Stat of the Day, 9th December 2015
Tuesday's Result :
1.10 Fontwell : Zero Visibility @ 11/4 BOG fell at 11/8 (Sometimes jumped rght, led, hit 10th, clear before 3 out, pecked on landing next, well in front when fell last fence)
Wednesday's selection runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Chicoria @ 3/1 BOG
Over the last five years, Henry Daly's low-grade (ie classes 4 to 6) chasers are 37 from 146 (25.3% SR) for 41.1pts (+28.1% ROI) profit and those figures alone are of suitable merit to worthy a bet today. However, SotD wouldn't be SotD if I didn't drill down into those figures to find a stack of angles for you, would it?
So, from the 146 runners, I've got a baker's dozen of logical subsets of data for you...
- those priced at 12/1 and shorter are 37/132 (28% SR) for 56.1pts (+42.5% ROI)
- male runners are 34/127 (26.8% SR) for 34.4pts (+27.1% ROI)
- class 4 runners are 30/121 (24.8% SR) for 43.5pts (+35.9% ROI)
- those who last ran 11 to 60 days ago : 27/99 (27.3% SR) for 34pts (+34.3% ROI)
- 6 to 8 yr olds are 26/99 (26.3% SR) for 21.5pts (+21.7% ROI)
- those in the top 4 LTO : 27/83 (32.5% SR) for 48.6pts (+58.6% ROI)
- in novice chases : 12/46 (26.1% SR) for 24.3pts (+52.9% ROI)
- on good to soft ground : 12/42 (28.6% SR) for 23.5pts (+56.1% ROI)
- ridden by Richard Johnson : 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 9.8pts (+28% ROI)
- in novice hcp chases : 8/29 (27.6% SR) for 16.5pts (+56.8% ROI)
- over 2m4f : 7/16 (43.8% SR) for 16.4pts (+102.5% ROI)
- ran 11 to 20 days ago : 7/16 (43.8% SR) for 14.8pts (+92.4% ROI)
- won last time out : 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 12.4pts (+82.8% ROI)
Richard Johnson was in the saddle for Chicoria's last outing where the 6yr old gelding defied a break of 218 days to win a 2m 5.5f soft ground novice handicap chase at Market Rasen 20 days ago on his chasing debut and should come on for the experience and for having had the run and his chances here are boosted by the following facts...
- handicap chasers rated (OR) 96 to 122 who were winners of a novice chase last time out in the previous 4 to 45 days are 119/466 (25.5% SR) for 85.8pts (+18.4% ROI) over the past 5 years, of which those winning a novice handicap chase last time are 108/405 (26.7% SR) for 98.5pts (+24.3% ROI).
- and since the start of 2010, male class 3/4 chasers aged 6 to 9 yrs old who were winners of a hcp chase by 2 to 10 lengths LTO 11 to 150 days earlier are 222/950 (23.4% SR) for 193.2pts (+20.3% ROI)
And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 7.20pm?
A 1pt win bet on Chicoria @ 3/1 BOG, a price offered by BetVictor, Coral and Betway, but the latter don't go BOG until 10.00am. I'm going with Coral, because they'll give me my money back should this one also fall, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...
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