Stat of the Day, 9th November 2016

Tuesday's Result :

1.45 Huntingdon : Copperfacejack @ 7/2 BOG - non-runner (Vets Cert : Pulled Shoe Off)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

1.40 Ayr

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Viva Steve @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

In the last 30 days, trainer Fergal O'Brien's runners are 8/25 (325 SR) for 54.6pts (+218.4% ROI), from which today's jockey Paddy Brennan is 6 from 17 (35.3%) for 43pts (+253%) and the O'Brien chasers are 3/10 (30%) for 15.3pts (+153%).

Jockey Paddy Brennan is riding well independently too with 11 winners from36 (30.6% SR) for 58.4pts (+162.1% ROI) over the last month with 5 wins from 22 (22.7%) over fences generating level stakes profits of 10.24pts at a return of 46.5%.

Viva Steve already has 20 races under his belt, but now returns from a break of 200 days to make a debut for the O'Brien yards and since 2008, Fergal's record with experienced horses running for the first time for him is decent enough with 12 winners from 97 (12.4% SR) for 80.4pts (+82.9% ROI) profit, including...

  • handicappers are 6/45 (13.3%) for 36.3pts (+80.6%)
  • those returning from a break of 3 to 7 months are 5/29 (17.2%) for 68.9pts (+237.7%)
  • chasers are 6/23 (26.1%) for 48.8pts (+212.3%)
  • those priced at 3/1 and shorter are 4/10 (40%) for 3.67pts (+36.7%)
  • Class 3 runners are 3/10 (30%) for 64.73pts (+647.3%)

In addition to the above, I'm mildly intrigued at Fergal sending this horse on a 700-mile round trip today, when Exeter also has racing and is a 250-mile round trip from the O'Brien yard in Gloucestershire, so I did a litle digging and I found that since 2012 in winter (Oct-Mar) NH races, Fergal o'briens runners making a round trip of 450 miles or more won 5 of 24 races (20.8% SR) for 4.23pts (+17.6% ROI) profit.

Of these travellers, those running at Class 3 or lower are 5/20 (25%) for 8.23pts (+41.2%) and those priced at 15/2 and shorter are 5/16 (31.25%) for 12.23pts (+76.4%), whilst those priced at 15/2 and shorter at Classes 3 to 6 are 5/15 (33.3%) for 13.23pts at an ROI of 88.2%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Viva Steve at 11/4 BOG, from Betfair Sports, whilst there was plenty of 5/2 BOG elsewhere at 7.30pm on Tuesday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

6 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 9th November 2016

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Saturday afternoon, I was sat by a pool drinking in 30 degree heat.
      Today, I look out of my window and see several inches of snow.

      Other than that, it’s great to be back, especially with an early winner to warm the cockles.

  1. winderman

    Well done Chris, I too am happy your back. you selections invariably get very well backed. Except one I remember Seyshellios advised at 11/2’sh Won 12/1.
    Two weeks to my hols, hopefully 30 degrees too. and I’ll still be following.

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