Tuesday's Result :
2.45 Southwell : With Hindsight @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Led 2f, tracked leaders, chased winner over 4f out, ridden over 3f out, stayed on under pressure inside final furlong, gaining close home, but beaten by 0.75L)
Wednesday's runner goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Captain Redbeard @ 11/4 BOG
This 7 yr old gelding was last seen winning comfortably by 8 lengths 10 days ago and since the start of 2012, male handicap hurdlers running 3 to 60 days after a win by 4 lengths or more in a handicap hurdle last time out are 279 from 1078 (25.9% SR) for 228pts (+21.2% ROI) profit. Of those runners, those priced shorter than 12/1 are 273/951 (28.7% SR) for 227pts at an ROI of 23.9% and we can break those 951 runners down as follows to fit today's race conditions...
- 5 to 11 yr olds are 264/908 (29.1% SR) for 232.9pts (+25.6% ROI)
- those last seen 4 to 25 days ago are 222/691 (32.1% SR) for 236pts (+34.2% ROI)
- those who won by 5 to 15 lengths LTO are 180/596 (30.2% SR) for 204.3pts (+34.3% ROI)
- Class 4 runners are 110/331 (33.2% SR) for 99.3pts (+30% ROI)
And from the above, 5 to 11 yr olds in Class 4/5 races 4 to 25 days after a win by 5 to 15 lengths last time out are 121/305 (39.7% SR) for 150.5pts (+49.4% ROI), of which heavy ground races have yielded 20 winners from 34 (58.8% SR) for 24.4pts (+71.9% ROI)
Captain Redbeard is trained by Stuart Coltherd and since the start of 2011, his NH handicappers in the 15/8 to 11/1 price range are 37/189 (19.6% SR) for 70.5pts (+37.3% ROI), and with today's conditions firmly in mind, those 189 runners are...
- 29/137 (21.2% SR) as 5 to 9 yr olds for profits of 72.8pts at an ROI of 53.1%
- 29/136 (21.3% SR) over 2m to 2m 5.5f for 79pts (+58.1% ROI)
- 26/118 (22% SR) 6 to 30 days since their last run for 74.2pts (+62.9% ROI)
- 18/91 (19.8% SR) in Class 4 races for 39.5pts (+43.4% ROI)
- 8/44 (18.2% SR) on heavy ground for 14.6pts (+33.2% ROI)
- 9/18 (50% SR) ridden by James Reveley for 33.9pts (+188.3% ROI)
- 3/16 (18.75% SR) for 14.3pts (+37.3% ROI) here at Carlisle.
From my figures, I can tell you that Stuart Coltherd's NH handicappers priced at 15/8 to 11/1, aged 5 to 11 yrs old, running at Classes 3 to 5 over 2m to 2m 5.5f, 4 to 30 days since their last run are 22/85 (25.9% SR) for profits of 84.4pts at an ROI of 99.3%.
Plus, of those 85 runners, those running on heavy ground are 5/19 (26.3% SR) for 21.3pts (+112.2% ROI), those ridden by James Reveley are 4/6 (66.7% SR) for 20.34pts (+339.1% ROI) and those racing here at Carlisle are 2 from 6 (33.33% SR) for 11.94pts (+199% ROI).
And my recommended bet, based on the above data and prices available at 7.15pm is...
A 1pt bet on Captain Redbeard and that's at 11/4 BOG with Bet365, BetVictor, Hills and/or Paddy Power, so to pick your preferred bookie...
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