Tag Archives: Brian Hughes

Stat of the Day, 21st December 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.20 Southwell : Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG non-runner (meeting abandoned after the refund cut-off point)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.40 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3,  Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £7,213 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding comes here on the back of four straight wins, a run of form that represents his entire record from the last winter season and his entire chasing career to date. He was last seen winning by five lengths over much further (3m1f) on similarly soft ground and now attempts to pick up where he left off some 41 weeks ago.

I'm not too concerned about the layoff, as the first of those four wins came a year and a day ago, having been off the track for 36 weeks, so he's expected to go well fresh again today and with regards to his so-far perfect 4 from 4 record over fences...

  • he's 3/3 on Soft ground, the other win was on heavy
  • he has won over 2m4f previously, but has the stamina to stay 3m1f
  • today's jockey Brian Hughes has ridden all four wins
  • all four wins were on left handed tracks
  • he's 3 from 3 as a 7 yr old

Both trainer Nicky Richards and jockey Brian Hughes have good records here at Newcastle and that's a fairly well worn statistical path and is denoted on your racecard with the green icons, so I'm not going there today. Instead, I'm hopefully going to tell you something you don't already know about Glittering Love's suitability for the task, based on his breeding.

He's by Winged Love, whose offspring are 57 from 291 (19.6% SR) for 68.9pts (+23.7% ROI) in UK NH handicaps on Soft ground or "worse" over the last 5 years, including of note/relevance today...

  • 53/216 (24.5%) for 115.9pts (+53.7%) at odds of 6/5 to 12/1
  • 44/208 (21.2%) for 59.2pts (+28.5%) at Classes 2 to 4
  • 44/190 (23.2%) for 62.2pts (+32.8%) with horses younger than 9 yrs old
  • 36/191 (18.9%) for 60.7pts (+31.8%) on soft ground
  • 33/178 (18.5%) for 55.2pts (+31%) over fences
  • 30/107 (28%) for 78.8pts (+73.6%) during December & January
  • 14/58 (24.1%) for 38.0pts (+65.6%) over 2m4f-2m4.5f
  • 9/16 (56.25%) for 18.4pts (+115.2%) trained by Nicky Richards
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 21.4pts (+178.7%) here at Newcastle
  • and 5 from 6 (83.3%) for 9.3pts (+154.7%) with Brian Hughes in the saddle...

...whilst if you wanted a 25-30 picks per year micro-system based around the above that used just 47% of the original 291 bets, but generated nearly 74% of the winners and almost doubled the profits, then 5-11 yr olds sent off at 6/5 to 12/1 at Classes 2 to 5 during November to February are 42 from 137 (30.7% SR) for 135.6pts at an ROI of 99%...

...sending us off for Christmas with...a 1pt win bet on Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.15pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th June 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.40 Ascot : Defoe @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Held up in 6th on outside, pushed along 3f out, switched left and headway towards outside over 2f out, 2nd inside final 2f, went right and led over 1f out, ridden and stayed on well)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Graceland @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4 Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1mf on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare has three wins and a place from her five efforts over hurdles this year and comes here on a hat-trick since a wind op was followed by comfortable made all wins at Cartmel 30 days ago and then again at Stratford last time out on Tuesday of last week (I had a few quid on her that day too, so she owes me nothing).

Both wins were comfortable affairs leading from the front, both were at Class 3, both under jockey Brian Hughes and she was wearing a hood on both occasions. Brian and the hood are in situ once again, but she now drops in class and carries a top weight of 12-3 here today. Some might say the weight could be an issue, but I'm not in that camp, as I'll explain shortly.

Brian Hughes is in decent touch right now, winning 13 of 58 (22.4% SR) for 14.8pts (+25.5% ROI) in the past 30 days, whilst trainer Donald McCain has also had a good time of it recently with his own 30-day record standing at 13/51 (25.5% SR) for 25.5pts (+50% ROI) and it's fair to say both the trainer and jockey's recent successes have been fairly co-dependent as the partnership is 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 17.2pts (+81.9% ROI) in that 30-day time frame including 6 from 12 (50% SR) for 16pts (+133.3% ROI) over hurdles.

Now, back to the elephant (or top weight horse) in the room, namely the position of Graceland at the top of the racecard, where you might (or might not) be surprised to read that since the start of 2014 in UK Class 4 handicap hurdle contests, horses aged 7-9 yrs old with the clear top OR and weight carried in the race are 23 from 83 (27.7% SR) for 28.4pts (+34.2% ROI) when asked to carry 12 stones or more and these include of relevance today...

  • 22/45 (48.9%) for 58.14pts (+129.2%) at sub-6/1 starting prices
  • 12/22 (54.6%) for 27.52pts (+125.1%) as LTO winners
  • 12/40 (30%) for 16.87pts (+42.2%) from 7 yr olds
  • 12/42 (28.6%) for 21.25pts (+50.6%) from those with an OR of 115-125
  • 11/28 (39.3%) for 20.5pts (+73.4%) had raced in the previous fortnight
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 25.86pts (+84%) on Good ground
  • 7/20 (35%) for 14.99pts (+75%) over trips of 15.5 to 16.5 furlongs
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.46pts (+74.7%) in May/June
  • 3/4 (75%) for 3.54pts (+88.5%) here at Southwell
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.05pts (+88.1%) from female runners

...whilst 7 yr old LTO winners sent off shorter than 6/1 are 6 from 10 (60% SR) for 14.75pts (+147.5% ROI)...

And finally (phew!), I want to touch on the subject of the pace tab on our racecards , as I did on Saturday with Defoe. Matt and I often get asked about the relevance of pace in NH races and whether it's really as important as it is on the Flat. Well, the simple answer is that yes, it can be as important and Graceland was flagged up on one of my saved pace-related angles on the Geegeez Query Tool...

...basically over the last 6 months, 5-9 yr olds carrying 12st to 12st 5lbs in UK Class 4/5 NH handicaps on any ground other than heavy are 14/50 (28% SR) for 7.2pts (+14.4% ROI) when showing a previous average pace score of 4 (ie likes to lead/make all), from which those sent off at odds of 5/4 to 7/1 are 13/35 (37.1%) for 20.63pts (+58.9%).  These are based on Industry SP and can of course be beaten by Betfair SP and/or BOG odds.

And having a pace score of 4 in each of her races this year, I would expect her to attempt to make all and win from the front once again...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Graceland @ 3/1 BOG as offered by Bet365, BetVictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 6.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th March 2019

Monday's pick was...

6.45 Wolverhampton : Distant Mirage @ 3/1 BOG 6th at 11/4 (Towards rear, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and stayed on final furlong, nearest finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glinger Flame 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4f on Soft/Good to Soft ground worth £6758 to the winner...

Why?...

A lightly raced 7 yr gelding making a handicap debut is the one carrying my money today (hope the added weight doesn't stop him!). He's had just four runs to date (2 of which were in bumpers), finishing in the frame (3323) each time and his two efforts over hurdles have seen him only beaten by a neck and then a length, so it wouldn't take much improvement to get him up for a first win.

And with no disrespect intended to Ryan Day, I feel the booking of Brian Hughes in the saddle might just make that little bit of difference needed, especially as he's got an 18.9% strike rate (67 from 355) on this track since 2011, including winning 14 of 64 (21.9% SR) since the start of 2018.

Trainer Nicky Richards trains this horse just 45 miles away from this venue and it's surprising that he's only sent 59 runners here since 2012. What isn't surprising, however, is that he does well with the ones he does send over, a sign of picking and choosing the right races, perhaps?

Of those 59 runners sent on the short hour or so journey, 17 (28.8% SR) have won, generating level stakes profits of 12.93pts at an ROI of 21.9%, so it's not a lack of success keeping him away, surely.

Anyway, it's not for me to guess why he's not a regular here, but I can tell you that of those 59 visitors...

  • those sent off at 7/1 and shorter are 16/41 (39%) for 21.3pts (+51.9%)
  • hurdlers are 10/36 (27.8%) for 5.8pts (+16.1%)
  • handicappers are 9/30 (30%) for 14.5pts (+48.2%)
  • 6-8 yr olds are 13/29 (44.8%) for 28.6pts (+98.5%)
  • Class 4 runners are 8/29 (27.6%) for 5.3pts (+18.2%)
  • over trips of 2m4f - 3m : 11/23 (47.8%) for 24.6pts (+107.1%)
  • those racing on Soft/Good to Soft ground are 8/18 (44.4%) for 12.9pts (+71.4%)
  • those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 8/16 (50%) for 14.1pts (+88%)
  • and those ridden by Brian Hughes are 3/5 (60%) for 2.86pts (+57.1%)

And with this horse making his handicap bow, it's also worth noting that since 2012, Nicky's handicap debutants are 14/66 (21.2% SR) for 15.7pts (+23.9% ROI), including of note today...

  • Oct-April = 13/56 (23.2%) for 21.2pts (+37.9%)
  • hrds = 10/56 (17.9%) for 7.1pts (+12.6%)
  • males = 14/53 (26.4%) for 28.7pts (+54.2%)
  • Sub-5/1 = 12/35 (34.3%) for 22.7pts (+65%)
  • 1-6 months off track = 9/35 (25.7%) for 22.1pts (+63%)
  • Soft/Gd to Soft = 7/29 (24.1%) for 19.1pts (+65.7%)
  • Class 4 = 9/26 (34.6%) for 23.7pts (+91.2%)
  • at 2m4f = 5/11 (45.5%) for 24.1pts (+218.9%)
  • and 7 yr olds = 4/10 (40%) for 17.26pts (+172.6%)

...from which sub-5/1 male hurdlers running in November to April within 4 months of their last outing are 7 from 13 (53.9% SR) for 21.5pts (+165.6% ROI) profit, including...

  • at Class 4  :5/8 (62.5%) for 16.03pts (+200.4%)
  • on Soft/Gd to Soft : 4/6 (66.6%) for 13.65pts (+227.4%)
  • whilst those racing at Class 4 on Soft/Gd to Soft are 2 from 2 (100%) for 7.15pts (+357.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Glinger Flame 3/1 BOG which was available from at least 8 firms at 5.50pm on Monday, but Bet365 were offering an extra half point for those quick enough/allowed to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st January 2019

Monday's Pick was...

1.40 Uttoxeter : Gonnabegood @ 11/2 BOG PU at 11/4 (Prominent, driven 14th, soon beaten, pulled up before 2 out)

Tuesday's first pick of the year runs in the...

2.15 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chica Buena @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Good ground worth £19494 to the winner...

Why?

Well, as it's New Year's Eve/Day depending on when/if you're reading this, I'm going to keep it brief as we've all more important things to do!

So, we have an in-form now 4yr old filly who has won four races on the bounce since finishing as a runner up in a grade 3 event in Ireland last year, including winning a Listed event by some 23 lengths at Aintree last time out 24 days ago.

That win took her record for her new trainer to 3 from 3 and today's jockey Brian Hughes was on board for all three rides.

And that new trainer?

...is Keith Dalgleish, whose hurdlers priced at 10/1 and shorter are 9 from 29 (31% SR) for 11.7pts (+40.3% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • on Good ground : 5/14 (35.7%) for 7.57pts (+54.1%)
  • in handicaps : 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.95pts (+64%)
  • in December/January : 4/12 (33.3%) for 16.91pts (+140.9%)
  • 3/4 yr olds are 4/10 (40%) for 18.3pts (+183%)
  • 16-45 dslr : 6/15 (40%) for 15.1pts (+100.7%)
  • over this 1m7½f course and distance : 2/7 (28.6%) for 5.82pts (+83.2%)
  • and LTO winners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 3.51pts (+87.8%)

...and this simple approach gives us... a 1pt win bet on Chica Buena @ 4/1 BOG, as was available from Betfair, BetVictor, Coral & Hills at 7.25pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th December 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

12.50 Southwell : Kommander Kirkup @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Towards rear, pushed along 4f out, ridden and headway entering final 2f, no impression final furlong) - never really travelled well to be honest and was being bumped along from an early point.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Echo Express @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft (Heavy in places) ground worth £4484 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding was a decent enough runner-up when last seen 3 weeks ago, that was over course and distance and was only his second visit to Hexham (placed both times), first crack at the minimum trip, first effort over fences and first time with today's jockey Brian Hughes in the saddle, as well as his first run in over 25 weeks.

With that pipe-opener under his belt and running in similar condition to LTO, allied to a drop in class and weight, there are plenty of reasons to be confident about a decent run again today.

His yard is going well enough right now too, trainer Nicky Richards had a couple of winners at relatively-nearby Kelso last Sunday and although he doesn't send many runners on the short 45 mile trip from his Cumbrian HQ over to Hexham, those that come here tend to fare pretty well with his handicappers winning 7 of 27 (25.9% SR) for 11.01pts (+40.8% ROI) since the start of 2013, including the following of relevance today...

  •  at odds of 7/1 and shorter : 6/18 (33.3%) for 10.36pts (+57.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.91pts (+63.6%)
  • in chases : 3/14 (21.4%) for 4.63pts (+33.1%)
  • within 30 days of their last run : 5/11 (45.5%) for 14.95pts (+135.9%)
  • dropping down a class : 3/9 (33.3%) for 4.24pts (+47.1%)
  • 6 yr olds : 4/7 (57.1%) for 19.82pts (+283.1%)
  • and those with a top 3 finish LTO are 3/7 (42.9%) for 4.19pts (+59.9%)

We've got soft ground that's going to be heavy in places today and a 7-runner field largely bereft on any discernible form in such conditions, but not our boy. He has a win and a place from three runs on soft and was placed in one of his two heavy ground runs, but that's not a surprise when you consider the fact that since the start of 2014, Nicky Richards' handicappers are 51 from 233 (21.9% SR) for 65.2pts (+28% ROI) when backed blindly on any ground deemed soft or worse. Mind you, he does train his horses in one of the wettest locations in England!

Of these 233 mudlarks, with today's race in mind...

  • males are 49/216 (22.7%) for 72.7pts (+33.7%)
  • chasers are 22/105 (21%) for 27pts (+25.8%)
  • in December / January : 20/90 (22.2%) for 47.9pts (+46.5%)
  • top 2 finish LTO : 25/84 (29.8%) for 27pts (+32.1%)
  • within 25 days of last run : 20/73 (27.4%) for 54.9pts (+75.2%)
  • 6 yr olds are 15/50 (30%) for 57pts (+54%)
  • ridden by Brian Hughes : 2/5 (40%) for 13.1pts (+262.2%)
  • and here at Hexham : 2/4 (50%) for 0.42pts (+10.6%)

...and based around the above categories : Since the start of 2014, Nicky Richards' 5-10 yr old male handicap chasers racing on soft/heavy ground in December to February, 2 to 8 weeks after a top 4 finish LTO are 14 from 29 (48.3% SR) for 52.7pts (+181.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Echo Express @ 10/3 BOG, as offered by Bet365 & SkyBet respectively at 5.35pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

PPS Thursday's selection will appear later on Wednesday than usual, I've got an appointment I can't get out of!

Stat of the Day, 10th September 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

3.55 Ascot : Ghostwatch @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Tracked leading pair on inside, went 2nd on inner over 2f out, led 2f out, ridden and headed entering final furlong, kept on same pace, no chance with winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Perth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Running In Heels @ 7/2 BOG  

In an 8-runner, Class 4 Novices Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m½f on Good ground, worth £4640 to the winner... 

Why?

On what looks a poor day of racing, this one caught my eye from a variety of different statistical angles, but I'll just share a few ideas with you (for the sake of brevity and your boredom!)

A switch to Gavin Patrick Cromwell's yard at the end of February seems to have re-ignited a spark in this 9 yr old mare, as she has 4 wins and 2 places from 9 runs since, including winning two of her three efforts over fences, the most recent being a win in another Class 4 Novice handicap Chase at Sedgefield 11 days ago under today's jockey Brian Hughes.

Mr Cromwell's runners are 3 from 15 (20% SR) over the last 7 days, whilst since the start of 2015, they are 4 from 14 (28.6% SR) for 15.92pts (+113.7% ROI) profit here at Perth. Admittedly a small sample size, but interestingly regarding today's pick/race...

  • handicappers are 3/9 (33.3%) for 13.27pts (+147.4%)
  • Class 4 runners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 15.27pts (+218.1%)
  • at 3m/3m½f : 3/6 (50%) for 17.27pts (+345.3%)
  • chasers are 2/5 (40%) for 5.34pts (+106.8%)
  • and those racing after a short break of 11-20 days are 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.34pts (+244.7%)

Not numbers to hang your hat on, but surely more than coincidental?

Gavin does seem to fare better with his chasers than the rest of his string and again since the start of 2015, his record over fences stands at 20 winners from 116 (17.2% SR) for 39.7pts (+34.2% ROI) profit if backed blindly, with handicappers winning 20 of 89 (22.5%) for 66.7pts (74.9%). Not that we'd necessarily advocate blindly following anyone, but the following filters applied tot hose 89 Handicap chasers look both useful and profitable...

  • those who raced within the previous 45 days are 16/72 (22.2%) for 59.7pts (+82.9%)
  • at trips of 3m to 3m5½f : 10/42 (23.8%) for 58.8pts (+140.1%)
  • in the UK : 8/23 (34.8%) for 28.3pts (+123.1%)
  • 9 yr olds are 4/11 (36.4%) for 13.5pts (+122.6%)
  • in UK Class 4 contests : 3/9 (33.3%) for 4.01pts (+44.6%)
  • and here at Sedgefield : 1/1 for 1.67pts.

And for the last piece of data I'm sharing today, I'll move away from trainer specifics and look at a more general picture. Since the start of 2014 in UK Class 4 Handicap Chases, those runners priced at 6/4 to 7/1 racing 6 to 15 days after winning a Novice Chase last time out are 27 from 82 (32.9% SR) for 28.8pts (+35.1% ROI) and these include...

  • those who ran (and won) in a Novice Handicap LTO are 27/79 (34.2%) for 31.8pts (+40.2%)
  • those now running in a Novice Handicap are 14/38 (36.8%) for 19.9pts (+52.4%)
  • those whose last run and current run were both Novice Hcp Chases are 14/36 (38.9%) for 21.9pts (+60.9%)
  • those racing over trips of 3m/3m½f are 8/18 (44.4%) for 20.3pts (+112.6%)
  • and those who ran (and won) in a Novice Handicap LTO and are now running in a Novice Handicap over a trip of 3m/3m½f are 4/8 (50%) for 15.6pts (+194.7%)

I could go on, but I'll leave you to take a look at the racecard for yourself, where you'll see that jockey Brian Hughes is in good form (14 & 30 icons) and that he has a good strike rate at this track recently (C1 icon) and so on...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Running In Heels @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by half a dozen firms as of 5.45pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Perth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th February 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.50 Haydock : The Worlds End @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 Mid-division, went 3rd before 6 out, led 3 out, kept on well from last to win comfortably by 9 lengths.

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.30 Carlisle

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Theatre Act 5/1 BOG

Why?

Today's pick is trained by Chris Grant and is due to be ridden by Brian Hughes and both have done well here at Carlisle in the past. Chris' horses were 4/11 (36.4% SR) for 61.7pts (+560.8% ROI) here last year and although the profit/loss figure is clearly skewed by a big-priced winner, the numbers still look good, as they include the following...

  • at Class 4 : 4/10 (40%) for 62.7pts (+627%)
  • over hurdles : 4/8 (50%) for 64.7pts (+808.6%)
  • at 2m1f : 3/6 (50%) for 59.6pts (+993.4%)
  • at 11/10 to 6/1 odds : 3/3 (100%) for 10.56pts (+355.3%)
  • on Good to Soft : 2/3 (66.6%) for 58.2pts (+1939.5%)
  • and ridden by Brian Hughes : 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.5pts (+283.3%)

Once again, the big-priced winner caveat applies to the above.

Today's jockey, Brian Hughes is enjoying another of those purple patches he seems to have on a regualr basis, winning 7 of his 25 rides last week and he too had a great year at Carlisle in 2016, winning 14 of 44 (31.8% SR) for 30.2pts (+68.6% ROI) and aside from his 2 winners from 3 rides for Chris Grant, those 44 runners could be broken down as follows...

  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 12/27 (44.4%) for 22.9pts (+84.7%)
  • in handicaps : 7/24 (29.2%) for 24.2pts (+100.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 9/22 (40.9%) for 25.4pts (+115.5%)
  • over hurdles : 5/17 (29.4%) for 6.95pts (+40.9%)
  • on Good to Soft : 5/16 (31.25%) for 20.3pts (+126.9%)
  • and at 2m/2m1f : 6/14 (42.9%) for 7.2pts (+51.4%)

As for the horse, Theatre Act, she has finished 11551 in her last five outings winning on her last two visits here at Carlisle and also winning at Sedgefield LTO 22 days ago. She looks well suited to the task ahead, as her hurdles record includes...

  • 3 wins from 8 in fields of 10-12 runners, 3/6 under Brian Hughes, 3/5 in cheekpieces,
  • 2/5 after 18-23 days rest, 2/3 at Carlisle, 1/2 over course and distance, 1/2 on good to soft.

And, in addition to all the above data...Since the start of 2012, class 3 to 5 handicap hurdlers with CD next to their name on the racecard and were also winners (anywhere) LTO 11 to 30 days ago are 93/373 (24.9% SR) for 201.8pts (+54.1% ROI), from which...

  • those running 16-25 days since last seen are 47/173 (27.2%) for 134.5pts (+77.7%)
  • those running on good to soft are 18/65 (27.7%) for 68.4pts (+105.2%)
  • and those running on good to soft 16-25 days since last seen are 10/33 (30.3%) for 59.4pts (+180%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Theatre Act @ 5/1 BOG which was available with both Bet365 and BetVictor at 9.55pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 16th February 2017

Wednesday's Result :

7.20 Kempton : Peaceful Passage @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/8 Never far away in 5th, smooth headway into 2nd over 2f out, switched right 2f out, pushed into lead over 1f out, clear when edged left inside final furlong, ran on well to win by 3.25 lengths

Thursday's pick goes in the...

1.55 Kelso :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Spanish Fleet @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

A pretty simple one this time with a 9 yr old gelding in good form, knocking on the door with three successive runner-up finishes. Ran here at Kelso over 1f shorter LTO 32 days ago on heavy ground at a higher grade and was staying on well, so I'm confident the extra furlong allied to a drop in class will finally get him back over the line.

He's trained by George Bewley, whose chasers are 17/89 (19.1% SR) for 20.2pts (+22.7% ROI) since the start of 2014, with all 17 winners coming from 84 (20.2% SR) handicap contests for profits of 25.2pts at an ROI of 30%.

And, of those 84 handicappers...

  • males are 17/78 (21.8%) for 31.2pts (+40%)
  • those who ran in the last 90 days are 15/71 (21.1%) for 27.4pts (+38.6%)
  • those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 15/57 (26.3%) for 26.5pts (+46.5%)
  • on soft/heavy ground : 5/25 (20%) for 7.17pts (+28.7%)
  • those dropping down a grade are 6/20 (30%) for 21.5pts (+107.5%)
  • those ridden by Brian Hughes are 4/14 (28.6%) for 2.6pts (+18.6%)
  • and those up in trip by 1/1.5 furlongs are 5/9 (55/6%) for 22.4pts (+248.7%)

AND...males priced at 8/1 and shorter within 90 days of their last run are 13/46 (28.3% SR) for 26.7pts (+58% ROI)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Spanish Fleet @ 10/3 BOG which was widely available at 5.55pm on Wednesday, whilst those lucky/quick enough to get on with Betbright can/could get 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Kelso

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 14th February 2017

Monday's Result :

2.50 Wolverhampton : Haraka @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 9/4 Tracked leaders, carried wide over 2f out, every chance over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Casual Cavalier @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

We've got a 9 yr old gelding with a 3 from 6 record over fences (1311 in his last four outings) and under today's conditions, his chase record looks very good...

  • 3/6 plus a place under Brian Hughes, 3/5 at trips of 1m7.5f to 2m1f,  2/5 plus a place at Class 4
  • 3 wins and a place from 4 since moving to George Bewley's yard, 2/4 plus a place on soft ground
  • 2/3 in fields of 1-7 runners, 2/3 in cheekpieces, 2/2 16-30 days after his last run
  • 2 from 2 this year so far and he's 1/1 here at Ayr

On top of all that, trainer George Bewley is 22 from 111 (19.8% SR) for 40.5pts (+36.5% ROI) in handicap chases since 2009, including...

  • males : 22/105 (21%) for 46.5pts (+44.3%)
  • at Class 4 : 12/59 (20.3%) for 19.4pts (+32.9%)
  • at 6-25 dslr : 14/57 (24.6%) for 40.2pts (+70.6%)
  • at trips shorter than 2m5f : 12/43 (27.9%) for 46.3pts (+107.7%)
  • 9 yr olds are 7/27 (25.9%) for 23.4pts (+86.6%)
  • on Soft ground : 6/27 (22.2%) for 12.9pts (+47.9%)
  • LTO winners are 6/20 (30%) for 4.08pts (+20.4%)
  • and those ridden by Brian Hughes are 4/14 (28.6%) for 2.6pts (+18.6%)

AND...in addition to the above...Since 2012 in handicap chases, males aged 7 to 9 yrs old rated 95 to 125 and priced at 10/1 and shorter, 4 to 25 days after winning a novice chase last time out are 56/201 (27.9% SR)for 77.6pts (+38.6% ROI), from which...

  • on soft ground : 16/56 (28.6%) for 19.1pts (+34.2%)
  • over trips of 2m-2m1f : 15/40 (37.5%) for 16.8pts (+42%)
  • and on soft ground over trips of 2m-2m1f : 5/10 (50%) for 9.29pts (+92.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Casual Cavalier @ 3/1 BOG which was available with Bet365 and SkyBet at 6.10pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 24th January 2017

Monday's Result :

4.20 Bangor : Only A Tipple @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 9/2 Held up off the pace in 5th, closer approaching 4th, left in close 2nd bypassing 3 out, led 2 out, ridden and headed before the last, no chance with winner, just held on for 2nd.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

4.00 Wetherby

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Robbing The Prey @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

A 6yr old with some decent, recent experience under his belt and has shown some aptitude for cut in the ground and a marked improvement in performance levels since switching to Malcolm Jefferson's yard and also for having Brian Hughes put on his back.

The Jefferson string are 16/101 (15.8% SR) for 55.1pts (+54.6% ROI) here at Wetherby over the last six years and although that's not a huge sample size, today's race conditions throw up some interesting/profitable angles, such as...

  • males are 15/83 (18.1%) for 67.8pts (+81.7%)
  • 5-8 yr olds are 13/71 (18.3%) for 20.4pts (+28.7%)
  • Class 3/4 runners are 13/67 (19.4%) for 23.8pts (+35.5%)
  • those ridden by Brian Hughes are 12/67 (17.9%) for 16.4pts (+24.4%)
  • in novice races : 6/31 (19.4%) for 11.8pts (+38%)
  • and those finishing 2nd or 3rd last time out = 7/23 (30.4%) for 23.5pts (+102.1%)

AND...from the above : 5 to 8 yr old males in Class 3/4 Novice races ridden by Brian Hughes are 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 22.5pts (+132.3% ROI) profit!

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Robbing The Prey @ 7/2 BOG which was offered by Betbright, Betfair, Betfred, Paddy Power and Totesport at 5.25pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Wetherby 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard