you could consider just backing 5-8 yr old males on Good/Good to Soft ground, as they are 12/20 (60% SR) for 28.9pts (+144.5% ROI), including 3 wins from 4 (75%) for 6.86pts (+171.4%) from those who won over course and distance last time out...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Redarna @ 3/1 BOG as was available from SkyBet along with Betfair/Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th August 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

5.25 Catterick : Redrosezorro @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Attempted to make all, decent lead eroded inside final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kermouster @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m1f on Good ground worth £4,205 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly has 3 wins and a place from her 6 starts in Flat handicaps and comes here on a hat-trick after back-to-back staying-on wins over a mile at Leicester, the latest coming 18 days ago.

Today's jockey Sam James has been in the saddle for all six starts with 3 wins and a place from 4 on undulating tracks and 2 wins plus a place from 3 runs going right handed like today.

Trainer Grant Tuer is in decent form too with 5/19 over the last 30 days, 2/7 in the past fortnight and 1 from 4 this week, mostly ridden by Sam James, whilst blindly backing all Grant's Class 4-6 handicappers at 16/1 and shorter has proved profitable in recent years with 22 winners from 147 (15% SR) since the start of 2016 generating profits of 51.5pts at an ROI of 35%, including of relevance here...

  • 21/126 (16.7%) for 53.5pts (+42.5%) at 6-60 dslr
  • 21/110 (19.1%) for 84.3pts (+76.6%) from March to August
  • 10/38 (26.3%) for 31.8pts (+83.7%) with Sam James in the saddle
  • 9/54 (16.7%) for 24.6pts (+45.5%) with female runners
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 51.2pts (+182.8%) over trips of 9-12 furlongs
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 36.7pts (+135.8%) from 3 yr olds
  • 7/14 (50%) for 45.4pts (+324.6%) in 3 yo races
  • and 5/21 (23.8%) for 3.9pts (+18.5%) from LTO winners...

...whilst Sam James + March-August on runners rested for 6-60 days = 10/27 (37% SR) for 42.8pts (+158.6% ROI), including 6/10 (60%) with females, 5/10 (50%) with 3 yr olds, 5/8 (62.5%) in 3 yo only races and 3/6 (50%) with LTO winners...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kermouster @ 3/1 BOG as offered by SkyBet & Hills at 5.35pm on Wednesday with plenty of 11/4 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th August 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.50 Thirsk : Roundhay Park @ 10/3 BOG  4th at 11/4 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace, never on terms)

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.45 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Redarna @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good ground worth £8,086 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5yr old gelding has three wins and a place from his last five outings, including winning a Class 3 contest at Ascot under today's jockey LTO, just nine days ago. He has 7 wins and 3 places from 20 stats in Flat handicaps and these include of relevance today...

  • 7 wins, 3 places from 15 over 7 to 8 furlongs
  • 7 wins, 3 places from 10 after a break of 8 to 28 days
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 14 at odds shorter than 7/1
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 9 on Good to Soft
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 5 in cheekpieces
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 11 here at Carlisle
  • and 1 win plus a place from the 2 rides under today's jockey, Emma Sayer....

...from which, Redarna is 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 24.3pts (+270% ROI) over 7 to 8 furlongs at odds shorter than 7/1 after a break of 8-28 days.

His trainer Dianne Sayer has clocked up 11 winners from 50 (22% SR) for 3.84pts (+7,68% ROI) when sending runners out in handicap company within a fortnight of a top 3 finish LTO and with today's contest in mind, those 50 runners include...

  • 11/31 (35.5%) for 22.8pts (+73.7%) at odds of 5/4 to 7/1
  • 7/28 (25%) for 5.1pts (+18.2%) after less than 10 days rest
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 19.1pts (+83.1%) at Class 4
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 13.94pts (+154.9%) from 5 yr olds
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 11.18pts (+159.7%) over trips of 7.5 to 9 furlongs
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 4.38pts (+33.7%) under jockey Emma Sayer
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 8.45pts (+105.7%) on Good to Soft ground...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Redarna @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 6.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th May 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

2.00 Newton Abbot : Kingston Mimosa @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Mid-division, dropped towards rear 7th, ridden to chase clear leaders after 5 out, stayed on to take modest 3rd after last, no chance with front pair)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

8.20 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hats Off To Larry @ 9/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3f on Good to Soft ground worth £7698 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding has won four of seven starts on the Flat over the past twelve months and defied a 6-month layoff when winning at Chester five days ago over 1m2.5f. He's up 5lbs for that win, but with 7lb claimer Scott MCullagh now in the saddle, he's effectively 2lbs better off and Scott did ride him to victory at Windsor last August on the only previous occasion they've teamed up.

Trainer Mick Channon doesn't send many runners up to Carlisle (perhaps the near 600-mile trip is a factor?), but those that have come here and have been deemed by the market to at least have a chance have fared pretty well.

Since 2008, Mick's visitors to Carlisle that have been sent off at 8/1 or shorter have won 15 of 53 (28.3% SR) for 24.8pts (+46.7% ROI) and so that I'm not leaning on old data to prop up my pick, the last four seasons show 7 winners from 21 (33.3% SR) for 11.35pts (+54% ROI), from which the following are relevant today...

  • at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 : 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.21pts (+83.6%)
  • for prizes in excess of £4,000 : 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.62pts (+114.7%)
  • males are 4/12 (33.3%) for 9.14pts (+76.2%)
  • those aged 5 and over : 3/5 (60%) for 10.68pts (+213.6%)
  • on Good to Soft ground : 3/8 (37.5%) for 8.62pts (+107.8%)
  • in handicaps : 3/9 (33.3%) for 9.75pts (+108.3%)
  • LTO winners are 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.98pts (+232.7%)
  • and those who ran in the previous 10 days are 2/4 (50%) for 6.96pts (+174%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hats Off To Larry @ 9/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.30pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.20 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.40 Thirsk : Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 7/4 (Dwelt, held up, headway over 2f out, went 2nd 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, lost 2nd and stayed on same pace, been by half a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth £7439 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, in all honesty, this 5 yr old gelding hasn't actually covered himself in glory during seven consecutive defeats in a Class 4 handicap at Pontefract in early July of last year, but there are mitigating circumstances.

He won that day off a mark of 86, but has since been running at Classes 2 & 3 off marks of 92 to 94, before finally getting some relief from the handicapper last time out when eased down to 88. He now drops back into Class 4 company for the first time since that last win and is now weighted a pound below that last winning mark, so now should be the time to at least give him a second glance.

Career stats aren't the best with just 3 wins from 24 on the Flat so far, but those 3 wins are relevant to today's conditions, as...

  • All 3 were achieved over 1m to 1m1f, all with Danny Tudhope in the saddle, all off marks from 78-86 and all withing a 6 week period of the year from mid-April to early July.
  • 2 were at Class 4, 2 were at odds of 3/1 or shorter and 2 were in fields of 5-8 runners

In fact...in fields of 5-8 runners off a mark of 78-86 with Danny in the saddle during that 6-week time frame, Lamloom is 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 8.42pts (+93.6% ROI), including...

  • 2/5 (40%) for 9.43pts (+188.5%) at Class 4
  • 2/5 (40%) for 0.5pts (+10%) shorter than 4/1
  • and 2/4 (50%) in fields of 5-8 runners.

He is trained by David O'Meara whose runners are 13/61 (21.3% SR) for 42.83pts (+70.2% ROI) over the last fortnight, including 2 winners and a place from 4 at Ripon yesterday.

Jockey Danny Tudhope is also in good touch, winning 25 of 105 (23.8% SR) for 50.39pts (+48% ROI) over the last 30 days...

...whilst together the trainer/jockey partnership is 15/54 (27.8%) for 59.78pts (+110.7%) in that same 30 day period.

Their success together isn't really too surprising and many people (myself included) have written plenty about this partnership, but as you all know by now, I'm not one for following an angle blindly, so with this duo, my first instinct is to look for the on the Flat at trips of 5f to 1m2f and this gives us 287 winners from 1697 runners (16.9% SR) for 316pts (+18.6% ROI) profit since the start of 2012.

So that I'm not accused of using old data to prop up my pick, I'll just focus on those qualifying from that criteria since the start of the 2017 campaign and that gives us 85 winners from 519 (16.4% SR) and 203.9pts of profit at a very healthy ROI of 39.4%, not counting yesterday's 5/1 winner from just two runners.

This angle actually gives us two possibles for today (as does some of the data below), but I prefer Lamloom's chances to those of Star Shield who is currently 3/1 BOG in the 5.15 race at this venue, and further analysis of those 519 runners shows that...

  • those rated (OR) 75-94 are 36/213 (16.9%) for 39.3pts (+18.5%)
  • those dropped 1-5lbs by the assessor are 28/182 (15.4%) for 39.6pts (+21.8%)
  • those last seen 4-15 days earlier are 35/177 (19.8%) for 74.7pts (+42.2%)
  • over trips of 7.5f to 8.5f : 27/152 (17.8%) for 46.3pts (+30.5%)
  • and in May : 25/134 (18.7%) for 142.8pts (+106.5%)

...whilst based upon the above...during March to May over 6f to 10f off marks of 75-94, but 1-5lbs lower than LTO = 10 from 39 (25.6% SR) for 104pts (+266.7% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.o5pm on Sunday, although you could get an extra quarter point from Betfair/Paddy Power, but they don't go BOG until 8.00am on raceday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th August 2017

Bank Holiday Monday's Result :

4.05 Cartmel : Morning Royalty @ 7/2 BOG - 3rd at 9/2 : Held up in rear, headway after 14th, no impression last, went 3rd towards finish...

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

5.45 Carlisle:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rossall @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

An opening mark of 76 looks very workable to me about this 2yr old who has shown improvement in each of his three starts to date, finishing as a runner-up over 5f last time out.

That run was at Thirsk 24 days ago and he now drops in class for his handicap debut and becomes of further interest to me, as his trainer Michael Dods' handicappers dropping down one grade are 48/354 (13.6% SR) for 165.3pts (+46.7% ROI) profit over the last six seasons, with those returning from a short break of 16 to 25 days winning 16 of 101 (15.8%) and making 56.1pts (+55.5%) in the process.

Today's jockey Paul Mulrennan is Rossall's only rider to date, so they've already begun to forge an understanding and Paul comes here aiming to add to his tally of 8 Carlisle wins already this season. Those eight wins have come from just 30 rides (26.7% SR) and have rewarded followers with profits of 20.9pts at an ROI of 69.5%. And, from those 30 rides, he is 5/10 (50%) for 21.5pts (+215%) on horses trained by Michael Dods!

And finally, Paul Mulrennan is one of the few jockeys you can regularly trust to get a favourite over the line, as he's been profitable to follow on favs in each of the past eight seasons, winning 192 times on 500 favourites (38.4% SR) for level stakes profits of 72.2pts (+14.4% ROI), including...

  • in handicaps : 104/308 (33.8%) for 57.3pts (+18.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 93/222 (41.9%) for 43.8pts (+19.7%)
  • and here at Carlisle : 12/31 (38.7%) for 4.95pts (+16%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rossall @ 3/1 BOG, which was widely available at 8.45pm on Monday, although there was some 10/3 BOG at Ladbrokes.. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2017

Saturday's Result :

5.00 Newmarket : Star Rock @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8 Keen early, tracked leader, led 3f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on gamely.

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Carlisle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heir of Excitement10/3 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has previously won over 7.5f and was only beaten by a length last time out when headed deep inside the the final furlong of a one mile contest four weeks ago, so I'd expect the drop back to 7f to be to his advantage.

The data supporting my pick today is both quite simple/straightforward and listed below...

Basically, trainer Kevin Ryan's runners at Carlisle are both successful (25/147 = 17% SR) and profitable to back blindly (134pts = +91.2% ROI) since 2008 and in respect of today's particular contest, I found a whole host of relevant angles from the 147 runners and here are "just" ten!

  • On good to firm/ good ground : 16/101 (15.8%) for 57.9pts (+57.3%)
  • at class 5 : 19/98 (19.4%) for 122.5pts (+125%)
  • in handicaps : 15/86 (17.4%) for 120.4pts (+140%)
  • in May/June  : 9/60 (15%) for 55.2pts (+92.1%)
  • on good to form ground : 8/54 (14.8%) for 30.1pts (+55.8%)
  • 3 yr olds are 7/42 (16.7%) for 43.2pts (+103%)
  • those finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO : 9/31 (29%) for 9.5pts (+30.7%)
  • those beaten by less than 3 lengths LTO : 8/29 (27.6%) for 21.5pts (+74.1%)
  • those dropping down in trip by 1f : 5/28 (17.9%) for 82.4pts (+294.4%)
  • and in 3yo only races : 4/28 (14.3%) for 31.9pts (+113.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Heir of Excitement10/3 BOG which was available with both Bet365 and Betvictor at 6.20pm on Sunday with plenty of acceptable 3/1 BOG elsewhere, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 20th February 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.50 Haydock : The Worlds End @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 Mid-division, went 3rd before 6 out, led 3 out, kept on well from last to win comfortably by 9 lengths.

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.30 Carlisle

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Theatre Act 5/1 BOG

Why?

Today's pick is trained by Chris Grant and is due to be ridden by Brian Hughes and both have done well here at Carlisle in the past. Chris' horses were 4/11 (36.4% SR) for 61.7pts (+560.8% ROI) here last year and although the profit/loss figure is clearly skewed by a big-priced winner, the numbers still look good, as they include the following...

  • at Class 4 : 4/10 (40%) for 62.7pts (+627%)
  • over hurdles : 4/8 (50%) for 64.7pts (+808.6%)
  • at 2m1f : 3/6 (50%) for 59.6pts (+993.4%)
  • at 11/10 to 6/1 odds : 3/3 (100%) for 10.56pts (+355.3%)
  • on Good to Soft : 2/3 (66.6%) for 58.2pts (+1939.5%)
  • and ridden by Brian Hughes : 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.5pts (+283.3%)

Once again, the big-priced winner caveat applies to the above.

Today's jockey, Brian Hughes is enjoying another of those purple patches he seems to have on a regualr basis, winning 7 of his 25 rides last week and he too had a great year at Carlisle in 2016, winning 14 of 44 (31.8% SR) for 30.2pts (+68.6% ROI) and aside from his 2 winners from 3 rides for Chris Grant, those 44 runners could be broken down as follows...

  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 12/27 (44.4%) for 22.9pts (+84.7%)
  • in handicaps : 7/24 (29.2%) for 24.2pts (+100.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 9/22 (40.9%) for 25.4pts (+115.5%)
  • over hurdles : 5/17 (29.4%) for 6.95pts (+40.9%)
  • on Good to Soft : 5/16 (31.25%) for 20.3pts (+126.9%)
  • and at 2m/2m1f : 6/14 (42.9%) for 7.2pts (+51.4%)

As for the horse, Theatre Act, she has finished 11551 in her last five outings winning on her last two visits here at Carlisle and also winning at Sedgefield LTO 22 days ago. She looks well suited to the task ahead, as her hurdles record includes...

  • 3 wins from 8 in fields of 10-12 runners, 3/6 under Brian Hughes, 3/5 in cheekpieces,
  • 2/5 after 18-23 days rest, 2/3 at Carlisle, 1/2 over course and distance, 1/2 on good to soft.

And, in addition to all the above data...Since the start of 2012, class 3 to 5 handicap hurdlers with CD next to their name on the racecard and were also winners (anywhere) LTO 11 to 30 days ago are 93/373 (24.9% SR) for 201.8pts (+54.1% ROI), from which...

  • those running 16-25 days since last seen are 47/173 (27.2%) for 134.5pts (+77.7%)
  • those running on good to soft are 18/65 (27.7%) for 68.4pts (+105.2%)
  • and those running on good to soft 16-25 days since last seen are 10/33 (30.3%) for 59.4pts (+180%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Theatre Act @ 5/1 BOG which was available with both Bet365 and BetVictor at 9.55pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 8th February 2017

Tuesday's Result :

3.40 Newcastle : Eastern Dragon @ 9/4 BOG 5th at 3/1 Dwelt, held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, stayed on, never on terms.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

4.30 Carlisle

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Alfie Spinner @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

Firstly, don't let his age (he's 12!) put you off as he comes here in prime form seeking a hat-trick, having won both his races since switching to Kerry Lee's yard. Wins over 3m on heavy and then over 3m3f on soft suggest that conditions here should be ideal for a horse who has won 5 of 13 on soft/heavy ground to date.

His new handler Kerry Lee has got her horses (particularly the chasers) running really well at present and her record in all contests since the start of 2016 is an impressive one at 32 from 166 (19.35 SR) for 95.8pts (+57.7% ROI), of which handicappers are 27/119 (22.7%) for 86.4pts (+72.6%)

I'm then naturally interested in how those 119 handicappers fare under similar conditions to today and I found the following being interesting and useful in my research...

  • males are 24/104 (23.1%) for 87pts (+83.6%)
  • those last seen 11-90 days back are 24/93 (25.8%) for 88.3pts (+95%)
  • chasers are 21/86 (24.4%) for 80.3pts (+93.4%)
  • on soft/heavy : 18/70 (25.7%) for 83.5pts (+119.3%)
  • ridden by Jamie Moore : 15/67 (22.4%) for 54.8pts (+81.8%)
  • on Soft ground : 9/46 (19.6%) for 25.9pts (+56.3%)
  • over trips of 3m to 3m6f : 10/36 (27.8%) for 57.6pts (+160.1%)
  • at Class 3 : 10/28 (35.7%) for 41.3pts (+147.4%)
  • 11-13 yr olds are 7/27 (25.9%) for 39.4pts (+146%)
  • and LTO winners are 8 from 24 (33.3%) for 25.9pts (+107.9%)

And if that's not enough to convince you, I'll chuck in the fact that the progeny of Alflora are 21 from 99 (21.2% SR) for 150.2pts (+151.7% ROI) profit  in Class 1 to 4 handicap chases over 2n7f and beyond on ground ranging from Good through to Soft since the start of 2015.

...leaving us with...a 1pt win bet on Alfie Spinner @ 4/1 BOG which was available with Bet365, Betfair, SkyBet and BetVictor at 6.05pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 20th October 2016

Wednesday's Result :

4.05 Worcester : Delores Delightful @ 15/2 BOG 3rd at 6/1 (Held up, towards rear, headway before 2 out, went 3rd from last, no impression on leading pair) Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but maybe E/W could have been the play?

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.45 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Little Glenshee at 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 10 yr old mare was a winner two starts ago in this grade on similarly soft ground over just half a furlong further at Ayr under today's jockey, before her next race just 11 days later back over the same Ayr track and trip proved a step too far for her, finishing third.

In her defence, that was her 4th run on soft/heavy at 2m4f and beyond inside 8 weeks, she was stepping up in class and had been raised 7lbs for the previous run. She's now down in class, down 3lbs and has been rested for 223 days with today's conditions seemingly more to her liking, should be ready first time up.

She's 6/27 under Lucy Alexander, 6/21 in fields of 6 to 8 runners, 4/15 at Class 4, 3/11 at 2m4f/2m4.5f and has won twice on soft ground.

In addition to her own stats, trainer Nick Alexander's NH runners dropping in class are 15 from 84 (17.9% SR) for 30.4pts (+36.2% ROI) profit when sent off at odds of 12/1 or shorter since the start of 2012. Admittedly, 84 runners isn't the biggest subset of data we've used for SotD, but you might be surprised that it does offer us quite a few profitable angles, of which I'm going to list just 10, as follows...

  • at odds of 3/1 to 12/1 : 13/72 (18.1%) for 36.6pts (+50.8%)
  • in fields of 5 to 9 runners : 11/54 (20.4%) for 27pts (+50%)
  • ridden by Lucy Alexander : 10/49 (20.4%) for 31.3pts (+63.9%)
  • chasers : 9/46 (19.6%) for 12.4pts (+26.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 9/42 (21.4%) for 22.6pts (+53.8%)
  • dropping from Class 3 : 10/39 (25.6%) for 39.5pts (+101.3%)
  • 9/10 year olds : 7/29 (24.1%) for 37.6pts (+129.8%)
  • returning from a break of 76-240 days : 7/18 (38.9%) for 37.4pts (+207.8%)
  • females : 3/12 (25%) for 2.82pts (+23.5%)
  • in October : 3/8 (37.5%) for 13.82pts (+172.7%)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Little Glenshee at 4/1 BOG, from BetVictor, Coral and/or Hills, who led the way at 8.55pm on Wednesday night and to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Carlisle.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...