Tag Archives: Beverley racecourse

Stat of the Day, 14th August 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

8.00 Lingfield : Fancy Flyer @ 5/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Made all, switched left over 6f out, driven over 1f out, stayed on well to win by 3.5 lengths)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Archie Perkins @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good ground worth £7,719 to the winner...

Why?...

Because he's an in-form (11331 in his last five runs) 4 yr old gelding who would appear to have conditions to suit him returning to Beverley, some 33 days after winning a better race than this under today's jockey at York last time out, plus there are a couple of strings to his trainer's bow that appeal here too.

So, let's start with the horse himself. His career tally currently stands at 6 wins and 6 places from 23 outings to date and this 6+6/23 record includes of relevance today...

  • 6+5/13 at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 5+5/10 on the Flat
  • 3+2/6 this year
  • 3+2/5 over this 1m2f trip
  • 3+2/5 under jockey Scott Rowan
  • 3+1/7 here at Beverley
  • 2+2/4 at Class 4
  • 2+1/5 in August
  • and 2+1/3 over this course and distance

His success here at Beverley, especially over today's trip is no surprise, however, when you consider that over the past two seasons here, trainer Nigel Tinkler's handicappers sent off at odds of 7/1 and shorter have won 12 of 22 (54.6% SR) for profits of 36.9pts at a very attractive ROI of 167.7%, from which...

  • males are 10/15 (66.6%) for 35.07pts (+233.8%)
  • over this 1m2f C&D : 6/11 (54.6%) for 22.05pts (+200.4%)
  • LTO winners are 5/9 (55.6%) for 7.56pts (+84%)
  • 4 yr olds are 5/8 (62.5%) for 13.26pts (+165.8%)
  • those ridden by Scott Rowan are 2/4 (50%) for 11.16pts (+278.9%)
  • in August : 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.62pts (+120.6%)
  • and on Good ground : 2/2 (100%) for 9.97pts (+498.5%)

And with LTO winners going well here in the last two seasons, it's worth noting that this success isn't limited to this particular track, as over that same time frame, Nigel's LTO winners are 18/63 (28.6% SR) for 55pts (+87.3% ROI) in Flat handicaps, including the following angles in play today...

  • 17/56 (30.4%) for 42pts (+75%) at 6-45 days after their last run
  • 14/45 (31.1%) for 39.27pts (+87.3%) from male runners
  • 14/27 (51.9%) for 25.24pts (+93.5%) at odds shorter than 9/2
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 18.57pts (+97.7%) at Class 4
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 19.42pts (+138.7%) from 4 yr olds
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 14.85pts (+106%) with Scott Rowan in the saddle
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 5.56pts (+50.6%) here at Beverley
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.58pts (+296.2%) in August
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 14.53pts (+181.6%) over 9/10 furlongs

...from which males sent off at 4/1 and shorter some 6-45 days after their LTO win are 11/20 (55% SR) for 20.57pts (+102.85% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Archie Perkins @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.35pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th July 2019

Monday's pick was...

8.30 Windsor : Hats Off To Larry @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Chased leading pair, 2nd on inside 3f out, led over 2f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, stayed on same pace

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Thorntoun Care @ 9/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

Keeping it very simple today with an 8 yr old gelding who'll hope fully find conditions suit him, as of his 5 Flat wins to date...

  • all 5 were at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 4 came when wearing cheekpieces
  • 4 in June/July
  • 3 on Good to Firm
  • 3 at Class 6
  • and 3 after a short break of 8-15 days

His trainer, Karen Tutty has a decent record here of late with 6 winners from 36 (16.6% SR) in handicaps over the last three seasons generating 42.4pts at an ROI of some 117.7%, from which...

  • after less than 3 weeks rest : 6/26 (23.1%) for 52.4pts (+201.5%)
  • males : 5/29 (17.2%) for 44.2pts (+152.5%)
  • on Good to firm : 4/19 (21.1%) for 32.4pts (+170.5%)
  • in July : 3/10 (30%) for 11.13pts (+111.3%)
  • and at 7/1 or shorter : 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.13pts (+134.7%)

...with males turned back out less than 3 weeks after their last run winning 5 of 23 (21.7% SR) for 50.2pts (+218.4% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Thorntoun Care @ 9/2 BOG as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.30pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th June 2019

Friday's pick was...

7.25 Haydock : Tricky Dicky @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Prominent, ridden 2f out, kept on one pace final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Archie Perkins @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £5608 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding has 3 wins and 3 further places from 8 runs since stepping up in trip to 10/10.5 furlongs last July, including a win over today's trip LTO 12 days ago at relatively nearby (70 miles away) Redcar taking his career record to 4 wins from 19, of which the following are relevant today...

  • 4 from 9 at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 3 from 4 as favourite
  • 3 from 7 after 1 to 2 weeks rest
  • 3 from 12 in Yorkshire
  • 2 from 4 over this 1m2f trip
  • 2 from 5 here at Beverley
  • 2 from 5 going right handed
  • 2 from 8 on Good to Firm
  • 1 from 2 under today's jockey Scott Rowan
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance.

His trainer, Nigel Tinkler's LTO winners are 12/60 (20% SR) for 18.9pts (+31.5% ROI) over the last two years, including 12 winners from 50 (24%) for 28.9pts (+57.8%) on the Flat, and from these 50 on the Flat...

  • 2-4 yr olds are 12/39 (30.8%) for 39.9pts (+102.3%)
  • at odds of 7/2 and shorter : 9/17 (52.9%) for 16.05pts (+94.4%)
  • at 6-15 days since last run : 8/17 (47.1%) for 30.97pts (+182.2%)
  • and on Good to Firm : 5/24 (20.8%) for 12.3pts (+51.1%)

...whilst 2-4 yr olds at 7/2 and shorter, 6-15 days after their LTO win are 6 from 7 (85.7% SR) for 15.14pts (+216.3%) with a 2 from 2 (100%) record on Good to Firm producing 5.75pts at an ROI of 287.4%.

And finally, a quick look a the yard's record with handicap class droppers, as such runners are 31/191 (16.2% SR) for 59.3pts (+31% ROI) since the start of 2015, including...

  • males at 23/143 (16.1%) for 58.5pts (+40.9%)
  • on Good to Firm : 12/80 (15%) for 49.3pts (+61.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 9/34 (26.5%) for 55.6pts (+163.6%)
  • and in June : 7/26 (26.9%) for 34.7pts (+133.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Archie Perkins @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.15pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th April 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

7.15 Wolverhampton : Corinthia Knight @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/2 (Soon pressing leader, led over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, ran on to win by 1.25 lengths)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.10 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Elixsoft @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m½f on Good To Firm worth £4285 to the winner... 

Why?...

Here we have a 4 yr old filly in good recent form, having finished 2122 in her last four runs (in mixed company) and she seems to have a good relationship with today's jockey Ben Curtis, as the pair have 3 wins and 2 places from 6 outings together.

This jockey/horse success isn't as surprising when you see that Ben has actually ridden 14 winners from 57 (24.6% SR) for trainer Roger Fell over the last 18 months, generating level stakes profits of some 71.2pts at an ROI of 124.9% and this include of note/relevance today...

  • 14 from 45 (31.1%) for 83.2pts (+184.8%) on those returning from a break of 4-60 days
  • 13 from 49 (26.5%) for 76.3pts (+155.7%) in handicaps
  • 10 from 23 (43.5%) for 17.4pts (+75.8%) from those sent off at 5/1 and shorter
  • 7 from 14 (50%) for 44.3pts (+316.3%) on 4 yr olds
  • 5 from 24 (20.8%) for 26.8pts (+111.6%) at Class 5
  • and 4 from 10 (40%) for 36.85pts (+368.5%) on female runners

...whilst from the above... Curtis + Fell + handicappers at 5/1 & shorter after a break of 4-45 days = 9/17 (52.9% SR) for 20.6pts (+120.9%) and these include from above...

  • 4 yr olds @ 5/6 (83.3%) for 14.7pts (+245.2%)
  • females @ 3/5 (60%) for 8.75pts (+175%)
  • and Class 5 @ 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.8pts (+82.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Elixsoft @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by at least half a dozen firms at 7.05pm on Tuesday (2.05pm here). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

5.10 Newmarket : Rogue @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed narrowly inside final furlong, ran on but beaten by a head)

Monday's pick goes in the...

7.00 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Desert Ace 9/2 BOG

In a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good To Firm ground worth £4033 to the winner...

Why?

OK, so I'm running late, so some of this might look a bit more like note form than usual, but trust me the usual amount of research has been done!

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding whose last 5 runs contain 2 visits to Beverley for a crack at this course and distance resulting in two wins. He won a Class 5 contest (similar to today) in mid-May before striking again here last time out 16 days ago.

That, however was at a higher grade than today and the jockey from LTO, Kevin Stott, retains the ride which is a positiver as he's 13 from 78 (16.7% SR) for 23.1pts (+29.6% ROI) here at Beverley over the last six (incl this one) seasons, with a 12 from 60 record (20%) for 37.6pts (+62.6%) at 5 to 8.5 furlongs.

Then we come to trainer Paul Midgley and his ability to get his Flat handicappers to win back to back races, as since the start of the 2011 season his LTO winners are 28/186 (15.1% SR) for 136pts (+73.5%) in Flat handicaps, from which...

  • 5 to 6.5 f = 24/150 (16%) for 112.1pts (+75.2%)
  • 4-20 days since run = 21/109 (19.3%) for 149.2pts (+138.1%)
  • and at 5 to 6.5f, 4-20 dslr = 17*91 (18.7%) for 107.3pts (+119.2%)

And Paul is one of my go-to trainers for a micro I simply named "Late Summer Cappers", basically in Paul's case I look for his Class 4/5 Flat handicappers running in July-September. Since the start of July 2014, such runners are 34/200 (17% SR) for 91.9pts (+45.95% ROI), including...

  • over 5/6f : 34/189 (18%) for 102.9pts (+54.4%)
  • 11-25 dslr : 23/111 (20.7%) for 101.8pts (+91.7%)
  • on Good to Firm : 10/68 (14.7%) for 37.9pts (+55.7%)
  • LTO winners : 6/27 (22.2%) for 26.8pts (+99.3%)
  • 7 yr olds = 6/21 (28.6%) for 66.6pts (+317%)
  • and at Beverley : 4/15 (26.7%) for 37.4pts (+249.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Desert Ace 9/2 BOGa price available from Bet365 & SkyBet at 5.50pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th June 2018

Friday's Pick was...

6.30 Goodwood : Oeil De Tigre @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/4 (Pulled hard in touch, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, soon hung badly right but ran on well to win by 3.5 lengths)

We continue with Saturday's...

3.15 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

No Lippy @ 11/4 BOG 

A 13-runner, Fillies Conditions Stakes for 2yo over 5f on Good ground worth £21788 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, as per the summary at the foot of our racecard, the last 17 runnings of this contest have been won by 11 LTO winners and 3 debutants and with just 3 LTO winners and no debutants today, I was drawn to this filly, who has previously run well enough in better company.

Her form to date reads 1191 with the "9" not being as bad as a 9 normally looks, it was actually a 3 length defeat in a Listed contest on the quickest ground she's encountered to date, so no disgrace there.

Otherwise she's 3/4 at 5 furlongs, 2/3 with today's jockey (PJ McDonald who won for us on Thursday with Quantatmental), 2/2 at Class 2 and 2/2 on good ground.

It pays to be up with the pace over 5f at Beverley and she's one of just two who like to lead here and although it's generally perceived that a high draw (she's in 12) isn't great here, the data on our Pace/Draw analysis says otherwise and she'll also be helped by the other pace angle being next to her in 11.

And the stats behind the pick?

Well, I ignored the obvious/easy route of telling you to back Mark Johnston runners at Beverley, as much has already been made of this both in this column and elsewhere and whilst it is of course valid, we do like to find you something different for SotD.

So, yes it is a Mark Johnston runner at Beverley, but did you know that since the start of 2014, his runners who won LTO 1-25 days earlier at the same class & distance are 28 from 98 (28.3% SR) for 57.4pts (+58% ROI)?

And of those 98...

  • those who won by just a neck to 2 lengths LTO are 17/63 (27%) for 67.6pts (+107%)
  • at Class 2 : 6/31 (19.4%) for 52.7pts (+170%)
  • on good ground : 4/13 (30.8%) for 48.5pts (+373%)

...and Class 2 runners who won by just a neck to 2 lengths LTO are 6 from 24 (25% SR) for 59.7pts (+248.7% ROI), with a 2/5 (40%) record on good ground yielding 53.67pts at an ROI of 1053.4%. This allied to MJ's well-documented Beverley record...

...gives us...a 1pt win bet on No Lippy @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Ladbrokes & Paddy Power at 5.55pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

2.55 Wolverhampton : Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG 10th at 9/4 (Held up mid-division, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

We continue with Tuesday's...

4.10 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Alejandro @ 7/2 BOG

A 12-runner, Class 4,  1m½f  Flat Handicap (4yo+) on good ground worth £6553 to the winner... 

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding returned from a 12 week break to run well in third place staying on late over 7f at Chester 6 days ago and is taken to fare even better for (a) having had a run, (b) upped in trip and (c) returning to Beverley where his form reads 121 including a 1 from 1 record over course and distance.

His trainer David Loughnane is 9 from 34 (26.5% SR) for 86.7pts (+255% ROI) here at Beverley, including...

  • 8/25 (32%) for 60.1pts (+240.6%) in handicaps
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 22.6pts over this 8.5f course and distance
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 14.6pts (+243.4%) at Class 4
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 32.8pts (+1093.3%) with Ben Curtis in the saddle.

Ben, himself, seems to enjoy coming here as he's won 17 of his 80 (21.3% SR) rides here since the start of 2016 generating profits of 39.5pts (+49.3% ROI) for those backing him blindly with 3 winners from 6 950%) for 40pts (+666.6%) this year alone.

...and that's how I got to...a 1pt win bet on Alejandro @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair, Coral and Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th August 2017

Tuesday's Result :

8.10 Chelmsford - Golden Goal @ 5/2 BOG - 6th at 9/4 : Held up mid-division, ridden over 1f out, soon switched right, kept on same pace...

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

5.15 Beverley

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Regal Mirage @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Having shown very little in 3 maidens at 7f/1m, the step up to handicap racing over longer trips seems to have worked its magic (or perhaps that was the plan all along?).

Either way, this 3 yr old gelding has now finished 31111 in five handicap starts, all at 9f and beyond and whilst it might well look an easy/lazy pick, I do believe he's got every chance based on his suitability to the task ahead.

In handicaps, he has 4 wins and a place from 5 starts, all at 1m1f and beyond and all in fields of 8-14 runners, and based on what faces him here, he is...

  • 4/4 after a break of less than 30 days
  • 3/4 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 3/3 when priced at 4/1 or shorter
  • 2/3 when ridden by David Allan
  • 2/2 at 1m3f/1m4f
  • 2/2 at Class 5
  • 2/2 on Good ground
  • 2/2 going right handed
  • and 2/2 when sent off as favourite

...enough to justify... a 1pt win bet on Regal Mirage @ 11/4 BOG which was available with Bet365, BetVictor and Betway at 6.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th July 2017

Saturday's Result :

1.50 Newbury : Remarkable @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 Held up in touch, pushed along and headway chasing leaders 3f out, went 2nd inside final 2f, ridden and every chance throughout final furlong, soon edged right, no extra close home, beaten by a neck.

Monday's pick goes in the...

7.55 Beverley...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Navarone @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Well, simply Trainer/Jockey/Track combo when the money is down which numerically looks like... Richard Fahey / Tony Hamilton / Beverley / 11-10 to 11-2 / 2014-17 = 16/41 (39% SR) for 29.06pts (+70.9% ROI).

And with this race in mind, those 41 runners include...

  • 1-30 days since last run : 9/22 (40.9%) for 18.6pts (+84.6%)
  • males are 8/21 (38.1%) for 17.65pts (+84%)
  • handicappers are 8/17 (47.1%) for 20.52pts (+120.7%)
  • over this 7.5f trip : 8/15 (533%) for 17.6pts (+117.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 6/15 (40%) for 11.32pts (+75.5%)
  • in 3yo+ races : 3/8 937.5%) for 6.35pts (+79.4%)
  • and at Class 4 : 2/4 (50%) for 7.87pts (+196.8%)

They now team up with a 3 yr old gelding getting a nice 7lbs weight for age allowance as a 3yr old in an open age handicap, who is already 1 from 1 over course and distance, having won here two starts ago. He stepped up in class and dropped in trip for his latest run and was outpaced late on, finishing as a runner-up beaten by half a length.

The fourth placed horse that day was a further 2.25lengths behind, but has subsequently reappeared and won, so if the form holds out, I expect another good effort from our boy, who now steps back up to this trip and drops down a grade, making him of further statistical interest to me, because...

...2012-17 / Flat / class 1 to 4 / 5.5 to 8 furlongs / 3yr olds / winner 2 starts ago / 2nd LTO 1-30 days ago = 79/319 (24.8% SR) for 180.8pts (+56.7% ROI) with those dropping down 1 class winning 14 of 35 (40%) for 29.2pts (+83.4%)

...thus quantifying...a 1pt win bet on Navarone @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.50pm on Sunday with some 4/1 BOG on offer at Coral for those who are able to take advantage! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.55 Beverley...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th July 2017

Monday's Result :

5.00 Ayr : Donnachies Girl @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 10/3 Led narrowly, edged right over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, headed when carried left inside final furlong, kept on, no extra towards finish.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

5.15 Beverley...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Clenymistra @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly steps back up to 1m2f here, a trip she has only run at twice before, finishing 2nd on the A/W at Chelmsford last October and then winning on Good to Firm (like today) at Redcar on her return from a 214 day break from racing.

That win at Redcar was also the only previous time she'd been ridden by today's jockey, Danny Tudhope. So we've got positives re: trip, going and jockey, what about her trainer?

Well, if Danny Tudhope's riding, you won't be overly surprised to find she's trained by David O'Meara, who has an excellent record in handicap contests here at Beverley, standing at 39 winners from 204 (19.1% SR) for profits of 39.2pts (+19.2% ROI)...

And with today's contest in mind, those 204 runners include...

  • since 2013 : 33/158 (20.9%) for 68.74pts at an ROI of 43.5%
  • those priced at 9/1 and shorter : 37/155 (23.9%) for 50.82pts (+32.8%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 23/120 (19.2%) for 20.86pts (+17.4%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 18/84 (21.4%) for 10.67pts (+12.7%)
  • those last seen 6 to 10 days ago : 15/44 (34.1%) for 25.87pts (+58.8%)
  • over the 1m2f course and distance : 8/43 (18.6%) for 14.59pts (+33.9%)

AND...since 2013 at odds of 9/1 and shorter on Good/Good to Firm : 26/112 (23.2% SR) for 50.34pts (+45% ROI), from which...

  • Danny Tudhope is 13/52 (25%) for 15.81pts (+30.4%)
  • those who last ran 6-10 days earlier are 10/25 (40%) for 30.24pts (+121%)
  • over this 1m2f trip : 4/21 (19.1%) for 3.84pts (+18.3%)

...quantifying...a 1pt win bet on Clenymistra @ 9/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Beverley...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!