Tag Archives: Ayr racecourse

Stat of the Day, 13th November 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

2.50 Lingfield : Potters Hedger @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (In touch in 4th place, pushed along before 2 out, in 4th and well held before last, left 2nd after last, no chance with winner)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.05 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Calivigny @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday 

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m3½f on Heavy ground worth £5,133 to the winner...

Why?...

This 10 yr old gelding has two wins and three places from seven efforts last season, kicking off with a third place finish returning from 6 months off the track and then following up with a win 20 days later. His seasonal reappearance this term was 18 days ago and once again he finished third after 183 days off the track, so the precedent is there.

With today's race in mind, his overall record includes...

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 9 at 4/1 or shorter
  • 2 wins, 4 places from 12 in a visor
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 12 over hurdles
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 9 here at Ayr
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 over hurdles here at Ayr
  • 1 win, 2 places from 6 on heavy ground
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 in handicap hurdles

His trainer Nick (NW) Alexander looks to have his horses coming into a nice vein of form with 3 winners and 2 placers from 12 already this month, including 3 winners and a placer from 10 in Scotland, where his hurdlers seem to go well if the market likes them.

Since the start of 2015, Nick's hurdlers sent off at odds ranging from 2/1 to 9/2 have won 22 of 48 (45.8% SR) at an A/E of 1.99 (ie almost twice as many winners as expected) generating level stakes profits of 59.35pts at an ROI of some 123.6%, including...

  • 19/43 (44.2%) for 54.23pts (+126.1%) from males
  • 18/29 (62.1%) for 59.19pts (+204.1%) during the 6 months from Sept-Feb
  • 13/22 (59.1%) for 41.1pts (+186.8%) at Class 4
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 19.82pts (+132.1%) on heavy ground
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 13.27pts (+78.1%) here at Ayr
  • and 5/7 (71.4%) for 20.93pts (+299%) from 10/11 yr olds

...whilst males running in Class 4 hurdles at 2/1 to 9/2 during September to February are 9 from 10 (90% SR) at an A/E of 3.95 for 35.3pts (+353% ROI), including a perfect 5/5 (100% SR & A/E of 4.2) and 19.08pts (+381.6% ROI) on heavy ground...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Calivigny @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday  as was available from Hills at 4.55pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd November 2019

Friday's pick was...

1.20 Wetherby : North Star Oscar @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up, good headway chasing leaders 6th, 2nd going well after 4 out, joined for well held 2nd 3 out, blundered badly 2 out, no chance after)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.40 Ayr:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gold Opera @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m5½f on Soft ground worth £9357 to the winner...

Why?...

Very simply, an in-form yard sending out a horse proven under conditions. Sometimes it is that simple and seeing as my usual deep data digging isn't bearing fruit right now, this stripped back approach is worth a try.

Trainer Keith Dalgleish has a 36.6% place strike rate and a 20% win strike rate over the past fortnight (11 placers from 30, including 6 winners) and runs this 10 yr old gelding who is already 6 from 24 (25% SR) for 8.91pts (+37.1% ROI) in handicap chases, including of relevance today...

  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 14.32pts (+84.2%) in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 16.32pts (+108.8%) at odds in the 2/1 to 8/1 range
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 11.7pts (+83.4%) wearing a visor
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 10.62pts (+118%) on Soft ground
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 8.61pts (+123%) here at Ayr
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 12pts (+600%) on soft ground here at Ayr...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Gold Opera @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Bet365 at 7.00pm on Friday, as the only open book on the race! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st October 2019

Monday's pick was...

2.00 Bath : Colonel Whitehead @ 4/1  10th at 7/2 (Chased leaders, weakened inside final 2f)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tai Sing Yeh @ 4/1 BOG 

...in a 7-runner (was 8), Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £3,623 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, I'm going to keep this short and hopefully sweet...

This Irish 5 yr old gelding has won on both his last two trips across the sea to the UK, which were incidentally his only two previous runs at this venue. Both were over today's course and distance and both were his only two UK starts for trainer JF Levins.

JF Levins' own record is good here at Ayr with 5 winners from 15 to date, but he has really had a good year this year with results reading 11411, all from male handicappers with the resultant 80% strike rate yielding 23.78pts profit at an ROI of some 475.6%, including...

  • 4 from 4 for 24.78pts (+619.5%) using a jockey claiming 3lbs
  • 3 from 3 for 18.59pts (+619.7%) over this 6f C&D
  • 3 from 3 for 18.59pts (+619.7%) with 5 yr olds
  • and 1 from 1 for 6.46pts (+646%) at Class 5

I'm aware that the yard also runs Eleuthera in the same race, but he doesn't tick all the above boxes and wouldn't be as strong a pick in my opinion...

...hence me suggesting... a 1pt win bet on Tai Sing Yeh @ 4/1 BOG  as was available from BetVictor at 5.50pm on Monday, whilst SkyBet, Betfair & Paddy Power were offering the same, but non-BOG until morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th July 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Newmarket : Gabrial The Saint @ 7/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Prominent, driven and no impression on winner from over 1f out, kept on well to hold onto 2nd)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

House Deposit @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on good to soft ground worth £2782 to the winner...

Why?...

A frustrating / disappointing turn in the chair for yours truly (Matt), with placed efforts the last couple of days not being the required winner. One more spin for me before Chris returns from his holiday, and it is Roger Fell who provides the ballast behind the bet.

Roger has a fine record at this course:

- 6/28 in the past year (+4.01, A/E 1.24, IV 2.12)
- 10/ 51 in the past five years (+5.26, A/E 1.27, IV 1.79)

Fell's record in sprint handicaps up to six furlongs in the last two years is:

- 51/350 (+87.62, A/E 1.05, !V 1.62)

And his record running horses back within a week (last two years) is:

- 39/181 (+47.56, A/E 1.37, IV 1.49)

Finally, when teaming up with Ben Curtis - a jockey in super form - their two year record is:

- 26/127 (+26.51, A/E 1.2, IV 1.97)

House Deposit returns to the track four days after running in Class 4 company. His last run in Class 6 was six starts ago, which coincided with his last win. Indeed, in six furlong Class 6 handicaps he's unbeaten in two lifetime. Those were both on soft ground. The going is currently good to soft, soft in places with more rain forecast...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on House Deposit @ 10/3 BOG as was available at 6pm on Sunday with Skybet, Coral, Betfair, Paddy, Ladbrokes and BetVictor. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.45 Market Rasen : Global Tour @ 3/1 BOG non-runner

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hard Solution @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 5f on Good ground worth £2782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding has finished 2113 in his last four starts, with both wins coming at Class 6 and the two defeats at Class 5 and he now drops back in class again.

His trainer David O'Meara has enjoyed consistent success at this venue, notching up 43 winners from 239 (18% SR) handicappers here over the past 8 seasons, generating level stakes profits of 45.2pts at an ROI of 18.9% and these 239 runners include of relevance today...

  • 37/131 (28.2%) for 55.6pts (+42.5%) at odds of 7/4 to 15/2
  • 36/187 (19.25%) for 61.8pts (+33%) after a break of 4-30 days
  • 17/60 (28.3%) for 67.7pts (+112.8%) dropping down a class
  • 16/59 (27.1%) for 17.9pts (+30.3%) finished 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • 10/51 (19.6%) for 27.3pts (+53.5%) over the last two seasons
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 22.3pts (+76.9%) ridden by David Nolan
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 36.9pts (+123%) over this 5f C&D
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 14.75pts (+54.6%) at Class 6

...whilst simply backing class droppers reappearing 4-45 days after their last run and sent off at 7/4 to 15/2 over the last five seasons would give you 11 winners from 26 (42.3% SR) for 35.6pts (+136.8% ROI), including 3 from 6 under David Nolan...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hard Solution @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.25pm on Sunday, although Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th May 2019

Monday's pick was...

5.00 Warwick : Glimpse of Gold @ 4/1 BOG non-runner

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rubytwo @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2mf on Good ground worth £5003 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 7yr old mare trained by the in-form Nicky Richards, whose runners are 6 from 26 (23.1% SR) for 51.9pts (+199.5% ROI) over the last 30 days, including 5 from 22 (22.7%) for 54.3pts (+246.9%) up in Scotland.

That success North of the border is no surprise/fluke, as I'm always keen to give at least a second glance to his runners in this area. The reason for this is that since the start of 2014, his handicappers are 62 from 351 (17.7% SR) for 47.9pts (+13.6% ROI) backed blindly running in Scotland and you could just stop there and have a very simple to implement system.

Of course, blind backing isn't mine or Geegeez style if it comes to 60+ runners per year, so you could always apply some of the following filters that are in play today, as from those 351 runners...

  • Class 4 : 24/135 (17.8%) for 11.8pts (+8.8%)
  • 11-30 dslr : 30/123 (24.4%) for 92.5pts (+75.2%)
  • 7/8 yr olds : 30/121 (24.8%) for 53.1pts (+43.9%)
  • at Ayr : 23/121 (19%) for 20.6pts (+17%)
  • at 2mf to 2mf : 22/110 (20%) for 33.8pts (+30.7%)
  • and ridden by today's jockey Daniel McMenamin : 4/19 (21%) for 8.44pts (+44.4%)

Now, if you wanted a composite micro combining the above elements, you're not going to get too many qualifiers, due to the "tightness" of the parameters I use to qualify a selection, but if you wanted to combine age/class/days since run/track and distance, you could broaden the search to 5-8 yr olds over 2m4f to 3m1f in Class 4 contests at Ayr after a break of 16-45 days and this gives 7 winners from 16 (43.75% SR) for 13.54pts (+84.7% ROI)...

...and points to... a 1pt win bet on Rubytwo @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.50pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th February 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

5.30 Wolverhampton : Steelriver @ 4/1 BOG (=3/1 after R4) WON at 3/1 (Held up and behind, going well when not clear run briefly over 1f out, barged way through and headway soon after, led inside final furlong, soon clear, winning easily by 4 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Casual Cavalier 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, 5yo+, Handicap Chase over 2m5f on Good To Soft, worth £4874 to the winner...

Why?

This 11 yr old gelding wasn't at his best when finishing fourth at Bangor last time out, but a 73-day rest and a return to Ayr might be just the ticket for him to get back to winning a ways on a track where he has 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes (all over fences, wearing cheekpieces) from his four previous visits.

His trainer, Henry Oliver, is 10 from 51 (19.6% SR) for 13.08pts (+25.7% ROI) profit from Class 4 handicap chasers sent off at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 since the start of 2017, which is a good sign and these include of relevance/note today...

  • males at 10/50 (20%) for 14.08pts (+28.2%)
  • off a mark of 99-111 : 8/24 (33.3%) for 32.14pts (+133.9%)
  • Jan-April : 6/23 (26.1%) for 13.42pts (+58.3%)
  • 3rd to 5th LTO : 7/19 (36.8%) for 32pts (+168.4%)
  • previous course winners are 3/13 (23.1%) for 9.86pts (+75.8%)
  • and here at Ayr : 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

Henry also seems to do well when not overworking his charges, as since the start of 2013, his NH handicappers with just 1 run in the previous 90 days are 28 from 138 (20.3% SR) for 50.1pts (+36.3% ROI) profit, with the following angles at play today...

  • those competing for less than £8,000 are 26/114 (22.8%) for 57.22pts (+50.2%)
  • at trips of 2m to 2m6f : 25/105 (23.8%) for 73.3pts (+69.8%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 : 25/97 (25.8%) for 48.4pts (+49.9%)
  • Nov-March : 22/88 925%) for 67.3pts (+76.4%)
  • chasers are 14/71 (19.7%) for 47.4pts (+66.8%)
  • 4th to 7th LTO : 14/69 (20.3%) for 46.7pts (+67.6%)
  • Class 4 : 16/60 (26.7%) for 48.1pts (+80.1%)
  • OR of 94-110 : 19/58 (32.8%) for 67.4pts (+116.2%)
  • 70-90 days since last run : 5/16 (31.25%) for 8.7pts (+54.4%)
  • and once again, here at Ayr = 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

...AND...from the above... Sub-£8k + 2m-2m6f + 5/4 to 10/1 + Oct-April + OR 94-110 = 14/28 (50% SR) for 60.92pts (+217.6% ROI), including...

  • Class 4 : 12/21 (57.1%) for 57pts (+271.4%)
  • 4th-7th LTO : 8/16 (50%) for 33.05pts (+206.6%)
  • chasers : 7/12 (58.3%) for 41.15pts (+342.9%)
  • 70-90 dslr : 3/6 (50%) for 10.58pts (+176.3%)
  • and almost inevitably : Ayr @ 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

...leading to...Sub-£8k + 2m-2m6f + 5/4 to 10/1 + Oct-April + OR 94-110 + Class 4 chasers + 4th-7th LTO + 2017-19 = 4/4 (100% SR) for 26.52pts (+663% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Casual Cavalier 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 6.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th February 2019

Tuesday's Pick was...

6.45 Newcastle : Macs Blessings @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/2 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on under pressure to lead inside final 150 yards, soon clear, winning by 1.25 lengths)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.30 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Magic of Milan @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m5½f on Soft gorund worth £3184 to the winner...

Why?

A 6yr old mare with a recent form line reading 2412, suggesting she's in good nick right now. The win in that sequence was (a) her only ever trip here to Ayr and (b) the previous time she's had today's jockey, Ross Chapman, ride her in a race and they combined to land a course and distance win here 29 days ago, before she was a beaten odds on fav next/last time out, although neither disgraced nor beaten by far.

Ross has ridden 12 winners here at Ayr since the start of 2018 and to put that into perspective, that's from just 41 rides (29.3% SR) generating level stakes profits of 29.4pts at an ROI of some 71.7%, including...

  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 26.4pts (+82.6%) in handicaps
  • 12/27 (44.4%) for 43.4pts (+160.7%) at single-digit odds
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 27.2pts (+118.4%) over hurdles
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 21.5pts (+134.4%) at Class 5
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 5.93pts (+296.5%) in conditional jockey races

...whilst from the above Ross is 4 from 4 (100%) for 26.4pts (+660%) in Class 5 handicap hurdles at 9/1 or shorter including that 2 from 2 record in conditional jockey races from above!

Today's trainer Sam England is also in a decent run of form with 7 winners from 28 (25% SR) over the last 40 days generating 2.75pts profit at an ROI of 9.82% : modest profits but more than his fair share of winners, especially in handicaps where he is 7/21 (33.3%) for 9.75pts (+46.4%) including at Class 4/5 : 6 from 15 (40%) for 6.93pts (+46.2%).

I mentioned that this mare was a beaten odds on favourite LTO, she was only caught really late on, so the slight drop in trip might help her and that said losing at odds on is no real disaster (unless you've lumped on!), because many horses bounce straight back from such a loss...

...as since the start of 2013 in UK NH handicaps, horses who finished as odds-on runners-up are 34 from 158 (21.5% SR) for 81.5pts (+51.6% ROI) when turned back out 16-30 days later and these include of relevance today...

  • over trips of 2m to 3m : 28/126 (22.2%) for 79.9pts (+63.4%)
  • at 8/1 and shorter : 32/24 (25.8%) for 46.4pts (+37.4%)
  • over hurdles : 20/95 (21%) for 55.8pts (+58.8%)
  • beaten by 0.25 to 4 lengths LTO : 23/73 (31.5%) for 118.2pts (+161.9%)
  • in February : 4/12 (33.3%) for 49.2pts (+409.9%)
  • and at Class 5 : also 4/12 (33.3%) but for 8.32pts (+69.3%)

...from which C5 hurdlers at 8/1 and shorter are 18/60 (30% SR) for 39.9pts (+66.5% ROI) with those only beaten by 0.25 to 4 lengths LTO winning 12 of 22 (54.6%) for 46.7pts (+212.1%)

And finally (phew!), using the same 2o13-now time frame in UK NH handicap hurdle races, those who were runners up by 3 lengths or less LTO are 49/212 (23.1% SR) for 70.2pts (+33.1% ROI) when returning to the scene of a previous course and distance win and these include...

  • at 4-60 dslr : 45/174 (25.9%) for 63.4pts (+36.4%)
  • at odds shorter than 12/1 : 47/170 (27.7%) for 78.5pts (+46.2%)
  • at trips shorter than 3m : 37/139 (26.6%) for 90.1pts (+64.8%)
  • and at Class 5 : 9/30 (30%) for 16.3pts (+54.3%)

...whilst from the above...Sub-12/1 runners turned out over trips shorter than 3 miles, 4-60 days after their last run are 42 from 128 (32.8% SR) for 93.1pts (+72.7% ROI) with Class 5 runners winning 7 of 18 (38.9%) for 17.2pts (+95.5%)...

 ...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Magic of Milan @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th January 2019

Monday's Pick was...

2.25 Musselburgh : Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Close up, ridden and headway approaching last, stayed on towards finish, but beaten by 1.75 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Instingtive @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 5, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m½f on Soft ground worth £3509 to the winner... 

Why?

OK, if I'm honest, the datasets I'm using today aren't the biggest sample sizes I've given you, but I felt that this horse was overpriced, considering there must be some some doubts about the odds-on favourite's jumping after a heavy fall last time out as it remains to be seen if that will have affected him in any way.

Our boy, on the other hand, is rock solid and consistent if not exactly prolific and with 5 places from his last seven runs, I expect him to be there or thereabouts in the closing stages once more. He has a win and 2 places from 4 runs here at Ayr and was only beaten by half a length two starts ago when collared late on in a Class 2 contest, so this represents a major drop back down in quality.

As I said, he doesn't win often enough, but all three career wins have involved the combination of 2m-2m1.5f, Class 4/5, mud, Jan-March and no more than 4 weeks rest. All those are present today and when you combine those factors, his career record of 3 from 33 becomes 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 14.87pts (+371.9% ROI) with the loss being a third placed finish!

Today's jockey, Ross Chapman, is 2 from 3 of those four races above and he was 10 from 32 (31.25% SR) for 30.6pts (+95.6% ROI) over jumps here at Ayr last year, including 8/27 (29.6%) for 23.7pts in handicaps and 3/12 925%) for 4.22pts (+35.2%) over the larger obstacles.

Our trainer, Lisa Harrison, is 5 from 27 (18.5% SR) for 8.88pts (+32.9% ROI) here at Ayr over the last three years from which, her handicap chasers sent off shorter than 8/1 are 4/7 (57.1%) for 20.94pts (+299.1%) with all 7 being males racing after less than a month's rest, including winning 3 from 3 (100%) for 17.16pts (+571.9%) in January.

And as we've looked at horse, jockey and trainer, I might as well add a note about the sire, Scorpion, because his 5-8 yr old offspring are 11 from 40 (27.5% SR) for 28.4pts (+71% ROI) in handicap jumps races over 2m to 2m3f on soft ground or worse during the last three years. And as SotD just wouldn't be SotD without at least one statistical breakdown, those 40 Scorpion progeny are...

  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 35.6pts (+122.6%) after 6-45 days off the track
  • 3/12 (25%) for 16.08pts (+134%) over fences
  • 4/10 (40%) for 16.87pts (+168.7%) competing for less than £4,000
  • 3/4 (75%) for 18.11pts (+452.9%) in January
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.03pts (+267.8%) at Class 5

...giving us a 1pt win be on Instingtive @ 9/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.10pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th November 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.50 Lingfield : Lillington @ 7/2 BOG (2.98/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 9/4 (Prominent, hampered 5th, led after 4 out, challenged after next, stayed on well to win by 1.5 lengths) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.45 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sophie Olivia @ 7/2 BOG  

...in an 11-runner, Class 4 Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £6108 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old mare had a respectable record (32128) over hurdles in 2017 before taking a 345-day break. She then returned to action 32 days ago at Hexham, when she was a 5 lengths winner, staying on well, on her chasing debut, also at Class 4 over 2m4½f on Soft ground and ridden (as she always has been) by today's jockey Henry Brooke.

This suggests that she should feel at home under today's conditions, as she aims to give the sire Ask another winner. To date, his offspring are 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 22.7pts (+80.9% ROI) over fences, mainly in Ireland but with some success here too. With respect to today's race, those progeny of Ask are...

  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 20.14pts (+118.5%) as 6 yr olds
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 16.63pts (+127.9%) as females
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 21.46pts (+306.6%) in UK Class 4 contests
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 18.42pts (+307%) on Soft ground
  • and 4/5 (80%) for 27.31pts (+546.2%) over trips of 2m4.5f to 2m6f

This particular "daughter" is trained by Martin Todhunter, who enjoys coming here up the M6 from his South Cumbria base, as his runners are 10 from 54 (18.5% SR) for 23.64pts (+43.8% ROI) in NH handicaps over the last 5 years, with those sent off at odds of Evens to 12/1 (my preferred starting point for trainer based micros) wining 10 of 41 (24.4%) for 36.64pts at an ROI of some 89.4% and these include...

  • those who raced in the last 45 days : 9/31 (29%) for 29.32pts (+94.6%)
  • chasers are 6/25 (24%) for 21.1pts (+84.4%)
  • those racing over 2m4.5f/2m5.5f are 4/14 (28.6%) for 31.42pts (+224.4%)
  • in November : 3/10 (30%) for 1.65pts (+16.5%)
  • and LTO winners are 5/8 (62.5%) for 30.86pts (+385.7%)

...and from the above...handicap chasers at Evens to 12/1 within 45 days of their last run are 5 from 18 (27.8% SR) for 10.8pts (+60% ROI), from which LTO winners are 3/4 975%) for 14.79pts (+369.7%) and those running in November are 2/4 (50%) for 5pts (+125%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sophie Olivia @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by Bet365, Ladbrokes, SkyBet & Coral at 6.00pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!