Stat of the Day, 9th January 2018

Monday's Result :

2.30 Hereford : Steel Native @ 4/1 BOG non-runner meeting abandoned (frozen)....

Next up is Tuesday's...

1.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

London @ 7/1 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap over 1m on Fibresand worth £7,561 to the winner...

Why?

Well, on first inspection, I marked this down as a fairly open but mediocre contest that shouldn't take much winning and at 7/1, London looked a good couple of points too long (in my opinion, of course!)

He ran very well in a higher grade (C2) two starts ago when going down by a couple of lengths at Chelmsford and despite not faring as well in that grade last time out, having to race wide at Lingfield makes nobody's day any better!

Down in class, he has a decent draw and looks likely to be setting the pace on a track that rewards front runners (the pace tab on your Geegeez racecard will confirm this) and with Nicola Currie taking 5lbs off, he should be competitive at the very worst.

Speaking of that jockey claim, trainer Phil McEntee's A/W handicappers ridden by 5lb claimers are 11/58 (19% SR) for 95.77pts (+165.1% ROI) over the last three years, including of relevance today...

  • males are 10/49 (20.4%) for 88.4pts (+180.3%)
  • over trips of 6f to 1m : 11/41 (26.8%) for 112.77pts (+275%)
  • 4-15 days since last run : 7/27 (25.9%) for 89.93pts (+333.1%)
  • 5 yr olds are 6/17 (35.3%) for 89.9pts (+529%)

London has only raced once here before in his 22 career starts, but I'd imagine that as time goes by, he should get used to the surface with him being a son of Galileo, whose offspring are 20/146 (13.7% SR) for 29.1pts (+19.9% ROI) over a mile on the A/W since 2012, whilst since 2010 those running over this track & trip are 4/11 (36.4%) for 3.1pts (+28.2%), including 2 winners from 3 (66.6%) for 2.69pts (+89.5%) last year.

...pointing to...... a 1pt win bet on London @ 7/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfair, BetVictor and SkyBet at 6.15pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

9 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 9th January 2018

  1. bernard

    Had a couple of hefty bets at Donny that drifted and never in with a shout. Nothing comes near Stat of Day but unfortunately dont put on more t!han £20 per selection to try to maintain some accounts without restrictions or closures. Thanks Chris and all the team at Geegee

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