Tag Archives: Andrew Balding

Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2019

Monday's Pick was...

2.05 Warwick : Ange Des Malberaux @ 7/1 BOG WON at 7/1 (Held up in rear, headway before 14th, 2nd 2 out, led before last, clear towards finish, won easily by 5 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Straight Right @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 7f on Tapeta worth £15752 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding is pretty lightly raced with just four runs in the last year, but he did win two of them and make the frame in another, including a Class 2 course and distance success here. He's 2 from 4 on standard A/W going, all at Class 2, 2/2 at 7f and 1/1 over C&D.

He's by Siyouni, whose offspring are 23 from 106 (21.7% SR) for 55.4pts (+52.2% ROI) on A/W tracks over the last two years and these include of relevance today...

  • 11/40 (27.5%) for 23.5pts (+58.8%) over 7f
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 22.1pts (+170.1%) at Class 2
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 25.8pts (+322.7%) here at Newcastle

And he's trained by Andrew Balding who is 5 from 12 (41.7% SR) for 9.4pts (+78.3% ROI) over the last 10 days including saddling up 4 winners from 7 runers over 6 to 8 furlongs, whilst more long-term, his sub-5/1 male A/W handicappers are 57 from 167 (34.1% SR) for 41.2pts (+24.7% ROI) since the start of 2014 and with today's race in mind, those 167 runners are...

  • 35/100 (35%) for 31.79pts (+31.79%) after no more than 30 days rest
  • 18/32 (56.3%) for 29.59pts (+92.5%) since the start of 2018
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 5.52pts (+26.3%) over 7f
  • and 12 from 19 (63.2%) for 19.45pts (+102.4%) from those racing after no more than 30 days rest since the start of 2018

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Straight Right @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by half a dozen firms at 5.10pm on Monday evening, whilst Bet365 were another half point better still. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. A quick headsup about the next couple of picks : I'm away for the weekend from tomorrow afternoon, so Matt's in the hotseat for Saturday's pick and I'll be doing Monday's pick when I get home, but it won't appear until after midnight Sunday at the earliest! Sorry for any inconvenience caused.

Stat of the Day, 29th September 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.00 Newmarket : Main Edition @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Overall leader far side, ridden and headed entering final furlong, no extra and lost 2nd towards finish) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.35 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Intransigent @ 11/4 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good to Soft ground, worth £6081 to the winner... 

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner last time out 15 days ago when comfortably landing the spoils over this very course and distance in a better race (Class 3) than this one, despite being poorly drawn in stall 8 of 10.

His trainer Andrew Balding has got his runners firing of late, as his Flat handicappers are 19 from 86 (22.1% SR) for 8.27pts (+9.61% ROI) over the last 30 days, whilst more long-term (ie since 2010) his record here on the Roodee stands at 61 from 265 (23% SR) for 157.4pts (+59.4% ROI).

These are excellent track records and include of relevance/note today...

  • handicappers at 42/166 (25.3%) for 116.8pts (+70.4%)
  • over the last three seasons : 29/116 (25%) for 96.8pts (+83.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 30/107 (28%) for 92.9pts (+86.8%)
  • in September : 18/67 (26.9%) for 33.5pts (+50%)
  • LTO winners are 12/54 (22.2%) for 33.7pts (+62.5%)

And that LTO winners stat isn't restricted to Chester as since 2012, Mr Balding's LTO winners are 137/664 (20.6% SR) for 142.9pts (+21.5% ROI), including 72 winners from 337 (21.4%) for 126.5pts (+37.5%) over trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs.

Our jockey today is Joshua Bryan, who didn't have a ride yesterday, but did win both his contests on Thursday over at Pontefract, firstly landing an SotD win on Francis Xavier, before winning for Andrew Balding later on the card.

Joshua has already won three races here at Chester this season from just 12 (25% SR) handicap contests for profits of 14.72pts (+122.7% ROI) and these include...

  • over 6 to 7.5 furlongs : 3/6 (50%) for 20.72pts (+345.4%)
  • for Andrew Balding : 2/7 (28.6%) for 1.52pts (+21.7%)
  • and over 6 to 7.5f for Mr Balding : 2/4 (50%) for 4.52pts (+113%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Intransigent @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by ten different firms at 6.00pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th August 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

5.15 Ffos Las : Air of York @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 7/1 (Held up, headway over 2f out, soon chasing leaders, never able to challenge, weakened closing stages)

Wednessday's pick goes in the...

5.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pot Luck 3/1 BOG

In a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 2yr old filly trained by Andrew Balding, whose runners are in fine form right now (wish I was!), notching up 8 winners from 19 (42.1% SR) over the last 7 days.

More long-term, Andrew's runners making their second start in a handicap are 40 from 229 (17.5% SR) for 99.9pts (+43.6% ROI) since the start of 2014 and these runners include...

  • June-October : 24/143 (16.8%) for 114pts (+79.7%)
  • 7f/1m : 13/76 (17.1%) for 62.8pts (+82.7%)
  • females : 13/66 (19.7%) for 52.8pts (+80%)
  • in 2018 : 10/36 (27.8%) for 69.5pts (+192.9%)
  • Class 6 : 8/34 (23.5%) for 2.9pts (+8.6%)
  • at Kempton : 8/33 (24.2%) for 22.4pts (+68%)

...AND... females at 7f/1m in June-October = 4/15 (26.7% SR) for 53.9pts (+359.6% ROI) including 2 wins from 3 this year so far.

Joshua Bryan takes the ride today and takes 3lbs off our girl's back with his claim and Andrew Balding + A/W handicaps + 3lb claimers = 14/59 (23.7% SR) for 26.3pts (+44.6% ROI) since the start of 2013, including of relevance today...

  • on Polytrack : 13/48 (27.1%) for 14.5pts (+30.1%)
  • over 7f to 8.5f : 7/27 (25.9%) for 9.04pts (+33.5%)
  • Sub-5/1 shots are 11/25 (44%) for 19pts (+76%)
  • and here at Kempton : 5/14 (35.7%) for 19.4pts (+138.5%)

...AND...at odds shorter than 5/1 on Polytrack over 7f to 8.5f = 6/10 (60% SR) for 14.87pts (+148.7% ROI) with one winner from two here at Kempton showing 3.75pts profit.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Pot Luck 3/1 BOGa price offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2017

Wednesday's Result :

8.10 Kempton : Banish @ 8/1 BOG (6.4/1 after 20p R4) WON at 5/1 : Switched right after start, took keen hold towards rear, travelling strongly on inside 3f out, headway over 2f out, went 2nd over 1f out, driven to lead inside final furlong, stayed on op...

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.10 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Summer Chorus @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 4yr old filly has finished 322 in her last three outings and was only beaten by half a length last time out. That was 26 days ago, when behind Big Tour who has since won again off a mark 4lbs higher and up in class, so if the form holds out, we could be well in.

She's got 1 win and 1 place from 2 starts here and possesses the same record under today's jockey Oisin Murphy and her trainer Andrew Balding is in good form right now, saddling up 8 winners from 37 (21.6% SR) over the last fortnight.

More long-term, the Balding yard is 18/93 (19.4% SR) for 58.7pts (+63.1% ROI) with handicappers priced at 12/1 and shorter on the Rowley track here since 2009, from which...

  • those last seen 11-30 days ago are 13/45 (28.9%) for 49.9pts (+110.8%)
  • 4 yr olds are 7/28 (25%) for 38pts (+135.6%)
  • at Class 3  : 5/27 (18.5%) for 26.3pts (+97.2%)
  • females are 4/15 (26.7%) for 16.6pts (+110.9%)
  • and over 7 furlongs : 3/12 (25%) for 172pts (+143.7%)

And then there's the matter of 3 to 5 yr olds running over 7/7.5 furlongs on the Flat after three consecutive top 3 placings. Such horses that were 2nd or 3rd last time out 6-30 days earlier are 96/442 (21.7% SR) for 177.8pts (+40.2% ROI) over the last six seasons, including...

  • those last seen 11-30 days ago : 80/355 (22.5%) for 181.4pts (+51.1%)
  • females are 40/145 (27.6%) for 164.5pts (+113.4%)
  • at Class 3 : 18/49 (36.7%) for 80.8pts (+164.9%)
  • and on the Rowley : 3/6 950%) for 49.3pts (+821.8%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Summer Chorus @ 7/2 BOG, which was offered by Bet365, BetVictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th September 2017

Monday's Result :

5.00 Brighton : Black Caesar @ 11/2 BOG (3.85/1 after 30p R4)- WON at 7/2 : Led early, chased leader, switched right 2f out, led entering final furlong, soon clear, comfortably home by 6 lengths...

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.15 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Golden Salute @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

A fourth start for this progressive-looking filly, who is 2 from 2 after finishing 7th on debut earlier in "the summer" (as some people still like to call the middle part of the year!), more is needed on handicap/nursery debut of course, but the signs are good, for...

...trainer Andrew Balding's late season 2 yr olds are something I look out for. Well, more specifically, I look for runners to fulfil the following criteria...

...2009-17 / Flat / Class 1 to 4 / 5 to 7 furlongs / July to October / just 0-3 career runs to date - this sounds quite restrictive, but it's a nice little micro good for around 35 bets a season and to date stands at 39/303 (12.9% SR) for 38.2pts (+126.1% ROI) profit.

Those numbers are then backed up by Mr Balding's record since 2010 with 2 to 4 yr olds making a handicap debut after at least one career win and such beasts are 24/113 (21.2% SR) for 46.5pts (+41.2% ROI) in the 6/4 to 12/1 broad odds range, with today's jockey, Geegeez-sponsored, David Probert riding 14 of those of 24 winners from just 41 attempts (34.2% SR) for profits of 45.4pts (+110.8% ROI).

Lucky pants?

Lucky pants?

So, if the "lucky Geegeez pants" work their magic again today...

...we're well set with... a 1pt win bet on Golden Salute @ 5/2 BOG, which was widely available at 8.30pm on Monday: the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with Sky again. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th May 2017

Thursday's Result :

4.15 Perth : Caius Marcius @ 4/1 BOG WON at 13/8 Held up in touch, effort to chase leader after 3 out, led just before last, ridden out to win by the best part of three lengths.

Friday's pick goes in the...

2.10 Newmarket...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Passcode9/2 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old filly, 3rd on debut over 7f on good to soft, but outpaced late on, stepped up to this 1m trip for her next/last run some 181 days later (31 days ago) and was a winner by a short head.

I'd expect her to improve for having had the pipe opener last month and confidence will be high at home, as trainer Andrew Balding is 4 from 8 this week already and his Class 5 handicappers having only their 2nd run inside a 90 day period are 31/137 (22.6% SR) for 92.6pts (+67.6% ROI) since 2008, from which...

  • those last seen 11-45 days back are 26/105 (24.8%) for 97.4pts (+92.8%)
  • over 6f to 1m2f : 21/95 (22.1%) for 79.3pts (+83.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 19/79 (24.1%) for 82.3pts (+104.2%)
  • females are 10/40 (25%) for 48pts (+120%)
  • those on hcp debut are 10/32 (31.25%) for 50.5pts (+157.8%)
  • and LTO winners are 6/14 (42.9%) for 14.2pts (+101.5%)

That handicap debut stat above is unsurprising to be honest, as his 3 yr old handicap debutants priced shorter than 5/1 are 17 from 50 (34% SR) for 20.1pts (+40.2% ROI) profit since the start of 2014...

...which give us...a 1pt win bet on Passcode9/2 BOG which was widely available at 8.05pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 8th March 2017

Tuesday's Result :

2.00 Southwell : Crosse Fire @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 9/4 Prominent, ridden over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, stayed on, beaten by just over half a length.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

4.30 Lingfield...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Make Music13/2 BOG

Why?

Well, on another day that's hardly brimming with decent statistical options, I'm going to keep it fairly simple with a 4yr old who has 3 wins and a place from just 5 visits to Lingfield (2 wins from 3 on the A/W) and has a 2 from 6 record under today's jockey David Probert.

She's trained by Andrew Balding whose runners have won 48 of their 280 A/W races here at Lingfield since the start of 2013 and that 17.1% strike rate is good for level stakes profits of 76.1pts at an ROI of 27.2%. These are decent enough figures to base a bet on, especially when I feel the horse is overpriced at as high as 7/1 (she was actually 12's at one point!).

More confidence is gained from breaking the trainer's record down into components of today's race, because those 280 Andrew Balding Lingfield runners have achieved the following under today's conditions...

  • over 6f to 1m : 27/170 (15.9%) for 115.6pts (+68%)
  • running 16-30 days after last run : 18/97 (18.6%) for 123pts (+126.8%)
  • ridden by David Probert : 19/96 (19.8%) for 73.3pts (+76.4%)
  • 4 yr olds are 14/50 (28%) for 35.5pts (+71%)
  • and at Class 4 : 8/26 (30.8%) for 28.8pts (+110.6%)

...providing...a 1pt win bet on Make Music 13/2 BOG which was available with Hills, Betbright, BetVictor and/or Coral at 6.35pm on Tuesday, but if you can, DO take the 7/1 BOG-plus on offer from Betway. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 4th February 2017

Friday's Result :

3.20 Catterick : Actinpieces @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/1 Held up in touch in last pair, steady headway tracking leaders 4 out, 3rd next, ridden and went 2nd last, stayed on to lead final 110 yards to win by 3.25 lengths.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Verne Castle @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 4yr old gelding has won three of his last four, over over this 5f trip on the A/W and was 5th last time out 30 days ago, when probably needing the run after 15 weeks off the track.

To date, he's 3/5 on standard, 3/5 @ 5f, 3/5 going left handed, 3/4 in a hood and 3/3 within 30 days of his last run, so he's certainly got optimum conditions here.

The Andrew Balding / David Probert / Lingfield AW handicap angle is a good one, as since 2009 with runners priced at 14/1 or shorter, they are 12/60 (20% SR) for 14.2pts (+23.6% ROI) profit, including...

  • 3-5 yr olds : 12/53 (22.6%) for 21.2pts (+40%)
  • 6-30 days since last run : 8/39 (20.5%) for 12.2pts (+31.3%)
  • and at Class 4 : 4/13 (30.8%) for 22.9pts (+175.8%)

In addition to the above, there's another angle suggesting a good run today, as since 2008, Andrew Balding / Class 4&5 handicappers / only 1 previous run in the past 90 days = 52/290 (17.9% SR) for 118.7pts (+40.9% ROI), with the following of interest/relevance...

  • 6-30 dslr : 42/206 (20.4%) for 140.7pts (+68.3%)
  • on the A/W : 21/109 (19.3%) for 31.5pts (+28.9%)
  • 4 yr olds are 16/70 (22.9%) for 46.1pts (+65.8%)
  • at Lingfield : 10/39 (25.6%) for 24.1pts (+61.9%)
  • and over the minimum 5f trip : 3/10 (30%) for 2.23pts (+22.3%)

...so for Saturday...a 1pt win bet on Verne Castle @ 9/2 BOG which was pretty widely available at 7.00pm on Friday To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

SotD, Monday 31st August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 31st August 2015

Jockey Joe Doyle and horse Tom Sawyer did absolutely nothing wrong at Beverley and looked to have timed their run to the line to perfection, but we were all undone by a flying finisher who pipped us in the shadow of the post.

There's something reassuring about backing a 4/1 runner-up at 7/1 BOG and coming within a neck of pulling off a bit of a gamble, but near misses don't pay cash! August (and Mondays in particular) has been good to us and whatever happens today, we'll finish with a handsome profit from the month.

I would, however, like to bow out with one more winner via the...

4.45 Epsom :

But before I give you the selection, a quick update on my schedule that you might find useful. As you know I'm away on holiday at present, but I've now a daily routine established.

If SotD isn't now posted between 6.30pm & 7.00pm in the evening, it will appear between 8.30am & 9.00am on the day of the race. There are also instant notifications on our Facebook page / Twitter feed.

And a 5/2 BOG bet on Passover in this 8-runner, Class 3 handicap over 1m2f on soft ground with a horse in great form of late.

In the last 7 seasons, trainer Andrew Balding is 30/163 (18.4% SR) for 107pts (+65.7% ROI) profit here at Epsom. From that record, jockey David Probert is 13/64 (20.3% SR) for 33.7pts (+52.6% ROI)

Passover is 3/5 on the Flat, but 3 from 3 since stepping up to today's 1m2f trip and was a course and distance winner by 7 lengths here two starts ago and won by the same margin at Sandown last time out, 25 days ago.

In the last 3 seasons, Andrew Balding's runners returning to the scene of a course and distance win off the back of a win (anywhere) last time out are 12/28 (42.9% SR) for 25.4pts (+90.7% ROI).

Those runners running at the same trip as last time are 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 24.6pts (+91.2% ROI) with those priced below 7/2 winning 9 of 17 (52.9% SR) for 8.4pts (+49.4% ROI).

All 3 wins for Passover to date share many of the factors that will be at play today, namely...

  • all over 1m2f
  • all in races of 7 to 11 runners
  • all within 30 days of his last run
  • all wearing a hood
  • all wearing a tongue tie
  • and all below 7/2

I've taken my 5/2 BOG about Passover from Coral, as they'll refund a defeat by a head, but with several other firms offering the same price, you should...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

SotD, Monday 17th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th August 2015

No winner on Saturday to cap another fine week, I'm afraid, but certainly no complaints about the run we got for our money at Newbury either.

Pin Up was sent off as 9/4 favourite, having been well supported from my advised 7/2 bet and I don't think he could have given us much more than he did, ably assisted by jockey Alyson Deniel.

The pair of them looked to have done everything in their power to land the race for us, but on the day, the winner was just too good for them. The presence of Serena Brotherton in the saddle no doubt helped there too.

I wasn't too downhearted really, Pin Up certainly ran his race and despite the loss we still made a handsome profit on the week, a feat I'd like to repeat this week too, starting with Monday's...

5.35 Windsor :

Where Betfair Sportsbook are offering 5/1 BOG about Andrew Balding's 2yr old filly, Dancing Star.

Andrew's record here at Windsor since 2009 is 34 winners from 180 (18.9% SR) for 50.1pts (+27.8% ROI). In maidens, he is 13/68 (19.1% SR) for 4.63pts (+6.81% ROI), whilst his 2 yr olds are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 19.96pts (+64.2% ROI)

Andrew Balding's 2yo maidens running at odds of 8/1 or shorter here at Windsor are 6/15 (40% SR) for 10.6pts (+70.7% ROI)

David Probert is in the saddle today and he rides the Balding maidens well, with 79 winners from 450 (17.6% SR) for 180.2pts (+40% ROI) profit and will look to improve those figures on Dancing Star who steps up in trip to 6f after showing some promise in defeat here at Windsor last time out.

That run was, in fairness, her debut and after taking a while to get going, was staying on really well in the closing stages, suggesting a longer trip would be better for her, a thought backed up in her breeding.

Nevertheless, it's interesting to note that Andrew Balding is very good at getting more from a horse on its second run, as since 2008, those horses trained by Andrew, whose second run is on the Flat after failing to make the frame and beaten by 2 to 10 lengths last time out is : 18/103 (17.5% SR) for 14.9pts (+14.5% ROI).

Of those 103 runners, 2yr olds are 15/69 (21.7% SR) for 39.2pts (+36.9% ROI), whilst those stepping up a furlong are 6/24 (25% SR) for 15.4pts (+64.2% ROI).

His 2yr olds stepping a furllong are 6/21 (28.6% SR) for 18.4pts at an ROI of 87.6% and all this hopefully points a good run from Dancing Star.

Betfair are the best price so far, but you can always...

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