Stat of the Day, 9th July 2014
As suggested yesterday, Cool Baranca was indeed overpriced at 11/2 in what I said was a competitive contest and she didn't really do anything wrong, other than maybe a bit of a scruffy jump at the last. Emma Sayer seemed to have timed the run in perfectly but was just undone by a 14/1 outsider at the death, eventually finishing second at 7/2, going down by a length.
Defeats like that are actually quite encouraging, as it shows we're on the right track and we got the value from the selection. Consistently beating SP is the long-term route to profitability and I now aim to find some value in Wednesday's...
Where Martin Harley will ride Marco Botti's handicap debutant Bella Varenna in this Class 5 contest over 1m4f on the All-Weather.
Whilst not ripping up any trees of late, the Botti string are doing well enough with 3 winners and 4 placers from just 13 runners in the last 5 days, whilst jockey Martin Harley has been in the thick of things of late, winning nine times from 41 rides in the last fortnight, with 21 of the 41 making the frame.
The Harley/Botti partnership has performed well in handicap races in the past with a 23/99 (23.2% SR) record with all such runners priced at 10/1 or shorter. This in turn has produced 27.7pts (+28% ROI) profit and is a good starting point for the other stats I'm using to back up the selection today.
Today is Bella Varenna's handicap debut after a couple of maiden outings last autumn, before reappearing at Doncaster 12 days ago off the back of a seven month break. The tactic of giving her a handicap debut on the A/W is one used by Marco Botti to good effect over the years, as since 2008 he has employed this tactic on 94 occasions, racking up a 24.5% strike rate via 23 winners at Classes 4 and 5, which have in turn, generated 39.6pts profit at an ROI of 42.1%.
More recently ie since 2011, the figures are even better, suggesting that this is a strong trend that isn't relying on historical data. The actual results since 2011 read as 17 winners from 61 (27.9% SR) for 30.6pts (+50.1% ROI) profit.
These are encouraging figures, but even more if we look at what has happened in the past when the money has been down for them. If we ignore the short priced runners that we wouldn't normally back and also dispense with the longshots we have, since 2008, 14 winners from 48 (29.2% SR) when sent off in the 5/2 to 11/1 range and the 59.7pts profit from these runners equates to some 124.4% of stakes invested.
This will also be Bella Varenna's first outing on the All-Weather and Marco Botti has a good record when switching horses from turf to A/W for the first time, especially whilst the Turf Flat season is in progress. I have found that since 2009, his optimum time for switching them over is the March to November period and in that time frame, his record with runners priced between 6/4 and 16/1 is 12 winners from 67 runners (17.9% SR) for 18.8pts (+28.1% ROI) profit.
The switch to the all-weather is always a risk, but the yard has shown it works for them, especially to give the horse a handicap debut. Both the jockey, the trainer and jockey/trainer partnership are successful and there was enough promise shown on Bella Varenna's last outing to suggest she'll be winning races soon.
She was 4th at Doncaster almost a fortnight ago in what was her first effort in seven months and although she looked a little outpaced at times, she stuck to the task in hand and stayed on well enough, despite looking like she wanted/needed further. She's up in trip by another 1.5 furlongs here and I'd expect that will be more to her liking.
She looks overpriced at the 13/2 BOG offered by BetVictor and I can understand if there's a case for going E/W on her, especially with the recent excellent place strike rates achieved by both jockey and trainer, but I'm not generally one for shrinking away from a longer priced selection, so it's a 1pt win bet on Bella Varenna for me and I've taken that 13/2 BOG from BetVictor, but I don't expect her to run anywhere near that price.
The best way, of course, to keep in touch with the market, is to...
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