Tag Archives: Ben Curtis

Stat of the Day, 17th April 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

7.15 Wolverhampton : Corinthia Knight @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/2 (Soon pressing leader, led over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, ran on to win by 1.25 lengths)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.10 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Elixsoft @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m½f on Good To Firm worth £4285 to the winner... 

Why?...

Here we have a 4 yr old filly in good recent form, having finished 2122 in her last four runs (in mixed company) and she seems to have a good relationship with today's jockey Ben Curtis, as the pair have 3 wins and 2 places from 6 outings together.

This jockey/horse success isn't as surprising when you see that Ben has actually ridden 14 winners from 57 (24.6% SR) for trainer Roger Fell over the last 18 months, generating level stakes profits of some 71.2pts at an ROI of 124.9% and this include of note/relevance today...

  • 14 from 45 (31.1%) for 83.2pts (+184.8%) on those returning from a break of 4-60 days
  • 13 from 49 (26.5%) for 76.3pts (+155.7%) in handicaps
  • 10 from 23 (43.5%) for 17.4pts (+75.8%) from those sent off at 5/1 and shorter
  • 7 from 14 (50%) for 44.3pts (+316.3%) on 4 yr olds
  • 5 from 24 (20.8%) for 26.8pts (+111.6%) at Class 5
  • and 4 from 10 (40%) for 36.85pts (+368.5%) on female runners

...whilst from the above... Curtis + Fell + handicappers at 5/1 & shorter after a break of 4-45 days = 9/17 (52.9% SR) for 20.6pts (+120.9%) and these include from above...

  • 4 yr olds @ 5/6 (83.3%) for 14.7pts (+245.2%)
  • females @ 3/5 (60%) for 8.75pts (+175%)
  • and Class 5 @ 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.8pts (+82.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Elixsoft @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by at least half a dozen firms at 7.05pm on Tuesday (2.05pm here). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 26th February 2019

Monday's Pick was...

3.55 Ayr : Casual Cavalier @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 10/3 (Tracked leader, led 4 out, strongly challenged 2 out, headed final 50 yards, no extra)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Debbonair 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo, A/W Handicap over 1m4f on Tapeta, worth £2911 to the winner...

Why?

A 3 yr old gelding in decent enough form on the A/W this winter finishing 132, all on Polytrack and always looking like he needs further. Well, he steps up another 2f tonight for his Tapeta/Wolverhampton debut and I'd expect him to go well again.

Ben Curtis is in the saddle tonight and although this is his first ever ride here at Wolverhampton on a Hugo Palmer-trained horse, he did ride 12 winners from 32 (37.5% SR) for the trainer last year with a £10 bet on each runner yielding £197 profit at an ROI of 61.5%, including 10 wins from 18 (55.6%) for 11.21pts (+62.3%) at Class 5 and 2 from 8 (25%) for 2.06pts (+25.7%) on the A/W.

Hugo Palmer's own record here at Dunstall Park is good with 31 winners from 117 (26.9% SR) for 73.2pts (+62.6% ROI) profit since 2012 and these include of relevance today...

  • on Tapeta : 28/104 (26.9%) for 38.5pts (+37%)
  • Wolves debutants : 23/85 (27.1%) for 55.3pts (+65%)
  • Class 5 : 21/73 (28.8%) for 64.1pts (+87.9%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 22/72 (30.6%) for 69.6pts (+96.7%)
  • Tapeta debutants : 21/72 (29.2%) for 56.5pts (+78.5%)
  • males : 19/56 (33.9%) for 23.4pts (+41.8%)
  • in handicaps : 13/50 (26%) for 50.9pts (+101.8%)
  • 2nd to 5th LTO : 19/49 (38.9%) for 79.7pts (+162.6%)
  • up in trip : 11/43 (25.6%) for 39.6pts (+92.1%)
  • and in February : 4/7 (57.1%) for 2.59pts (+36.9%)

...whilst more generally, Hugo's runners stepping up in trip are 106/578 (18.3% SR) for 378.5pts (+65.5% ROI), which is an angle worth keeping an eye on, as is the fact that in UK A/W contests, his runners with at least 1 career run to their name, now tackling a particular A/W surface for the first time are 62/230 (27% SR) for 112.2pts (+48.8% ROI), including...

  • Tapeta debuts : 28/86 (32.6%) for 55.8pts (+64.9%)
  • in handicaps : 21/80 (26.3%) for 69.3pts (+86.6%)
  • and here at Wolverhampton : 19/56 (33.9%) for 65.6pts (+117.2%)

...from which...tapeta debutants in Wolverhampton handicaps are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 15.79pts (+83.1% ROI), with 5 winners from 14 (35.7%) for 9.93pts (+70.9%) since the start of 2017...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Debbonair 10/3 BOG which was available from BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.00pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

2.55 Wolverhampton : Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG 10th at 9/4 (Held up mid-division, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

We continue with Tuesday's...

4.10 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Alejandro @ 7/2 BOG

A 12-runner, Class 4,  1m½f  Flat Handicap (4yo+) on good ground worth £6553 to the winner... 

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding returned from a 12 week break to run well in third place staying on late over 7f at Chester 6 days ago and is taken to fare even better for (a) having had a run, (b) upped in trip and (c) returning to Beverley where his form reads 121 including a 1 from 1 record over course and distance.

His trainer David Loughnane is 9 from 34 (26.5% SR) for 86.7pts (+255% ROI) here at Beverley, including...

  • 8/25 (32%) for 60.1pts (+240.6%) in handicaps
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 22.6pts over this 8.5f course and distance
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 14.6pts (+243.4%) at Class 4
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 32.8pts (+1093.3%) with Ben Curtis in the saddle.

Ben, himself, seems to enjoy coming here as he's won 17 of his 80 (21.3% SR) rides here since the start of 2016 generating profits of 39.5pts (+49.3% ROI) for those backing him blindly with 3 winners from 6 950%) for 40pts (+666.6%) this year alone.

...and that's how I got to...a 1pt win bet on Alejandro @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair, Coral and Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th April 2017

Monday's Result :

2.20 Huntingdon : Hint of Grey @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 Keen tracked leader, led soon after 3rd, clear 4th, reduced lead 3 out, ridden next, headed flat and beaten by 2 lengths.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.55 Southwell...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Custard The Dragon2/1 BOG

Why?

A 4yr old gelding who has been in great form over the last 5 months, finishing 21131421 and his win over this course and distance last time out a fortnight ago took his career record to 5 from 15 on the all-weather (more on that shortly) and although he's up 3lbs for that win, he actually drops in class here today and should have too much for his rivals.

April has tended to be a good month for his trainer John Mackie in recent years with 11 winners from 70 in the last five (including this one) Aprils. That 15.7% strike rate has been good enough to generate level stakes profits of 47.6pts at an ROI of 68%, including...

  • handicaps : 10/63 (15.9%) for 36.2pts (+57.4%)
  • males : 9/50 (18%) for 48.9pts (+97.8%)
  • those who ran in the past 30 days : 9/37 (24.3%) for 69.1pts (+186.8%)
  • on the A/W  : 7/26 (26.9%) for 34pts (+130.9%)
  • and 4 yr olds are 3/18 (16.7%) for 5.7pts (+31.6%)

And before I leave you, let's just quickly have a closer look at Custard The Dragon's record on the A/W. I said he's won 5 of 15 and this is the case, but more interestingly/relevant here are the facts that of those 15 races, he is...

  • 5/12 over this 7f trip
  • 5/11 going left handed
  • 4/11 since going to be trained by John Mackie
  • 4/6 running 8 to 15 days since his last run
  • 4/5 here at Southwell
  • 4/5 over course and distance
  • 3/5 when sent off as favourite
  • 2/4 in cheekpieces
  • and a win and a runner-up finish from his two starts under today's jockey Ben Curtis

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Custard The Dragon2/1 BOG which was fairly widely available at 6.25pm on Monday, but please take the 9/4 BOG from Betfair if you can. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 15th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th September 2015

You'll never guess and/or believe what happened to Duc de Seville yesterday. Actually, scrap that. Of course you know what happened. He was a non-runner, just like Saturday's pick and now the 4th in the last 8 days.

Frustrated? Moi? Pas du tout!

It's all part of what to expect at this time of year with the rapidly changing weather we endure.

Anyway, enough of the ramble/pre-amble etc, Tuesday beckons and a trip up North to Cumbria for the last race of the day aka the...

7.15 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Now, should our runner step onto the track, he'll join 11 others to tackle 1m6f on what is said to be good to firm ground for this Class 6, 3yo+ handicap and my selection from this race is the Alan Swinbank-trained, 3yr old gelding Billy Ranger, who I've just backed at 4/1 BOG with Bet365.

Since 2009, Alan has had 33 winners from 201 runners at this Cumbrian outpost with that 16.4% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 80.2pts at an ROI of 39.9% and we can break those 201 runners down as follows (with today's race in mind)...

  • handicaps : 19/117 (16.2% SR) for 70.4pts (+60.2% ROI)
  • 3yo+ races : 10/67 (14.9% SR) for 53.8pts (+80.3% ROI)
  • Class 6 : 7/39 (18% SR) for 28.9pts (+74.2% ROI)
  • 3yr olds : 6/25 (24% SR) for 20.3pts (+81.2% ROI)
  • at 1m6f  :4/9 (44.4% SR) for 13.8pts (+153.3% ROI)

Jockey Ben Curtis has also been profitable to follow here at Carlisle this season, managing to hit nine winners from thirty (30% SR) rides, producing 71.2pts (+237.3% ROI) of level stakes profits along the way.

Of those 30 rides, he is 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 60.4pts (+262.7% ROI) in handicaps and 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 45.6pts (+414.5% ROI) riding for Alan Swinbank and this gives rise to a record reading 3/10 (30% SR) for 46.6pts (+466% ROI) on the Swinbank handicappers here at Carlisle this year.

Billy Ranger was 3rd home of 8 runners last out, when beaten by 2.5 lengths at Musselburgh 11 days ago, getting outpaced over 1m4f.

Alan Swinbank's runners who finished in the first four home last time out and then run again 4 to 15 days later have gone on to win 67 times from 297 runs (22.6% SR) since the start of 2011, generating level stakes profits of 62.7pts at an ROI of 21.1% and of those 297 runners...

  • those running here at Carlisle are 6/21 (28.6% SR) for 35.4pts (+168.4% ROI
  • 3yr olds are 15/53 (28.3% SR) for 26.3pts (+49.6% ROI)
  • those beaten by a neck to 5 lengths LTO are 34/127 (26.8% SR) for 63.3pts (+49.9% ROI)

Of those 127 beaten by a neck to 5 lengths, 3/4 yr olds in Flat handicaps are 13/42 (31% SR) for 58.4pts (+139.1% ROI) with a record of 9/26 (34.6% SR) for 59.8pts (+230% ROI) in 3yo+ races.

Billy Ranger is down in grade and up in trip today and with him stepping up to this trip of 1m6f that looked more his thing last time out, he gets a healthy 11lbs weight for age allowance, which should make him very competitive for our 4/1 BOG bet. I'm with Bet365 for this one, but you should...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 25th November 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th November 2014

The 6/1 we took about Be Royale looked like pretty good value entering the final furlong, especially as she was sent off as the 11/4 favourite, but she was ultimately denied a victory by half a length. She had to overcome a poor draw and was forced out very wide on the home turn, whilst the eventual winner Malaysian Boleh was able to run right up along the rail to just edge us out.

No complaints to be had, these are the way it goes sometimes. More A/W action for Tuesday and a trip to Nottinghamshire, where I'm opposing Monday's jockey/trainer combo in the...

3.10 Southwell:

For a 9/2 BOG bet on Reach The Beach, trained by Brendan Powell and ridden today for the second time by Ben Curtis.

Southwell is a happy hunting ground for both trainer and jockey...

Brendan Powell doesn't actually send many of his horses here to Southwell, if I'm honest, but those that do come here seem to like the surface and run well here. In fact Brendan's record here is 11 winners from 36 runners (30.6% SR) which has, to date, produced 70.6pts at Betfair SP (the closest approximation I have to BOG) at an ROI of 196.2%. There's clearly a couple of larger priced winners skewing the figures a little, but even those running at 10/1 or shorter are profitable to back with 9 winners from 27 (33.33% SR) generating 29.7pts profit at a very healthy 109.9% ROI.

Ben Curtis' record here is also very good and he has ridden 13 winners from his 69 mounts here this year. This 18.8% strike rate is responsible for 62.9pts profit, a return equivalent to 91.2% of stakes. Once again, there are some bigger winners in there, but a closer look at those running in the 6/4 to 5/1 category shows 6 winners from 20 (30% SR) for 7pts (+35% ROI) profit.

Ben's record in handicaps here this year are also impressive with 9 wins from 46 (19.6% SR) for 57.7pts (+125.5% ROI), with 5 winners from the 20 (25% SR) runners sent off at odds of 6/4 to 8/1 and these runners have yielded level stakes profits of 7.2pts at an ROI of 36%.

This horse was a 25/1 C&D winner here 12 days ago...

...and is obviously much shorter in the market today. However, there is a precedent here for big priced winners to win again next time out. Since the start of 2008, horses priced between 5/2 and 9/1, running in handicaps over 5f to 1m6f at the same class or one higher than a winning run priced at 25/1 or higher last time out have one on to win 77 of 404 races (19/1% SR) and have made 136.2pts profit at an ROI of 33.7%.

Of these 404 runners, those running within 6 to 45 days of that last big-priced win have won 69 of 349 (19.8% SR) for 123.6pts (+35.4% ROI), so it wouldn't be a huge surprise for Reach The Beach to go in again today to follow up that C&D win, where she had the re-opposing Royal Marskell four lengths behind as the runner-up.

Our runner is now 6lbs higher for that win, but the manner of the victory suggested that mightn't be enough to stop her winning again here. Ben Curtis was riding her for the first time that day and they will probably both benefit for that experience and Reach The Beach is having a good run of from at around this trip since switching back from hurdling duties. In six runs, she has won twice and finished second on three occasions, giving a good account of herself in the defeats too.

She likes to get out quickly and there should be some early pace in the race to encourage her, but not only id he generally quick away, she stays on well too, so providing she's not run out of it early on, she should be in the final shake-up, giving us a great chance of a return from a 1pt win bet on Reach The Beach at 9/2 BOG. That is the price I've taken from Betfair Sportsbook and the same is available with Ladbrokes, but they are non-BOG until 9.00am on racedays. Elsewhere 4/1 BOG is the best , as you'll quickly see, if you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.10 Southwell 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.