Stat of the Day, 9th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 9th November 2015

Saturday's Result :

2.55 Doncaster : Blue Waltz @ 5/1 BOG : 7th of 12 at 13/2 (Raced wide towards rear, headway over 2f out, soon ridden, weakened final furlong)

Monday's selection runs in the...

2.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Lamps @ 5/2 BOG


His trainer, Michael Blake, doesn't come to Southwell too often, but since the start of 2014 has had four winners from the 10 horses he has sent here with the 40% strike rate yielding 6.5pts (+65% ROI) profit to date. His hurdlers are 3 from 7 (42.9% SR) for 6.12pts (+87.4% ROI), of which he is 2 from 2 in claimers, both by Lamps and both ridden by today's jockey Nick Schofield, including a win in this very race last year off the same mark as today.

The jockey, Nick Schofield's record in jumps races here at Southwell is decent with 12 wins from 55 (21.8% SR) since the start of 2008 producing profits of 8.92pts at an ROI of 16.2%, from which he is...

  • 8/36 (22.2% SR) for 7.7pts (+21.4% ROI) over hurdles
  • 5/20 (25% SR) for 10.75pts (+53.75% ROI) over trips of 3m/3m0.5f
  • 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 4.12pts (+45.8% ROI) for Michael Blake
  • 3/4 (75% SR) for 7.13pts (+178.3% ROI) in claimers

Nick is 5/17 (29.4% SR) in 3m/3m0.5f hurdle races here for profits of 13.75pts (+80.9% SR), of which he's 2/3 in claimers for 5.14pts, including that win in this race last year aboard Lamps.

Lamps, himself, seems to be well suited by today's conditions and has a decent record of 6 wins from 22 starts over hurdles and of note today are the facts, that over hurdles, he is...

  • 4/9 in non-handicaps, 3/8 with Nick Schofield, 5/7 at odds of 13/8 to 9/2
  • 4 from 4 at Class 5, 2/4 on good to soft with 2 wins on soft, 2/3 after a break of 6 to 9 months
  • 2/2 here, inc last yr's C&D win, 2/2 in claimers and 1/1 at this trip.

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Lamps at 5/2 BOG with either of Bet365, Betfred, Ladbrokes and/or Totesport but the last three don't go BOG until the morning. Therefore, I'm using Bet365 today, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering... here for the betting on the 2.00 Southwell

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Here is today's racecard.

16 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 9th November 2015

  1. Chris Worrall Post author

    I’ve amended the above to reflect a recent change in the BOG terms offered by Betfred/Totesport, who now only go BOG at 8.00am on race day.
    Many thanks to Mark for pointing this out.


  2. Everyone calls me Paul

    Apparently Hills making a gesture and refunding as a free bet if anyone on with them. I was lucky enough to hear (on WH radio) that Michael Blake was not at all confident that he would jump off, and that’s why I cashed out. Should have been withdrawn as he clearly wasn’t going to jump in the end.

  3. Mike Adams

    I have a 100 free bet from William Hill (Fair Play bet) so fair play to them. I dont get concessions from #Paddy Pointless anyway, Chris saw to that a while back

  4. Blueeyes

    Fortunately I was with Paddy Power and received full refund as freebet.
    If anyone was to refund it should have been the jockey, not the poor Bookie, as it was pretty clear that the horse had no intention of running.
    Thank you Paddy.

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