Stat of the Day, 9th February 2016

Monday's Result :

4.40 Wolverhampton : Seychelloise @ 100/30 BOG 5th at 4/1 (Tracked leader, ridden 2f out, faded inside final furlong)

Tuesday's runner goes in the...

2.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

With Hindsight @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

Since the start of 2011, trainer Steve Gollings has a record of 19 wins from 95 runners (20% SR), all males, who have generated level stakes profits of 70.7pts, a figure equivalent to some 74.4% of all stakes invested. These 95 runners can be analysed, with today's race in mind, as follows...

  • handicappers are 17/85 (20% SR) for 74.6pts (+87.7% ROI)
  • those carrying 8-12 to 9-11 are 17/81 (21% SR) for 77.1pts (+95.1% ROI)
  • those priced at 2/1 to 17/2 are 15/63 (23.8% SR) for 34.6pts (+54.9% ROI)
  • those racing over trips of 10 to 14 furlongs are 12/51 (23.5% SR) for 69.2pts (+135.7% ROI)
  • those last seen 6 to 20 days ago are 10/40 (25% SR) for 21.2pts (+53.1% ROI)
  • those beaten by less than three lengths last time out are 7/24 (29.2% SR) for 24.4pts (+101.6% ROI)

In addition to the above trainer-specific stats, since the start of 2010 in Class 5 races here on the A/W at Southwell, top-rated (OR) males aged 3 to 10 priced at 7/1 and shorter, whose last run was in a handicap, have won 88 of 279 races (31.5% SR) for 47.2pts (+16.9% ROI) profit. Once again, with this race in mind, those 279 runners are...

  • 67 from 215 (31.2% SR) for 52.4pts (+24.4% ROI) when allotted weight of 9-4 to 9-13
  • 69 from 214 (32.2% SR) for 55.9pts (+26.1% ROI) 6 to 45 days after their last run
  • 50 from 149 (33.6% SR) for 43.6pts (+29.2% ROI) over trips of 1 to 1.5 miles
  • 30 from 92 (32.6% SR) for 43.2pts (+47% ROI) at the ages of 6 to 10
  • 31 from 87 (35.6% SR) for 29.6pts (+34% ROI) from those beaten by less than 4 lengths last time out
  • 6 from 22 (27.3% SR) for 7.4pts (+33.6% ROI) when ridden by a jockey claiming a 5lb allowance.

And my recommended bet, based on the above data and prices available at 6.00pm is...

A 1pt bet on With Hindsight and that's at 5/1 BOG in several places, so to pick your preferred bookie...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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