Tag Archives: Bath racecourse

Stat of the Day, 30th September 2019

Saturday's pick was...

8.20 Chelmsford : Red Stripes @ 9/1  WON at 6/1 (Made all, ridden over 1f out, ran on gamely to win by three parts of a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Colonel Whitehead @ 4/1 non-BOG until morning

...in a 14-runner, Class 5, Flat Nursery for 2yo over 5½f on Soft ground worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

This 2yo Colt was a winner last time out when clear by two lengths over 5f in a Class 4 contest. 7lb claimer Ellie MacKenzie was riding him for the first time that day and she keeps the ride on a horse that could well look lightly treated off a mark of 71 in a contest that looks far less competitive than the volume of entrants would suggest.

When I was compiling my shortlist (as per my reply in part 2 of SQF), this horse kept cropping up in various reports, so as to not bore you all into submission, I'll briefly highlight five angles that suggest we might at least get a decent run for our hard-earned money (yes, I actually back these runners too!).

So, in order of decreasing sample size...

1. Since the start of 2015, trainer Heather Main is 20 from 113 (17.7% SR) for 115.9pts (+102.6% ROI) when her only runner of the day is a handicapper racing at a venue just 20 to 100 miles from base.

2. And since the start of 2016, Mrs Main's handicappers dropping down 1 class from LTO are 14 from 64 (21.9% SR) for 176.2pts (+275.4% ROI) and these include 8 from 32 (25%) for 75.5pts (+235.9%) from those with less than three week's rest since that higher grade outing.

3. Whilst over the last three seasons, Heather's Class 5 Flat handicappers are 11/47 (23.4% SR) for 36.6pts (+77.9% ROI), from which...

  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 14.3pts (+62.2%) at Evens to 6/1
  • 3/6 (50%) for 24.3pts (+405%) on Soft ground
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 7.45pts (+745%) at Evs to 6/1 on Soft

4. And also over the last three season's Heather's "late summer handicappers" ie Flat + July-September @ 8/1 and shorter are 9/42 (21.4% SR) for 19.9pts (+47.3% ROI), including...

  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 15.8pts (+92.8%) at Class 5
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 21.1pts (+301.8%) on Soft ground
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 16.6pts (+803%) on Soft at Class 5

5. And finally for today, jockey Ellie MacKenzie is 5 from 18 (27.8% SR) for 82.9pts (+460.6% ROI) when riding for Heather Main, including 3 wins from 10 (30%) for 57.71pts (+577.1%) on the Flat...

...all of which led me to... a 1pt win bet on Colonel Whitehead @ 4/1 non-BOG until morning as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th June 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.05 York : Sir Dancealot @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Went right start, held up in touch, under pressure 3f out, soon no impression)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Luckys Dream @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 11 (was 12) runner, Class 6 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Soft ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 4 yr old gelding arriving on a hat-trick mission after wins in this grade over 1m2f at Yarmouth 16 days ago and then over 1m2.5f at Nottingham last time out, 10 days back. These back to back successes have improved his record to a respectable 4 wins from 17, which with today's contest in mind include...

  • 4 from 13 in fields of 9-15 runners (not afraid of company!)
  • 4/10 in handicaps
  • 4/10 going left handed
  • 4/9 at Class 6
  • 4/7 over 10/10.5 furlongs
  • 4/7 at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 2/3 within a fortnight of his last run
  • and 2/3 in May/June

...whilst at 8/1 and shorter going left handed in 9-15 runner Class 6 handicaps over 1m2f-1m2.5f, he is 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 24.7pts (+494% ROI), having been a runner-up beaten by half a length in the one he didn't win!

He is trained by Ian Williams who, since the start of 2016 in UK handicaps, has 49 winers from 121 (40.5% SR) from horses sent back out 1-10 days after a top 3 finish. Blindly backing all 121 runners would have netted you £1046 profit from a £20 level stakes at an ROI of 43.2%.

If, however, you didn't want to back all such runners (and I rarely suggest you do!), then the following angles are at play today...

  • 49/103 (47.6%) for 70.3pts (+68.3%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 24/58 (41.4%) for 20.9pts (+36.1%) from LTO winners
  • 20/40 (50%) for 35.1pts (+87.9%) on the Flat
  • 15/27 (55.6%) for 33.4pts (123.5%) at Class 6
  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 24.6pts (+91.3%) from 4 yr olds
  • 11/21 (52.4%) for 11.5pts (+54.8%) from those dropping in trip by 0.5 to 1 furlong
  • 9/14 (64.3%) for 20.8pts (+148.6%) at 1m2f/1m2.5f
  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 15.83pts (+263.9%) in June
  • 3/5 (60%) for 5.08pts (101.6%) from those ridden by Adam Kirby, who himself is 20/70 (28.6%) for 44.7pts (+63.8%) here at Bath over the last five seasons
  • 2/5 (40%) for 0.62pts (+12.4%) here at Bath

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Luckys Dream @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 9.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th May 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

7.10 Southwell : The Drone @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8 (Tracked leaders, disputed lead after 8th, driven to lead after 3 out, ridden after next, idled flat, just held on by a short head)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

7.25 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Simbirsk @ 9/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding has been getting better with experience during his short (just 6 runs for 3 different trainers so far!) racing career and has finished third (beaten by 4L), 2nd (beaten by a neck) and first in his last three outings, the last two of which were his only two runs for today's trainer and also today's jockey.

The LTO win came here at Bath 9 days ago at the same class, course, distance and going as today and with the same jockey (Shane Kelly) on board, the only difference now is a 5lb rise in weight for that win, but that might not be enough to anchor him just yet and like yesterday, this horse cropped up on a few interconnecting angles I've got saved, so let's look at the data, shall we?

1. Trainer John O'Shea's handicappers running within a fortnight of a top 3 finish LTO are 27 from 106 (25.5% SR) for 29.8pts (+28.1% ROI) profit if backed blindly since the start of 2015, from which the following are particularly relevant today...

  • at trips of 1m5f and shorter : 23/92 (25%) for 31.3pts (+34%)
  • on the Flat : 16/62 (25.8%) for 23.7pts (+38.3%)
  • on the Flat at trips of 1m5f and shorter : 16/60 (26.7%) for 25.7pts (+42.9%)
  • LTO winners : 19/48 (39.6%) for 45.8pts (+95.4%)
  • LTO winners now running at 1m5f and shorter : 15/38 (39.5%) for 43.3pts (+114%)
  • LTO winners now running on the Flat : 10/24 (41.7%) for 34.6pts (+144.2%)
  • and LTO winners now running on the Flat at trips of 1m5f and shorter : 10/23 (43.5%) for 35.6pts (+154.8%)

2. Plus, since 2013, John's horses who were turned out after less than 3 weeks rest following a class & distance win LTO are 11 from 20 (55% SR) for 35.3pts (+176.4% ROI) with those running in the May-November period winning 9 of 15 (60%) for 30.9pts (+205.7%)

3. And finally for today, more generally since 2014 in UK Class 5 Flat handicaps, horses priced at 5/1 and shorter (where we'll surely be today) who won at the same class, course and distance LTO 6-15 days earlier went on to win again on 44 of 114 (38.6% SR) occasions generating 43.1pts profit at an ROI of 37.8%, from which...

  • those raised 3-10lbs for the win are 36/82 (43.9%) for 43.4pts (+52.9%)
  • and those raised 3-10lbs for the win to new mark of 65-80 are 32/62 (51.6%) for 46.5pts (+75%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Simbirsk @ 9/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.15pm on Tuesday with plenty of 5/2 non-BOG available, whilst Bet365 were as big as 11/4 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.25 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th April 2019

Thursday's pick was...

4.35 Ripon : Alkaamel @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Tracked leaders, pushed along to chase winner over 1f out, stayed on towards finish, but couldn't reel in the winner who'd been given far too soft and far too big a lead early on.)

Good Friday's pick runs in the...

4.35 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bayshore Freeway @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3½f on Good to Firm ground worth £5322 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 4yr old filly who has never finished outside the first home in nine starts, winning three times and placing on four other occasions, including...

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 6 over 1m3.5f - 1m4f
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 at 5/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 under today's jockey Franny Norton
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 on Good to Firm ground
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 at 1m3.5f
  • 1 win from 2 at Class 4
  • 1 from 1 here at Bath
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance

She is trained by Mark Johnston, about whom the market tends to be right here at this venue, as since 2012 his runners sent off at 5/1 and shorter are 23/73 (31.5% SR) for 6.74pts (+9.24% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 20/55 (36.4%) for 14.02pts (+25.5%) on ground officially described using the word firm
  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 21pts (+63.7%) from his female runners
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 11.3pts (+35.3%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 3.47pts (+24.8%) from those beaten by 1-3 lengths LTO
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 2.36pts (+29.5%) in April

...whilst females on Good to Firm / Firm are 13/26 (50% SR) for 19.04pts (+73.2% ROI), including 6 from 8 (75%) for 8.61pts (+107.6%) last season...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Bayshore Freeway @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.35pm on Thursday (12.35pm here), but those of you with an unrestricted Bet365 account can get an extra quarter point right now. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

4.50 Huntingdon : Hepijeu @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd going well after 3 out, soon poised to challenge, led next, clear when went right and not fluent last, ridden out to win by a length and three quarters)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.35 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pure Shores @ 9/4 BOG  

...in a 14-runner, Class 5 Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good to Soft ground worth £4464 to the winner...  

Why?

A shorter priced pick than usual (but 2/1 BOG or better should still be worth taking) admittedly, but the statistical evidence is quite compelling about this 4 yr old filly who was a winner at Nottingham seven days ago staying on well under today's jockey Kieran O'Neill who was riding her for the first time that day.

Her overall record of 2 wins, 3 places from 12 is neither good nor bad, I'd say, but of those 12 outings, she is...

  • 2+2/8 since moving to Ian Williams
  • 2+2/6 at Class 5
  • 2+1/6 going left handed
  • and 1/1 after a break of 7 days or less

Trainer Ian Williams has his string in great form right now with 16 winners from 74 (21.6% SR) for 37.3pts (+50.4% ROI) profit over the last 30 days and these include of relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 15/61 (24.6%) for 47pts (+77%)
  • on the Flat : 10/44 (22.7%) for 29.4pts (+66.8%)
  • over trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs : 3/15 920%) for 30.35pts (+202.3%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/9 (33.3%) for 39.7pts (+440.8%)
  • ridden by Kieran O'Neill : 2/9 (22.2%) for 5.46pts (+60.7%)
  • and on Good to Soft : 2/8 925%) for 24.23pts (+302.9%)

Ian's horses have tended to go well with Kieran in the saddle this year, winning 5 of 15 (33.3% SR) for 6.92pts (+46.1%), all on the Flat and 5 from 13 (38.5%) for 8.92pts (+68.6%) in Flat handicaps, including...

  • 4/8 (50%) for 7.05pts (+88.1%) on 4/5 yr olds
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 8.05pts (+115%) on females
  • 2/2 (100%) for 8.65pts (+432.5%) over 8.5 furlongs or shorter
  • 1/1 (100%) for 6.59pts (+659%) at Class 5
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 2.06pts (+206%) here at Bath

I stated earlier that Pure Shores won last time out a week ago and it's also worth noting that over the last five (inc. this one) Flat seasons, Ian's LTO winners are 31/117 (26.5% SR) for 43pts (+36.8% ROI) profit with the following angles at play today...

  • in hcps : 28/108 (25.9%) for 30.5pts (+28.2%)
  • 1-30 days since last run : 28/86 (32.6%) for 62.4pts (+72.5%)
  • at 7/1 and shorter : 28/73 (38.4%) for 45.7pts (+62.6%)
  • at a mile or shorter : 12/40 (30%) for 45.5pts (+113.7%)
  • 1-10 dslr : 13/24 (54.2%) for 32.1pts (+133.6%)
  • and at C5 : 7/18 (38.9%) for 15.8pts (+87.7%)

And seeing that Pure Shores ran just seven days ago, should we be concerned about a quick turnaround? The last six (inc this one) seasons figures say not. They show that Ian's Flat handicappers are 26/92 (28.3% SR) for 50.4pts (+54.8% ROI) within a week of their last outing and with today's race in mind, those 92 are...

  • 24/81 (29.6%) for 56.8pts (+70.1%) after running on the Flat LTO
  • 24/78 (30.8%) for 57pts (+73.1%) as 4-8 yr olds
  • 23/52 (44.2%) for 39.3pts (+75.6%) sent off shorter than 7/1
  • 12/24 (50%) for 56.1pts (+233.6%) in September/October
  • 10/21 (47.6%) for 24.8pts (+118%) as LTO winners
  • 6/10 (60%) for 25.46pts (+254.6%) in October
  • and 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 1.39pts (+46.5%) with Kieran in the saddle.

And considering that it looks like Pure Shores will go off as favourite, it's interested to note that Kieran O'Neill has ridden 17 favourites this year so far, winning 11 times (64.7% SR) generating level stakes profits of 16.24pts (+95.5% ROI) with five of the six losers making the frame! Of the 17 rides this year...

  • hcps = 8/11 (72.7%) for 13.71pts (+124.6%)
  • Flat = 7/9 (77.8%) for 9.38pts (+104.2%)
  • and in Flat hcps? Just 5 from 6 (83.3%) for 7.99pts (+133.1%) with the only blot on the results page being a runner-up!

...which all points to... a 1pt win bet on Pure Shores @ 9/4 BOG, a price offered by several firms from 5.40pm on Tuesday evening. Bet365 were the first to show and actually offered 3/1 BOG for the best part of 90 minutes! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th July 2018

Monday's Pick was...

3.05 Ayr : Rock N Rolla @ 5/2 BOG WON at 5/2 (Made all, joined 2f out, strongly pressed 1f out, stayed on gamely)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.10 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Archimedes @ 3/1 BOG

In another 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+, this time over 5f on Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner here at Bath over 5.5f two starts ago, before a 6lb hike in the weights seemed to be a step too far next/last time out when he finished third over this 5f track and trip. In fairness, he was only beaten by two lengths that day and a 3lb easing by the handicapper could well be enough to help him record a 5th win of the year.

His career stats suggest another decent run is on the cards, as under today's conditions, his record includes...

  • 6 wins, 4 places from 39 in handicaps
  • 7 wins, 3 places from 36 with a tongue tie
  • 6 wins, 3 places from 29 wearing cheekpieces
  • 6 wins, 2 places from 15 at odds of 15/8 to 4/1
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 15 this year
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 8 going left handed on turf
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 8 in July
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 7 here at Bath (all over 5/5.5f)
  • and 2 wins, 1 place from 3 on Firm ground

His trainer David Griffiths' horses are 24/138 (17.4% SR) for 37.2pts (+27% ROI) since the start of 2014 when turned back out just 6 to 10 days after their last run from which, handicappers are 23/121 (19%) for 50.15pts (+41.5%) and of these 121 quick returning handicappers...

  • males are 22/104 (21.2%) for 64.1pts (+61.6%)
  • those priced at Evens to 17/2 are 19/65 (29.2%) for 48.5pts (+74.6%)
  • males priced at Evens to 17/2 are 18/60 (30%) for 50.4pts (+84%)
  • at Class 5 : 6/30 (20%) for 10.2pts (+34%)
  • those stepping up a class are 7/21 (33.3%) for 30.5pts (+145.3%)
  • Class 5 males priced at Evens to 17/2 are 6/18 (33.3%) for 22.2pts (+123.3%)
  • males priced at Evens to 17/2 stepping up a class are 6/9 (66.6%) for 30.7pts (+341%)
  • and males priced at Evens to 17/2 stepping up a class to Class 5 are 2/3 (66.6%) for 12.17pts (+405.6%)

And finally for today, a quick word about our jockey Fran Berry, as he has won 11 of 51 Class 4-6 handicaps here at Bath and that 21.6% strike rate is worth 37.2pts at an ROI of 73% for those backing him, including 4/20 (20%) for 15.45pts (+77.25%) at Class 5 and 3/11 (27.3%) for 3.69pts (+33.5%) on Firm ground...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Archimedes @ 3/1 BOGa price available from Betfair, Betfred, Paddy Power & Totesport at 5.20pm on Monday with some 7/2 BOG available from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.20 Doncaster : Night Castle @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, kept on same pace, no chance with front pair when lost 3rd well inside final furlong)

We start the new week with Monday's...

4.35 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Airshow @ 7/2 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 4,  5.5f Flat Handicap (3yo) on good to firm (good in places) ground worth £5387 to the winner... 

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has a record in handicaps reading 3311 and therefore comes here on a hat-trick after a win at Kempton 24 days ago. No prior run at 5.5f, but he has two wins at 6f, he also has a runner-up finish and a win from two races with today's jockey Oisin Murphy, he's a former Class 3 winner and when ditching the hood (0 from 6 with it), he has 2 wins and a place from three runs.

Trainer Rod Millman + LTO winners + 2016-18 = 16/61 (26.2% SR) for 29.8pts (+48.9% ROI) from which handicappers are 16/54 (29.6%) for 36.8pts (+68.2%), including...

  • 11-45 days since last run : 15/46 (32.6%) for 33.4pts (72.6%)
  • at odds of 10/1 and shorter : 16/45 (35.6%) for 45.8pts (+101.8%)
  • on the Flat (turf) : 12/43 (27.9%) for 17.8pts (+41.4%)
  • on Good/Good to Firm ground : 10/31 (32.3%) for 18.6pts (+60%)
  • over trips shorter than 9f : 11/26 (42.3%) for 38.7pts (+148.7%)
  • 3 yr olds  : 7/20 (35%) for 15.3pts (+76.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/19 (21.1%) for 5.67pts (+29.9%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 3/11 (27.3%) for 4.9pts (+44.6%)
  • those ridden by Oisin Murphy are 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.2pts (+135.3%)
  • and here at Bath : 1/3 (33.3%) for 2.72pts (+90.7%)

And speaking of Bath handicaps, Rod's overall record in those stands at 13/74 (17.6% SR) for 75.9pts (+102.6% ROI) since the start of 2014, from which...

  • those last seen 11-45 days earlier are 10/52 (19.2%) for 43.4pts (+83.4%)
  • males are 9/39 (23.1%) for 44.3pts (+113.5%)
  • in May : 3/16 (18.75%) for 8.78pts (+54.9%)
  • and at Class 4 : 2/10 (20%) for 3.27pts (+32.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Airshow @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.40pm on Sunday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd October 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.10 Ripon : Show Palace @ 7/2 BOG WON at 5/2 : Tracked leaders, took keen hold, not clear run over 2f out, soon switched right, 2nd over 1f out, challenged inside final furlong, ran on, led towards finish...

After a good September, we now kick October off with the...

4.40 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Air of York @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding is 1 from 2 over course and distance and as such is the only previous C&D winner in the field today. He's 7 from 13 (53.9% SR) when sent off at odds of 4/1 and shorter and makes a quick return after running at Leicester 7 days ago.

His trainer John Flint has 12 winners from 65 (+18.5% SR) for profits of 84.1pts (+129.3% ROI) here at Bath since 2009, including...

  • handicappers @ 12/62 (19.4%) for 87.1pts (+140.34%)
  • at Class 6  : 8/36 (22.2%) for 72.8pts (+202.2%)
  • after just 6-15 days rest : 6/26 (23.1%) for 27.2pts (+104.6%)

And this quick return seems to be one of Mr Flint's tried methods, as more generally since the start of 2015, his horses running again 3 to 15 days after their last run are 22/107 (20.6% SR) for 76.7pts (+71.7% ROI), of which...

  • handicappers are 21/93 (22.6%) for 86.5pts (+93%)
  • at Class 6 : 12/42 (28.6%) for 51.9pts (+123.5%)
  • 3-5 yr olds are 7/36 (19.4%) for 37.4pts (+104%)
  • and on soft ground : 5/17 (29.4%) for 8.4pts (+49.2%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Air of York @ 3/1 BOG, which was offered by Bet365, Betfred, Sunbets & Totesport at 5.30pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st August 2017

Wednesday's Result :

4.40 Lingfield : Transmitting @ 9/2 BOG - WON at 7/4 : Chased leaders, driven to challenge over 2f out, every chance over 1f out, led inside final furlong, kept on well to win by a length and three quarters...

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.40 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Paint @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

A 2yr old filly on handicap/nursery debut for the in-form Richard Hannon yard, who like sending runners here to bath, as they've got a 17.5% strike rate here over the last four seasons (25/143), whilst this year alone they are 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 11.2pts (+33.9% ROI) profit at this venue.

Also, the Hannon 2 yr olds on handicap debut are 23/153 (15% SR) for 28pts (+18.3% ROI) over the last three seasons, including of note today...

  • those with 3 previous runs under their belts : 15/104 (14.4%) for 36.2pts (+34.8%)
  • those without a previous win are 13/97 (13.4%) for 26.2pts (+27%)
  • those finishing 3rd to 6th LTO are 13/63 (20.6%) for 48.2pts (+76.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 8/52 (15.4%) for 31.1pts (+59.7%)
  • and those up in trip by a furlong are 8/49 (16.3%) for 19.5pts (+39.7%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Paint @ 3/1 BOG, which was available from Bet365, Ladbrokes &, Sunbets at 6.05pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th June 2017

Friday's Result :

7.40 Goodwood : Road To Dubai @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 13/8 Led after 1f, ridden and hung sharply left inside final furlong, soon headed, rallied towards finish, beaten by a neck.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

3.35 Bath...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Realize @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding had finished 7764 in consecutive outings before a switch to David Simcock's yard resulted in a win last time out, 24 days ago. This return to form after a cold spell (something I could also do with!) caught my eye, as it made him a qualifier for one of my stored microsystems. It's one that looks far more complicated written down than it actually but here are the rules...

...2009-17 / UK Flat hcps / Class 3-5 / 6 to 12 furlongs / won LTO 4-30 days ago after a string of 3 or more successive unplaced efforts...

Such horses are more common than you'd think and the ones I back are those in the 9/4 to 16/1 odds range and whose mark (OR) has only been raised by 0 to 4lbs for that win. This filtering gives 102 winners from 709 (14.4% SR) qualifiers over the last 8.5 seasons and a £20 stake on each has generated level stakes profits of £3566 at an ROI of 25.1%.

Now, not everyone wants 80-85 bets over Flat season from just one angle, so you could trim the number of selections by applying the following filters which are all applicable today...

  • 3-8 yr olds are 99/657 (15.1%) for 200.2pts (+30.5%)
  • those who last ran 11-30 days ago are 85/588 (14.5%) for 172pts (+29.3%)
  • males are 81/533 (15.2%) for 176.8pts (+33.2%)
  • in the April-June period : 53/303 (17.5%) for 148.5pts (+49%)

and if you wanted a condensed version of the original micro, but with just around 30 bets per season : 3-8 yr old males who last ran 11-30 days ago are 45/260 (17.3% SR) for 119.7pts (+46% ROI) in the April-July period.

It's also worth mentioning that David Simcock's handicappers who won LTO have gone on to win again on 66 of 239 occasions (27.6% SR) for profits of 65.6pts (+27.4% ROI) since the start of 2013, from which...

  • those priced at Evens to 8/1 are 58/188 (30.9%) for 79.2pts (+42.1%)
  • those last seen 6-45 days earlier are 53/169 (31.4%) for 71.1pts (+42.1%)

And a slightly broader approach with those priced at Evens to 8/1 last seen 6-75 days earlier = 51/147 (34.7% SR) for 77.8pts (+52.9% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Realize3/1 BOG offered by Betfair , Paddy Power and BetVictor at 6.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!