Tag Archives: Barry Geraghty

Stat of the Day, 5th April 2019

Thursday's pick was...

1.55 Southwell : Dolly Dupree @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 9/2 (Held up in rear, headway over 1f out, never on terms)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Aintree :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Champ 11/4 BOG

...in the 13-runner, Grade 1, Doom Bar Sefton Novices Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1f on Good to Soft/Soft worth £56130 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding has never been out of the first two home so far, winning 5 of 8 starts including...

  • 4/6 over hurdles, 4/5 going left handed & 4/5 as favourite
  • 4/6 on Good to Soft/Soft, 2/4 in Novice Hurdles
  • 3/3 carrying 11-04 to 11-06, 2/3 within 14-28 days of his last run
  • 2/3 under Barry Geraghty and 1/2 at Grade 1.

His trainer, Nicky Henderson, is 29/132 (22% SR) for 82.5pts (+62.5% ROI) over hurdles here at Aintree since 2012, from which...

  • those running at the National meeting are 17/91 (18.7%) for 50.7pts (+55.7%)
  • those racing after a break of 21-75 days : 20/90 (22.2%) for 62.5pts (+69.4%)
  • on Good to Soft / Soft ground : 16/72 (22.2%) for 17.6pts (+24.4%)
  • in non-handicaps : 18/67 (26.9%) for 13.4pts (+19.9%)
  • those who ran at the Cheltenham Festival LTO are 13/55 (23.6%) for 56.8pts (+103.3%)
  • and those sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 are 21/53 (39.6%) for 57pts (+107.5%)

And more generally...Since 2010, horses finishing in the first three home at the Cheltenham Festival who are then sent straight to the Aintree National Meeting have won 63 of 262 (24.1% SR) for 172.7pts (+65.9% ROI) and these include of relevance today...

  • non-hcps : 53/179 (29.6%) for 72.8pts (+40.7%)
  • at Grade 1 : 41/150 (27.3%) for 57.7pts (+38.5%)
  • hurdlers are 34/121 (28.1%) for 109pts (+90.1%)
  • at trips of 3m and beyond : 22/105 (21%) for 56.2pts (+53.5%)
  • and those trained by Nicky Henderson are 19/46 (41.3%) for 17.4pts (+37.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Champ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 9.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Aintree

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 14th January 2017

Friday's Result :

2.30 Lingfield : Speed Freak @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 Tracked leader, pushed along 2f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, soon joined, headed final strides

Saturday's pick goes in the...

12.55 Kempton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ericht @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

He comes here boasting excellent credentials for the task ahead, having won 3 of his 6 runs here at Kempton, as well having 6 wins on Good to Soft / Soft ground, 5 wins under Barry Geraghty, 5 wins going right handed and 4 wins at 2m4f/2m5f.

On top of all that, he has the benefit of being trained by Nicky Henderson, who has certainly started the new year in fine style, with 11 winners from 27 (40.7%), whilst here at Kempton he is 129/437 (29.5% SR) for 167.8pts (+38.4% ROI) since 2008.

That's consistent long-term profit year on year and in respect of today's race, those 437 runners are...

  • males : 116/388 (29.9%) for 138.6pts (+35.7%)
  • during the December to April months : 102/343 (29.7%) for 188.2pts (+54.9%)
  • ridden by Barry Geraghty : 70/202 (34.7%) for 53.5pts (+26.5%)
  • in handicaps : 30/158 (19%) for 128.3pts (+81.2%)
  • in chases : 44/131 (33.6%) for 39.1pts (+29.9%)
  • on good to soft : 35/112 (31.3%) for 50.2pts (+44.9%)
  • and at Class 3 : 26/95 (27.4%) for 96.2pts (+101.3%)

AND...Barry Geraghty riding a male runner in the December - April period = 29/80 (36.25% SR) for 44.7pts (+55.9% ROI)

...hence...a 1pt win bet on Ericht @ 7/2 BOG which was offered by Bet365 and at least 9 others at 7.30pm on Friday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.55 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 7th December 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th December 2013

We got no kind of run from our selection yesterday, who was another big drifter (7/2 to 6/1 this time!).

Jockey Eoin Walsh kept the horse pretty handy in the first half of the race, but when he needed to improve his position in readiness for the home turn, he went for a gap that wasn't there and ended down a blind alley.

By the time he got out of the pack, the race was gone and he came home six lengths behind the winner and with only one rival behind him.

A competitive looking 2m6f Class 2 hurdle race awaits us today in the...

1.20 Sandown

We're seven days into December and that generally signals an upturn in form for Nicky Henderson's runners, if the last two seasons are anything to go by.

In the month of December for 2011 & 2012, Mr Henderson has saddled up 11 winners from the 50 horses sent off at odds of between 5/2 and 12/1 in National Hunt handicap contests. That's a strike rate of 22% for level stakes profits of 24.1pts, or 48.2% of stakes and this last week hasn't been too shabby either. In the last seven days alone, he has had 8 winners from his 23 runners.

Nicky Henderson is also very good at judging when to ask his younger hurdlers to step up in class. Since the start of 2011, 120 of his 4 or 5 yr old hurdlers have stepped up 1 or 2 classes and have been sent off at odds of 6/1 or less.

48 of those 120 (40% SR) have gone on to win and a near 38% profit above stakes has been returned via the 45.5pts clocked up.

Mr Henderson has three runners in this race, but only Whisper satisfies the second criteria for selection today and the booking of Barry Geraghty would tend to suggest this horse is the one the yard rates highest.

Whisper has made the frame in 6 of 7 starts to date, winning 4 of them and the only blemish was a 4th place finish at Cheltenham in January of this year. Mind you, the three ahead of him were At Fishers Cross, The New One and dual Grade 2 winner Coneygree, so there was no disgrace attached to losing to those horses.

He's still unexposed at this level and is shaping up to be an improving young stayer and re-opposes Upswing here today in what should be a fascinating contest. They last met at Cheltenham 22 days ago when Whisper finished 3rd to Thomas Crapper with Upswing a further 7 lengths behind back in 6th place.

Interestingly, the 7th placed horse (another 4 lengths behind Upswing) Killala Quay had a big run yesterday to land a Grade 2 hurdle here on this very track, whilst the 5th place horse from that Cheltenham race, Free To Dream, also won hos subsequent outing.

If the form goes to plan, then we should be celebrating another Nicky Henderson December handicap success, so I'm having a 1pt win bet on Whisper at 4/1 BOG with BetVictor. This price is also available with Betfred and Stan James, so my advice would be to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 1.20 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

Here is today's racecard!

Stat of the Day, 18th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 17/03/13

Stat of the Day: 18/03/13

Stat of the Day, 18th March 2013

Oh dear. Stat of the Day is currently as frosty as our Winter has been, and shows little signs of escaping the sub-zero clutches of the cold list. A change of week, and a change of chair might help.

We're staying in Ireland for this afternoon, in the...

4.15 Navan

Very slim pickings today from a statistical perspective, and the best I can come up with is a combination of horse and trainer track stats, in the form of Paul Nolan's Panther Claw.

Let's deal with the trainer first. Nolan has run 61 horses here and eight of them have won (13%) for a profit of eight units at level stakes. Not massive, but fair enough.

His horse, Panther Claw, has been extremely consistent, and has made the frame in four of his five rules starts to date. All five have been in chases, Panther Claw having been bought after winning a point-to-point. He's looked progressive in his last three runs - form figures 312 - and has shown slightly improved form since being stepped up to a trip around today's three miles.

The horse which beat him by just over a length two starts back, Rich Revival, has gone on to win twice more since, and there were seven lengths-plus back to the rest that day.

Then, last time out, Panther Claw was third of eighteen in the Grade A Thyestes handicap chase. He was beaten by two far more experienced horses that day, and ran with great credit in the context of a race like this, for novices.

His jumping is normally very good, and it's a huge positive that Barry Geraghty will take the ride. Panther Claw has won on heavy ground, and was placed in the Thyestes last time on the same. With conditions in his favour, and 6/1 available with Boylesports, half a point each way is the advised play.

If you're new to Boylesports, they'll give you a free matched bet up to £20 on your first placed wager.

Of course, do make sure you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.15 Navan

 

Stat of the Day, 11th July 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 11th July 2012

Two Hughie horses yesterday, and both ran well, but without enhancing our bottom line. A change of chair today, and I'm off to Ireland, as I can't find anything noteworthy this side of the sea. I'm hoping to lift the hex at Wex…

2.15 Wexford

In what I think is a first for SotD, we're heading to the southeastern corner of Ireland, and Wexford.

One chap who always seems to fill his boots here is Michael Hourigan. Remarkably, from just eight runners priced 10/1 or less in the last three years, he's had six winners! Alas, Hourigan doesn't have one horse for me to leap aboard this evening, but two. So there's a reasonable prospect of me choosing the wrong one.

Cuteasafox

Cuteasafox: from my garden to Wexford races!

Nevertheless, I think a stronger case can be made for Cuteasafox, especially after this omen from my garden this morning.

Cuteasafox - the horse - is having her third start over hurdles tonight.

After a very promising second place on good ground on her debut, Cuteasafox pulled up last time out... on very soft ground.

It's unlikely to be a coincidence that her two best runs have come when soft wasn't in the going description, so it's to be hoped that they have no more rain in that corner of Ireland (I know, I know).

Assuming it stays dry, she ought to go close in a moderate enough contest.

Barry Geraghty has ridden her on her first two starts over hurdles, including that P on the scorecard last time, and he keeps the faith here, which can be seen as a positive.

The drop back in trip should also be in Cuteasafox's favour today and, if the rain stays away, she should go close. Win only is a bit 'ballsy', so you might play each way, but SotD will have its point on the nose. She's 8/1 with Ladbrokes BOG, but do...

Click here for the latest odds for the 2.15 Wexford.