Stat of the Day, 9th December 2013
Sunday was a good day for both Donald McCain and SotD. Mr McCain improved his already impressive recent record at Kelso with two third place finishes and then two winners at 4/1 and 15/8.
Thankfully, not only were we on the longer priced of the two winners, but we'd actually taken 9/2 about Kruzhlinin who defied top weight to fairly coast home to win by 5 lengths without being overly exerted.
He could and should win again soon and hopefully we'll follow suit today in the...
Where I've a bit of a mini stat pack to support the 5/1 BOG bet I've just placed with Bet365 on David O'Meara's Cape of Hope.
This is, however, this horse's first run for David after recently completing a move from the Chapple-Hyam yard, but we can take heart from Mr O'Meara's record with horses coming from other yards, because...
Horses with 5 or more previous runs to their name now making their debut for David O'Meara at odds of 12/1 or under have won 21 out of 85 of those yard debuts. The strike rate there is 24.7% with a level stakes profit of 53.6pts, or 63.1% of stakes: a good starting point.
I've also got some stats/characteristics relating to the race itself and more specifically Class 5 contests here at Wolverhampton. 3 yr old males who are top rated (OR) and running at the same class or down a class from last time around go really well. When these horses have been sent off at 6/1 or under, they have won 28 out of 77 races from 2011/13.
28/77 is a 36.4% strike rate and the 46.8pts level stakes profits generated are the equivalent of a 60.8% return on your money.
Another stat relating to Wolverhampton Class 5 races revolves around horses coming here in decent nick, but who haven't quite been winning. I'm talking about horses finishing 2nd or 3rd in each of their last three outings and these horses have won 17 out of the 38 races this year alone in which they were priced at 6/1 or under. The strike rate here is an impressive 44.7% which has been responsible for a level stakes profit of 27.9pts and an ROI of 73.4%
Cape of Hope certainly fits the bill on all of the above criteria, his form this year reads 211233 and he runs off the same mark here as when he was 3rd here last time out, but he only went down by half a length and looks dangerous today and good value for his current odds. And the presence of David Bergin in the saddle to take 5lbs off the weight is sure to help him give another good account of himself.
All in all, I think there's plenty of value in a 1pt win bet at 5/1 BOG on Cape of Hope and I've gone with Bet365, but BetVictor are also at 5's, so the recommendation is that you...