Stat of the Day, 9th January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th January 2015

Medieval Chapel was by no means disgraced on both his handicapping and chasing debut at Leicester and he'll certainly come on for having had the run. He was well backed (11/4 fav from our advised 4/1), so we'd got the value price, but not the win, as we had to settle for third place, beaten by around 8 lengths after tiring/weakening late on.

We approach the weekend still looking for a first winner of the week (we did lose two days, though!) and our quest now takes us to the...

3.05 Huntingdon:

Where it's a family affair with Joshua Moore riding the 100/30 BOG priced Gores Island for his father Gary in this Class 3 Handicap chase over 2m 4.5f on soft ground with the prospect of more rain in the air.

Gary Moore has a good record here at Huntingdon...

Since 2008, he has had 23 winners from just 150 runners, a 15.3% record yielding 46.8pts prfotis from 1pt level stakes at an ROI of 31.2%. In handicaps he is 14/84 (16.7% SR) for 39.9pts (+47.5% ROI) and his chasers have won 9 from 51 (17.7% SR) for 19.4pts (+38% ROI).

He's only had 32 handicap chasers here at this track, but a 15.6% strike rate via 5 winners is respectable, as are the 20.6pts profits at an ROI of 64.3%. And his three such runners last year (2014) finished 211.

Gores Island was a winner just 4 days ago...

And since 2008, chasers turned back out within 5 days of a win have won 106 of 298 (35.6% SR) races for level stakes profits of 100.5pts (+33.7% ROI) with those in the 2/1 to 9/12 price band winning 42 of 142 (29.6% SR) for 66.3pts (+46.7% ROI)

And more specifically to our trainer...

Gary Moore's chasers who won last time out followed up with another win in 35 of 101 (34.7% SR) attempts since 2008. These winners have produced 70.3pts profit at an ROI of 69.6% with Joshua Moore riding 6 winners from 24 (25% SR) for 12.4pts (+51.6% ROI) profit

Those sent off at 8/1 or shorter were victorious 33 times from 80 (41.25% SR) for 62.2pts (+77.8% ROI) profit and from those 80 runners, jockey Joshua's contribution was 6 winners from 17 (35.3% SR) for 19.4pts (+114.1% ROI) profit.

Gores Island now steps back up in class...

Since 2008, Gary has had 134 chasers making a realistic step (ie 1 grade) up in class and the 24 winning runners provides a very healthy 17.9% strike rate and attractive level stakes profits of 45.5pts or 33.9% of stakes. Joshua's own record on these runners is 5 wins from 30 (16.7% SR) for 9.8pts (+32.6% ROI)

Those stepping up to today's Class 3 level have won 16 out of 66 races (24.2%SR) for profits of 54.3pts (+82.2% ROI) with Joshua riding 4 winners from 12 (33.3% SR) for 19.9pts (+166.1% ROI).

As for Gores Island in relation to this race...

He has won twice in Class 3 company and his last 6 runs at this level have finished 132213. He's 3 from 10 since moving to the Moore yard, has a good record in smaller fields and has won two and placed in two from five January runs in his career.

He's equally at home right handed or left handed and won't mind the softness of the ground, he has won on heavy ground in the past and also has wins at both 2m4f and 2m5f.

It's a competitive enough race for sure, but Gores Island is bang in form (131 in his last three outings with the defeat coming after a 6 month break), he gets on well with jockey Joshua (1322F1 and was clear when falling 2 from home) and there's enough in the stats to warrant the selection.

So the play for Friday is a 1pt win bet on Gores Island at 100/30 BOG with either Boylesports or Paddy Power and you can take your pick, right after you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.05 Huntingdon

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