Stat of the Day, 9th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 9th October 2015

The Dukkerer was very disappointing at Chelmsford on Thursday evening, it has to be said. I really thought we'd bought ourselves a real chance at a decent price, but I was wrong on both counts!

The market didn't like the horse's chances and she was eventually sent off at 7/1, a full point longer than advised and then ran a strange sort of race, travelling wide before a short unsustained effort before making a hasty retreat to the back of the pack.

In the end, she was last home of 11 and beaten by the thick end of 10 lengths and having looked weary in the closing stages of a 10 furlong, perhaps she now needs a rest after 33 races in 26 months.

Back to the jumps we go on Friday, for the...

4.05 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

And a 5/1 BOG bet with the Betfair Sportsbook on Amour D'Or, a 4yr old filly making her handicap debut in a Class 4 hurdle over 2m 5.5f on what will be just her 8th run to date. She was last seen in the UK finishing second at Worcester almost 16 weeks ago, but has been over to France for one race, where she won over hurdles by 10 lengths at Lion D'Angers eight weeks ago.

She is trained by Nick Williams and as I pointed out last Saturday, he does very well with horses running in what I term the "winter season" ie October to April, aged 4 to 7 with less than 10 runs under their belt and since 2009, such horses have won 80 of 410 (19.5% SR) races for level stakes profits of 180.3pts at an ROI of 44%, including, of course, Saturday's excellent 6/1 winner.

I'm not ashamed to use the same headline stat twice inside a week, especially when it's as solid as this one, but this is a different race and will have some other angles to explore. I'd be backing this horse today anyway, regardless of it being the SotD horse, purely on the above figures, but with the actual race in mind, I've got no less than a dozen profitable criteria that this selection meets!

So, in descending order of sample size derived from the 410 runners above, let's go!

  1. Hurdlers are 46/248 (18.6% SR) for 94.5pts (+38.1% ROI)
  2. In 4yo+ races, they are 48/237 (20.3% SR) for 132.2pts (+55.8% ROI)
  3. Handicappers are 36/188 (19.2% SR) for 79.4pts (+42.2% ROI)
  4. Those running after a break of 4 to 16 weeks are 38/180 (21.12% SR) for 81.1pts (+45.1% ROI)
  5. At trips of 2m3f to 2m6f : 34/152 (22.4% SR) for 85.1pts (+56% ROI)
  6. At Class 4 : 38/142 (26.8% SR) for 136.5pts (+96.2% ROI)
  7. 4 yr olds are 20/128 (15.6% SR)for 61.7pts (+48.2% ROI)
  8. LTO winners are 22/84 (26.2% SR) for 31.8pts (+37.9% ROI)
  9. Female runners are 10/47 (21.3% SR) for 36.5pts (+77.6% ROI)
  10. Handicap debutants are 10/43 (23.3% SR) for 36.5pts (+84.9% ROI)
  11. Those ridden by Lizzie Kelly are 14/39 (35.9% SR) for 119.4pts (+306.3% ROI)
  12. In female only races, they are 7/32 (21.9% SR) for 35.5pts (+110.8% ROI)

I could probably go on (and on and on etc), but I think there's probably about enough numbers there. The figures are solid and aren't reliant upon each other ie you could take any of the above strands and it would be viable as a micro in its own right, but I'll leave you with another of my "composites"...

Nick Williams / Class 2 to 4 / 4yo+ hurdles / Oct-Apr / 2009-15 / Aged 4 to 6 / less than 10 runs for Nick / Top4 finish LTO 11 to 60 days ago are 14/42 (33.33% SR) for 69.7pts (+165.9% ROI) with females winning 6 of 12 (50% SR) for 30.9pts at an ROI of 257.4%

The 5/1 BOG  from Betfair's Sportsbook is currently the standout price for Amour D'Or with all other firms offering 9/2 BOG. You can see if that's still the case, when you...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Newton Abbot

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Here is today's racecard.

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