Tag Archives: Brighton racecourse

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.20 Stratford : Black Buble @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 7/1 (Held up in rear, took keen hold, ridden and in touch after 2 out, no impression, well held last bend)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Toni's A Star @ 7/1

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over f on Good to Soft ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare was a winner here at class, course and distance two starts ago on her last turf outing (runner-up LTO on the Tapeta at Newcastle and unlucky in running) and although she's 4lbs higher than that last win, today's jockey Angus Villiers more than makes up for it with his 7lb claim, as he seeks to improve upon his 2 from 7 record already this month.

By sheer quirk of fate, we're back with yesterday's trainer, Tony Carroll, albeit at a different code, but he does have a decent record here at Brighton (actually much better than that at Stratford, but that's another matter) with 50 winners from 283 (17.7% SR) runners here over the last six (inc. this one) seasons generating blind profits of 65.6pts at a decent ROI of 23.2%.

Now I rarely (if ever) advise blindly following a trainer at a track and the first filter I'd apply today is to focus purely on handicaps which takes us to 49 from 275 (17.8%) and 71.5pts at an ROI of 26% and these include of relevance/note today...

  • 43/204 (21.1%) for 128.7pts (+63.1%) at odds of 2/1 to 14/1
  • 42/231 (18.2%) for 79.7pts (+34.5%) during June to October
  • 42/223 (18.8%) for 89.5pts (+40.1%) from 4-9 yr olds
  • 34/175 (19.4%) for 55.3pts (+31.6%) from those with a run in the previous 25 days
  • 29/110 (26.4%) for 54.1pts (+49.2%) finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO
  • and 15/74 (20.3%) for 29.6pts (+40%) this year alone.

This then brings me back towards my "Tony Carroll @ Brighton" saved angle in the Geegeez Query Tool, which tells me that backing 3 to 9 yr olds here at 2/1 to 14/1 in June to October has yielded 36 winners from 160 (22.5% SR) for profits of 136.9pts (+85.5% ROI)!

Please note, if you're looking to replicate my angle, the odds filter can't be included in the query, it needs to be done manually afterwards, as SP prices aren't known until after they've raced!

The above numbers include 12 winners from 47 (25.5%) for 45.8pts (+97.4%) this year and Toni's A Star run here two starts ago...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Toni's A Star @ 7/1 as was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th September 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.25 Kempton : Streamline @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/2 (Chased leaders, went 2nd over 1f out, ran on to lead final 100 yards, won going away)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.50 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Long Call @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner (was 9), Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

Over the last year, this 6 yr old gelding has finished on the first three home on four of six occasions, winning twice, including a course and distance success here LTO some 32 days ago under today's jockey, pulling clear as the finish unfolded, yet is only raised 2lbs for that effort, but does drop down in class.

To date he has 2 wins and 3 places from 6 runs on Good to Firm ground, 2 wins and a place from 3 attempts at this 10f trip, he's 1 from 1 here at Brighton (C&D LTO) and 1 from 1 under jockey Tom Marquand (also C&D LTO).

His trainer, Tony Carroll, is 4 from 13 (30.8%) over the past week and jockey Tom is 6 from 29 (20.7%) in the same period, whilst together they are 11/45 (24.4% SR) for 56.5pts (+125.7% ROI) in Flat handicaps this season, including 5/13 (38.5%) for 28.9pts (+222.4%) here at Brighton.

More longer-term, Tony's Flat handicappers racing over 6f to 1m2f here at Brighton are 39/204 (19.1% SR) for 101.2pts (+49.6% ROI) profit over the last six seasons, including...

  • 34/164 (20.7%) for 92.6pts (+56.5%) from males
  • 35/148 (23.7%) for 147.9pts (+99.9%) at odds of 9/4 to 14/1
  • 22/100 (22%) for 48.7pts (+48.7%) on Good to Firm
  • 10/49 (20.4%) for 33.2pts (+67.8%) in 2019
  • 8/38 (21%) for 13.5pts (+35.6%) from those dropping down a class
  • 10/35 (28.6%) for 20.8pts (+59.4%) in September
  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 46.3pts (+140.2%) at Class 5
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 15.1pts (+54%) from 6 yr olds
  • and 5/24 (20.8%) for 20.4pts (+85.1%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle

...from which...males at 9/4 to 14/1 on Good to Firm are 16/62 (25.8% SR) for 68.2pts (+110% ROI) and this includes 8/26 (30.8%) this year, 4/15 (26.7%) using Tom Marquand and 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 26.7pts (+333.3%) for Tom this year.

And finally for today, you might be interested to read that Tony Carroll's LTO C&D winners are 9 from 14 (64.3% SR) for 21pts (+150% ROI) at odds of 5/1 and shorter in UK handicaps since the start of 2018, including 2/2 for 5.94pts here at Brighton (and 3 of the 5 losers still made the frame!)...

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Long Call @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.10pm on Sunday, although Bet365 were offering an extra half point at that time. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th August 2019

Monday's pick was...

4.45 Lingfield : Tarseekh @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Led, pushed along 2f out, ridden and headed close home, beaten by half a length)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Paddy The Chef @ 9/2 non-BOG until morning or 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding has hardly set the world on fire with a string of a dozen defeats since his solitary success almost 59 weeks ago, but his best run of the 12 losses was surely his effort at Yarmouth last time out, when finishing third in a big field (16 ran) just 1.25 lengths off the winner whilst staying on well at the end.

The extra half furlong here gives me more hope of him stepping up here, as does the fact he comfortably beat three of today's rivals comfortably that day and with jockey Cieren Fallon taking the ride and claiming 5lbs today off an unaltered mark, that should also work in our/his favour.

Stat-wise, it revolves around horses coming off losing runs and the marks allotted to them by the official handicapper, as trainer Ian Williams' Class 5/6 handicappers running off marks lower than their last win are 24 from 141 (17% SR) for 74.9pts (+53.1% ROI) profit over the last six (inc. this one, of course) seasons, including of relevance today...

  • 22/113 (19.5%) for 71.1pts (+63%) from 3-7 yr olds
  • 20/79 (25.3%) for 61.8pts (+78.2%) at SP odds of 9/4 to 11/1
  • 19/117 (16.2%) for 69.5pts (+59.4%) within 45 days of their last run
  • 15/47 (31.9%) for 33.5pts (+71.2%) at SP odds of 9/4 to 6/1
  • 14/49 (28.6%) for 72.1pts (+147.1%) from those on a run of 11-16 defeats
  • 11/62 (17.7%) for 27.2pts (+43.9%) on the Flat
  • and 8/16 (50%) for 34.06pts (+212.9%) from those finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO

...whilst, based on the above and of interest here... 4 to 7 yr olds with 11-16 consecutive defeats now sent off at odds of 9/4 to 11/1 after a break of 1-3 weeks are 7 from 10 (70% SR) for 52.41pts (+524.1% ROI), including 3 from 4 (75%) for 22.32pts (+558%) from those finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Paddy The Chef @ 9/2 non-BOG until morning or 4/1 BOG as was available from BF/PP and Bet365 respectively at 5.25pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th August 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

5.50 Pontefract : Highly Sprung @ 6/1 BOG  6th at 11/2 (Chased leaders, ridden 2f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.10 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wiley Post @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 5½f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6yr old gelding won this very race last year off a mark one pound higher than today and although he hasn't won since (lightly raced, in fairness), he showed signs of a return to form when beaten by less than a length last time out 23 days ago, also off today's mark but crucially at Class 3 and it is hoped that dropping two classes will make all the difference here today, as he aims to be the next Tony Carroll-trained winner of a Brighton handicap.

In fact, over the last six seasons, Tony's handicappers are 36 from 174 (20.7% SR) for 91.6pts (+52.7% ROI) at odds of 6/4 to 14/1 at this venue, including of relevance today...

  • 21/101 (20.8%) for 73.4pts (+72.7%) after a break of 6-25 days
  • 12/53 (22.6%) for 37.7pts (+71.1%) in August
  • 9/44 (20.5%) for 5.81pts (+13.2%) from class droppers
  • and 9/38 (23.7%) for 35.6pts (+93.6%) at Class 5...

...with those racing in August after a break of 6-25 days winning 6 of 29 (20.7% SR) for 26.9pts (+92.8% ROI).

I'm trying to keep it brief today, but I feel I should quickly touch on jockey Tom Marquand, because he is 19 from 100 (19% SR) for 313.5pts (313.5% ROI) here at Brighton over the last three seasons...

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Wiley Post @ 4/1 BOG as was offered widely at 5.35pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd July 2019

Monday's pick was...

7.45 Windsor : Embour @ 10/3 BOG WON at 7/2 (Raced keenly, tracked leaders on inside, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on well to win by half a length)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kachumba @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good To Firm ground worth £2782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old filly was third last time out, when beaten by just a length here over course and distance in a Class 5 handicap five weeks ago. Whilst she was resting, the winner of that race stepped up to Class 4 and won again, so her rest allied to a one pound easing in the weights and a drop in class would suggest that a similar effort should be enough to land her yet another win on a track she seems to love.

She has 4 wins and a place from 13 efforts in Flat handicaps so far, which is better than most at this level, and with today's contest in mind, those 13 runs have produced...

  • 4 wins, 1 place from 9 when sent off at 6/1 or shorter
  • 4 wins from 8 off a mark (OR) lower than the 68 she ran off LTO
  • 4 from 8 on Good to Firm
  • 3 from 6 here at Brighton
  • 2 from 4 at Class 6
  • and 1 from 1 under today's jockey Dane O'Neill

Her trainer, Rae Guest, doesn't actually send that many runners here. Whether it's the 250-mile round trip in usually heavy traffic or some other reason, I doubt it's down to a lack of success as since 2011, those that have come here and have run at odds of 10/1 or shorter are 10 from 32 (31.25% SR) for 15.44pts (+48.25% ROI) profit with the following angles at play today...

  • Over 6f to 1m : 9/17 (52.9%) for 26.01pts (+153%)
  • Rae's only runner at the venue on the day : 9/25 (36%) for 17.64pts (+70.6%)
  • Females : 8/30 (26.7%) for 13.05pts (+43.5%)
  • 16-45 days since last run : 7/16 (43.75%) for 19.28pts (+120.5%)
  • On Good to Firm : 6/16 (37.5%) for 18.21pts (+113.8%)
  • In handicaps : 6/27 (22.2%) for 8.08pts (+29.9%)
  • And since 2016 : 5/13 (38.5%) for 9.41pts (+72.4%)

...from which...Females racing over 6f to 1m on Good to Firm ground 16-45 days after their last race and were Rae Guest's only runner at Brighton on the day have won 5 of 7 (71.4% SR) for 22.8pts (+325.6% ROI) profit, including 3 from 5 (60%) for 18.68pts (+373.6%) in handicaps...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kachumba @ 7/2 BOG as offered by Bet365 & Betway at 5.45pm on Monday with plenty of 10/3 BOG knocking about. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th June 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.45 Southwell : Graceland @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 2/1 (Raced on inside, chased leader, led before 3rd until 2 out, lost 2nd between last 2, no extra in 3rd)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.15 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shamshon @ 13/2 or 11/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5½f on Good to Firm ground worth £5531 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, we have an 8yr old gelding with a win and a place from three visits to this track including two runs over course and distance that saw him finish as a runner-up and then as a winner when last tackling the C&D three starts ago, when ridden by today's jockey for three first/only previous occasion.

He last ran seven days ago and he has a 6/24 (25% SR) record that has produced 12.22pts profit at an ROI of 50.9% when turned back out 6-12 days after his last run, including 6/17 (35.3%) for 19.2pts (+113.1%) at odds of 11/4 to 7/1, from which he is 2 from 5 (40%) for 4.01pts (+80.2%) at Class 4.

His quick re-appearance should not only suit him, but is also one of the regular methods deployed by trainer Stuart Williams, whose Flat handicappers are 15 from 63 (23.8% SR) for 41.2pts (+65.4% ROI) over the last three (inc. this one) seasons when turned back out after less than 10 days rest, from which...

  • males are 14/55 (25.5%) for 41.3pts (+75%)
  • those running in June/August are 10/35 (28.6%) for 41.3pts (+118%)
  • and Class 4 runners are 6/21 (28.6%) for 23.3pts (+110.8%)

And I'm going to round today's piece off with a quick look at our jockey Jason Watson. The reason for this is that some jockeys just "get" a certain track (like Messrs Bishop, Dettori, Norton & de Sousa at Epsom for example) and Jason has done far better in short distance races here at Brighton in comparison with his overall stats.

He's still learning his trade, of course, bit of a career record reading 144/1013 (14.22% SR) for a small loss of 33.76pts (-3.33% ROI), he's actually 11 from 27 (40.7% SR) for 39.7pts (+147.1% ROI) in Flat handicaps over 5.5 to 6 furlongs here at Brighton, of which he's 4 from 9 (44.4%) for 19.9pts (+221.2%) since riding out his claim last October...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shamshon @ 13/2 or 11/2 BOG from Bet365 / Sky respectively, whilst 5/1 BOG was offered by a whole host of firms at 5.25pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th June 2019

Monday's pick was...

8.40 Windsor : Oydis @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/4 (Soon prominent, led 8f out, headed over 6f out, stayed prominent, strong challenge final furlong, led towards finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.50 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oliver Hardy @ 4/1 or 7/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6 Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old colt was successful last time out, 15 days ago, here at Brighton over 1m2f under today's jockey Rossa Ryan in a win that took the rider's record in handicaps at this venue to 8 from 29 (27.6% SR) for 25.8pts (+89%) since the start of last season and those include...

  • 5 wins from 8 (62.5%) for 30.5pts (+381.7%) since losing his claim
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 23.5pts (+156.9%) on male runners
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 22.4pts (+117.6%) at Class 6
  • 4/8 (50%) for 16.8pts (+210%) in June
  • and 4/10 (40%) for 14.77pts (+147.7%) on 3 yr olds

And whilst those 29 rides only include one for trainer Paul Cole (Oliver Hardy's LTO win, of course), Rossa is 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 36.53pts (+405.9% ROI) on Paul's handicappers since the start of 2018.

Meanwhile Paul Cole himself is no slouch at this track, with decent returns for a long number of years now, but we'll stick to more relevant/recent results to analyse, as his runners sent off here at 8/1 or shorter are 11 from 29 (37.9% SR) for 24.3pts (+83.8% ROI) over the last 5 (inc. this one) seasons, from which...

  • males are 10/25 (40%) for 22.7pts (+90.8%)
  • 2-4 yr olds are 9/21 (42.9%) for 24.1pts (+114.7%)
  • those competing for less than £4,000 are 7/18 (38.9%) for 19.7pts (+109.3%)
  • at Class 6 : 2/4 950%) for 9pts (+225%)
  • and in June : 2/5 (40%) for 6.94pts (+138.7%)

...whilst 2-4 yr old males competing for less than £4k are 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 18.4pts (+167.6% ROI) including, of course, Oliver Hardy's win last time out...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Oliver Hardy @ 4/1 or 7/2 BOG as offered by Bet365 and SkyBet respectively at 6.20pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.15 Carlisle : Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Soon led, driven and headed 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace, no impression in 4th inside final furlong)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dark Poet @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £3429 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old is making just a fifth start today, with little/no data to work from, so I'll focus on jockey and trainer, who both do very well at this quirky venue.

We'll start with our jockey, Adam Kirby, whose record here over the last four (and a bit, ie since April 2015) seasons stands at 23 winners from 79 (29.1% SR) generating 45.4pts of level stakes profit at an excellent ROI of some 57.5% and these include of relevance today...

  • at Class 6 : 10/30 (33.3%) for 28.5pts (+95.1%)
  • over 7f : 4/15 (26.7%) for 12.9pts (+85.7%)
  • and in May : 5/14 (35.7%) for 12.4pts (+85.7%)...

...whilst trainer Clive Cox hasn't been as active as Adam here in recent years but actually has better figures than the jockey with 10 winners from 29 (34.5% SR) producing 17.6pts at an ROI of 60.5% backed blindly since 2014, from which...

  • those sent off at 8/1 or shorter are 10/23 (43.5%) for 23.6pts (+102.6%)
  • those ridden by Adam Kirby are 8/17 (47.1%) for 17.06pts (+100.3%)
  • on ground deemed quicker than Good : 7/15 (46.7%) for 14.11pts (+94.1%)
  • runners with less than 3 weeks rest are 5/11 (45.5%) for 18.04pts (+164%)
  • over this 7f course and distance : 3/8 (37.5%) for 8.83pts (+110.4%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 3.4pts (+42.5%)
  • and in May : 3/7 (42.9%) for 9.06pts (+129.5%)

...and from the above... Cox + Kirby + Brighton + Good to Firm = 5/9 (55.6% SR) for 7.62pts (+84.7% ROI), including 3 from 6 with runners who raced less than 25 days earlier, 2 from 4 at Class 6, 1 from 2 over the 7f C&D and 1 from 1 in May...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dark Poet @ 9/2 BOG which available from BetVictor & Hills (latter non-BOG until midnight) at 6.o5pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th October 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

5.35 Bath : Pure Shores @ 9/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (Held up in last, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, drew clear final furlong, won readily by two lengths)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arcanista @ 13/2 BOG  

...in a 12-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5½f on Good ground worth £3752 to the winner...  

Why?

A very much in-form 5 yr old mare who'll feel right at home here today if nothing else. Her last three races have all been here at Brighton, all over 6f, all on good to firm ground at increasingly better quality (C6, C5 and then C4 LTO), resulting in 3 wins!

Conditions are slightly different in that she's dropping back slightly in trip and racing on slightly slower ground and although there's no science/hard facts involved here, I think from a stamina point of view, the two could cancel each other out. What I do know is that she's dropping back in class today, which has to be a positive.

Lewis Edmunds rode her for the very first time last time out (31 days ago) and he retains the ride today, so there's another positive there and stats-wise, I'm going to keep it relatively short but hopefully sweet, as I focus on...

...trainer Chris Dwyer and specifically his Flat handicappers (logically) who are 30 from 190 (15.8% SR) for 55pts (+28.9% ROI) over the last three (inc. this one) seasons. Those are strong numbers from blindly betting all runners, but I know you wouldn't want to do that, so here are some ways you could reduce your outlay, whilst maintaining/improving the SR and/or ROI...

  • those who last raced 3 to 8 weeks ago are 16/84 (19.1%) for 64.5pts (+76.8%) you could, I suppose, stop here!
  • females are 15/82 (18.3%) for 48.8pts (+59.5%)
  • from August to October inclusive : 16/79 (20.3%) for 77.9pts (+98.6%)
  • this season alone : 13/67 (19.4%) for 44.7pts (+66.7%)
  • those dropping down a class are 9/37 (24.3%) for 62.5pts (+169%)
  • those ridden by Lewis Edmunds : 7/32 (21.9%) for 42.7pts (+133.4%)
  • LTO winners are 5/26 (19.2%) for 6.97pts (+26.8%)
  • in October only : 4/17 (23.5%) for 29.1pts (+171.3%)
  • and here at Brighton : 4/12 (33.3%) for 3.5pts (+29.2%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Arcanista @ 13/2 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th June 2018

Monday's Pick was...

7.10 Windsor : Edge of the World @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Restless in stalls and slowly into stride, soon mid-division on outside, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong, went 3rd near finish)

Next up is Tuesday's...

2.15 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Strictly Carter @ 5/1 BOG

An 11-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 5yr old gelding actually won this race last year under today's jockey off a mark 1lb higher than today, so he certainly hasn't been weighted out of contention and showed intent with a creditable third placed finish over course and distance last time out 15 days ago, despite being poorly drawn in a race not run to suit him.

Stat-wise, I've been accused on several occasions lately that my picks have lacked logic, so I'm going to keep it simple, although there is plenty of compelling data in what I will share today. I'll leave the more complicated stuff out!

So, we'll start with trainer Alan Bailey and his record at Brighton, which stands at 12 from 43 (27.9% SR) for 36.9pts (+85.9% ROI) profit since the start of the 2011 season, from which...

  • handicappers are 9/37 (24.3%) for 35.4pts (+95.7%)
  • those last seen 6-45 days ago are 11/36 (30.6%) for 39.8pts (+110.7%)
  • top 5 finish LTO : 12/30 (40%) for 49.9pts (+166.4%)
  • Class 6 : 6/26 (23.1%) for 5.5pts (+21.2%)
  • males : 8/23 (34.8%) for 31.3pts (+136.2%)
  • at 6/1 and shorter : 10/21 (47.6%) for 28.9pts (+137.8%)
  • on Good to Firm : 7/20 (35%) for 35.3pts (+176.5%)
  • since the start of last season : 4/9 944.4%) for 16.66pts (+185.1%)
  • and 5 yr olds are 2/4 (50%) for 20.6pts (+515%)

Meanwhile, today's jockey, 5lb claimer Joshua Bryan is 4 from 16 (25% SR) for 8.32pts (+52%) here at this venue whilst overall he is 7 from 39 (18% SR) for 10.9pts (+28% ROI) for trainer Alan Bailey.

The partnership is strongest on the Flat, where they are 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 23.9pts (+92% ROI) profit and these runners include...

  • handicaps : 7/24 (29.2%) for 25.9pts (+108%)
  • claiming 5lbs : 6/18 (33.3%) for 26.8pts (+149%)
  • at 8/1 and shorter : 7/14 (50%) for 35.9pts (+256.4%)
  • on Good to Firm : 2/7 (28.6%) for 9.54pts (+136.2%)
  • Class 6 : 2/5 (40%) for 9.8pts (+196%)

...and claiming 5lbs on a handicapper priced at 8/1 and shorter = 6/9 (66.6% SR) for 35.8pts at an ROI of 398.1%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Strictly Carter @ 5/1 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!