Tuesday's Result :
1.45 Huntingdon : Copperfacejack @ 7/2 BOG - non-runner (Vets Cert : Pulled Shoe Off)
Wednesday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Viva Steve @ 11/4 BOG
In the last 30 days, trainer Fergal O'Brien's runners are 8/25 (325 SR) for 54.6pts (+218.4% ROI), from which today's jockey Paddy Brennan is 6 from 17 (35.3%) for 43pts (+253%) and the O'Brien chasers are 3/10 (30%) for 15.3pts (+153%).
Jockey Paddy Brennan is riding well independently too with 11 winners from36 (30.6% SR) for 58.4pts (+162.1% ROI) over the last month with 5 wins from 22 (22.7%) over fences generating level stakes profits of 10.24pts at a return of 46.5%.
Viva Steve already has 20 races under his belt, but now returns from a break of 200 days to make a debut for the O'Brien yards and since 2008, Fergal's record with experienced horses running for the first time for him is decent enough with 12 winners from 97 (12.4% SR) for 80.4pts (+82.9% ROI) profit, including...
- handicappers are 6/45 (13.3%) for 36.3pts (+80.6%)
- those returning from a break of 3 to 7 months are 5/29 (17.2%) for 68.9pts (+237.7%)
- chasers are 6/23 (26.1%) for 48.8pts (+212.3%)
- those priced at 3/1 and shorter are 4/10 (40%) for 3.67pts (+36.7%)
- Class 3 runners are 3/10 (30%) for 64.73pts (+647.3%)
In addition to the above, I'm mildly intrigued at Fergal sending this horse on a 700-mile round trip today, when Exeter also has racing and is a 250-mile round trip from the O'Brien yard in Gloucestershire, so I did a litle digging and I found that since 2012 in winter (Oct-Mar) NH races, Fergal o'briens runners making a round trip of 450 miles or more won 5 of 24 races (20.8% SR) for 4.23pts (+17.6% ROI) profit.
Of these travellers, those running at Class 3 or lower are 5/20 (25%) for 8.23pts (+41.2%) and those priced at 15/2 and shorter are 5/16 (31.25%) for 12.23pts (+76.4%), whilst those priced at 15/2 and shorter at Classes 3 to 6 are 5/15 (33.3%) for 13.23pts at an ROI of 88.2%...
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