Tag Archives: Ascot racecourse

Stat of the Day, 23rd November 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.30 Newcastle : Be Proud @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 5/1 (Mid-division, headway halfway, chased leaders over 1f out, stayed on same pace closing stages)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Ascot:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

If The Cap Fits @ 7/2 BOG

...in the 6-runner, Grade 2, Coral (aka Ascot) Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on Soft ground worth £56,950 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding makes his seasonal reappearance to defend this title he won last year and comes here straight from a 231 day lay-off since landing the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle. He has 5 wins and 2 places from 8 starts over hurdles and these include...

  • 2 wins and 2 places from 5 at Class 1
  • 2 from 2 on soft ground
  • 1 from 1 here at Ascot
  • 1 from 1 with jockey Sean Bowen
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance (this race last year)

He is trained by Harry Fry, whose LTO winners are 45 from 98 (45.9% SR) for 37.9pts (+38.6% ROI) when sent off at 4/1 or shorter since the start of 2017, with the following of relevance today...

  • 42/83 (50.6%) for 37.1pts (+44.7%) with male runners
  • 40/91 (44%) for 31.6pts (+34.7%) in NH contests
  • 31/59 (52.5%) for 35pts (+59.4%) over trips of 2m to 2m5f
  • 26/42 (61.9%) for 34.4pts (+81.9%) with 6/7 yr olds
  • 21/52 (40.4%) for 9.64pts (+18.5%) over hurdles
  • 13/22 (59.1%) for 16.77pts (+76.2%) during October/November
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 4.8pts (+80%) here at Ascot...

...whilst NH males over 2m to 2m5f are 27 from 47 (57.5% SR) for 27.5pts (+58.5% ROI).

And more longer-term, Harry Fry's NH runners sent off at 7/1 and shorter here at Ascot are 17 from 43 (39.5% SR) for 28.5pts (+66.3% ROI) since the start of 2014 and they include...

  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 30.75pts (+113.9%) over hurdles
  • 9/15 (60%) for 17.7pts (+118%) in November
  • 8/18 (44.4%) for 13.23pts (+73.5%) on Soft ground
  • 8/16 (50%) for 19.32pts (+120.8%) with LTO winners
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 6pts (+37.5%) at Class 1
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 12.12pts (+93.2%) over 2m3f-2m3.5f
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 15.53pts (+194.1%) since the start of last year
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 7.73pts (+110.4%) for prize money of £40k-£75k
  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 16.13pts (+268.8%) with 7 yr olds
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 6.67pts (+83.4%) at Grade 2...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on If The Cap Fits @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by a handful of firms at 6.30pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2019

Friday's pick was...

7.50 Newmarket : Agincourt @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (In touch, headway 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Royal Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Defoe @ 4/1 BOG

...in the 9-runner, Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes  for 4yo+ over 1m4f on Good (Good to Firm in places, but was initially Good To Soft!) ground worth £127598 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, I'm taking one of my rare dips into Class 1 racing with this 5yr old gelding who has got better and better this season. He finished 113 last season and was then gelded. He returned from a long break to finish fourth in a Gr3, then was a runner-up at Gr2 before winning the Gr 1 Coronation Cup over this trip at Epsom 22 days ago.

Technically, this is a slight drop in class and if he gets the breaks he might need, then we should all be celebrating at 3.45pm today.

He has won 8 of 14 starts to date, including of relevance today...

  • 6/7 as favourite
  • 6/9 at odds below 5/1
  • 6/11 under today's jockey Andrea Atzeni
  • 5/10 at Class 1
  • 4/6 at 11/12 furlongs
  • and 4/7 on Good ground

His trainer Roger Varian had a winner here yesterday and since 2012 over trips of 6-12 furlongs at Class 1, has notched up a vey respectable 70 winners from 444 (15.8% SR) for 117.7pts (+26.5% ROI), from which the following are at play this afternoon...

  • 48/183 (26.2%) for 8.22pts (+4.5%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 42/280 (15%) for 123.8pts (+44.2%) on Good/Good to Firm ground
  • 37/199 (18.6%) for 111.6pts (+56.1%) ridden by Andrea Atzeni
  • 33/194 (17%) for 119.7pts (+61.7%) at 11-30 days since last run
  • 31/156 (19.9%) for 121.1pts (+77.6%) in fields of 9-12 runners
  • 27/147 (18.4%) for 58.1pts (+39.5%) from LTO winners
  • and 17/84 (20.2%) for 18.9pts (+22.5%) from 5/6 yr olds

And finally, a quick glance at the pace and draw tabs on our interactive racecard  suggests that horses drawn highest do well in this type of contest, as do those who like to be held up for a late run, whilst those drawn higher and are held up do very well indeed.

Defoe certainly won the Coronation Cup from off the pace and looks the likeliest to be held up today and he'll come from stall 7. He might need a gap or two to open up for him (the track is certainly wide enough anyway), but if he gets a clear enough run, he's the one for me here...

...hence... a 1pt win bet on Defoe @ 4/1 BOG as offered pretty much everywhere at 6.05pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Royal Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st May 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

7.40 Newcastle : Blindingly @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 9/2 (Tracked leaders in main group, ridden and hung left over 2f out, weakened under pressure inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dee Ex Bee @ 11/4 BOG

...in the 7-runner, Group 3 Longines Sagaro Stakes for 4yo+ over 2m on Good To Firm ground worth £34026 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old Colt had decent runner-up finishes in both of last year's Chester Vase and The Derby, before losing his way slightly. That said, he was far from disgraced in finishing fourth stepping up in trip in the St Leger, which was his final effort of a busy/tiring season.

That was quite a while ago, but he looked like he'd be able to get today's trip and if ready for the challenge, he's certainly well rested this time!

Jockey William Buick is in good nick riding 7 winners from 22 over the last fortnight and rides this track well, having 43 winners from 257 (16.7% SR) for 31.7pts (+12.3% ROI) over the last 5 seasons, including 6 wins from 23 (26.1%) in Group 3 contests that have generated profits of 9.52pts (+41.4%)

His record here at Ascot for trainer Mark Johnston stands at 4/17 (23.5% SR) for 3.47pts (+20.4% ROI) with the following of interest/relevance today...

  • in non-hcps : 4/15 (26.7%) for 5.47pts (+36.5%)
  • at Class 1 : 3/14 (21.4%) for 2.24pts (+16%)
  • on Good to Firm : 3/10 (30%) for 7.75pts (+77.5%)
  • males are 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.47pts (+127.5%)
  • and for prizes of less than £35k : 2/5 (40%) for 1.95pts (+39%)

...whilst from the above... Buick + Johnston + males + 6/1 & shorter + non-hcps = 4/4 (100% SR) for 16.47pts (+411.8% ROI) including 3/3 at Class 1, 3/3 on Gd to Firm and 2 from 2 in Class 1 races on Good to Firm ground...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dee Ex Bee @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available  at 6.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 20th October 2018

Friday's Pick was...

5.15 Haydock : Lightning Attack @ 6/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The Tin Man @ 7/2 BOG  

...in the 14-runner, Class 1, Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes for 3yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £358691 to the winner... 

Why?

Much has already been written elsewhere about this horse & race by far more knowledgeable people than me, so I'll keep this fairly brief, as not to repeat too much information that you've already been given.

This 6 yr old gelding is in good nick (as always, it would seem!) having finished 141 in his three runs this season and with those wins coming on Good to Firm and also on Heavy, I'm not sure there's any ground he won't go on!

He won a Group 1 last time out, 6 weeks ago, when partnered by today's jockey Oisin Murphy for the first time and Oisin himself is in good form as I'll touch upon shortly.

The Tin Man has won 9 times (plus 2 places) from 19 starts to date and this includes 5 wins from 7 at 4/1 and shorter, 4 wins from 5 as a favourite, 3 wins (and 2 places) from 10 Group 1 efforts and 3 wins from 7 here at Ascot.

Now back to our jockey, Oisin Murphy who has enjoyed a pretty constant strike rate of around 20% over the last few months, actually winning 80 of 398 (20.1% SR) for 27.8pts (+7% ROI) over the last 90 days, including...

  • 4/10 (40%) for 16pts (+160%) at Group 1
  • 4/8 (50%) for 17.04pts (+213%) for trainer James Fanshawe.

And more generally, in Class 1 Flat races over the last 6 seasons, previous C1 winners with a career strike rate of 25% or higher are 37/174 (21.3% SR) for 167.6pts (+96.3% ROI) when running at the same class or up by 1 or 2 grades some 31-75 days after a top 3 finish LTO.

Stradivarius & Thomas Hobson also both fit this bill in the previous race, but with regards to our contest, those 174 runners are...

  • males : 27/119 (22.7%) for 162.7pts (+136.7%)
  • 31-45 days since last run : 24/108 (22.2%) for 162.5pts (+150.5%)
  • prizes of £100k or more : 20/87 (23%) for 164.1pts (+188.6%)
  • at Ascot : 13/63 (20.6%) for 20.2pts (+32.1%)
  • 12-17 runners in race : 12/45 (26.7%) for 177pts (+393.3%)
  • over 5-7 furlongs : 11/45 (24.4%) for 164.6pts (+365.7%)
  • and those with a 25-50% strike rate at the track : 7/25 (28%) for 11.3pts (+45.2%)

Of the above 7 criteria, Stradivarius hits numbers 1,3,4 and 7, whilst Thomas Hobson hits 1,2,3,4 & 7, but our pick today ticks all those boxes...

...so our advice is... a 1pt win bet on The Tin Man @ 7/2 BOG , as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.05pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th September 2018

Friday's Pick was...

6.00 Musselburgh : Zeshov @ 11/4 BOG WON at 6/4 (Raced wide tracked leaders, led approaching 2f out, ridden and ran on)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ghostwatch @ 5/1 BOG  

In the 11-runner, Class 2 Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap) for 3yo over 1m4f on Good ground, worth £62250 to the winner...

Why?

Going to keep this one relatively simple with this in-form 3 yr old who has 3 wins and 2 places from 6 runs this year, including wins at both 1m4f and 1m6f, ensuring stamina shouldn't be an issue today.

He has also won at this grade (LTO 14 days ago) and he has 2 wins and 2 places from the four occasions that William Buick has been in the saddle.

His trainer Charlie Appleby is bang amongst the winners again with a 4 from 8 record over the last fortnight, from which Mr Buick is 4 from 7, whilst over the last three seasons, the Appleby string are 17 from 100 (17% SR) for 37.6pts (+37.6% ROI) profit here at Ascot, from which...

  • William Buick is 12/62 (19.4%) for 36.7pts (+59.2%)
  • at Class 2 : 5/38 (13.2%) for 40.8pts (+107.3%)
  • over 1m4f course and distance : 4/19 (21.1%) for 26.9pts (+141.8%)

And finally, I think it's worth noting that Charlie Appleby's LTO winners running at Class 1/2 over 8.5 to 13.5 furlongs are 24 from 94 (25.5% SR) for 49.2pts (+52.3% ROI), including...

  • 3 yr olds at 12/45 (26.7%) for 52.3pts (+116.2%)
  • under William Buick : 12/43 (27.9%) for 38.1pts (+88.6%)
  • at Class 2 : 12/38 (31.6%) for 19.4pts (+51.1%)
  • in 3 yo only races : 7/32 (21.9%) for 29.1pts (+90.9%)
  • after a break of less than 3 weeks : 10/25 (40%) for 27.7pts (+110.8%)
  • and here at Ascot : 3/12 (25%) for 12.4pts (+103.4%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Ghostwatch @ 5/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair, BetStars, BetVictor & Paddy Power as of 7.20pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st June 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

7.10 Chelmsford : Tropics @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 3/1 (Unruly in stalls, fly leapt start and lost all chance, always in rear)

Next up is Thursday's...

3.40 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wild Illusion @ 11/4 BOG

A 10-runner, Group 2 Fillies Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Good To Firm ground worth £113420 to the winner...

Why?

With the obvious caveat about the ground maybe not suiting her (she'd probably be a fair shorter than 11/4 on softer), it's hard for me to look beyond this likeable, classy filly. She's already a Group 1 winner via last season's Prix Marcel Boussac and with two creditable runs in defeat at that level this season, she brings the best form to the table today.

That form was a decent fourth in the 1,000 Guineas before finishing as runner-up in the recent Oaks beating two of today's rivals in the process. William Buick is in the saddle and he's in great form right now, including winning twice at this festival already this week : one of which was for trainer Charlie Appleby and it's their relationship that I'm going to look at here.

I'm keeping it simple today, but the Appleby / Buick / Class 1 axis stands at 21 winners from 124 (16.9% SR) for 15.92pts (+12.8% ROI) profit since the start of 2016, so they're a fairly safe long-term bet. With respect to today's contest, those 124 runners are...

  • 19/100 (19%) for 31.9pts (+31.9%) after a top 4 finish LTO
  • 15/70 (21.4%) for 3.6pts (+5.1%) at odds of 5/4 to 6/1 (so they win plenty but get overbet)
  • 11/64 (17.2%) for 18.2pts (+28.4%) when tilting for prizes in excess of £40k
  • 10/60 (16.6%) for 12.8pts (+21.3%) when racing 11-30 days since their last run
  • 11/50 (22%) for 31.9pts (+63.8%) at the age of 3
  • 5/29 (17.2%) for 27.9pts (+96.2%) in June
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 15.4pts (+67.1%) here at Ascot
  • and 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.2pts (+107.4%) after running in a Group 1 race last time out.

And to be honest with you, those numbers allied to her form/ability is enough to convince me to part with my usual stake, but I can add another layer of data for reassurance via the fact that her "daddy" is the mighty Dubawi...

..and Dubawi offspring racing at Class 1 on the Flat over this 1m4f trip are 19/86 (22.1% SR) for 28.6pts (+33.3% ROI), from which...

  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 16/58 (27.6%) for 40.9pts (+70.5%)
  • competing for £50k+ : 10/53 (18.9%) for 14.1pts (+26.6%)
  • in June : 6/28 (21.4%) for 11.2pts (+40%)
  • at Ascot : 5/24 (20.8%) for 20.5pts (+85.5%)
  • at Group 2 : 6/18 (33.3%) for 27.3pts (+151.6%)
  • 11-20 days since last run : 5/18 (27.8%) for 20.04pts (+111.3%)
  • and here at Royal Ascot : 2/7 (28.6%) for 17.96pts (+256.6%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Wild Illusion @ 11/4 BOGwhich was widely available at 4.55pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st October 2017

Friday's Result :

4.55 Redcar : Restive @ 9/2 BOG WON at 10/3 : Towards rear, headway 3f out, ridden to chase leaders over 1f out, stayed on to challenge when carried right inside final furlong, led towards finish, scoring by a length...

Saturday's selection goes in the...

1.25 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stradivarius @ 8/1 BOG

Why?

A Group 2, 3yo+ contest over 2m on soft ground...

...and a 3 yr old Colt who is a former Group 1 winner and has won three times and been placed twice from 5 runs this year.

His suitability for today's task can be shown by the following achievements...

  • 3/3 going left handed, 2/2 after a short 25-45 day break
  • 2/2 at odds of 5/1 and bigger, 2/2 in fields of 12 or more
  • 1/1 at Group 2, 1/1 here at Ascot and 1/1 over 2 miles

He's trained by John Gosden, whose runners are 19/99 (19.2% SR) for 2.94pts (+2.96% ROI) over the last 30 days, of which Frankie Dettori has ridden 5 winners from 20 (25%) for profits of 17.03pts (+85.15%).

More long term, this trainer/jockey partnership is 44/170 (25.9% SR) for 21.7pts (+12.8% ROI) in Class 1 contests over the last four seasons, including...

  • those priced at 5/4 to 12/1 : 32/132 (24.2%) for 38.9pts (+29.5%)
  • 3 yr olds @ 27/91 (29.7%) for 28.3pts (+31.1%)
  • here at Ascot : 7/30 (23.3%) for 2.4pts (+8%)
  • and at Group 2 : 7/25 (28%) for 18.4pts (+73.6%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Stradivarius @ 8/1 BOG, which was widely available at 8.50pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.25 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th September 2017

Thursday's Result :

4.35 Haydock : Azari @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 : Dwelt, in rear, headway 3f out on inner, soon chased winner, kept on and always well held, beaten by Steve's Race of the Day selection by two lengths...

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.15 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fire Brigade @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Here we have an in-form horse with some relevant positive race stats representing a yard also in good touch who do well at this track.

Need numbers?

OK, let's go!

We've a 3 yr old gelding with three wins in his last six outings, including a win over this 1m trip last time out, on soft ground 27 days ago. He has won 4 of his 13 starts to date, which is a decent return for mid-grade horses, but the following suggest this is his kind of race, as his record includes...

  • 3 wins and a place from 6 over the 1m trip
  • 4 wins and a place when sent off at 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 wins from 5 after a break of 2 to 4 weeks
  • a win and a place from 2 runs on good to soft ground
  • he won his only previous race in this grade
  • he won his only previous race under Silvestre de Sousa
  • and he made the frame on his only other visit to this track, which was at a higher grade than today

And the trainer?

Michael Bell has saddled up 5 winners from 21 runners over the last fortnight, so things are going pretty well there, whilst since 2008 his record here at Ascot stands at 20 from 174 (11.5% SR) for profits of 60pts at an ROI of 34.5% : these are decent numbers, of course, but in the context of this particular challenge...

  • his male runners are 16/137 (11.7%) for 63.7pts (+46.5%)
  • in non-handicaps : 8/66 (12.1%) for 56.7pts (+85.9%)
  • over the last four seasons : 8/51 (15.7%) for 70.2pts (+137.7%)
  • LTO winners are 10/48 (20.8%) for 22.9pts (+47.7%)
  • and those coming off a break of 21-30 days are 9/46 (19.6%) for 26.4pts (+57.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fire Brigade @ 11/4 BOG, which was available from over half a dozen firms at 5.55pm on Thursday, so the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th July 2017

Thursday's Result :

7.05 Newbury : Pilgrims Treasure @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 7/2 Pushed along briefly after start, held up in touch on inside, eased out over 3f out, headway chasing leaders soon after, hung left over 2f out, ridden inside final 2f, soon beaten.

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.55 Ascot...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Appeared @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has 2 wins and 4 places from his last 6 runs and was a winner two starts ago over this course and distance, before finishing second LTO five weeks ago, also over C&D.

There was no disgrace in getting beaten at that Royal Ascot race, as not only did he beat 17 other rivals in that Class 2 race, but the winner has since gone on to land a Listed contest by a wider margin than the defeat suffered by Appeared.

His trainer Roger Varian is in prime form at the moment, having saddled 7 winners from just 19 runners (36.8% SR) in the last 9 days, whilst throughout his career his Flat handicappers priced at 13/2 or shorter are 154/637 (24.2% SR) for 52.8pts (+8.3% ROI).

Now, whilst 8.3% ROI isn't as high as we normally lead with on SotD, it's actually a decent return from blanket betting over 600 runners with no filters other than price. If we do apply some relevant and logical filters, then the numbers become far more attractive, such as...

  • those finishing 2nd to 7th LTO are 99/369 (26.8%) for 72.5pts (+19.6%)
  • those racing after a break of 21-75 days are 80/300 (26.7%) for 62.5pts (+20.8%)
  • those racing over 8.5 to 12.5 furlongs are 77/286 (26.9%) for 91pts (+31.8%)
  • in the months of June/July : 75/277 (27.1%) for 46.8pts (+16.9%)
  • at Class 2 : 25/127 (19.7%) for 7.6pts (+6%)
  • 5 yr olds are 11/40 (27.5%) for 17.6pts (+43.9%)
  • and those ridden by the excellent Silvestre de Sousa are 8/20 (40%) for 5pts (+25%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Appeared @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Bet365 & BetVictor at 5.45pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Ascot...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th July 2017

Thursday's Result :

7.45 Epsom : Tapis Libre @ 9/4 BOG WON at 7/4 Tracked leader, led over 6f out, headed over 2f out, ridden and rider dropped whip 1f out, rallied to regain lead inside final furlong, just held on gamely.

Friday's pick goes in the...

4.00 Ascot...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Camerone10/3 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old filly who has won two of her four starts to date, including a win at Beverley last time out 24 days ago when tackling this 1m4f trip for the first time.

As well as being in clearly good form, she also benefits from the weight for age allowance that sees 3yr olds given an advantage in open age handicaps with the allowance increasing the longer the race becomes.

This allowance isn't a secret, but some trainers are better than others at making the most of it and if you want a trainer who's amongst the most adept, step forward Ralph Beckett.

Ralph's 3yr olds getting the WFA in open age Flat (Turf) handicaps at trips of 1m4f to 1m6.5f are 29/88 (33% SR) for level stakes profits of 57.6pts at an impressive ROI of 65.5% and to be honest, those numbers are good enough for me!

However, if you want to quantify how well those numbers stack up in a contest like today's, then I can tell you that the 88 runners are...

  • 28/82 (34.2%) for 53.45pts (+65.2%) having run in the last 60 days
  • 22/67 (32.8%) for 36.8pts (+54.9%) over a mile and half
  • 24/66 (36.4%) for 71.7pts (+108.6%) at odds of 11/8 to 10/1
  • 20/56 (35.7%) for 30.84pts (+55.1%) from his female runners
  • 12/24 (50%) for 27.02pts (+112.6%) from LTO winners
  • 8/23 (34.8%)  for 19.03pts (+82.7%) at Class 3
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 8.41pts (+36.6%) in fillies races
  • 8/16 (50%) for 17.02pts (+106.4%) on Good to Soft ground
  • 3/5 (60%) for 9.81pts (+196.2%) ridden by Harry Bentley
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 8.19pts (+409.5%) here at Ascot

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Camerone10/3 BOG which was available from half a dozen firms at 5.50pm on Thursday. Those of you with an unrestricted Bet365 account however, should take the 7/2 BOG offered there. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Ascot..

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!